Prospect D'Arnaud out for weeks

Reposting my projection from last thread because I seriously want to get your takes on this...

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@Leadoff: "I think it is time for people to get out of the past and get into the present."

I'll go one step further.  I'm going to the future, 2011 to be exact...

In 2011 i see a balanced lineup of:

OF: Clutch, Milledge and either Tabata or Moss (possible Jones if Alvarez at 1B or Doumit if he's moved to protect health).  Gorkys and maybe others pushing from AAA.

1B: Jones or Alvarez

2B: ?

SS: Wilson in last year of extension which i think he accepts

3B: Alvarez or Andy

C: Doumit (or JJ or Sanchez if Doumit moved to OF or traded)

SP: Rotation in no particular order: Lincoln, Duke, Maholm, Morton, Gorzy, Ohlie...yes, i know that's 6...and possibly pushed by P prospects recently or soon to be picked up.

Bullpen: Who knows?  That's an annual crapshoot for almost any team.

Possible bottlenecks developing in SP rotation and OF, which lends to trade bait for missing pieces, which is cheaper than free agency.  Relatively low cost lineup allows for opportunity for "real" free agents, at least 2nd tier acquisitions, but i dont count on that at all until PBC actually, you know, does it.  Just once.

Bottom line: I'm projecting a balanced team...good rotation with chance of being very good, fair to good D, fair to good hitting, average (but at least not poor) power.  Balance with a tilt towards pitching.  May not win a division but could be competitive, young and starting to challenge for something.

Thoughts??

Drew

Post from previous thread

Well sure. Keep winning those battles of not spending market value and we can look forward to another 16 years of losing.

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You left one big one out. Do you think JR will be managing this team in 2011?

Leadoff of the Pack (always wanted to say that)...

RE: your Q whether i see JR as manager in 2011, i'll give a weak projection of YES.

Reasons I may be wrong:  I think 2010 will be a tough year.  Growing discontent lead to more and more calls for his head.  FO could say...no improvement, you're out.

Reasons i think i'm right...but NOT overly confident: I think FO genuinely respects JR and his work, i think FO doesnt much listen to people outside their immediate orbit, including fans or press.  If they think they're right, they do what they believe in, right or wrong.

Now here's what i think is also an interesting Q.  If JR makes it thru 2010, during that offseason between '10 and '11, JR will have 1 year left on contract.  Do they extend at that point, fire at that point, or say manage out the current contract and we'll talk during or after '11 now that we see what you can do with talent?

I have no idea but i think it will be interesting to see if he makes it thru '10.

Drew

I think the Pirates like what JR is doing now, I believe they want to win sometime between now and 2011. If it comes down to they are not winning in the timetable they themselves have set up then heads will roll, you can bet Huntington is not going before JR.

Another prospect injury--those thumbs are a problem.

Lead - you may be right re: heads, meaning JR, which is why i think JR in '11 is so hard to predict.  My prediction that he'll make it is given without much backbone behind it.

I dont think they push him out for another development type manager.  i think they judge him to be a good developer.  If they push him out, I believe it will be because they think it's time to challenge for the division and they dont perceive him as strategically/tactically able to drive to the top.  just a weak guess, though, on my part.

JAL - I think they'll thumb their noses at these injuries.  But all these young players sure have green thumbs.  All these injuries, the must be all thumbs.  These guys are going to have to thumb a ride to the emergency room.  I guess a thumb injury beats a sharp thumb in the eye.

Sorry.

@Drew - re JR

I'll grant you that AdLa has come around, development wise, but I don't think JR is doing much as far as developing my man Moss.....

Pitchers have not progresses much either, IMO, Gorzy, Paulie, and Snello to name three off the top of my head

Biz/Drew

I think JR does what the front office wants him to do at this point in time, he puts up with players being taken away from him that could help him win now, replacing them with prospects.

I believe when this team is built to the point that the FO thinks they should win. The FO will be much less forgiving of JR if they think they have the horses in place.

Predicting wheter a manager will will be around 2 yewars hence is impossible--too many variables.  

Drew

That was thumb post--Thumb people might even agree with you.  Wouldn't that be thumbthing?  That thumbs up all I have to say about that subject :)

JAL - Thumbs up to you...I like yours better than mine.  

I agree to hard to predict manager 2 yrs out...variables include what does FO think of him in 2 yrs...who knows?  That's why i was so wishy washy with my prediction.

Wouldn't d'Arnaud necessarily have to miss more than three weeks since "the thumb will remain in a cast for a month, after which he will have to rehabilitate it before resuming play?"

Biz - you may be selling your man Moss a little short...he's starting to show some signs of pop.  at least i hope so.

Did you mean AnLa rather than AdLa starting to develop under JR?

I wondered why he hadn't played the last two games. Here's to a quick recovery, Chase.

I'd say that D'Arnaud's next game will be either in the Arizona Fall League...Instructional League or spring training. If he's in a cast for a month...and figure a couple of weeks...at least...after that...you're pretty much past September 1st. I doubt he comes back to play a couple of games.

Thunder and Jimm bibby

Think you have it--probably no more with Lynchburg this year--a month in cast takes him to mid August then a couple of weeks to rhab and Lynchburg season almost over.  

I have about 10 minutes left before i head out for the day.  Any other comments about my projection for 2011 serious competitiveness? (first post of this thread.)  interested as much in disagreement as agreement.  My views are still developing and i want to see where anyone sees holes in my thinking.

Drew

Enjoy the rest of the day.  You make some good points and several positions have a number of possibilities.  The outfield may be very strong with a good player used in a trade just because too many players to use.

ants marching============================================

 Which one is better of the 2 players stats you see below?

Andy LaRoche 85 295 40 78 16 4 4 114 34 28 50 2 0 .264 .338 .386 .725

Brandon Moss       73 223 29 57 15 2 3 85 23 16 43 0 2 .256 .314 .381 .695

 You can see that the last 4 percentages of each are ba, obp, slg and OPS. Look at the number of HR's, and RBI's and each is approximately 3/4 in LaRoche's favor but then you look at AB's and Moss only has 3/4 of LaRoches ab's which makes that dead even. Now consider this, LaRoche has been trotted out there every day no matter what the situation while Moss frequently gets pulled for 2-3 games at a time and can't develop a rhythm and a lot more of his AB's are as a pinch hitter which is much more difficult. I think anyone would consider them both slightly above average defensively with equal speed. One plays a corner outfield spot and one plays a corner infield spot where power numbers should be almost identical. Here is the hilarious part, in all the future lineups I see on this thread LaRoche is the 3rd baseman and Moss is lucky to even be a reserve. Others suggest putting him on waivers. I have yet to hear a valid argument as to why this disparity. And there can't be any of this nonsense about how we gave up a valuable asset in Bay for Andy so he deserves the chance to show what he can do, Moss came over in the same trade.