Morning baseball talk, 11-9-09

I guess everyone is asleep

Hey, Maz! How 'bout some love for my Cowboys! Sorry 'bout your Packers today.

Bay - Good game for the Boys.The Pack got hit last Monday too and Iowa went down too.It has really sucked for 7 days now.

It's bad enough with the PBC and now my other teams let me down.I'm afraid to go out in a thunder storm. :-)

I looked at the comments from the Milwaukee paper about the Packers and after seeing a few...Hostage is a pussycat compared to the posters in the Milwaukee paper.Of course they might be still ticked off about the Brewers too.

Dejan-You look a lot like Jose Lind Pant's avatar. lol

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//   yawn   //

uhhh...here we go Steelers, here we go?

GO STEELERS...BEAT BRONCOS !!

Bay,  there have been numerous requests to keep the name of your football team off of here and there you went and did it again.  So you think you are a funny guy ?  Just so you know it would take a decade at the least for a complete turn around of both team to warrant any right to mention those hombres by name and then we still would not like it.

THE OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL PBC BLOGS AND MLB LINKS:

Bleacher Report--Why Jason Bay Might Be Worth $20 Million a Year, to the Right Team

bleacherreport.com/.../286429-why-jason-bay-might-be-worth-20-million-a-year-to-the-right-team

Sandlot Swashbucklers--AFL: Rising Stars — West Beats East

mvn.com/.../afl-rising-stars-west-beats-east.html

Sandlot Swashbucklers--Bixler Homers for Mazatlan

mvn.com/.../bixler-homers-for-mazatlan.html

The Green Weenie--#24  Daniel Moskos

oldbucs.blogspot.com/.../24-daniel-moskos.html

MLB Transactions

www.cbssports.com/.../transactions

Bucco Fans--Pittsburgh Pirates Top 50 Prospects: 20 - Ronald Uviedo

www.buccofans.com/.../pittsburgh-pirates-top-50-prospects-20.html

Pirate Winter League Stats

mlb.mlb.com/.../org.jsp

VOTE: This Year in Baseball Awards

mlb.mlb.com/.../index.jsp

JAL, I do not see Clement on any of the off season fact sheets and do not remember any talked of his off season plans so if there are none I would safe it o say that he is one of those that can be nailed to the wall as one of those whom the organization is not happey not playing somewheres.

Is he injured?  About his only excuse !

Bleacher report is painful to read.

Drew,  What that article faiils to mention is that we have two center fields to cover and you would have to have the Clutch and Mr. Morgan out there to cover the area that jason could not cover.

I think the only was Jason could have stayed a Pirate was as a first baseman.

What that article did reveal that has nbever been revealed around her was that nate said no to a position move.  It amy have been reported he did not wanto to do it but never these strong words about a refusal.

So which one was it?

Overall, I take the story as proof to need that the trade was needed to be done.

JJ - I think that Clemnets is over-rated at this point and yes, winter ball would certainly help his (our) situation. But I don't think you can simply jump to conclusions ("nailed to the wall") about his mind-set because he's not playing. Where's Tony Sanchez?

Key Lime pie,

Sanchez is in Fl. in soecial workouts, remember he played a very long schedule this past year so i think they have him on a conditioning plan.

My-Key

Sanchez is well needed rest--he went straight from college ball to minor league ball so he played 106 games last season, including catching 25 innings in one game.

JJ and maz--read Bleacher report.  All I'm going to say . . . maybe.  Oh, what the heck, you also might want to get the washcloths ready, to wipe the egg off.  MarkinDallas might want to read it too, but no washcloth required, just might find it interesting in its use of UZR's and WAR.

My Key lime pie, exactly about jeff  We need to find out.

JJ & JAL - so Sanchez is getting special rest in FL?

JJ, i'm picturing an OF of Jason, Nyjmo, Clutch, with N and C each taking more ground than typical, leaving a shorter field for J.  J isnt a bad fielder, he's a mobilely limited one.  Then Nate for Morton to improve pitching - and if it's true, displace someone who thinks they get to decide where they play - but more to improve pitching than that.  Low cost N and C pay for J, who at the time could have probably been signed for less than now.

i'm consistent with this.  as i said at the time, in general i thought the 08 dismantling was not only needed but obvious, however i would have preferred (and said it) PBC to try to sign Jason and do the other trades.  Now, at 15-20 Mil, Jason will be overpaid.  But then, two years earlier, 12 Mil?  I think that's fair.

That said, i'm not mooning over it.  of course in retrospect i'd have preferred a trade return that would deliver more, but that's 20/20.  Most of baseball thought we got a real payload at the time, as did i.  But Bay, Clutch, Nyjmo...PLUS Mortan in return for Nate?  Works for me.  Then eventual infield of Doumit, Legend, Iwwy, LaRoche-then-Pedro and i guess Cedeno, not a bad team.  I know, no certainty that Legend would have emerged if the outfield was completely plugged, but a fella's allowed to dream isnt he?

My Key

Not special rest, just rest from playing in games.

Arriba, where in the world do you tie me in with those stats, I have never entered a conversation in them, I do not even understnd them I know so little about them.

I have baseball dirt in my veins and that be my judge.

Check above I did read it.

Drew,  One miscue to your outfield plan, to play Jason far enough over to the left field line that he will not be able to reach second base with his lack of arm.

Think about you yourself picking the ball up from the left field line with your non throwing arm and trying to peg it to the bag and there you have it.

JJ-- I was not tying you into the stats.  

Key lime,  Think about it from this perspective regarding Sanchez's lack of game play at this time :  For four weeks or so in basic trainning the army is breaking your body down and then for the next three weeks it begins the rebuilding process.

The games as noted by JAL were the breaking down time on his body this past year and now they have him in Fl. to rebuild him himself under the close eye of conditioners.

Arriba, thanks just getting even for last night huh?

I like you I think enjoy what Mark and others conclude from their knowledge of use of stats but gloss over how they get there.

Arriba,  I think the article reveals that we really had no chance of keeping jason even with the plaenty of hope br the reporter and that is all he has to go on.

Could we have kept him longer, only with hindsight.  The plug I think had to be pulled it was just a matter of when to pull it.

I have doubts to weather he improves his worth in the field here.

If Maz comes around and is in the mood for some archive work he will prove that I suggested on numerous occassions to move jason to first base to keep him.

Arriba, ps, I think his arm is well enough to begin the traditional infield  post out around the horn toss.

JJ-no archive work needed. I take your word for it.  I read the article very differently, however.

ok here it is

www.youtube.com/watch

ARRIBA,  I gather from those mirror sunglasses you still have from the sixties.

JJ - understand.  i recognize there could be a few sad bouncers to 2nd.  i personally think the bat overcomes, especially with solid D from other two.  But one could make the argument that $12 M should buy you better D.  Of course Dodgers are paying $20 M for Manny.

Probably not worth our focus considering it's history or more accurately fantasy.  So my focus is the 3rd OF spot in 2010.

since i prefer Legend at 1B rather than OF...i'm buying your argument that defense counts...and i'm betting that Tabata won't be ready yet. soooo...if Legend is 1B, i prefer better than 4th-5th OFers (Moss, DY) as starters.  Free Agent anyone?  i know PBC is hoping for internal options (Clement at 1B, or Tabata in OF, or Pearce FINALLY figuring it out).  Problem is...if none of these happen, and i think each is a long shot, we will have missed window for FA signing.

Has anyone seen these weird pictures of Sammy Sosa?

www.huffingtonpost.com/.../sammy-sosas-skin-photos-p_n_349602.html

JJ--I think you are mixing me up with the silent boss from Cool Hand Luke, who shot Luke at the end.

Thanks Demecracy...forgot about Sosa.  He's available...our 3rd OFer??

kidding.  just KIDDING!

oh, and regarding the pictures...

eeewwwwww!!

on way to airport.

carry on.

I think the Bucs should pick up Sosa.

So what if his skin is changing?  Why do we care?  And for the paper to say it might be from steriods..please.  They must be owned by the National Enquirer.

Jason Bay is one of the worst fielding outfielders the Pirates ever had.  He gets terribel jumps on the ball. Way overrated.  He's worth about $6 million a year tops.  $20 millions?  Crazy.

While my earlier comments were just directed to the JBay portion of the Bleacher Report article, I found the following sentence interesting and, really, beyond reproach:

"Pirates' management has made a number of shrewd standalone trades. But I nevertheless fault them for not considering the systemic impact of those trades."

Drew,  I think you are spot on with your on spot evaluation of our situation.

Japanese reliever Ryota Igarashi planning to sign with a MLB team.

Moring mates, good tidings

How did the name of that football "team" get past the censors??

Regarding Clement, wasn't he supposed to be a Sept call-up, but was hurt?  Then I thought the game plan was for him to go down to Bradenton and work on first base stuff?  Wonder if he has a website that we could check, I'm pretty sure the internet police here at work would block it though.

Maz - Packers killed me in our block pool, pick one winner a week till you pick a loser then you are out.  I am now out.  Pack self-destructed, IMO of course

@JJ - "Just so you know it would take a decade at the least for a complete turn around of both team (Cowboys and Packers) to warrant any right to mention those hombres by name (America's Team) and then we still would not like it."

Have hope, JJ. Plenty of it. It's taking more than a decade with the Pirates, and we haven't given up on them :-)

Bay,,,   we have no hope for you and your cowpokes

                        Hear Ye Hear Ye Hear Ye

                        Gathering  Announcement

                          December 5 Noon Time

        The Double Wide Grille 2339 East Carson Street

                                 Special Guest

                                   Lou DePaoli

 Executive Vice President and Director Of Media Marketing

                               Pittsburgh Pirates

      Another limited space location RSVP seat required

                              tjfran@comcast.net

                        Accepting emailed question

Bay, well not for your cowpokes

Thanks, JJ! The feeling's mutual, I'm sure. (blushes)

AW -- I read the article in bleacher report, was curioius about how you took that phrase "systemic impact"?  Trading Bay before they knew what they had in Morgan seems like a stretch in expectations -- whether it was a true statement or false.  Or did the phrase have a larger more general context either in the realm of the individual trades were for better players, but created holes in the process; or something along the line of trading away favorites caused disruption in the clubhouse and loss of fan support.  On the surface it seems like a vague phrase to justify the speculation of what might have been.

And looking at what might have been -- a Bay, Morgan, McLouth outfield, keeping Bautista at third until Pedro arrives -- would probably be a step ahead of Milledge, McCutcheon, Tabata, with LaRoche at third until Pedro arrives.  Had any of Moss, Morris, or LaRoche matched projections the trade might have looked better -- but I wonder if after a couple of years a Morgan, McClouth, Tabata OF wouldn't have us wondering why we spent the big bucks to keep Bay.  

That's the thing about speculation, it's like what if Clemente had lived, or what if Kendall hadn't been injured, or what if Lind hadn't made the error, or what if Moose had thrown a strike -- we just never know how the alternative really would have worked out.  

Baseball moves are very difficult to judge, when they happened, what the team needed, financial situations,  how the players were playing when traded, need at a position, how they played after a trade, what did a team get for a player that was retraded all come into play when trying to judge the validity of a trade. However most don't want to go thru the progressions of trades to judge them, it comes down to people simple judging them player for player after the trade.

DK -

Enjoy your stay in Toronto. I love going to that city and always visit the Hockey Hall of Fame when I'm there. One cool thing about it is they rearrang stuff and add lost of new exhibits every few years.

Canton (Football HOF) never seems to change much except they reconfigured the room with the busts of the enshrinees a few years ago.

I have never been to Cooperstown.

Give my congratulations to Dave Molinari.

Leadoff -

>>it comes down to people simple judging them player for player after the trade<<

You hit on something I thought of frequently over the last two summers. In a case like the Pirates, one way of looking at the trades is whether the system improved from the trades, not just the major league team. The Pirates seem to be worse so far as W-L after all these trades. The organization could be seen as stronger due to better minor league players. But if those minor league players never pan out at the ML level, what's the verdict on the trades?

I guess this is more food for thought than an opinion.

This MLB Trade rumors on Bay

3.  Jason Bay - Red Sox.  It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay.  That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.

It sounds like 15 mil is only the opening bid.This could be interesting if the Yankees drive the bid up.It could be in the high teens by the end.

I read Tom Au's Bleacher Report article and responded to it on there so you can read my response.

The answer is no, you cannot turn Jason Bay into a 5 WAR player by playing Nyjer Morgan beside him in centerfield.

That is like saying if you have a full glass of water and pour some of it into a half full glass of water that you have 2 full glasses of water.

His basic flaw in logic is he is saying if you place Nyjer Morgan (best CF range in MLB) next to Jason Bay (low range) then Jason Bay negative UZR is no longer costing you runs and wins.

The center fielder's job is to get to as many balls as he can. No matter who is playing next to him, he's going to get to pretty much the same percentage of balls. He's never going to catch the balls that the left fielder should catch. Those balls still fall in and cost you runs.

4 yrs 60 mil is what I said for Bay!! Laugh at me 1nce, shame on you...

The center fielder's job is to get to as many balls as he can. No matter who is playing next to him, he's going to get to pretty much the same percentage of balls. He's never going to catch the balls that the left fielder should catch. Those balls still fall in and cost you runs.

______________________________________

I don't believe this applies to the Pirates, I don't believe any WAR or UZR stats can apply to a player in the Pirate outfield because of the unconventional alignments and the expectations of the Pirate outfielders, especially the left fielder and the center fielder. Since I am the opposite of a Bill James disciple, I am not even convinced his formulas apply to a normal outfielder.

"Best management team in baseball" doesn't make Newsday list of Top 10 GM's.

leadoff -

If you believe you can measure hitting ability by the percentage of times a ball drops in for a hit, why could you not measure fielding ability by the percentage of times a fielder turns a ball hit into his area into an out?

It's the same concept, right? Why is one valid and the other one isn't?

ants....

MAAAAAARRRRCCCCCHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

===========================================

Mark -- << If you believe you can measure hitting ability by >> I Hope that was a slip.  I think you're enough ot a statistician to recognize  that measuring outcomes is not the same as measuring ability.  Outcome is affected not only by ability, but by attitude, conditions, chance, motivation, even the weather and who knows how many more intangibles.  The statisticians hope is that these will average out, but there is a real danger in equating outcome with ability.  

It's why when I see a stat that has a more complicated formula than the calculating the break of a curveball in a wind tunnel I see it as perhaps a better determination of some abstract "value" of a player -- but as an imperfect predictor at best.