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Post-Gazette beat writers Dejan Kovacevic and Chuck Finder blog about the Pittsburgh Baseball Club.

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Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15

By Chuck Finder | 4:47 p.m.

In yet another edition of The Future Is Coming, The Future Is Coming, the franchise with the advanced-Class A champion in Lynchburg also has three of the Top 15 prospects in Class AA's Eastern League according to Baseball America today -- and Pedro Alvarez is No. 1.

Look at it this way: The Pirates don't get many No. 1s, outside of the All-Time North American Record for Consecutive Losing Seasons.

The Eastern League MVP (Carlos Santana of Akron), the son of a member of the last bunch of Pirates winners (Reading's Kyle Drabek, Doug's boy) and the next-great Giants pitcher (Madison Bumgarner) all were ranked by the sport's prospect bible as less than promising than Alvarez. Although, as BA's John Manuel wrote in a story posted today, Bowie left-hander Brian Matusz, who went 5-3 with parent-club Baltimore including victories in his final three starts with a 2.57 ERA, would've finished No. 1 except that on his way through the EL to the bigs he fell one inning short of the magazine's criteria of 20 appearances.

BA's summation of Alvarez, only for registered subscribers, begins thusly: "Alvarez had an eventful calendar year, signing late last September. . ., [starting] slowly at high Class A Lynchburg, striking out in 25 percent of his at-bats." It quotes one anonymous manager as citing this third baseman's "serious raw power" and others referring to his "plus arm" and deft hands, making up for his "modest range and agility." Portland manager Arnie Beyelor called him "a monster. He reminded me a little bit of [Boston's Kevin] Youkilis in that he's a better athlete than he looks." Alvarez hit .333 with 13 home runs, 40 RBIs, 34 walks, 59 strikeouts and a .590 slugging percentage in 222 EL at-bats.

* Of No. 10 Brad Lincoln, Alvarez's teammate and the gold-winning pitcher on the World Cup champion USA club, BA noted: "Lincoln threw more strikes this year and stood out with command of a fastball that touched 95 mph and sat at 90-93 mph." It also mentioned his fastball and curveball caused swings and misses with late movement, and his changeup has made improvement as a third pitch. Lincoln went 1-5 in 13 starts, but crafted a 2.28 ERA and allowed batters just a .228 average before he ascended to Class AAA. There, with Indianapolis, he went 6-2 with a 4.70 ERA, but 42 strikeouts against 10 walks in 61 1/3 innings.

* Of No. 15 Jose Tabata, BA wrote: "Tabata has been a fixture on prospect lists since he was a 17-year-old in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2005." Despite being traded, having his effort publicly questioned and going through the arrest last spring of his wife on charges of child abduction, among others, this outfielder has continued to carry "impressive tools" such as an "above-average bat" and a "strong arm." The question with Tabata: power. He had two homers in 228 at-bats with Altoona, three more in 134 at-bats with Class AAA Indianapolis -- where his .276 batting average was a slight dip from his .303 with the Curve. He compiled 22 doubles in 362 total at-bats.

The magazine earlier in the week named Alvarez No. 3 -- behind Matusz and BA's Minor League Player of the Year Jason Heyward of Myrtle Beach -- and infielder Chase D'Arnaud No. 13 among prospects in the Carolina League that Lynchburg won. It also had pitcher Rudy Owens No. 11 and 2009 fourth-overall pick Tony Sanchez, a catcher, at No. 12 among South Atlantic League prospects. Compensatory-round pick Victor Black, a pitcher, was ranked No. 6 in the New York-Penn League.

Interesting to note, BA looked back five years. . . when the Mets' David Wright was their No. 1 EL prospect, the Giants' Matt Cain was No. 3 and No. 6 -- just ahead of Detroit's Curtis Granderson and Philadelphia's Ryan Howard -- was Zach Duke.

Alvarez's total 95 RBIs topped all Pirates teams, minors and majors; his 27 homers were second only to Garrett Jones' 33 Indy-Pirates combo platter/Photo: MLB


Posted Oct 09 2009, 04:56 PM by Chuck Finder

Comments

Kragbax wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 6:04 PM

Woot... No 1! ranked prospect... not firsties or anything... lol

mazfromiowa wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 7:12 PM

I'm sure someone will throw cold water on this hot news.The question is which person it will be.Let's wait and see.Hmmm

madturk2008 wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 8:04 PM

Okay Maz since no one took you up on it yet I will take a stab at it.

Let's see...

Ah  "plus arm" and deft hands, making up for his "modest range and agility."

So this tells me if the ball is hit right at him he can catch it and throw it all the way to first base.  Gee another great pick!

How as that?  Good to see we have some minors leaguers on the way.  Now if we can add more or the last draft will produce some as well.  Next year can't get here fast enough.  I guess it's not good to wish away time though.  

JuniataKid wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 8:44 PM

I'm waiting for the first poster to lament how all three will be traded for prospects in four years. You know that one's coming...

mazfromiowa wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 8:52 PM

How about this is the first good player we have drafted in 17 years! And we should have brought him up last Sept.Or we'll never give him enough money to keep him.Still waiting for the complaints!

mazfromiowa wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 8:56 PM

Or maybe he might be the next Chad Hermansen?

macsinthebox wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 8:59 PM

               I cant wait to see PA up here, his power bat will be a tremendous asset. The question remains will he be able to play 3rd effectively?  there will be a spot for him regardless but our lack of a second baseman will force Andy to 2nd which means we need him to be a 3rd baseman, question is can he handle the hot corner??

MarkInDallas wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 9:10 PM

Pablo Sandoval is not the greatest defensive 3B. I'll bet Alvarez is better than him. Panda and ARam are both -5 UZR/150 third basemen. He's not going to be like Andy probably, but neither was Andy like Andy last year.

MarkInDallas wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 9:21 PM

I'll say I'm glad the Pirates were able to take Alvarez with #2. The 2008 #1 pick Tim Beckham is still supposed to develop into a very good shortstop, but he's still 19 and in A ball with a fairly low average after 1 year in the minors.

That's the thing if 2010 brings Bryce Harper for the Bucs. He won't be able to help us anytime soon. It's a long view pick like McCutchen (drafted 2005).

Jose Lind's Pants wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 9:27 PM

Has anybody said how long they think it will take this Harper kid to reach the majors? He'll be 17 next week. Will it really be 3 or 4 years?

MarkInDallas wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:01 PM

From what I hear, it will probably be a while before Harper is ready for the majors. I've heard he can hit mammoth HRs in batting practice, but can't hit breaking balls right now. He probably will have to go through all levels of the system, starting in rookie ball. He's a Boras client so you know he won't sign until the deadline and next year will be lost.

I would guess two years at the different levels of A ball and then anyone's guess from there. I would guess 4 years at the soonest.

WhyStanBelinda wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:07 PM

Mark-I agree with you 100%, but I'd put him in RF and leave him there.  I think this would be a priority for him to sign ASAP, have the pirates give him an offer in the Alvarez/Ackerly catagory, and basicaly state have the Pirates have the point, sign on this early, we want you in the Majors ASAP.  

I don't see the Nationals selecting him.

JAL wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:34 PM

Twins just did a pirates--bases loaded no outs in 11th--no runs so of course Teixeira hit a homer in the bottom and the Twins go down 2-0.

JAL wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:37 PM

Always leery of teen prospects like Harper--you never know what you are getting

DMac wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:44 PM

Twins got hosed on a call by the ump too.  

JAL wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 10:47 PM

aNd now I am out so good night to all and good night to all

leadoff wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 11:20 PM

WSB

I think this would be a priority for him to sign ASAP, have the pirates give him an offer in the Alvarez/Ackerly catagory, and basicaly state have the Pirates have the point, sign on this early, we want you in the Majors ASAP.  

_________________________

He can't hit quality high school pitchers, why pay him a fortune when the top 5 draft picks after him all have something the Pirates need and there are some good ones in that group.

Reading wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Fri, Oct 9 2009 11:33 PM

Unfortunately, given 17 straight years of losing, and (without checking) probably a top 10-15 pick each year, the Pirates ought to have a never ending supply of (or at least 2 or 3) guys just like PA at various levels of the organization that are being developed for the big market teams and could be reloaded each year when the inevitable selling off of the best players occur.    

Jose Lind's Pants wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:01 AM

I'm going to disagree with JAL. Not just for the pleasure of disagreeing with him, even though it is fun.

If what they say is true, even though there is a chance that he won't pan out, a team in the Pirates position has to risk that possibility because of the supposed upside.

Assuming the numbers are in the range of $3M - $4M apart for Mr. Harper and Mr. Unpolished Rock that Neal finds. That works out to around $500K - $666K extra Mr. Harper will cost per year under control of the Pirates. Now the drafted player is going to be inevitably jettisoned. If both players progress close to where they are projected. Wouldn't the projected star bring more in return than the projected solid player? Enough to make $500K a year seem like a bargain?

I think it's likely a moot point. The opportunity to take 2 of the elite players in the game doesn't come around often. This is why the Nationals won't let Bryce Harper pass.

emoneypitt wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:16 AM

If Harper does fall to the Pirates, they have to take the chance IMO. I'm sure he's not being touted by the experts as a once in a generation player for nothing. Even if it does take 4 years for him to get to the majors, he's still only 21 then and you get most of his prime years if he does turn out to be the real deal.

MarkInDallas wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:17 AM

JLP -

I think it's going to depend on whether they really see Harper as an elite impact talent or not, and if there is another elite impact talent available or not.

DK has already said the FO doesn't see Harper as being in the same class as Strasburg. They like him, but they don't see him as quite that can't miss.

I think if they do think Harper is an elite impact talent and is available and they don't see another elite impact player available, then they would take Harper. Just because he might not see the majors for 4 or 5 years doesn't mean they won't take him. The Pirates will still need players in 5 years.

It's often said that in the MLB draft you shouldn't ever draft for immediate need - you should draft to get the most talent possible.

Toomey309 wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:22 AM

"He can't hit quality high school pitchers, why pay him a fortune when the top 5 draft picks after him all have something the Pirates need and there are some good ones in that group."

1. Every scout around projects him to be a star and the # 1 available player.(Did give me that bs about scouts being wrong before because it goes both ways.  While not everyone lives up to the hype, not every becomes a bust.)

2.He is only seventeen and supposed to be a junior in high school.  Don't you think that you would press a little bit when you have all that hype. Look at alvarez's Ks in Lynchburg.  I'll take 2 seasons as a 15 and 16 year old, over a short summer league where the whole baseball world is expecting you to hit 600 ft hr.  He only struck out 5 times during his sophmore year.

3. Amazing Power and Amazing Arm(If he doesn't stay at catcher, he has the athleticism to play of and he will have one of the best arms in the league.)

4. If he doesn't live up to the hype, he could still be a star in the league.

jersey joe wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:31 AM

                     ANNIVERSARY GATHERING

                        October 24th, noon time

                         Vincents of Greentree

                               Special Guest

                            Mr Frank Coonelly

                       LImited seating available

                        RESERVE YOUR SEAT

                                       to

                          tjfran@comcast.net

                            No tie requirement

jersey joe wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:32 AM

                      Additional gathering news              

Thsoe not in attendance can submit Questions for MR. Coonrlly emailling to

                        tjfran@comcast.net

Those in attendance will allow everyone to ask a question before asking another one, please

MarkInDallas wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:34 AM

Reading -

I did a comparison of the Littlefield draft picks earlier this year, and at the time, in every year of his drafts, the very next player picked was much superior to the pick he made.

You could say now that possibly Andrew McCutchen was indeed a better pick than Jay Bruce, but that's still to be determined.

Of course, the real killer was the #1 Bullington pick. There were numerous great players available that draft.

jersey joe wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 12:47 AM

Toomey,  Some folks just never learn to hit a curve ball.  I followed leadoffs suggestion and watched him bat and I came to the same conclusion as leadoff, at this point over rated.  Just one game I saw but he was no Pete Rose and at his age a gamble.

jersey joe wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 1:49 AM

When was the last time the pirates had minor league player rankings like this?

Maz, before you ask how long it will take for someone to mention the good work of Neal getting two of the three guys into the system in his first two years on the Job, I will.

I will give way to thundercrack to point out the shortfall.

It seems that Tony Sanchez is building some support.

CityOfChampions wrote re: Alvarez EL's top prospect, Lincoln and Tabata also ranked in Top 15
on Sat, Oct 10 2009 3:13 PM

I'm with those saying Harper looks about as fine as any kid coming out of high school ever has. And he has a solid head on his shoulders, too. If ever there were a teenager worth a number one draft pick, this is the one. Don't forget, the best player currently wearing a Pirate uniform was drafted out of high school. I doubt Harper will fall to us. But if he does, he's definitely one we have to then grab.