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On Doumit being traded this off-season for power outfielder...
I read somewhere that the most popular guy among most teams' fan base is the backup "defensive" catcher. This is the guy who can't hit worth a lick and yet fans insist that he brings so much to the pitching staff that that team would be better off if he would play more regularly.
Problem is, there's absolutely no data to support the notion that certain catchers make a measurable difference in how well pitchers throw the ball.
On the Pirates, with Doumit being injury prone, this has been taken to an extreme.
Unless you believe that Doumit will for sure not perform any better than he did this year, then replacing Doumit with Jaramillo full time is a huge step down.
Jaramillo is a very poor hitter. He was a below average hittier in the minors, and he is a poor hitter in the majors. wOBA = .297 is a bad hitter that creates a hole in the lineup and seriously cuts down the number of runs the Pirates can score from the bottom of the order.
When healthy, Doumit is an above average hitter, and although I wouldn't count on him hitting .367 wOBA like 2008, wOBA .330 - .350 is certainly likely.
If you trade Doumit, what power hitting corner OF are you going to get for him? Is anyone going to trade a sure fire above average corner outfielder for Doumit?
The answer is no. The most you're going to get for Doumit is a league average corner outfielder or one with upside but issues. In other words, exactly the same kind of guys that you can get by not trading Doumit and picking them up through free agency.
Let's say you did trade Doumit for a league average hitter. That would drop team wOBA by 40-50 points with Jaramillo playing in Doumit's place, and would raise team wOBA 40-50 points with the new league average outfielder playing in Moss's place.
In other words, you didn't improve the team at all.
Plus, since there's no hope of picking up a good hitting catcher in free agency, we're stuck with below average at that position until Tony Sanchez arrives in 2 years at the earliest.
On the other hand, guys that are league average corner outfielders or who could become that or better are readily available in free agency. And in addition, one of our top hitting prospects is a corner outfielder that is almost surely going to be called up to the Pirates two months into the season.
So that is why I would be incredibly surprised if Doumit were traded for an outfielder this off-season. You're trading someone MUCH more valuable than Jesse Chavez to get the same value of player as we just got by trading Chavez.
And even then there are a lot of people who think we gave up too much! Yikes.
Mark - i agree. as soon as someone has an off year, the immediate temptation is to say "trade him." Sort of like when your stocks tank and you want to sell them. Selling low is usually not a leading indicator of success.
If Doumit goes thru the first three mos of season unhurt and hitting .310 with some pop, THEN you could get something for him...but no one would want to trade him then. And really, why? We may have been pleased with the backups this year but no one was going to confuse them for the next Johnny Bench.
Maybe in about 2 years if Sanchez continues to sparkle and rise, but nobody ready now so why trade one position that, for now, would be thin without him - why create one hole to fill another?
Reading an article in the KC newspaper. Here is the Royals reason for trading Mark Teahan for two players: (sound familar?)
Increasing inventory while gaining financial flexibility.
“Our motivation behind this deal — and any deal that we make this winter,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore acknowledged, “is to acquire as many zero-to-three service-time players as we can. That was certainly what we did here.”
www.kansascity.com/.../1554079.html
HEAR YE HEAR YE
Next gathering Special Guest
Lou DePaoli
Executive Vice president and Director of Media Marketing
Date: December 5th.
Complete information to follow
Leadoff,
From the AM thread....Bix is the odd man out. There is no way that they waste a roster spot on him. While I agree with the "organizational filler" tag, with Vasquez, Cruz and now Iwwy who can play multiple positions, they have no need for him.
They would/should keep Walker on there before Bix. I don't envision any team wasting a spot on their 25 man for him for the entire year.
Zisk
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If he was the odd man out, why do think he is not already out?
Neal make a statement on his radio show one day when asked about Bixler, he said Bixler is a major league SS if he can learn to make contact.
Well Iowa finally blew one so bad they couldn't come back.The QB went down in the end zone(2nd quarter)...coughed up the ball and on one play they gave away 7 points and the QB was hurt.The backup QB(too green) didn't do squat and there goes the season. Crap!
Maz,
I hate college football. You are rewarded for losing early in the season by still being able to climb in the polls but if you lose later in the year...you're toast.
They need a playoff system so bad it isn't even describable.
I'm not sure when NH made that statement but I can tell you someone that Ks 1/3-4 ABs but doesn't hit 30+ HRs a year is not going to be coveted by many teams. He might be a ML SS...but he isn't a ML hitter.
In re Bixler:
The only reason I could see the Pirates sending him to Arizona was the hope he would hit decent, and therefor get more back when he is traded. Trading him is almost assured once the Pirates acquired Argenis Diaz. Diaz is an exceptional defender, but can't hit as well as Paul Maholm. He should be kept behind glass with a sign that reads "use only in case of emergency"
In case anyone missed JAL's link to fall ball.
mlb.mlb.com/.../org.jsp
___________________
The question still remains:
I think he could be included in a trade, many teams think that they can help a guy that needs to learn to make contact.
Top of the line 2nd basemen and SS are becoming endangered species in major league baseball.
late afternoon and 12 posts?
where is everyone?
is the FO out buying everyone pizza?
ss bixler- best contact young bix made was with butt to bench. more Ks than a bad jeopardy puzzle. hold a space for him? why? 150+ab inlast 2 years and .178 BA. he has about 20 autographed cards on e-bay for between .$49 and $.99. I don't know how e-bay values correlate to some of mark-in-d's numbers, but can't be good. I was surprised when I looked at his stats he was a college mvp in his league. he's also 6'1" which makes me think FO was thinking ripkin. 27 years old. still a prospect?
Speaking purely for moi...I am waiting for the OS.
Seems like springs eternal for prospects. Bixler has shown some promise in the minors but still a strike out machine. Guess they still hope he can start making more more contact but at 27 it seems unlikely.
Also it is 78 degrees in Iowa and the burgh is pretty warm too,plus college football is also a good draw too.
Afternoon mates, good tidings
Wouldn't bother me to see Bix get cut from the 40 man, same with Pearce if there is someone better to protect, heck, what were we thinking protecting Lerud for so long?
Cut those that we need to, trade what talent we have at ML level, lose 120 games, but commit to the plan, heck we might lose 120 with this team as it is currently constructed, especially if a few of our key players get hurt or have sophmore jinx seasons. Vegas odd say Doumit will either be hurt in a game or hurt when he next throws his helmet by May 15th, even money.
Honestly, regarding next year, it won't matter
Expect and hope, thats the ticket...
Good afternoon inmates near and far.
Maz, and Mr. Hadar, another tough day for the Hawks against NU. Here's wishing for a Penn State comeback in the 2nd half today.
Earlier today on XM radio, they had an interview with a writer from the St. Petersburg paper. He said he was surprised they got anything back in the trade earlier this week. He also mentioned they are not happy with their catching situation, and Navaro might be let go. If that happens, is Navarro good enough to replace Ryan?
Anybody wanna bet the Yankees take a good look at Bay?For maybe 3 yrs/55 mil?
Biz
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Neal has to get some more room on the 40 man BECAUSE!
Off to the dumpster they go. I think Neal likes the Yankee dumpster, rich people always throw away good stuff.
Although I did notice he has been spending time down at the Rays dumpster lately.
Maz - i like bay but think he's overvaluing himself. Yanks have started to go towards players in their prime...wouldnt be surprised if they sniff a bit to drive price up then back away from him.
Drew71 -zactly.The pink Hose are going to have to shell out close to 20 mil to re sign him.Hometown discount..harummpphh.kool aid in the extra large size for anyone believing in that.
no baseball no peace
mazzy - so formal? 71 is my last name.. just drew is fine.
- Mr. 71
Drew71 -Sorry but the blog is bloody boring til the end of January.I get so bored that Demery seems funny to me.
Drew71 -I just copy/paste names.I had a couple people get made because I got their names wrong.Some folks are persnickety.Anyone like music?Ain't nothing else here.At least the videos are funny.
www.youtube.com/watch
Mazzarooonie - i understand. i wouldnt think of getting a name wrong.
- Ivan Igor Droozinski
27 comments and 8 are mine.Do I keep track?OOPs 28 and 9 are mine..now
maybe you need some stronger meds. i gotta guy...i'll give him your name.
well--how about an evening link
Arizona Fall League Quick Hit: Has Donald Veal Turned the Corner?
bleacherreport.com/.../285817-afl-quick-hit-has-donald-veal-turned-the-corner
s o t h i r s t y . . . . m u s t h a v e b a s e b a l l
I propose we cut one space off the roster weekly so we have something to female dog about. how far away is february? and I don't follow college football or hockey....maybe I'll get another dog.
Anyone watching the AFL rising stars game on MLBN right now?
Tabata is hitting leadoff for the east. He's got some speed even though he doesn't look like he should being stocky. He beat out a grounder to short for an infield single his first AB.
East is up 5-0 in the first...shelling the braves pitching prospect Minor.
Strasburg was supposed to start for the east, but was scratched w/a muscle strain in his neck.
JAL- is he really DONALD veal? maybe we can spend time on nick names. iwwy really gave us some traction last week.
7-0 now.
games notes
mlb.mlb.com/.../Rising_Stars_Game_Notes.pdf
pi-rat--really is, or maybe a clone of Donald Veal :)
here's the live video web link for rising stars game
mlb.mlb.com/.../video.jsp
Moskos just got taken deep
Moskos getting hit although the last two could have been caught even though were hit well.
our prospect D’Arnuad is playing too. just singled. 7 -6 now...someone say this was a hitters league? lol
Wow, Johnston has some wicked stuff and big heat. Looks like Colorado's got another Jimenez on the way up.