Dumatrait heading to Pittsburgh, Karstens on bereavement list

they'll probably designate Bautista for assignment

ALMOST FIRSTIES!

Welcome back, Phil, and hang in there...

I just had an interesting lunchtime discussion with two co-workers, both Brewers fans.  They're certain that the Brewers are done this year, and now have to face Prince Fielder's last year under contract.  

We agreed that there is no way PF will come back to the Brewers (he's very likely to command north of $18 mill a year, and the Brewers are strapped), so they'll max out his value in trades.  It's probably going to be either an AL team for DH, or perhaps the Giants for any pitcher below Lincecum.  The Giants have lots of table-setters, but need a table-clearer.

So the Brewers org has no starting pitching (and I mean none) and will be out a first baseman (again, their cupboard is bare).  Care to speculate on a potential PGH-MKE trade?  We do have some guys who can play first base, and a pitcher or two...

Hopefully Phil can recapture what he had last year before the shoulder troubles began.

wozzle

The day Fielder becomes a Pirate, would be the day I'd no longer be a Pirate fan.

Also Fielder would never ever become a Pirate, because it would be stupid for the Pirates to spend that much money on Fielder when in 5-6 years they'll have to worry about locking up their own guys, i.e. McCutchen, Alvarez, etc.

There's no way Fielder would come to Pittsburgh - agreed.  But the Brewers are gonna be in the market for a 1B and any pitching help they can get.  My question is, who would the FO be willing to trade, and are there any Brewer bodies who could help PBC?

Well as for 1B who do we have we could even use in a Fielder deal? Pearce, Clement, Jones would all be a no, and FO wouldn't move Alvarez, so theres all our 1B types. As for pitching I'm not willing to part with an Alderson or Duke, which possibly both would need to be involved in that trade, to get a one year rental player. So basically theres no way the PBC could get Fielder without selling the farm. We've got a good farm system, and NH and FC have made it 1000% better, but it isn't built up enough yet to even think about a trade like that.

Reposting from previos thread:

@ pghboyinca

I don't think Origdanno was saying Morris was a finished product at all (is any "prospect" considered a finished product?).  He was saying that rather than LaRoche (as you had sort of elluded to inyour post before his), Morris was the top piece in the deal -- a 20 year old coming off TJ, but still a TOP pitching prospect in LA's farm system.

And to your point about getting Morris after he had TJ -- Top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek for the Phillies is coming off TJ.  Would you consider it a bad thing if Neal somehow acquired him?  The TJ surgery shouldn't really be a factor.  Now, his poor performance since arriving (although he has been shutdown 2wice -- end of last year & beginning of this season -- since arriving) is def a point of criticism.

And, as I think others have pointed out, there's still a bunch load of time for these trades to really be judged.  Yes, so far, the return for J-Bay has been "under-whelming" but that doesn't mean that Morris doesn't turn it around next season and pitch lights out on his way to the PBC and Andy hits .300 with 15 HRs.

As you know, I'm a big Andy guy (and he has leaped mountains defensively from last year to this -- and offensively to.... .166 to .260 in 1 offseason) and I think he'll come around.  Your certainly entitled to write him off, but I'm just asking that you maybe reconsider until we see how he does next season is all.

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@ Joggin George

I basically put Veal in there because we don't have a lefty option out of the pen right now.  If he can get his control straightened out over the winter/ST, with his velocity, he could be a nice 1 inning lefty late in ball games.

I def wouldn't be opposed to him starting in AAA, but that was my rationality in doing it.

Thanks for the feedback.

Also a Brewer fan here.  The Brewers were rumored to be talking in the preseason of trading Fielder for Cain.  If you think about it, it does make sense for both teams.  Not sure if the rumors were true.. Or if they were, who pulled out.  

I wouldn't doubt PF being traded.  Their lineup could be Riveria at C, Gamel at 1B, Weeks at 2B, Escobar at SS, McGhee at 3b.  Hart and Braun in the OF.  They need a CF but maybe Bourgeois is it.  Notice Hardy is also missing.  

They really, really need starting pitching behind Gallardo.  Fielder is their only chip and the minors are pretty bare.  There's not a lot available in the FA market either.

They could be in trouble for several years.  Remember this when you hold up the Brewers as an example of what the Pirates should do/be.

Wozzle - IF we chose to help Milwaukee out, I'd trade Pearce for JJ Hardy.  He's had an awful year, he's back in AAA, but he's had success the past few years otherwise.

origdanno

"They could be in trouble for several years."

Ahhhh thats great news to hear! I hate the Brewers!

Why I Didn't

Thanks for saving me the time.  Most of these trades will take 3 -5 years to figure out if they are good or not.  Maybe Morris gets traded in the off season for a single A or Rookie League SS who in six years turns out better than Hanley Ramierez.  The Nady deal is paying off.  And as much as you may not admit it, the Bay deal is also paying a divendend.   LaRoche, at worse, is a serviceable 3B wheras the team didn't have one beyond Alvarez who didn't sign until a year ago and was out-of-shape and an unknown.  The Pirates, with LaRoche, did not have to sign a Joe Randa for this year and possibly next year and Pedro doesn't have to be rushed.  

Is LaRoche a better than average 3B.  No.  Not at this time.  Could he be?  Yes.

diehard

I think it would take more then PEarce to get Hardy, maybe a A or AA player. But Hardy is a guy, if the asking price is right, I wouldn't mind seeing the Pirates pick up at all.

If they are going to move him....the winter meetings make a whole lot more sense.

He's coming off of a pretty strong year (again) and the team that gets him will have him for the whole season instead of just a portion of it. Also, you (Brewers FO) eliminate the risk of him having a slow start of the season or getting hurt and watching his trade value go down quicker than a Primanti's sandwich in his hands.

origdanno

How is the Bay trade paying off? Yes we got LaRoche, but whne you trade a 30+ homer, 100+ RBI guy who is the face of the franchise I'd expect more in return then a serviceable 3rd basemen, a pitcher with a 5 ERA and is in his second consecutive full season at single A, a OF who has been AWFUL, and whatever you want to call Hansen. Now I'm not blaming NH or anyone for this trade because no one knew that Hansen would be terrible then get hurt, Moss would be terrible, and that Morris wouldn'y be able to get out of single A and get suspended. But it hasn't payed off.

InZiskWeTrust

"Also, you (Brewers FO) eliminate the risk of him having a slow start of the season or getting hurt and watching his trade value go down quicker than a Primanti's sandwich in his hands."

That would never happen, remember hes a vegetarian! So his trade value would drop quicker then a tofu burger in hsi hands!

No problem OrigDanno.

Now if we could only do something about the fact that you're a Brewers fan.........

Hehehehehehehehehe ;)

I've been a big fan of Andy's since he came and I agree that he's made a HUGE improvement defensively -- he's 5th in the NL in Fielding.  His offense has improved, as already pointed out, by 100 points.  He is just shy of his 26th birthday -- I think he's got time to improve his power numbers.

Veal...I think they're going to send him to the minors next year and stretch him out to be a starter.  I think I heard that on a radio show, or when they had NH on the pre-game show.  

Fielder?  Here?  I don't think he'd get offered what he thinks he's worth to play here, not that I'm sure I'd want to see him in black and gold anyway...especially if it means letting Zach go.  (I haven't seen Alderson, so I'm not going to put him in that category yet.)

Roster moves--always fun to speculate on who goes off the 40 and 25--and it could be two --one from the 25 and someone different off the 40

Whyidid'tseeroberto,

   There are success stories with TJ surgery and there are some who don't come back as strong. My point is if that is your key piece in a trade with JBAy you are not doing your job. And please don't use Morris and Kyle Drabek in the same sentence. They are not even remotely close in who how they are viewed by baseball G.M.'s. The inclusion of Drabek killed the Hallady deal. I hope Morris wins 4 Cy Youngs being a Pirate fan but that is a huge leap of faith. He will first have to start figuring out how to get batters out in the low minors.

I always laugh when people point to Andy's "improvement". He was the worst regular player in all of MLB after the trade deadline last year. He is just below average this year so I guess that is improvement.    

so OrigDanno is a Brewers fan--I was wondering why he did not have an avatar :)

DMac

Yes next year Veal will be sent to the minors and made into a starter.

Does anyone here do the "Streak for the Cash" on ESPN?  Just a quick question...

Where do they keep getting these good looking ladies to do the "Streak Speak"?  Molly Querim (sp?), Jenny Dell, another woman who I forget her name.....

And why are all these hot ladies commenting on picking winners in this "fantasy" game?  I need to find me's 1 of 'em.....

Went to school up there when they were in the American League.  It was great to have a National and American League team to root for.  Got to admit it though, they have been the most classless team I have seen in a long time. Hard to root for them.  The Karstens thing was a joke.  Fielder charging the clubhouse after a game knowing his teammates and security wouldn't let him in the Dodger Clubhouse is another example.  If he was that mad, then do something immediately after getting hit or following the Dodgers in from the field.  What a joke.

@ JAL

Well OrigDanno is a Brewers/Buc fan I think.

@ pghboyinca

I wasn't trying to compare Morris and Drabek, just simply pointing out that a TOP pitching prospect (TJ or not) is a TOP pitching prospect.  Wasn't trying to imply that they're on the same level (b/c they're not...yet, hehehehe)

And to your point, "My point is if that is your key piece in a trade with JBAy you are not doing your job." If Morris becomes a Cy Young winner (b/c he was/still is a TOP pitching prospect) was Neal doing his job (according to you)?  

It is certainly fair to say that up to this point, the Bay trade is not working out well for the PBC, but (again, there's ALWAYS a but) give it another year before you totally write the return off.

And I'm glad to see your at least acknowledging that Andy has "improved".

Marty:

How's the Holliday trade working out for the A's?  How's the Lee trade working out for the Indians?  When you trade established guys for prospects, you can't determine whether it was a good trade or bad for a few years.  In our case, it's been one year.  

JAL - No avatar so I can fly under the radar.  

OrigDanno - Agreed, it would have to be Pearce or Clement and a prospect - they might go for Jones straight-up for Hardy (I wouldn't). Rather than Hardy, I'd consider Mitch Stetter, a lefty reliever - reasonably capable, 28 yo, 3.93  ERA. I'd give up either Pearce or Clement for that.

Complaining about the Bay trade when the Nady trade paid off so much is like complaining that you lost $10K in Microsoft stock when your Apple stock has made you $100K.

Would you say - Ah, I'm such a bad trader! I lost $10K! No, you'd say - Wow, overall it was a pretty good year.

@Marty

How fast does a tofu sandwhich fall?  

OrigDanno

Just makes it easier to follow posts with one, especially when several no avatar posters are around.

Orig, please get an avatar, I'm very confused.

NO! NO! I'm NOT saying anything about a trade for Fielder!  I'm looking at a trade for a capable left-handed reliever for either Pearce or Clement, and maybe an A-ball prospect.  I'm all for taking advantage of the Brewers when they're down.

PG Server, great analogy...

Maybe I should get an avatar because I never said the Pirates should trade for Fielder and definitely not Hardy.  I do like Stetter though and wouldn't mind grabbing him.  But if I am the Brewers, I need a starting pitcher back ready to pitch in the majors.  It may mean that the Brewers would have to add a low level prospect plus Stetter to get someone like McCutcheon.

Phil's gonna make us forget all about......what's his name?  See, I already forgot!

I'd say there are a lot of questions on the team, and it will probably take most of next year to answer them.

=================================================

#1. PICK 2 - Milledge / Jones / Clement / Pearce?

Jose Tabata will be in the outfield most of next year. That will leave either Milledge/Jones in OF and Jones/Pearce/Clement at 1B. The two strongest hitters will win those spots. Which means if Jones isn't playing everyday, you have to ask yourself which 2 of the other 3 are better hitters than him. My answer is none of them.

#2. CAN RONNY CEDENO REALLY HIT? Unless he falls through the floor, he is likely to be a long term solution here as Diaz in AAA has much more work to do on that.

#3. PICK 1 - ANDY / DY? The second base job of the future depends on whether Andy can hit better than Delwyn can field. I give the edge to DY.

#4. HANRAHAN - POTENTIAL CLOSER? I'm guessing yes.

#5. DAN MCCUTCHEN / BRAD LINCOLN? We'll see...

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Once these questions are answered, then we can start preparing ourselves for the arrival of Alvarez!

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My guesses:

#1. OF - Tabata, McCutchen, Jones 1B. Clement

#2. Cedeno will have an OPS of around .725

#3. DY

#4. Yes

#5. Yes - and No

Oddly enough, the Brewers haven't prepared for the day Fielder would leave the fold - they got nothin' at 1B.  They considered moving Gamel, but his ML stint was pretty bad.  He's another "tearing up AAA" guy, I think.  

Posted this on the last thread just before the move here--on lefty relievers--gives some info --from the morning blog links a couple of weeks ago

www.buccofans.com/.../pirates-notebook-how-important-are-left.html

Maybe we can send Matt Capps to the Braves...

They have a 1B that is hitting over .400 and has 6HR this month that could solve our 1B problem...   That of course would be none other than Adam LaRoche.  

@ OrigDanno

As soon as I saw Braun show up whoever the pitcher was that he hit that walkoff off of last year, compounded by the whole "pull out our shirt" thing, then compounded by all the garbage this year...I'd have to say that the Brewers are my most hated team...taking 5 of 6 from them since the break has been a nice accomplishment.

And, they need to go back to the AL Central.  All divisions should have 5 teams (not 1 with 6 and 1 with 4...quite unfair if you ask me)..KC needs to be moved to the AL West and Milwaukee can go back to the AL Central.  Then everyone will be on an even playing field (well...sort of...there is that whole "small market" vs. "big market" thingie)

I'm not sure why we would want Phil to recapture what he had last year.

What he had produced a 5.26 era and a 1.58 whip.

Not sure how that would help anybody.

Or have our expectations and standards declined that far and I missed the memo?

@PG Server

Agree - Lots of questions to be answered.  My optimistic opinion is that they Bucs will be ready to compete for playoff spot in 2011.  I believe some of those questions will be answered through next year and at that time will start to see the light at the end of this long... long... tunnel.

I will say that I feel Milledge will still earn the starting LF spot and could be a steal.  Of course, I also think Gorzo will be the guy we will regret trading away.

Whydidn't,  

First and foremost I am a Pirate fan and i'd love to see all our acquisitions work out.  But I have never seen such low expectations wether it is someone saying trade A worked out so therefore trade B is O.K. to suck. Or Andy's improvement. The guy was bad last year it was laughable. His defense is much better but he seldom drives the ball, can't hit with men on base and is hitting .260 Unquestionably he is in hte bottom 3-4 3rd baseman in baseball. And as far as him just turning 26, please 90% of guys who make it are entering their prime at that age, If he were 22 or 23 maybe . He also had excellent training and instruction with the Dodgers to maximize his potential. What you see is what you are going to get, I see him as a light average hitter with no power, decent glove, below average baserunner. He will not be a starter on any team with promise. I could be wrong but look back in the archives and I have been saying this since the day the trade was made.    

"Dumatrait heading to Pittsburgh"

Now wait just a doggone second. - Just last week the mantra was that lefties in the bullpen was an overrated concept????

These guys flip flop more than John Kerry.

@NuHo

Re:  Phil Dumatrait stats

I think the people remember his early starts last year where he had some success rather than some of the starts just before the injury.  And yes, those numbers aren't very flattering when you look at them as a whole.  

The Brewers have been done for awhile now, and they knew it. When they cut Hall and demoted Hardy, the stuff hit the fan, and their play @ PNC this past week reflected it. They were listless and played without any semblance of enthusiasm.

Their strategy to put all their eggs in last year's basket is now coming back to bite them in the butt, as they had some injuries, Sabbathia is long gone, none of their "prospects" have developed, and now it turns out Fielder isn't as crazy about playing in Milwaukee as they thought, not to mention that he and Braun are more like punks that they are leaders in the clubhouse.

Their example, now that the development stage is past, is a good one for the Pirates to avoid. Now that the Bucs are in the situation they're in, they just need to stay the course, avoid expensive free agents and keep any of their own players that perform.

In my mind, trading one of our high level pitching prospects is not a good idea, unless you could get a top notch power hitting outfielder in return, which ain't gonna happen. If you look at even very good teams like the Dodgers, Cardinals and Yankees, they seem to be in panic mode to add failed cast offs to the back of their rotation.

The problem with starting pitchers is they are prone to injury and are very inconsistent year to year. The way to mitigate that is to have a couple of starters who could step in and perform well.

The Pirates have been very good this year at creating that kind of depth, and we're about to see if McCutchen and Lincoln can be part of that or not.

Beneath those two, the Pirates only have Moskos and Alderson at AA, which will be their next crop of hopefuls.

In addition, Duke and Maholm will be entering their pre-free agency years, and might need to be replaced by one of the new comers.

Anyway, I just don't see enough depth yet to have one of those pieces be deemed expendable.

Re:  Milwaukee

I can't fault them too much - they had their chance last year and went for it in acquiring Sabathia.  They had an exciting run last year that didn't work out.  They knew that they had a short window and took their shot.  

@JAL--are you all set for Brewers game on Sun?

@PG Server

I agree with your assessments for next year. Also, I think that's going to result in some trades...which will probably also get the fan base riled up. "WHAT?! Trade Pearce for only a PROSPECT? Nutting is salary dumping AGAIN!!" Ad nauseam.

I just hope they keep shooting for young, low-level players with higher upside when they trade these mediocre guys.

Pghboy,

To your point, I think with just about any other club, LaRoche would be a utility infielder.

Well heck, now that I say that, st of the Pirates would probably be backups for most of the other MLB clubs.

@Why Didn't

I've always felt that the Brewers should stay in the NL Central, the Astros should move to the NL West, and the Diamondbacks should go to the AL West.

Only in Pittsburgh would fans be satisfied, or conditioned to accept a .260 hitter with 6 HR's hitting cleanup.

My goodness people, have some pride for crying out loud.

Rum

Don't know--have not heard anything on it from anyone.

Now, now NuHo, let's not bring up hypocritical comments, considering you were an advocate of a the complete blow-up of the 2009 team after the Nyjer Morgan trade....

...or should we call you KerryHostage?

@ Server

I count nine possible starters either here or in AAA.  They are Duke. Maholm, Ohlie, Morton, Karstens, Hart, Ascanio, Dumatrait, and McCutcheon.  Now the jury is out on most of them but there is some depth.  That's not counting fillers such as Veal and Hacker.  Hacker stock is dropping and Veal is an unknown.

Following up this group is Lincoln (year + away) and Alderson (year + minimum).  Pretty decent group.  Maybe add Moskos as well as he has pitched lately.

At Lynchburg you have Adcock, Locke, Morris and Owens

Then you really get in to the kids at WV and State College, Bradenton, DR Academy and recently signed HS pitchers not yet assigned.

I think the depth is looking real good.  We should have five established pitchers next year with two "backups."   Then Lincoln and Alderson hopefully become guys to push their way in to the rotation.

So I think you can make a trade with one of starters and really not feel like there's a whole there.  Because honestly, most of our guys are 3-5s and are interchangeable.

ants marching=======================================

Afternoon mates, good tidings

My guess with the 40 is that someone got claimed/traded, just a guess though, second option is Bautista as has been noted.

On realignment of divisions -

There has to be even numbers of teams in both AL and NL. That's why the Brewers had to move to the NL when the Diamondbacks insisted on being in the NL. That was a smart move for Selig. Nobody else wanted to do it at the time, but Selig saw the opportunity.

It's hard for any central time zone team to be in a west division. The Rangers hate that. The late start of all their division away games affects their TV contract.

@PG Server, agreed - I wouldn't trade a prospective starter for a reliever and a prospect.  Gotta see what Cutch v2.0 brings to the mound.  I'm saying that perhaps we could get a decent lefty reliever from a team whose needs match our "depth" at 1B.

@PressKyle:  My only surprise has been that it took so long for the Brewers to tank.  

@ NuHo: "Only in Pittsburgh would fans be satisfied, or conditioned to accept a .260 hitter with 6 HR's hitting cleanup.

My goodness people, have some pride for crying out loud."

===============================

In a rebuilding year, you try stuff.  Some of it works, some of it doesn't.  But to pass judgement on a guy in his first full year of MLB is, shall we say, less than astute.

@ Hostage: I think it is a case where the rehab assignment being over, they have to bring him up. I am not sure he is ready at this point.