Afternoon baseball talk, 11-4-09

holy crap! Firsties??

SECOND!

Let's Go BUCS!

Pros to Aki trade:

Now I can yell "AKIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" when Aki does something.

Cons:

Now more yelling, "JESSE CHAVEZ, JESSE CHAVEZ!"

Hmmm.  I guess only time will tell which one was more fun to yell at the TV.  That is the only way I'll judge this trade.

That little bit about Ankiel being a target for conversation with the Pirates concerns me... but anyone can talk.

Lates team blogs pushing to get Doumit from the Bucs:

Reds

Mets

The thing that does get me excited about this trade is that we seem to finally have a legitimate #2 hitter.  Will be very interesting to see him and Cutch at the top of the lineup.

I think Chavez will get a very good chance to establish himself at the back end of the TB bullpen.  If I recall they had some bullpen issues last season..especially with closing.

I laugh & cry when I read comments from TB fans that are fearing that their 'championship' window is already closing. Theys still have some good young ballplayers both in the majors and down in the minors, but economics have already forced them (or played a part in) to trade Kazmir and Iwamura.  And Carl Crawford is a free agent soon too, isn't he?

I posted this on the morning thread just now, but I'll also post here.  I'll stop beating a dead horse after this...

Matt Morris filled a hole.  He was a leader, a gamer, well-liked by his teammates.  Just saying...

I like Iwwy much better.  He has more left in the tank and is obviously cheaper.  He will be a positive for 2010.  However, why give up anyone who has already had success, and who the team controls for another 5 years.  2 of them dirt cheap.

The Rays will pay Chavez less in 2010 than what they would have paid Iwamura to NOT play for them.  Unless I see it reported that the Rays had a similar offer from another team, Neal got taken to the cleaners, at least to an extent.

Again, a good trade for the team for this year.  In the big picture, it wreaks of desperation.

I think Doumit would have been gone mid season with the rest of the trades had he been healthy. He'll be a bit harder to deal now.

PoH - rumors with last night trade included Doumit and Capps for Iwwy and SP

WWWYG - re posts

I guess its what you choose to read, from looking at posts from both last night and today, I'd say 60-70% of them were that either we got the worst of the deal, laughing at our past history of trades, such as "I'm surprised the Pirates didn't just give the Rays what they wanted for nothing in return", commenting on the fact that Iwwy would be flipped come July 31, the other posts either liked the deal or were angry because TBay didn't trade Burrell (he's so bad even that club doesn't want him)

A consistent comment was the upside of Chavez, the heat, he got worn out by mismanagement, we could check his monthy stats on that, and the fact Iwwy is a one year guy, for now.  Some thought it made no sense to give a chip away for this year only,

So thats what I read

My-Tee-Key

This may have been discussed but some are estimating that perhaps as many as 300 players will either be FAs or non-tendered.  Thinking about it, Doumit might be hard to trade what with his injury history and his current contract.

And I don't think he has the pop to be a DH

Anybody logging into the live FC chat @ 2:00?

All I know is this and I believe it to be a certainty....

NuHo is going to be kicking himself for being out shooting at geese when he could be here knocking down all of the ducks that have been lined up nicely for him re: positive FO remarks!

Rick Ankiel? For God's sake, why? Management doesn't think it can find an outfielder who can hit .231/.285/.387 on the current roster?

Bizzie - I agree. I was being soft. The reality is it will be hard to get good/equal value for him now. If he's stuck here and has an injury-free season in a "new" line-up he will make the decision easy - either play well enough to keep or easier to trade - or play poorly enough (or injured) to let him go for a song.

Neal got taken to the cleaners, at least to an extent.

==================

Seriously?

Jesse was an OK reliever (for a rookie, good, but overall for a RHRP, OK).  He had a 4.01 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35 (both pretty avg. for a relief pitcher, and I'd say that WHIP is a bit on the high side).  Again though, for a rookie making the most appearences on the staff (73), that's pretty good.

The thing that gets me is, he had 47 Ks in 67.1 IP.  For a guy with a 96 mph heater, that's not very good.  This tells me his best pitch is not a swing and miss pitch, and for a power late-inning reliever, that's not good.

Another thing that gets me is, while he was good at getting LH Hitters out (.228 avg, .286 OBP), he was not very good at getting the RH Hitters out (.299 avg., .356 OBP).  While the idea in trading Grabow was that we had RHRP that could get lefties out, the belief was that they could get both out, and Jesse doesn't seem to fit that mold.

While it was fun watching Jesse pitch and find some success, let's be honest with ourselves.  2B was a big hole that needed filled, and Neal was able to get a guy that should fill in quite nicely at the expense of an OK RHRP.

Not saying this trade is anything to write home about, but Neal definitely DID NOT get taken to the cleaners, to ANY extent.

St. Louis released Brad Thompson this afternoon so he's available if the Pirates are looking for relievers.

The FO isn't trying to field a contender in 2010, that much is obvious or they wouldn't have made the trades they have the last 2 years.

This trade fills a hole in 2010, but the hole will still be there in 2011 and beyond.  Chavez would have cost practically nothing for 2 more years, and he has shown he could be an asset for many years.  Could be, that is all.

Why give up anything in the future for one year, when you've made it clear that year is not your priority.

The Rays were going to let Iwamura go for nothing.  There is no need to give up anything more than a minor leaguer with limited potential for him.  Giving up more than that means he was taken to the cleaners IMO.  He overpaid based on the circumstances, and he hurt the team for the period of time that he is building for.

and plenty of free agent 2B are available.  Maybe not as good as Iwamura, but serviceable players who could fill the same hole for a year.

Look at the 1 for 1 in the immediate future, and yes Neal did fine.  Big picture, long-term, he's trying to save his own ass.  He feels Chavez is replaceable, and he's likely right.  However, this does not help the team long-term, it hurts it.  Especially when other options will be available without giving up any talent in return.

I think Chavez will get a very good chance to establish himself at the back end of the TB bullpen.

=======================

I think Tampa's gonna find out real quick that Jesse is just an avg. major league reliever.  He's going from the NL Central to the AL East.  That's a BIG difference in quality of teams.

He'll definitely get a chance (due to them having basically no one last year that could fill that role effectively) to establish himself, but I do not think he'll be able to stick.

But, good luck to Jesse nonetheless.

"there is no crime in reasonably assuring that the product taking the field in Pittsburgh on a nightly basis is a competent one, even if that has nothing to do with higher goals down the road."

Right.  It comes down to balancing the short term and the long term, IMO.

@ Go Bucs

I think you are way overstating the value of Jesse Chavez.  The only way that Neal gets "taken to the cleaners" is if Jesse looked to be the next Mariano Rivera, and that was not the case.

I understand your point about the Rays basically going to buy Aki out, and that we would've controlled Jesse's rights for another 5 years.  That is a downside to the trade.  There's no question, but with no internal options close to Aki's ability in the Bucs org. now (and there is Meek, Hanrahan, Hart who can pitch at the back of the bullpen), it does make sense.

Both teams made out well, for needs they are trying to fill.

Can't a trade be win-win?  Why does someone always have to lose?

21st -

I have written this many times.... the organization should be trying to win NOW, while building for the future as well...... not just throwing a season or 3 or 4 or 17 away.

Why now after this trade are others (not trying to single you out) okay with this idea?

DK -

I am sure part of it was hearing a human voice and your tone while addressing the questions as well as the rapport...wouldn't mind Mark making you a weekly or bi-weekly segment.  Great stuff.... you da man last night.....atta boy.....(pat on the back)

"There is no crime in reasonably assuring that the product taking the field in Pittsburgh on a nightly basis is a competent one"

I think most Pittsburgh fans would agree with this statement.  As evidenced by your example of the late 2009 team, management doesn't seem to care.

"I have written this many times.... the organization should be trying to win NOW, while building for the future as well...... not just throwing a season or 3 or 4 or 17 away."

BFD,

I think it's a delicate balance and harder to do than you make it sound.  I think DL tried this and obviously failed miserably because we didn't win and the minors deteriorated.

I'm still in awe over the fact that when this guy went down last year, Tampa plugged the hole with a guy who hit 27 homers. Meanwhile, we were all jazzed that our first baseman hit 21.

Must be nice to have an actual farm system. Then you don't have to trade for guys like Iwamura to upgrade your team.

@ Why Didn't I

To me it just comes down to the market value of the player they acquired.  Based on the circumstances (injury, buy-out looming), I don't think it was necessary to give up anyone who's shown they could be an asset in 2011-2014.

Unless I see that the Rays had offers of other major league relievers for Iwamura, then the Pirates overpaid.

Two years from now we could very well look back and say it was a good trade.  I don't dispute that.  I just see no reason to give up anyone on the major league roster given the circumstances.  Maybe Tampa had a lot of offers and Neal had to up the ante.  Possible, but I doubt it.

It appears that Neal decided he's better off getting a solid fill-in now, rather than waiting to see how free agency shakes out.  That makes me think that he's starting to feel the heat.  If so, he probably should.  They didn't give up a cornerstone, so all things considered it's not a huge deal.  Still, I don't like it.

Re - balance, as I'd call it

Its tough to drive in two different directions at the same time, especially for our club that has struggled with walking and chewing gum at the same time.

DK, I would hope I'm not considered one of the vocal few, but I have no real trouble with the future not being right now, as long as someday we have a chance.

This would indicate that, unless we have some strength to deal from (for example catcher where I think Diaz is out of options as is), there will be no more moves of consequence that like last year would damage the 2010 club?

Its gonna be an interesting ride ; }

fasteddie:

<<Rick Ankiel? For God's sake, why? Management doesn't think it can find an outfielder who can hit .231/.285/.387 on the current roster?>>

exactly. Perhaps they don't have a token "I took HGH" guy and feel that's a hole.

DK, I sent Mark a note about how good the interview was.

I said several times yesterday about how good it was on here. Very candid. He kept you on for 2 segments. he never does that for Rob Rossi. :)

@GoBucs re: "and plenty of free agent 2B are available."

I haven't seen anyone mention this but how does Iwamura's contract compare to the market rate for a 2B?

If Sanchez = Iwamura (as some said on the morning links thread.. I really have no knowledge), Freddy signed for 2 years @ $6M/year.  Seems like the discount for Iwamura has to be factored into this discussion.  

Assuming they could get someone on the FA market that is just as good for just as cheap seems to be a bad assumption.

Hey, GoBucs,

  I think, as PoH pointed out, the Cubs were also interested in Mr. Iwamura, and wasn't there another team, too?  So, Seattle may not have let him go "...for a song."  We may have been involved in a (mini) bidding war.

  And, while I really like Jesse Chavez, and hope he does well for his new team, I think we got a pretty good deal.

On moves the afternoon.  

JNN posted this yesterday on how close Snachez and Iwamura are

WAR over the last 3 seasons:

Freddy Sanchez 3.6

Akinori Iwamura 3.4

Spike

The Mets were mentioned as interested in Iwamura but Pirates got him from Tampa, not Seattle.

<<I'm still in awe over the fact that when this guy went down last year, Tampa plugged the hole with a guy who hit 27 homers. Meanwhile, we were all jazzed that our first baseman hit 21.>>

you just depressed the heck out of me, thnxsomch

JBurns,

I was about to say something like you did.

I would also add in that most free agents say in the press that they are usually signing with a team for a few limited reasons:

1. Money

2. To be closer to home

3. To be on a contender

The PBC isn't going to meet criteria 2 or 3 for most of the free agents so that means that they would have to up #1 to convince a FA to come here instead of someplace else offering a decent payday coupled with 2 and/or 3.

If you look at it in that manner, giving up a middle reliever for an everyday GG caliber fielder and .28 hitter that fills one of your biggest holes...it's really a no-brainer.

I know other teams were involved, but the fact they took the Pirates' offer means that the Rays felt no others compared favorably.  I'm not saying there was no market for Iwamura.  Just that IMO the market was weak and we overpaid.  I'm not a huge Chavez fan, but he has potential and was decent already.

There's no way to tell how the free agent market will shake out.  I know many mocked the Giants for giving Freddy that much, and he should get more than Iwamura would on the market.  I'd expect to get someone not quite as good as Iwamura, but for less money.  Maybe Belliard or someone else possibly better, but if not it's still an upgrade and no talent would have been sent away.  I'll be interested to see which 2B go into free agency, and how much they sign for.

@ Go Bucs

I totally get where you're coming from.  I think 1 thing that weighs heavily here is if the Bucs resign Iwamura past this season.  That all depends on a number of factors (performance being 1 of them), but since that fact remains to be seen, I think we do have to suspend total judgement on this trade.

Right now, I see it as a win-win for both teams, but like you said, in two years, could be a different story.

There should be free agents hanging around unsigned longer than you'd expect, much like last year.  To me, it makes more sense to scoop up one of them and keep all your young players around.  Leave enough players unsigned for a while, and someone will be happy to come to Pittsburgh for a year or two.

Thanks, JAL,

  Don't mind me - I think I have Seattle on the brain lately because of Garcia's infield work there and our earlier trade with them....

  Anyway, as regards Mr. Ankiel, when I listen to you guys/gals (Fast Eddie and PoH) it does sound pretty crazy - even to me!  I had simply heard his name bandied about earlier, knew he was having a down (But didn't realize just HOW down???) year, and figured we might find a bargain there.  (I also figured that he'd probably learned his lesson about the 'roids...  but then, Mrs. Spike says that I'm naive!)

  I'll just go sit down over in the corner, and wait for a few new brain cells to hatch...!

GoBucs,

The problem with your thinking on FA is that...the ones that will be left hanging around are still available for a reason. They really are not much better than average at best.

Juniata (and PoH),

Before we give the Rays too much praise for being able to replace Aki with 27 dingers, the reality is that Zobrist was a utility player for them who showed little or no power throughout this young career.  It didn't start to show until the 08 season and really flourished this year.  My point is that they may have gotten really, really lucky on this one.  The guy is 28 or 29 years old I think.

That said, they have a nice organization.  One that the PBC should emulate.  Is there still a chance that Moss will blossom like this?  Not to mention LaRoche, whom I already think is  a pretty good player though not meeting the expectations of many of this blog.

InZisk,

I like Iwamura, but he's only above average himself.  I'd be happy with someone average for a year, as I expected Andy to step in at 2B by 2011 anyway.  If not him, this trade doesn't change 2011 anyway.  The goal for 2010 is to avoid complete embarrassment, as it would be a step in the right direction.

Maybe Andy develops quickly, Iwamura does well and gets traded in June or July, and Andy moves to 2B when Pedro comes up.  I'm not saying it's a disaster.  Just that they could have gotten to about the same place without giving up any talent in return.

To Dej and Everyone - I just did my daily run past the nina and Pinta boats along the North Shore after jogging through the PNC Park left field concession area, then later over the West End Bridge and along the river by Station Square.  What a great city we live in.  The Bucco franchise has more history than the Steelers and Penguins combined.  I don't see why Nutting & Co. would not want to become as successful as those two franchises have become lately.

And even with the 297 ft right field fence at Iwamura's former home field in Japan, 44 HRs in 2004 is mind-boggling.

PoH - first I read that Andy vanSlyke quit as the first base coach for the Tigers, now his card is removed from the blog

What the heck is up with all of this??

Also, as an aside, Leyland is being criticized in Detroit papers/blogs for keeping McClendon around as the hitting coach.  Folks are saying its only because they are buddies.

Too bad we didn't get Andy as a coach, but maybe he's going back to his radio station.

I hear you, L-Z!

  I'm sitting right across from PNC Park right now, looking at it, thinking about our fabled franchise and the marvelous and historic City in which it flourished for so many years (and will yet again - mark my words!)with pride.

There are two free agents out there that seem to be intriguing and both come from a pretty good hitting team and have decent numbers. What are the chances that the PBC brings in Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd? Both have pretty decent all around numbers, both are around 30 years old, and the cost for both of them could be around 11 mil per year (7 mil to Blalock and 4 mil to Byrd). Am I out of my mind for thinking this might be the way to go? This way, we bring in a corner OF and a 1B that both have some pop in their bats and at 11 mil a year, it's not exactly putting a dent into the FO's pockets. And if Tabata, Clement or anyone else that steps it up we again have depth or options to trade at the deadline for more prospects or other needs. The trade yesterday just has me hoping that the FO is finally willing to take the steps necessary to put a competitive MLB team on the field.

I’m for this trade, it’s going to be much harder to find a solid GG 2B than it is to find another RHRP. I do see the arguments being made about Aki only being signed for a year, but let’s see what we get out of him first rather than be locked into someone else for more than 1 year and have to eat salary, ie Matt Morris.

JAL sorry for being a gray man.  Anyways here is my take.  Unless they extend him before the season, which coming of a knee injury, I don't think they will do, one of two things will happen.

1.  He will underperform and at all star break they will trade him because they will have no interest in re-signing him and will want to get something for him before he becomes a free agent.

2. He performs well and during the season the Pirates make an offer of a 2 year deal at the "Pirates' fair value." (think Freddy Sanchez)  He turns the deal down because he figures to take his chances on either more years or more money as FA. Same result as first scenerio, the Pirates move him at all star break to get some prospects rather than lose him for nothing.

Either way Pirates fill a need for half a season at the cost of about 2.2-2.5 million.  They can placate some fan discontent by getting an actual major league player and paying him a reasonable salary and in July they can probably get back a player with at least the upside of Jesse Chavez.

One thing I am glad about is that maybe this Pirates FO has finally come to realize that middle relievers are a dime a dozen and totally unpredictable.  Thus there is no need to overpay for them or overvalue their trade value.  (Think Salomon Torres; Scott Sauerbeck,vMike Gonzales, Scott Linebrink, Ryan Franklin; Brad Lidge; Matt Herges, etc. I could go on and on with guys who teams got for nothing and they became something and then went back to being nothing.)    

Blalock  has been discussed over and over-some hate the idea and other lik it.

And Byrd? Is there anyone else comparable to these two that I'm missing? Late 20's, early 30's with pop on their bats that can be had for around 7 million a year?

just for my two cents....

i like the trade...would i have picked the guy who's name i can't pronounce? no, probably not, but its an effort of trying to build a quality team.  Not every 2B is a Chase Utley or Robinson Cano...this guy is about the same as Freddy was, but better baserunner and if not the same, a better glove man...

What are the chances that the PBC brings in Hank Blalock and Marlon Byrd?

====================================

JMaz17

Don't bring up Blalock.  I tried.  No one here (barring me and a few others) thinks it is a good idea.

They will cite injury history, the fact he will not be able to play the field any more (they say he can only DH, hence not a NL player), and his 108 Ks in only 123 Games.

If you have any feelings on Hank Blalock, keep the to yourself.  It'll save you time and aggravation.  Just know that some do agree with you and think it's a decent idea.

Hank Blalock has been a Pirates fan's Pipe dream for a long time...he's another first baseman at this point in his career.

Keep in mind that there's no way the Pirates land Iwamura in free agency, and certainly not for one year.  This way, they get a good-to-very good second baseman who, by all accounts, was an excellent teammate, albeit for one year.  

He's certainly better than anybody who would have signed for one year in Pittsburgh, plus they have the inside track if they'd like to extend him.  

And, if they trade him in July, we'll all be saying how Jesse Chavez ultimately was flipped for so-and-so.  

Sure, it stings a little to give up a rookie who performed admirably, but I'll take an everyday infielder over a middle reliever, even if the club loses some years of control.

I thought it was a good idea 3-4 years ago...

Up next a corner outfielder....

how about Johnny Damon??

jmaz,

I also liked the Blalock idea but Why Didn't I has pointed out that it wasn't necessarily a popular idea.  I looked at him as a 3B option until PA arrives.  It was also with the intent of LaRoche moving to 2B.  I just wanted another bat.

MarkInDallas is a big proponent of Byrd and can offer up the numbers to justify it.  I'm not as big a fan given the lack of power which I feel is the biggest need.

Other than that, until we see who else pops up, the cupboard is rather bare.

Dejan, thanks for feedback.

"Huntington's motivation, if I had to really guess, Drew -- and it's not more than that -- is that the Pirates simply cannot continue to be the catastrophe they were in the final two months of 2009. That helps no one, not the development of the young players, not the coaching staff, and not management in establishing patience for its longer-term goals."  

- i can accept that motivation

"As I have written countless times -- to the consternation of a vocal few -- there is no crime in reasonably assuring that the product taking the field in Pittsburgh on a nightly basis is a competent one, even if that has nothing to do with higher goals down the road."

- Amen to that.  I joke about No More Make-Do.  But it's also serious.  Real businesses have BOTH short term and long term goals.  Amen...if this move makes the passage the the long term more palatable, then good for them, good for us.

Why Didn't I get to see Roberto?

I'll be sure not to bring him up again, thanks.

Thoughts on Marlon Byrd then for the corner OF position we're in need of? That would move Legend to 1B and provide another bat with decent avg and power in the lineup and possibly be in the 3 or 4 hole of the order?

2010 lineup as follows:

1. damon

2. new guy

3. AMac

4. The Legend

5. Doumit

6. Andy

7. Milledge

8. Cedeno

9. Pitcher

One point that seems to be overlooked is that "Aki" 's option had to be exercised ONE day after the end of the World Series or bought out. Obviously NH felt the Yankees were going to close the deal tonight and wanted to get the deal done before owner's meetings begin.

The big question about Byrd is did he find his power was last season one of kind?  His 20 HR last season at age 31 doubled the most he hit before in any of his 7 previous seasons.  In fact, his 20 last season comprise 33% of his career HR total.  Also, as a type B he will want a pretty big contract.

BetterDaysComing

I was just looking over the list of FA's and was in search of 20-25 HR's and around a .280 avg and there's not many corner OF's that can be had for a price we can afford. That was why I suggested Byrd, he's not gonna hit 30 HR's but I know I'd welcome another 20 a year from someone and that someone doesn't seem to be internal until PA gets here.

The reason why I said both names was so that Legend could move to either place in case of injury or to just be spelled when rest is needed, but I'll leave the HB out of this from now on. Thanks

the ball carries in Texas!!

STLR,

Re: Damon

Nice player but I think might be wasted on this team.  He strikes me as a really nice supplement on a good team at this point in his career.  He can only play LF and will be pricey one would think.  

Can Tabata/Moss be our RF in a strict platoon situation?  

GoBucs - I expect Chase or Shelby to step into second base when Iwwy Pop is done here, and I expect Pedro to take third. That gives us a ML trade chip in LaRoche.

So is there any realistic option then to bring in another potential 20 HR guy to make up for the lack of power at the hot corner? I like the team as is, but we're missing power and that's something you just can't have enough of. I know once PA gets here, there's a potential for 40 HR's a year there, but he may not be ready June 1 and I'm looking at opening day roster right now.

STLRFANRC

Damon is a Type A FA, is he really worth the PBC giving up that high of a draft pick at the ripe age of 36?

Damon is still producing...put him in Left and Milledge in RF.

jmaz,

Yes, I'd be happy with another 20 guy as well.  Even post Pedro they'll need a bat to protect him and I don't see it in this lineup.  I'm guessing that NH expected Moss and LaRoche to be those guys by now.  It may still happen but chances seem to be diminished, especially for Moss.  

A FA pickup  would be in order when the time is right IMO or else Alvarez will get nothing to hit.

I read today that Damon is talking to the Yankees, 2 years 16 million

<,Damon is still producing...put him in Left and Milledge in RF.>>

I'm on board with that, Jones at first.

As a FA, we don't have to trade anyone else either, we have the money (well, the PBC has the money, I don't.)

BetterDays - If NH expected Moss to be that guy, he needed to send JR the memo that sitting Moss 2/3 of the week would not get him there. And the other third of the week he played was no consecutive days.

Does anyone know - is Moss playing Winter Ball?

Come on guys, we add some payroll and all the sudden we're in the market for Johnny Damon??  Not gonna happen.

Plenty,

Yeah, I hear that.  That may be my biggest beef with JR.  I still think the kid never got a full shot and that given the small sampling size he could have produced over a more extended trial period.  I'll ger villified for that but I wanted him to get AB's.  Every time he showed signs of busting out he was back on the pine.

I just know that he'll end up going elsewhere and will turn into a quality ML hitter.

<<Come on guys, we add some payroll and all the sudden we're in the market for Johnny Damon??  Not gonna happen.>>

There's a reason it's referred to in here as the asylum!

We could trade for Pujols.... still... we could...

Here's something going back to yesterday that has me curious.

NuttingHostage wrote that DK said the 2010 payroll was about $24 million. Someone else wrote that FC said at the gathering that the payroll was $32 million, not $28.

Fast forward to DK's articles last night/today. He said the payroll went from $28 million to $32 million with the trade for Iwwy.

So, who was right eleven days ago, Frank or DK? If Frank was right, then payroll has now gone from $32 million to $36 million, right?

>>There's a reason it's referred to in here as the asylum! We could trade for Pujols.... still... we could...<<

Or now that Van Slyke quit his coaching job, he could come back to the Pirates from retirement a la Mario to plug that OF hole.

Off to take my meds. :-)

I have a question for everyone that suggests we are getting a leesor player or just the same player :  How many times has each of you seen this new guy play?

How many years have you seen him play?

Yje only person whpo has said he has seen him play is Arriba sand he likes him a lot!

Excuse the typo of "$24 million." As it appears later in my post, it was "$28 million."

<,Or now that Van Slyke quit his coaching job, he could come back to the Pirates from retirement a la Mario to plug that OF hole.>>

TEASE!

POH

<,Damon is still producing...put him in Left and Milledge in RF.>>

I'm on board with that, Jones at first.

____________________________

If we did get Damon he would never play left field for this team at PNC, he would need the Parrot's bike just to get around.

They would have to get rid of Varsho, you think we are giving up doubles and triples now, try in-the-parkers with him in left.

Spike - Moss is not playing winter ball, they specifically talked about him during the time NH was talking about several refusing the suggestion to go play there.  Moss was not one of the ones that turned it down.

JAL posts a link to the stats for all the folks playing from the PBC organization every day.

He's probably out shooting Bambi right now.

I agree with any thoughts on the fact this guy could be something good and that he basically was a splinter picker-upper this past season.  And thats a big reason why I don't like JR, not to go there.

Johnny Damon?  Wow, that is way out there.

I like the idea of Byrd, but it makes me not real thrilled with the Nate trade.

Let's compare the last 3 years combined:

Byrd - 1364 ABs, 196 runs, 40 hr, 212 rbi, 20 sb, .294 avg.

Nate - 1433 ABs, 261 runs, 59 hr, 202 rbi, 64 sb, .265 avg.

Their OBPs are almost identical, so that closes the avg. gap pretty well.  Nate was in a worse lineup, yet scored a lot more runs.  He also has 50% more HR and over 3 times the steals.  Oh yeah, he's 4 years younger and cheaper than Byrd would be.  Nate is only $11 million the next two years, with an option for a 3rd at $10.65 million.  I'm pretty sure we'd all be thrilled if Byrd came at that price.

I didn't intend this as a rant, just meant to say that we are now longing for a player almost as good as the one we just traded.  Only, it he'd be 4 years older, out of his prime years, and would carry a slightly bigger contract.  And this is if management is willing to spend that kind of money.

The comparison came up in my mind, so I had to explore.  Now I wish I hadn't.  I know, we got young guys and Morton could be really good.

So could Chavez.

Leadoff -

I've totally changed my mind now. We're bringing VanSlyke back, forget Damon.

bike. LOL.

Wait till Little Roach gets out of the tree stand and realizes that Iwwy Pop took his second base job and the warm air he feels on his neck at third is Pedro, preparing to take his rightful place.

Bizrow,

"He's probably out shooting Bambi right now"

Are you inferring that Moss is Nutting Hostage?  That explains a lot.

That said, I'm on your side.  Play him.

I guess I should be happy with the deal, after all as NH said, we just got 600 major league at bats today.

Somehow, that just doesn't give me a warm fuzzy and as I asked earlier, what message might that send to DY and Co?

Thanks, Biz,

  I'm not inferring that you were implying that Moss is NuHo - though I've never seen them in the same room  (or stadium) at the same time LOL!  G;>}

is Demery w/ nutho? they both are MIA

Alright, let's nail this down before someone asks two years from now, "Who came up with the nickname Iwwy Pop?"

I've only been perusing but I'm thinking the first time I saw it used was by Arriba Wilver ... Arreebs? Did you coin that? G-Man, a Hap Cap for Arrebs?

I did Google on it to make sure it didn't trail in here with Aki, from Tampa Bay lore ... but when I Googled, there was one hit, Droobs allusion to it on this morning's thread.

leadoff--I agree with you 100% on Damon, and I especially like the idea of getting rid of Varsho.

GoBucs---(Pssst---you aren't allowed to talk about Nate on here, you could get in trouble)

Biz,

The message to DY may well be:  Thanks for all the hard work but you are not good enough to play second base every day for a full year.

I still like his bat , so I hope he gets some starts in RF and an occassional start at 2nd.  But he may be all bat and not so good glove.

G-Man--love the new avi.  I think there are 2 possible solutions to the dilemma you posed.  Either FC is including expected raises or he's a bald-faced liar.  ;-)  FC's a lawyer and DK's a journalist, so probably neither one are math wizzes.

Hey, Bay,

  Yep.  "Iwwy..." just sort of popped up - kind of sudden-like...!

Thunder,

I'll bet that DY still gets 300 at bats but in three or four different positions.  I also like having him on the roster.  Versatile and valuable.

GoBucs,

I understand you feelings about McLouth (sorry Arriba) but we also wouldn't have the return we received for him either.  Starting pitching is still the name of the game and we appear to have a pretty good one in Morton.

Bay--sorry, can't claim credit for that one. I'm not sure who used it first.

Bay - last night when the trade was done and I went to whine to our sports department (a mix of Phillies fans with one Orioles dude thrown in) one of them said "The Pirates got Iwwy Pop? That's major league right there. How did that happen?"

@Plenty - ""The Pirates got Iwwy Pop? That's major league right there. How did that happen?"

And the rest, as they say, Sis, is history! Houston, we have our benchmark ... off to war a little.

<Keep in mind that there's no way the Pirates land Iwamura in free agency, and certainly not for one year.  This way, they get a good-to-very good second baseman who, by all accounts, was an excellent teammate, albeit for one year.>

_________________________________________________

This is by far the smartest thing I've read on here the last day or so.  Good post Flip.

Yes, we could have gone out and TRIED to get a FA 2B (even Iwamora).  But, we never would have gotten one at this price or for one year.  We had to jump on this guy before everyone else did and we were left in the dust.

Now, if he plays well, we probably do have an inside track to resign him....(you know his wife will love this sister city).

For those that compare this to Matt Morris....get real!  Morris was acquired mid-season and we picked up ALL of his remaining salary!...which was inordinate to say the least.  AI is a steal at 4M+ for a legitimate 2B.

And Chavez' peripherals were not good.  Not good at all.  He was a decent reliever on a terrible team....this isn't saying much.  With the heat he has, he should be striking out more than he does...but he doesn't have a swing and miss pitch, apparently.

Like Drew said, i believe, every strong company has short and long-term goals.  I don't believe this is a full-scale deviation from the 'plan, but a smart baseball move that improves the ML team and doesn't financially impact the future.

I may need more meds from the nurse for suggesting this:

We all think of Ankiel as an outfielder. What if the pirates acquire him , and try to convert him back to pitching? Particuarly a relief pitcher?

What i can not figure is how the same people who complain that we are going nowhere for a couple of years are also complaing about the trade to make immediate improvement of the field ?

radio wave -

Re your Ankiel suggestion: we're going to make you take those meds while banished to sitting in the corner.

And the meds might be HGH.

@Radio -  "may need more meds from the nurse for suggesting this ... What if the pirates acquire him (Ankiel) , and try to convert him back to pitching? Particuarly a relief pitcher?"

NURSE! More meds for Radio ... and hypodermically, please!

(Best to Mrs. Radio and Wilson)

JJ

What i can not figure is how the same people who complain that we are going nowhere for a couple of years are also complaing about the trade to make immediate improvement of the field ?

_________________________

beats me!

jj -

It's just this siimple:

(1) People love to complain to anyone who will listen.

(2) People are never satisfied.

So Chavez is a bum, maybe not a bum but he is easily replaceable, yet Morton is going to be really good?  They both have live arms, appear to have good stuff, but they don't strike out as many as you'd think and their numbers aren't impressive so far.

A starting pitcher is more valuable than a reliever, but if you love Morton how can you quickly dismiss Chavez?

I'm not a huge Chavez fan.  He could develop or he could flop.  I have no idea which, but he and Morton's chances of being successful in their roles seem very similar to me.

I just see inconsistency both in our assessments of trades and in management's execution of trades.

When they sign Damon or Crawford, John Lackey, Rafael Soriano and Billy Wagner, then I will see their true plan unfold.  Until then, they're backtracking slightly.

JJ and leadoff -

I still think this team and organization stink, but I like the trade..... I would have rather kept Freddy, but as far as the team 2 days ago compared to today..... I  like it.  It is a bandaide on an amputee, but it helps.  

I like the idea of Damon.  I don't care how old he is.... and don't anyone complain about how much he'd cost.  Payroll is 30 million.....we have plenty of room to spend.

This just in.....

June 1st is Iwamura bobble head night....

Chavez is not a bum. That trade won out over teams that have far better stuff than us.

I almost forgot to write this:

Go Yankees! Take the title tonight!

My-Key-Tee, don't you know Demery and Nutting Hostage are the same person.

Srsly.

I don't know if we're done with acquisitions and trades yet, but taking DK's take at face value, what does our pitching staff look like?

Ohlendorf, Morton, Duke, Maholm, & (one of Hart, Ascaino, Dumatrait, Karstens, Lincoln, or Veal) as starters.  Since we're short of left handers for the bullpen, let's annoint Hart as the 5th starter not necessarily because he's the consensus as the best choice, but because the nature of baseball is that once you're in somebody has to beat you by a long ways to get your job.

That gives us Ascaino, Dumatrait, and Veal for long men out of the bullpen.  We need four more:  Meek, Jackson, and Hanrahan.  Then we have Capps, Karstens, Lincoln, McCutcheon, and whoever for the last spot, and you can replace any of the previous ones with new acquisitions or guys you didn't choose.  Lincoln is not on the 40-man yet, nor is Aldredge, so if you pick them someone has to go.  

It's not as formidable a staff as it should be, but there isn't a great drop in quality either.

On the other hand, either DY will have to blossom or Iwamura will have to have a horrible year for us not improve at 2B.

Johnny Damon?  Seriously?  Why?  oh why?

Is DL calling the shots again?

My 4 year old has a better arm....and he's MUCH younger.

I can remember when I said that JESSE CHAVEZ will retire with Pirates, he showed great promise and stuff, shortly there after he became so predictable that it was painful to watch, I dont know how many times he brought his GAS CAN to the mound in crucial situations and it was obvious that MLB HITTERS had caught up with him ,...His desire to throw fastballs and the timing of the fastballs got hit HARD THAN A BRICK WALL, I like management am happy he is gone,

As for our RETURN, Hey he is a servicable 2ND BASEMAN, something we didnt have, I mean there was a FIASCO, CIRCUS going on at 2nd base after FREDDY LEFT.....I mean this guy takes pitches and is decent......Not overly excited but hey the departure of CHAVEZ AND KNOWING DY will not be our starting 2nd baseman makes me happy...

daryle - long time no see!

GoBucs,

I in no way think Chavez is a bum.  I do like the deal but you have to give quality to get quality in most cases.  

I do though think that starting pitching is more valuable than relievers.  I like what I saw of Morton in his last handful of starts.  The Wrigley debacle aside, he and Ohlendorf were exceptional down the stretch and gave me reason for great optimism.  

As for this trade, I think it was just a matter of a glaring need being addressed when there was no viable alternative available in house.  The stockpiling of young arms over the past two years does give them that option when addressing the bullpen deficiencies.

The trade, IMO, doesn't hurt them long term, doesn't deviate from the plan nor does it slow the process.  What it does is make them better in 2010 in a couple of ways and at a relatively low cost.

jj - another attack? thats two

If you remember, lately I have been saying we are not going anywhere for a few years, this deal notwithstanding, but I understand the rules.

And I still believe the best way to go is now to keep all your marbles and struggle through.

One thing though, our bullpen blew up last year, right?  Injuries due to misuse, not having the tools to mix and match, youth, whatever.

And I'm not a Chavez lover, but he did impress me last year, ran out of gas, from too much use per game, per outing.  Its a JR thing

So, we could afford to trade him because "you can never project bullpen guys", but to replace a decent 70 some outings, some with more than one inning, under 5 years of control, we have, oh, but you can't project him, hey, we have, oh, the projection thing, I know how about, darn projection.

As I've said before, things need to be logical, had he said, well, look, we've gotta start beefing up the ML level, this was a guy we wanted, Chavez did a good job for us, but we think we have people to replace him, ok, I can buy that, but not the double-speak words that you can call him on.

As far as signing Iwwy, well, history has shown us, we don't get that done.

Drew71 if you are here

I say you sign NH for one more year, before the end of this year, if he implodes, you eat the contract come next November, we got all of our chips in Huntington right now, he's gotta either sink or swim.  IMO how he handles JR's contract will be a good measure of his skills.

This just in

Rumor has it that JR is very concerned about Iwwy and being able to show him love and support.  What if Iwwy only does crossword puzzles in Japanese????

On RF options...

First, if you are looking for someone that has consistently hit 25+ HRs and has a great track record for the last 3 years, you can basically forget it. Johnny Damon or any other marquis name coming off a good season is not going to sign with Pittsburgh.

There are basically 2 ways the Pirates can go on this.

#1. Find a player who had a good season offensively last year and who has been consistent over a period of several years, and who also plays good defense. Yearly WAR value = 2 - 2.5. Bust potential = low.

* Marlon Byrd is the epitome of this player in this crop of FAs, and probably the only one that would fit. Cost = $7M-$8M/year.

#2. Find a player that had a down year but has shown a lot of potential in the past. They probably put up monster numbers for 1 or 2 years several years ago and then fell off for one reason or another. Maybe injury, etc. Think Ryan Doumit if he were a free agent this year. Yearly WAR value = 0 - 4. Cost = $2 - $4M/year. Bust potential = high.

* Rick Ankiel is probably one of the best bets of these candidates. With a wOBA of .364 in 2007 and .360 in 2008, Ankiel put up only slightly less offensive production in those 2 years to Ryan Doumit's 2008 season (.367) and Andrew McCutchen's 2009 (.368). He did have a lingering ab strain that hampered him the end of 2008. In 2009, Ankiel started out slowly, hitting .247 in the first 24 games, then ran head first into the wall making a spectacular catch. Ankiel injured his shoulder on that play, and suffered from weakness in it for the next 2 months. Just when he was finally feeling good again and mashing the ball in late July, he suffered a groin strain. He then batted .211 the last 2 months of the season in lessen playing time as Colby Rasmus had emerged and took over in center field.

The big question with Ankiel is his durability and stamina. If he can get healthy and stay healthy and stop running head first into walls, he likely would recapture his 2007-2008 magic.

The problem is he plays with a lot of reckless abandon in the outfield, and in that way reminds me a lot of Rusty Greer, whose career with Texas was cut short due to repeatedly being injured in the outfield.

I think he's a good gamble to take, though, because his ceiling is indeed high and he could conceivably be a 4 WAR player if healthy.

Those are pretty tough to find in the bargain bin.

JHadar, good breakdown of the staff.  My bet is that Veal will start in AAA. I'm not sure I want Dumatrait on my staff anymore - and will  Ascaino be healthy & ready by opening day?

I just realized that Karsten may be the 'wild card' in that bullpen.  He seemed to really start to excel out of the pen even though at the end of the season he may have been injured and took a bereavement leave.

LVPF, I agree that this is way different than the Matt Morris trade.

Everyone except Littlefield and maybe his scouts could see that Morris was washed up.

Any chance we could trade JR for a "manger to be named"?

BTW tell him to move around a little and they will stop circling around him. :-)

<<As far as signing Iwwy, well, history has shown us, we don't get that done.>>

There are more factors than money here. Not that the PBC just opens that checkbook wideo open and lets the player fill in the dollar slot... but, when you're a FA, you choose. Was there a second baseman out there worth having that would have chosen the Pittsburgh Pirates?

So they find a guy worth having that has this funkly clause that puts the Bucs in contention to get him, cause the guy has no say.. he's over in Japan, minding his own beeswax, and his team - a WS team that can evaluate talent -- sees that instead of paying this guy to go away, they could get a young reliever with TONS of potential and give Iwwy to the Bucs.

Because with everything that's happened, I don't think a lot of guys out there in FA for any position lie in bed at night dreaming of turning Pittsburgh's baseball team around.

Sad to say. I hope that changes in the next four years.

Not sure why fans should be satisfied with a team that lost 99 games last season?

Management claims they are going to try to win in 2010, just as they promised last season before they changed their mind.

They did not change their mind, the team changed their mind for them.

POH

You are right there.  FA's take many things into account  when they have options and it is not always the most money.  Pirates usually get the lower ones who do not have many people after them.

Ok, PoH, my point was its one year, we can talk and talk about extensions, but so far, as far as value, this FO, right or wrong has never matched up with anyone.  Is that not correct?  Dirty Doug wanted to stay, Freddy, JW, Grabow, never a match.  

Why is this scenario any different?

History is often the best judge and prediction of the future, thats all I'm saying

JAL - sir, I humbly disagree, the club went into last season with the mission to deconstruct, we weren't doing that poorly till the Nate trade, the signing trumpeted as the "core" was moved.  If we were serious about competing last year, maybe we would have signed a good FA or two?

Lets see whats traded this year?

We have suffered through so much over the last 17 years that we have lost all sense of reality. We hear about this plan and that plan, that we aren't able to think clearly. The goal is to win, to have the best possible team on the field. With that in mind there is only factor to determine whether or not a trade is good. This is a one for one trade, which makes it easy. Don't think about potential or what will happen next year; ask only: Is Iwamura better than Chavez for the upcoming season? Answer yes.

Biz, please

Those lower FA's are the ones management will expect the fans to "fall in love with" again this offseason.  

Biz

But it still was not a winning team.  4 games under when he was traded on June 3 and  3 games under on June 14

JAL - 3 or 4 games under, and they felt that team needed blown up without worrying about the short-term.  Now the major league team is considerably worse, yet they're suddenly worried about the short-term?

That's the part of this trade that doesn't work for me.  Keep everyone you have.  The biggest asset the FO had was $25-$30 million to work with, not talent to trade away.

Biz, I respectfully have to disagree about 'Dirty Doug wanted to stay, Freddy, JW, Grabow, never a match.'

These guys were overpaid and underperforming, with the exception of DM (who just a bench player).  The FO assigned a value which the player didn't agree with....that's business sometimes.  As it turns out, none of those players are worth  what they thought they were.....even Sanchez who felt slighted by our offer because he was due 8M.  Well guess what?  He only got 6M per, and was fortunate to have a GM trying to save face after a terrible trade.

Biz - I wasn't really responding to you. I was sort of typing outloud, because for the last week I've been on the "buy a second baseman" kick, and I wanted to pay money outright, not trade. Then I got to thinking, what if you can't get anything but crap to come here outright as a FA? Maybe that HAD to be done this way to make anything other than a Matt Morris happen.

And maybe the reason that the FO traded for a second baseman instead of spending ST teaching every guy who won't make the bullpen to try second base is because they realize they lost the best infield coach in baseball, and maybe they don't have the coaching talent to teach someone a new position at this level.

This is my hope turning to cynicism.

And for every player that leaves that I have great fondness for (and trust me, Chavez was one) it heartens me that they get a chance to play for a winning team. Doesn't every athlete want the chance to win?

Grabow was performing and perforig pretty well, I think.  I think we were left with a huge hole the bullpen when he left.  

I can live with the Iwamura trade if they extend him 2 more years beyond this coming season.

If he is salary dumped at the trade deadline, Huntington should be terminated.

Honestly, this move smacks of desperation. - The kind David Littlefield exhibited right before he was fired.

Four months of Iwamura for Jesse Chavez would be a horrible, horrible, horrible trade.

@hostage

four months of Iwamura + what we get in the trade (if we trade him) of Iwamura at the deadline for Jesse Chavez could either end up being a good or bad deal.

It just seemed that you ignored what we would be getting in return. if freddy brought back tim alderson, and it is thought that Iwamura is a hair worse than freddy, you never know.

four months of Iwamura + prospect almost as good as alderson for chavez could end up being a great deal, in my opinion.

I'm going thru "Post-uggla depression".  

However, seeing that the Pirates have picked up the best 2B in the Division (go home Richie Weeks).  While I liked Chavez, I think it was one of those baseball moves that "you have to give up something to get something".  Granted this wasn't "Fred McGriff for Roberto Alomar", but I'm slightly satisfied.  

I was seeking NH to take advantage of the veteran market ineffeciencies (i.e good veterans at "prospect prices), as in an old school baseball trade.  

Here is a thought... what if you defense saved say 7-10 pitches per game--would you need Jesse Chavez?

>>I can live with the Iwamura trade if they extend him 2 more years beyond this coming season.<<

The REAL question is: can Iwwy live with it?

PoH, ok, sorry for responding to you.  I will do my best to follow the rules in the future.

JAL - 3 or 4 under at that time is not the reason to throw the rest of the year under the bus, ML talent wise, are we better off now than we were a year ago?  ML talent, not organizational where we have a lot more maybes.  We let Ohlie grow, Andy played decent defense except when he had to think, Legend?  yup a surprise, Lastings?  Well, he cost us Nyjmo, bullpen? heck we don't need no stinking leftys. Bottom line is as much maybes and as many real holes as last year.

But overall, we have a 220 career hitting shortstop, still the same china doll catcher, still questions in RF, no real veteran leadership except for a guy that can't talk english very well, but he has driven in 104 runs in 2 1/2 seasons and is our highest paid player, so heat off a bit on payroll,  and the same on field management team that uses the no-triples and don't tick off the ump philosophy, Cutch cannot be used as a reason for improvement, he's doing it on his own and as noted earlier is getting tired and beaten down at the old age of 22.  Meanwhile, much more eyerolling this year, thats a delta on optometrist fees in 2010

jj - please yourself, if I may say, my friend, and you are in my eyes, lets see history....  Umm, the relationship with JW and Freddy, Hill, Sano's agent, Donnelly, have you ever heard Greg Brown while interviewing NH say increduously So you mean???, the absolute doublespeak we get at times, oh yeah, management being ticked at DK for thinking what he thinks, oh and lets not forget JR, almost 200 losses in two seasons, no record of stopping a slide, he just sits there like a slug. Oh and the Alvarez mess, the word that budmeister's approval process stopped us from another few FAs

Now this change of thought.  Forget it, I'm not rehashing old thoughts.

You guys (can't address PoH, just read the rules) have to let people speak freely, same as NuHo, but I must admit, most times his posts are funnier

Regarding stats, I read today that Iwwy would net us a total of 3 more wins, ok, yay, we are up to 96 losses, so next year I wil not have to sweat the last month of the season about hitting 100.

Not to be critical of course

Oh, oh, am gonna get burned by the length of post police

Expect and hope

I'm not going anywhere, I am a Pirates Fan

"Four months of Iwamura for Jesse Chavez would be a horrible, horrible, horrible trade."

Nobody trashed the front office for Chavez making the roster last spring more than you.

JAL - 3 or 4 games under, and they felt that team needed blown up without worrying about the short-term.

_____________________________

I think the blown up part is a little off base, the Pirates left ST last year with no intention of trading Nate, (Braves called offered a deal), Freddie or Jack, both were offered contracts, if they take them, they are still here. Nyjer and Burnett were not on the trade docket either, the deal for Milledge and Hanrahan came along and was too good to pass up.

About the only players the Pirates had on the trade docket no matter what were Grabow and Adam LaRoach. Gorzo was a throw in.

We are talking intent to trade here,  not money.

Forgot in my rant, LVP - all ballplayers are overpaid and Freddy signed for a bit more than supposedly now we say we offered (I heard 2 for 8, the current buzz is 2 for 10) he signed for 2 for 12, close in monopoly money, DK reported said JW is open to coming back, so that might have been doable, DirtyDoug?  Takes two to tango as they say, the thing is this club needs to learn to be personable with people they deal with.  When I heard NH was shaking a finger at Sano's agent, hey I'm an old grumpy man, and I wouldn't do that to anyone, thats wrong.

By the way, Vegas is the best place to be.  Last vacation we got a free room in The Hotel, then I got a phone call that my avatar had a heart attack and passed.  I can't wait to go back, last time was awful.  You are lucky to live there, any nuke plants around?

Since some people only know one side of any discussion, the what if game! what if Chavez blows out his arm in May? is it still a horrible trade?

What if Iwamura breaks his leg and never plays again? is it a horrible trade?

The what "if's" mean exactly nothing, we have what we have and we will get what we get whether anyone likes it or not.

Finding fault is the easiest thing in the world, fixing something is another matter.

I applaud the Pirates for at least attempting to address problems that a blind person could see, right or wrong the problems have to be addressed.

I cant believe people on here (maybe i can) are already talking about what this guy will bring us in  a trade at the deadline.....This is pirate apoligists at its best.

Again, I am for winning immediatly, therfore the team is better now than 2 days ago.....still stinks though.

This is a complete contradiction to the salary purge of last season though.  If this was the route they were going to go they should have kept Freddy and co.

@ leadoff "I applaud the Pirates for at least attempting to address problems that a blind person could see, right or wrong the problems have to be addressed."

--------

agreed that they are addressing a need, but the problem is that they themselves created the need......

Biz, baby, why the bitterness?  It was a good day of baseball talk.  It was refreshing to have a lot of diverse, well thought opinions presented in a respectful manner.  That includes yours.

PoH was just clarifying with you that she wasn't contradicting anything you said.  

Try the decaf.  ;-)

Hostage

Every time you trade a higher salaried player is not a salary dump.  If the work to sign Iwamura and find he is determined to go FA and the team is not in contention then trading him could be a wise move--get something for him instead of letting him leave for nothing.  That is not uncommon in any sport--management figures out "we can't keep this guy so let's see what we can get for him.  That is what the Indians did with CC when they sent him to the Brewers.

Demery,

Being the same person aside, we seem to possess similar opinions regarding the Pirates, but I have to tell you buddy I see there is one area where we differ greatly.

I don't know how you can listen to Mark Madden and I could never in a million years find it within myself to praise him.

I actually emailed the GM of ESPN 1250 back when they fired Madden and hired Paulsen, Logan, and Crow and thanked him for the change.

You're so convincing.

They (management) created the problem they are now trying to fix, and intentionally so.

Their plan was to move essentially all veteran talent from their club, in an effort to get as much young talent as they could.  They moved them (I say trading 75-80% of your team in 2 years is just that, blowing it up).  To turn around and trade a young player for a 1 year stop gap, just so you don't look quite as bad in 2010, is a waste.

It's the principle of the matter.  The inconsistency in the execution of the plan.  If Iwamura was signed for 3 more years at a reasonable price, I'd feel differently.  He's not.  Whether he signs on for more sometime in the future is irrelevant to my thoughts on the trade.

When I first heard Iwamura's name, I thought Pirates.  When I saw they were involved in talks and the team getting him, I was very happy.  I thought they'd trade someone in the minors who's completely unproven.  That would have been the proper thing to do in my opinion, based on the Rays weak positioning in the trade.

I thought I'd be praising the move.  Then I saw it was Chavez dealt, and I disagree with the move.

Clearly, Neal is getting the message that the product on the field must improve, and soon.  Hopefully it doesn't cost us a player or players more valuable than Chavez.

GoBucs -

Nobody is saying Chavez is a bum, and just because I say (and believe) that Aki is worth 6 Chavez's doesn't mean Chavez isn't worth anything.

Chavez, according to the stats that people use to figure out these things, was worth no more than the 400K he was paid.

Aki, on the other hand, is normally worth $8M-$10M per year and yet will only be paid $4.85M.

---------

So, how do we know Morton is worth more than Chavez? After all, both throw pretty hard and had success sometimes and failures sometimes.

Here's an explanation...

Baseball is a game that involves a lot of luck. People used to think that how many runs a pitcher "gave up" (ERA) was the ultimate sign of how good that pitcher was and if you could count on them in the future.

That is not true anymore. The reason is there is a growing understanding of how important defense and luck are to a team scoring runs.

For example, a batter who hits a line drive will generally get a base hit 70% of the time. There is no measurable skill to be able to hit the ball between the shortstop and third baseman instead of right to the shortstop. If it's right to the shortstop and he catches it, oh well, that pitcher got lucky.

Same thing for grounders and fly balls as well. The fly ball was hit in the gap and went for a double, unlucky for the pitcher, because most fly balls are caught, and there's no real way for the batter to pin point where the ball was going - just a general direction.

So, to try to figure out which pitchers are getting lucky and which are unlucky, people developed metrics that try to separate out the part the pitcher can control (K's,BB,HR) and what they can't (S,D,T).

The most important of these advanced metrics for pitchers are FIP and tRA.

FIP imagines what a pitchers ERA would be if you only measure the value of HRs, BBs, and Ks. FIP imagines that every other event happened exactly equally for every pitcher. In other words, it assumes everything else is pure luck. Although this may seem crazy, the crazy thing is it is a lot more accurate at predicting future performance than ERA.

tRA is the best new metric, however. It assigns a run value to each of the kinds of contact a batter can make, like line drive, fly ball, pop up, K, BB, etc. It figures out the league average value for those events, and then estimates how many runs would be given up if they had average luck, considering all the things the batters did against them. tRA assumes there are also unearned runs given up, so to convert to ERA, you multiply by .92.

Now, these metrics aren't perfect, of course, but this is exactly the kind of thing Huntington used to determine that Joel Hanrahan was worth more than Sean Burnett. As you recall, Hanrahan had a crazy high ERA at the time, due to the Nats defense being horrible, and Burnett had a very low ERA due to the Pirates defense being exceptional.

People screamed about acquiring Hanrahan because of the high ERA, but I pointed out the discrepancy between his FIP and ERA, and said it was a good deal.

Of course, Hanrahan was without question the most valuable relief pitcher the Pirates had this year.

So, on to Morton and Chavez...

Morton ERA:  4.55 / FIP: 4.15 / tRA: 4.56 (4.12 ERA equiv)

Chavez ERA: 4.01 / FIP: 4.85 / tRA: 5.48 (5.04 ERA equiv)

You can see that for Morton, tRA and FIP are very similar because Morton's line drive rate is league average at 17.9%. Line drive rate is extremely important when determining what a pitcher's xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play) is.

Chavez's line drive rate is 20%, which might not seem like a big difference, but it is. For every 1% difference in line drive rate, batting average goes up 10 points.

You also have to take into account when evaluating these numbers that pitching as a starter is more difficult than pitching as a reliever. The same pitcher's ERA will be .30 higher as a starter than as a reliever.

So, you can see that even including the 10 run inning that Morton suffered, which was an obvious anomaly, Morton's ERA as a reliever would be estimated at 3.82, which is more than a full run lower than Chavez's 5.04.

BDComing,

Good point, but I never liked intimidations tactics, and I want this place to be free of that, its just a thing, goes back a ways.

From above:

"A consistent comment was the upside of Chavez, the heat, he got worn out by mismanagement, we could check his monthy stats on that, and the fact Iwwy is a one year guy, for now.  Some thought it made no sense to give a chip away for this year only, "

It seems that the job of Pirates fans is to complain that the players on the team are bad (and rightfully so most of the time).  But then when any of them are traded (even mediocre ones like Hinske, Burnett, Gorzelanny and Chavez), we act like they are great talents all of a sudden?

'Nobody trashed the front office for Chavez making the roster last spring more than you.'

I seem to recall NuHo blowing a gasket over Chavez making the roster last year, as well.  

Also, trading a player mid-season, that was acquired the previous off-season is not necessarily a bad move....anyone heard of Matt Holliday?  The A's made out pretty good with that haul.  Apologist/Smologist.

Biz, no nuke plants out here, unfortunately.  Let me know when you make the next trip.  Would love to get together and talk Bucs.

"just so you don't look quite as bad in 2010, is a waste."

GoBucs,

I can understand how someone would think that but to leave second base to Young would have been a disaster, IMO.  You have to be strong up the middle and to leave Young there could have been a real strain on our pitching staff.

"just so you don't look quite as bad in 2010, is a waste."

Not if it helps our younger players win a little more and be much more competitive.  Additionally, it will help our pitchers tremendously.  Ask Maholm, Duke and Ohlie what they think of this trade....I'd bet dollars to donuts they love it.

GoBucs,

"Clearly, Neal is getting the message that the product on the field must improve, and soon.  Hopefully it doesn't cost us a player or players more valuable than Chavez."

Excellent read.

I think you are right on the money.

Open question to those of you who believe Neal made a good deal.

Will you still think so if Iwamura turns out to be nothing more than yet another 4 month rent-a-player?

Will this knee jerk reaction to attempt to fix the very problems Neal created himself be worthwhile if it's only for 4 months?

Mark -

Thanks for the detail.  I agree with using all kinds of analysis, and this system is about as good as it gets.  Not always perfect of course, but if followed as a general rule I don't doubt it works much more often than it fails.

I don't doubt that Morton has more value, or potential.  I just thought it was a point that needed considered.  That some might assume one will be great but the other won't really be missed, when they've done basically the same thing in their careers to date.

Even with Chavez's lower score, I think it was unnecessary to move him.  That Tampa did as well as they did for Iwamura, when most everybody knew they were just going to buy him out, speaks to the good job that Tampa's FO does.  I'm still not sure what it says about Pittsburgh's.  It doesn't compare, but it did remind me of the sweet deal they gave to SF for Morris.  Maybe there was a greater demand for Iwamura than I think.

Biz,

You're among friends here.  I enjoy the conversation and appreciate your opinion.  

We all just want them to win some friggin games.  ;-)

NH- I somewhat agree with you.  This move is simliar to the Reds picking up Rolen (who doesn't have much left) to fill a gaping hole at a position.  No more Adam Laroche deals though.  

NH has to learn-- When dealing with the Red Sox (or maybe the Rays), just don't.  I'm not sure if we have good scouts in the AL (Iwamura will be the test, if he's not recovered, someone needs to be designated from assignment).  

Let me guess next trade w/ Red Sox-  Zack Duke for Jed Lowrie.. a year ago the Red Sox won't touch that deal.

"Will you still think so if Iwamura turns out to be nothing more than yet another 4 month rent-a-player?"

Depends on what we get in return.

And not everybody likes to play Monday morning quarterback so that they can never be proven wrong.

Ziskie,

"NuHo is going to be kicking himself for being out shooting at geese"

Shooting "at" is exactly right. 14 shots and zero geese. Turns out I am a lousy goose hunter.

But man was that fun. - I can't believe I never tried it before.

I bet I saw close to 1,000 geese today. Literally. What beautiful birds they are. That honking sound is like music.

G-man - cripes, you have Kate Gosslin as the avatar??

Stats are stats, its what you've done, not what you might do

History is what actually thought out actions one has taken, totally different, the first is reaction, the second is conscious action.  First is easier to change than the second.

So Mc Cutch can learn or develop to hit 30 dingers, so can Tabata.

Can Neal H learn to have productive relationships with those he need to?  To talk to players as people?  Which in spite of their wealth, they all are?  Even those scumbag agents.

No offense here, but Srsly?

"This move is simliar to the Reds picking up Rolen (who doesn't have much left) to fill a gaping hole at a position.  "

Stan,

Scott Rolen cost the Reds for two months a little less than what Iwamura will cost us for a full year.

Why Stan,

The tough part about this is that the Rays had already decided that if worse came to worse, they were going to buy out Iwamura. ($550,000) and let him become a free agency.

So instead we traded Chavez and will pay the guy $4.8M. - Most likely for 4 months of service.

Really doesn't make much sense.

GoBucs wrote:  It's the principle of the matter.

______________________________________________

Whenever I see this trotted out as a reason to do something I feel compelled to point this out:  In my experience, someone who tells me they did something "as a matter of principle" is usually trying to explain how they wasted all kinds of money and energy fighting some ridiculous fight or supporting some cause.  It's usually left them poorer, more bitter, and with a pretty unreasonable outlook on the world.  I'm not saying one shouldn't have principles; I'm saying that before you stick to principles for the sake of the sticking, ask yourself:  "From a purely unemotional and rational perspective, am I not better off just 'letting this one go?'"

How does this apply to the trade?  Well, I submit we shouldn't be throwing NH under the bus for backing off of his "plan for the future/youth movement" strategy, when he sees what he thinks (and some agree) is a decent deal.  If sticking to the "principle" caused the FO to pass on every good deal that was against the principle, I don't think we'd be very happy.

@NuHo:  If Iwamura is a four-month rental, I guess my opinion would depend on what we could get for him and what other options we have for 2B the rest of the way.  What if St. Louis was willing to trade Pujols and Carpenter for him?  What if Andy is hitting lights out and Pedro is ready to come up, and Iwamura is suddenly a man without a position to play?  The simple fact that he is a four-month rental won't convince me it's suddenly a horrible, horrible trade-- too many unknowns.

I really,and truly do not see how 24 hours after the trade ANYONE can say it is GOOD or BAD.The stats between the Aki and Sanchez were close.You guys are just looking to egg each other on.This place never changes.I know we all have our opinions,but this is one not worth arguing about till spring training.

Now I can call this the "knee jerk and I just wanna argue blog".I hate this time of year because we are all unhappy and everybody thinks they have the solution.Right! :-)

LVPirateFan- yes, I would love to hook up, its amazing, I always wear a Pittsburgh hat, as my the top of my head is empty (with hair) and most times I wear PGH stuff, Clemente shirt, Steeler stuff, but there are so many Pirates fans, mainly Roberto's that say things, heck, it might be a spin, but I've had strangers that have come up to me and talked about the PBC, good stuff.  They are sad, but hope

Maz - cripes your avatar - its Kate Gosselin?

Posting takes the edge off, and keeps the fires burning as long as we play well and try a little to respect other bloggers

Yes, its yet to be seen, trade wise, so are most of the recent trades, except the Nady trade, so far

"The tough part about this is that the Rays had already decided that if worse came to worse, they were going to buy out Iwamura. ($550,000) and let him become a free agency."

According to Frank:

"There was considerable interest in Iwamura from other clubs and that he would not have been a free agent if we did not reach an agreement with the Rays. Iwamura was a player who we had targeted this offseason to solidify our middle infield and we were very pleased with our ability to secure him."

Here's at least one opinion that the Bucs did well in the deal.

www.beyondtheboxscore.com/.../rays-hand-pirates-some-free-wins

I guess we have to believe everything Frank says?

"We are not targeting 2010 - or 2012, for that matter - as the year in which we think we will win. Six of the eight players we acquired in the deadline trades last year are (or shortly will be) ready for the Major Leagues. We expect to win in 2009 and would not find it acceptable to attempt to build a team that will not win until 2010 or 2012." (Feb. 5, 2009)

"We have transitioned from a very aggressive talent acquisition stage to a concerted effort to build a club that can win in 2010 and beyond." (Nov. 4, 2009)

Go Bucs,

Sometimes to improve a team you have to give up something. Did the Giants want to give up Alderson for Freddy Sanchez? No, I'm sure they didn't. But they wanted a chance to go to the playoffs and so they had to give up something.

It's important to note that not even people who don't like this trade wouldn't say that Jesse Chavez is more valuable to the Pirates than Tim Alderson. It just so happens that Chavez is pitching on the MLB club, so we've gotten to know him, whereas Alderson is pitching in the minors.

Which is more valuable to the Pirates - Andy LaRoche or Pedro Alvarez? Obviously, Pedro Alvarez, even though he has never played an MLB game.

So, the question when you trade away an MLB player is - how difficult is it to replace that player's production on the MLB roster?

That is PART OF THE COST of a trade. Huntington had to consider that replacement cost as well as the cost of Iwamura's salary when deciding whether to pay for a free agent.

For example, let's say he decided that to convince a free agent of Iwamura's value to come to Pittsburgh, he would have to pay $6M/year.

Trading for Iwamura would cost the Pirates $4.85M PLUS the cost of replacing Jesse Chavez. If replacing Jesse Chavez costs less than $1.15M, then Huntington knows it's a good deal and can pull the trigger.

In the case of Jesse Chavez, he performed at what we call "replacement" level. That means, using the advanced metrics that I explained, he was the kind of player you should expect to pay the league minimum to, or $400K. That's what a 0 WAR player means.

0 WAR relief pitchers are extremely common. They are the relief pitchers that most clubs have in AAA that aren't dominating there but are better than average. That's exactly what Chavez was last year, in fact, for the Pirates.

These are also the kind of pitchers that are very likely to be inconsistent on a year to year basis, and that means many teams let them go on waivers or leave them unprotected on the 40 man roster.

Which is why Huntington has been able to pick up at least 2 pitchers in the last year (Meek and Jackson) that were worth more than Chavez this year for absolutely nothing through Rule 5 or waivers.

Veal was also picked up this way, as you know, and although his tRA this year was terrible due to his walks, I'll bet any money that Veal will be worth more than Jesse Chavez as well.

So, while Jesse Chavez has been a nice story for the Pirates this year and we all like him as a person and possibly promising player, his story is not really all that unique in baseball. It happens over and over again on every team every year.

So, that's why Jesse Chavez is not all that super valuable. Because the Pirates can be resourceful and pick up another one without even paying a cent.

"The tough part about this is that the Rays had already decided that if worse came to worse, they were going to buy out Iwamura. ($550,000) and let him become a free agency."

Let's assume he would have become a FA tomorrow....what would the price have been?  One year, $4.8m?  No chance.  Try 2.5 times that plus.

We got a good deal, in my humble opinion.

It cost us a young arm....which I'm told by many on this blog we have waaaay to many of (with a downward plane :)  So be it.  

We improved the ML roster....which I'm told we never do.

Biz...every time we go to the Strip or downtown, I put on a Pirates polo.  My kids where there Pirates, Steeler and Penguin gear everywhere.  We get high-fives, fist bumps and good comments all the time.  Pittsburgh is alive and well in LV.

Looking at the trade with the benefit of time, the Pirates get a decent 2nd baseman for a year. But the Rays get a decent young pitcher for free. They weren't gonna pick up his option and would have had to pay 500K to let him walk. Instead, they got rid of him and get a decent young pitcher for the same 500K. Not too bad.

BTW, I probably should wait until tomorrow to post this, but a great article in SI on "competitive balance" in baseball.

sportsillustrated.cnn.com/.../index.html

I'm 99.999999% sure that Coonelly and Huntington will be have their contracts extended sometime this year. They would have to die, become severely incapacitated, or turn down the extension not be be staying on. This little trade does not change that equation at all.

It really seems silly to even think that they won't be extended.

biz-

I for one think you are on target today/tonite. I got your back on the left coast.

we paved a pothole we dug ourselves with the infield.

Doc

I had that article in the morning links this morning

One thing I've noticed about the Yankees in this World Series is that they have nearly as many runs as hits in many games. They are doing a lot of things right. It sure would be nice to see the Pirates in future years do a lot better job of turning walks, hit batters, stolen bases, & hits into runs.

LVPF - $10M is probably a bit too much for Aki, especially coming off injury. But I would guess it would be between $6M-$7M.

NutHo -

To answer you question, if Aki turns out to be a 4 month rental, I would be very excited about that and would consider it a fabulous trade.

If that happens, it's probably because Alvarez has been brought to Pittsburgh and LaRoche has moved to 2B.

The most important thing about Iwamura being on the Pirates is that from Opening Day, Andy will know that there is an option to him having a starting job in the major leagues. He will know Pedro Alvarez is coming up some day soon and that every at bat is precious for him.  

If he can outperform Aki, an established above average MLB player, at the plate, and the Pirates feel he can handle the 2nd base job, he is going to have that job and Aki will indeed be traded at or before the deadline.

However, if the Pirates approach Iwamura about an extension, that means that something has not gone the best way for the Pirates. Either Alvarez wasn't ready or Andy didn't perform to expectations.

So, yeah, the best outcome that can be hoped for is that Iwamura is a 3 or 4 month rental.

Mark...agreed.  I was thinking more along the lines of $10 mil over 2 years would have to be shelled out...similar to Freddy.