By Chuck Finder | 8 a.m. Thursday
Click here to submit a question.
A special, all-draft edition ...
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Q: Chuck, it appears the Pirates will need to take a pitcher in this draft. Of the three college-age pitchers being targeted, who do you think they would take: Aaron Crow, Alex White or Kyle Gibson?
Michael McLeod of Sterling, Ill.
FINDER: Let's employ deductive reasoning, my dear Watson. . . er, Michael.
Neal Huntington has made it abundantly clear that the Pirates want to draft and sign somebody who could benefit from a half-summer of post-draft seasoning in the minors. That would make Aaron Crow, the No. 8 pick who spurned the Nationals' offer last year, stale and moldy from a full year off - unless you consider the independent-league Fort Worth Cats as quality as Class A ball. This Pirates management group prefers power arms and breaking stuff, planes and angles of pitches, upside on young pitchers. ... all of which points less to North Carolina's Alex White and more to 6-foot-6 Kyle Gibson - a former Missouri teammate of Crow at Missouri.
Ergo, of those three, Gibson seems to be more Pirates material.
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Q: Who do you see the Pirates taking?
Bennett Aiken of Dormont
FINDER: If I were that prescient, don't you think I'd be picking horses, lotteries or elections for a living?
Here's a funny draft story for you: About 20 years ago, then-Post-Gazette writer Tom McMillan -- now a Penguins vice president -- threw a note in a column saying he has seen the future first-round pick of the Penguins, "and his name is Zarley Zalapski." The truth was, McMillan ran across that name in a draft preview and fell in love with the sound of it. Wouldn't you know, then-Penguins GM Eddie Johnston called up McMillan and asked him where he got that inside info because, ultimately, the Penguins did indeed draft that defenseman. Nice fellow, but he never did become a star - as many of these baseball draftees won't.
Oh, not to evade the question, but the early guess here: Gibson or maybe a high school kid with extra years to grow, such as a Shelby Miller of Brownwood, Texas.
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Q: Why doesn't MLB allow draft picks to be traded as can be done in every other major-league sport? I believe the technical answer has to do with the CBA, but what's the motivation for whatever clauses in the CBA govern that?
Seems like it would be a great year to trade down from No. 4 and try to add another lower pick.
Ed Humphrey of Norwalk, Conn.
FINDER: In the only American pro sport still without a salary cap and inherent parity/balance/whatever, the draft is the last place where the Have-Nots theoretically can keep up with the Haves. Even the most accursed or inept organization on occasion can select and afford prospects who almost by accident grow into major-league players -- of course, such a club could stupidly trade those players later as minor-leaguers (a minimum one year after drafting, per rules).
Supposedly, there is a growing consensus among MLB officials to allow draft trades, but only if a signing-bonus contract cap is enacted - and the Players Association disdains the same fiscal responsibility that exists in the other sports. Your suggestion works for the other sports, but remember one inherent difference about baseball's selection process: These players can decline to sign. High-school and college kids alike can opt to return to later draft pools. And why would there be any more guarantee that the any baseball team could either sign or produce a major-league player from a third- or fourth-round pick moreso than a first-rounder?
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Q: What does your big board look like for the Buccos? Assuming Strasburg is gone, what do you think?
Randy Gordon of Falls Church, Va.
FINDER: Assuming? If San Diego State right-hander extraordinaire Stephen Strasburg isn't going to Washington with the first pick, he won't last any longer than the second pick possessed by a smart Pittsburgh-born lad such as Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik.
Otherwise, Seattle at No. 2 may well grab North Carolina's Dustin Ackley -- a nice slugger and potential future center fielder, but he's no Pedro Alvarez. San Diego at No. 3 is either disguising its true intentions, or the Padres really are going to reach a mite and take Vanderbilt left-hander Mike Minor.
So, in effect, the Pirates for a second consecutive year may get to nab the player they have listed as the second-best overall on their big board.
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Q: Why is it that no one is talking about Mike Leake as a potential selection as the #4 overall pick?
His WHIP is an astounding 0.73 and his ERA is actually better than Strasburg's. Does his stuff not project or is he playing in a less-skilled division?
Rich Bailey of Robinson
FINDER: Arizona State isn't a lesser loop by any means. Not only are Leake's numbers impressive, but he has been consistent for three years -- where a few of the players ranked ahead of him have failed.
Right-handers such as him and Chad Jenkins of Kennesaw (Ga.) State certainly intrigue me, though Jenkins possesses one vital aspect Leake doesn't: 4 inches and 45 pounds more, at 6-4, 224. Because Leake isn't a physical specimen, because he throws slower to get more movement on his pitches, because he throws from a low three-quarters arm slot (from a small-body plane, remember), and because there isn't as much upside to him as others, I can just imagine he isn't top-five high in the Pirates' estimation.
But a Golden Spikes finalist with a 15-1 record thus far, the athletic ability to hit .300 playing elsewhere on the field AND he calls himself "Leaker" -- I'd draft this guy in a heartbeat.
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Q: Who are the five best high school arms at the top of the draft?
I'm guessing the Pirates will try to select one of those arms with the sandwich round pick, No. 49, or their second-round pick, No. 53.
John Lezo of Verona
FINDER: Way to think like a GM, John. The key here is, trying to think like Neal Huntington, Greg Smith and this new administration.
Going by the Pirates' second pick last year, recovering Fresno State pitcher Tanner Scheppers, they were willing to take a risk and go for upside. Scheppers declined their offer and come Tuesday figures to get drafted in the first round, perhaps even as early as the Top 10 that includes the Pirates.
So, using this frame of reference, could the Pirates select a player who slid from the first round for some inexplicable reason, for some rehabilitating player or young fast-riser? Your prep theory is a valid one, and here are some possibilities at that point: 6-4 RHP Matt Hobgood of Norco (Calif.) High, RHP Keyvius Sampson of Forest (Fla.) High, and -- perhaps not the arm you're looking for -- shortstops Jiovanni Mier of Bonita (Calif.) High and Nick Franklin of Lake Brantley (Fla.) High.
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Q: Chuck, if Miguel Angel Sano were a year older and a U.S. resident, where would he likely go in the upcoming draft?
If your answer is somewhere between pick Nos. 2 and 4, I don't see how the Pirates don't ante up and get it done, whether it's 3.5 million, 4.5 million, or somewhere in between. Any indication that they might be given the "last" shot at getting a deal done given Rene Gayo's relationship with the family?
Matt Beam of Califon, N.J.
DEJAN KOVACEVIC: I can take this one, Chuck, having followed the Sano saga ...
Sano would be a very high first-round pick, as per what I have been told, though the Pirates would reject that for obvious reasons: Why drive his price up? Sano might not be better than Ackley in the eyes of some, but there is no Pedro Alvarez in this draft among position players, and that includes Ackley.
Could Sano be that player?
Hard to say. As you indicate, Matt, there is an age difference, as well as a difference in level of competition to this point. But the raw evaluations of Sano have sounded to me more favorable than that of any position player in the draft, which, by the way, encompasses the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico.
Back to Chuck ...
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Q: The national baseball publications seem to have the Pirates zeroed in on college pitchers for their first pick (Gibson, Crow, or possibly Turner from Vandy). Do you think the Bucs like Aaron Crow enough to pay him the $4 million he held out for last year, and do you expect them to bring any of these pitchers in for workouts prior to the draft?
Richard Ray of Hightstown, N.J.
FINDER: First of all, I'm not sure if you mean high-schooler Jacob Turner from St. Louis and committed to North Carolina, or Vanderbilt left-hander Mike Minor. Whatever, I get the impression the Pirates believe all of the above -- except Gibson -- are asking for more dinero than the club deems them to be worth.
As for workouts, there aren't any in Pittsburgh, so I'm told.
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Q: Have you heard any opinions on the strength of the 2010 draft?
Hard to imagine happening, but could the Bucs take the approach of low-balling their 1st round choice this year, with the basic approach that if they get a bargain, great, and if not, they get a pretty high compensation pick next year in a stronger draft (and use the savings for more international signings)?
Andrew Kelley of Belmont, Mass.
FINDER: How skeptical Pirates fans have become of management, eh?
This management team continues to come under a microscope, not just with fans, but with prospects, potential draft signees, even potential major-league free-agent signees or players who could get traded here. Being cheap -- OK, "cost conscious" -- ain't going to fly. If anything, as noted above, they may use either the sandwich pick (No. 49) or early second-round selection (No. 53) on something of a reach, a college-bound player they may try to buy up or a slipping/recovering prospect on the draft way down.
Value is where you find it, though methinks they're going to put their money where there mouth is, at least for awhile: The draft and the international pools are separate but important places they need to spread some wealth.
PHOTO of Leake: Arizona State University
Posted
Jun 04 2009, 08:00 AM
by
Dejan Kovacevic