Where will Penn State finish the season?

Ian — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:04:41 GMT

With the results of all of the major bowl games (except the championship) in the books, will Penn State finish the season in the Top 10?

In spite of their loss to USC in the Rose Bowl, I believe they will. Here's a brief look at the AP and Coaches Top 10 before Bowl Season:

AP: Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Southern Cal, Penn St, Utah, Texas Tech, Boise St, Ohio St
Coaches: Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, Southern Cal, Alabama, Penn St, Utah, Texas Tech, Boise St, Ohio St

The voters of the Coaches Poll are contractually obligated to vote for the winner of the Oklahoma/Florida game as national champion.

Since Alabama, Penn St, Texas Tech, Boise St and Ohio St all lost their bowl games, they will all likely drop in the rankings. In my opinion, the Top 5 is pretty much set:

1. Oklahoma/Florida winner (13-1)
2. Southern Cal (12-1)
3. Utah (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
5. Oklahoma/Florida loser (13-2)

But then things get interesting. Alabama (12-2) and Penn St (11-2) both lost their bowl games to Top 5 opponents. The next highest ranked team to win a bowl was #11 TCU (11-2) over previously undefeated Boise St. TCU's 2 losses were to Oklahoma and Utah. If Oklahoma wins the title, TCU may jump as high as 6. If Florida wins, TCU may only jump to 8. Either way, Alabama and Penn St (both with 2 losses) are likely to hold on to their Top 10 spots.

After TCU, the next highest ranked teams to win their bowl games were Oregon (10-3)(AP #15, Coaches #13), Georgia (10-3)(AP #16, Coaches #17), Ole Miss (9-4)(AP #20, Coaches #24), and Virginia Tech (10-4)(AP #21, Coaches #19). All five of these teams would have to jump Penn State for the Lions not to finish the season in the Top 10.

Even though Penn St lost, it is highly unlikely the AP or the Coaches will vault a 3- or 4-loss team that did not win their conference (except VT) over the Big 10 Champion Penn St.

Just for the fun of it, my post-season Top 10:

Florida/Oklahoma winner
Southern Cal
Utah
Texas
Florida/Oklahoma loser
TCU
Penn St
Alabama
Oregon
Georgia

Feel free to disagree and post your own!

What's your prediction for Penn State vs. Michigan?

PG Admin1 — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:09:47 GMT

Michigan has beaten Penn State in their last nine games. But this year, Penn State is ranked No. 3 (7-0), while Michigan is unranked (2-4) and coming off an embarrassing loss to Toledo [ read PG article ].

What is your prediction for Saturday's game vs. the Wolverines in Beaver Stadium?

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