Morning links: Thanks to a reader

Dejan,

Thanks again for the response about the ML's, yesterday. Didn't mean to sound spoiled, though that is what you've done to me and the rest of us. Temporarily clicking from the synopsis page is more than fine by me --I appreciate getting the heads up as to what's in there, especially now that I realize you're cluing us in about stuff that hasn't been posted yet, at the time of your writing.

Funny, when the rest of us talk about Ric Astley, REO Wimpwagon, or chili cheese fries, you never cite THAT material in your stories. What a waste of such a wealth of material to write about...

JL- Just can't get Rick Asley out of your brain can you?We all know Dejan has that video in his I pod. Don't embarass a sportswriter, they have ways of making you sound bad in front of thousands of readers.

Maz,

"they have ways of making you sound bad in front of thousands of readers."

True, but I already own the "a$$" in "embarrass", which is what David Niven did to me in front of millions.

Re: Pirates Notebook - Yes, the Marlins are a fine example of a small market team with a miniscule payroll that can compete in MLB. Florida has had their management team, including scouts, coaches, etc., in place for a lot longer than the Bucs' current regime. I see where the PBC FO is aiming for and think that it might be on the right track towards getting there. But the Marlins were not created overnight and it will probably take the Bucs a few more years before a good solid base is in place where they can expect to compete like the Marlins. Maybe the Marlins can inspire the Pirates this weekend into trying to emulate them......

So the Marlins' payroll is only $35 mil? They're practically trailer trash, compared to us. Harumph!

Maybe we can trade 3 negative naybobs for 4 reluctant rabble rousers to be named later. ;-)

I get the feeling Hinske is not exactly a jet.I just noticed he hit into 13 double plays in a little over 400 ABs.

I await the day The 'Burgh Blues is mentioned in a DK post. Hi everyone. Hope you're all doing well. Buccos 6-6? Could our .500 prediction be correct?

Maz,

"Maybe we can trade 3 negative naybobs for..." the proverbial "future considerations."

PI,

"Maybe the Marlins can inspire the Pirates this weekend into trying to emulate them..."

Or maybe SpongeBob can inspire the Marlins to "drop on the deck and flop like a fish."

TBB,

Hey, how ya been, buddy? We're all our same wacky selves, here. Aren't you about to graduate soon?

Harpoon the Marlins mateys and JL keep your shirt and everything else on. We need the Seer to give us guidance like he did on Saturday.Bay where are ye?

These wild, one day swings in the Pirate pendulum are weird. What does it all mean? Where is Jose Lind's Pants when we need him? (Just what has happened to Jose, anyway? And as someone else wondered today, MadTurk and Ugly Ken??)

Did someone say "wacky"? As in Wacky Racers?Because here's Mutley.heee heeee(Mutley snicker)

Speaking of Mutley, Ronny Paulino returns today as a Marlin.

Anybody want to bet he's hustling,gut busting,and Buc wrestling Ronny all of a sudden?By the middle of the season he'll be back to part time "don't wake me up"Paulino.

Well Ronny isn't ours anymore. While some players have gotten away from us just to blossom into fine players (like Chris Young or Jose Guillen), most of them seem to have been cursed by their time with the Pirates. If Paulino follows the established pattern, he won't be playing in any All-Start games soon. He was a waste of talent while he was with us. But I wish him no ill will and hope he finally starts putting it together.

Meanwhile, I think I'm going to sneak some ice cream, and then call it a night.

See you tomorrow, Maz and everyone else.

Ronny Paulino   .333  5/15  1 double 1 triple 1hr

FC says "There are many examples of teams that have spent a lot of money and have not performed, and there are many or more examples of teams that have not spent a lot of money and have succeeded."

What FC DOESN'T say is the corollary, which is equally true:

"There are many examples of teams that have spent a lot of money and HAVE performed, and there are many or more examples of teams that have not spent a lot of money and HAVE NOT succeeded."

The point is that, generally speaking, you get what you pay for.

Teams in the top half of payroll tend to make and win the playoff games more than teams from the lower half of payroll.

There are exceptions, but the rule generally holds.

Talent eventually costs money. Even the Marlins know that. Just look at their frequent fire sales.

Poor Mr Nutting. He must be green with envy over the Marlins. The Marlins win, they make bucket loads of cash, and they spend even less than Bob does!

Re: Zach Duke's problems with first pitch strikes:

I bet you could look up Sandy Koufax, and find that opponents' BA jumped significantly when Sandy was behind in the count.

Bet the same applies to just about every pitcher who ever lived.

Also, a rather limited sample size - one game.

Still, this Corey Bunje Bower seems like an intelligent fellow, who knows whereof he speaks - just the sort of man this blog desperately needs.

Send out an orderly, with a straitjacket, a blackjack, and a hypodermic filled with tranquilizer, and bring him in. He must be found.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<  PROSPECT WATCH  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Today’s Topic =  STARTING PITCHING (stats thru 4/19/09)

Tom Gorzelanny – LHP – Indy (2nd Round, 2003 Draft)

0-0,   4.09 ERA ** 2 Games   11 IP  6 H  1 HR  9 K   5 BB  

Daniel McCutchen – RHP –Indy (obtained in X.Nady trade)

0-1,   2.45 ERA ** 2 Games   11 IP  7 H  2 HR  13 K   5 BB  

Brad Lincoln – RHP –Altoona (1st Round, 2006 Draft)

0-1,   3.00 ERA ** 2 Games   9 IP  8 H  1 HR  12 K   2 BB  

Dan Moskos – RHP – Altoona (1st Round, 2007 Draft)

1-0,   6.10 ERA ** 3 Games   10.1 IP  16 H  1 HR  7 K   6 BB  

Mike Crotta – RHP –Altoona (17th Round, 2006 Draft)

1-0,   1.59 ERA ** 2 Games   11.1 IP  11 H  0 HR  9 K   2 BB

Ronald Uviedo – RHP –Lynchburg (on 40 man roster)

0-1,   1.80 ERA ** 2 Games  10 IP  12 H  2 HR  5 K   2 BB  

Justin Wilson – LHP – Lynchburg (5th Round, 2008 Draft)

1-0,    6.00 ERA ** 2 Games  9 IP  7 H   2 HR  7 K   5 BB

Duke Welker – RHP –West Virginia (2nd Round, 2007 Draft)

0-1,   6.00 ERA ** 2 Games   9 IP  8 H  0 HR  1 K   4 BB

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Morning Links Part 2

Braves crown Duke, Pirates

www.tribune-democrat.com/.../local_story_109235711.html

Duke, Pirates Crushed by Braves

www.pittsburghlive.com/.../s_621363.html

Pittsburgh vs Florida

www.cbssports.com/.../MLB_20090420_FLA@PIT

COMMENTARY: Relax, the sun will probably still rise October 5

thetartan.org/.../commentary

Inbox: Will Ford replace Sanchez?

pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/.../article.jsp

Paulino's game not about revenge

www.sun-sentinel.com/.../sfl-florida-marlins-notes-s04200sbapr20,0,4022966.story

Speaking of starting pitching, I was going down Memory Lane and having a look at entries from back in the early days of the PBC Blog. During those lowest moments of the system-wide pitching disaster that rocked the Pirate Armada last year, the name Tony Watson came into focus. While everything from Double AA ball on up was taking on water and sinking fast, he was an up and coming lefty in Lynchburg, waving a lonely light of hope, far off in the caliginous night.

Curious about what has happened since to the lad, I looked him up. He's now in Altoona. Congrats on the well-earned promotion. But Tony, don't tell us your boat is now taking on water too... His ERA is 18.69. Of course, the season is still very young. And no one said there won't be adjustments as he works his way up the ladder.

Meanwhile in Indy, Jeremy Powell leads the pitching staff with a 2-0 record and a respectable ERA of 3.52. But I guess he's only being used as a middle reliever, because over 3 appearances, he only has 7.2 innings pitched. Still, as the bottom part of our starting rotation in Pittsburgh is not set in stone, I'd really like to see Powell stretched out and given his shot up here. Though maybe that's exactly what the game plan is. I hadn't realized he'd made the Indy squad. So he's already only a phone call away.

lineup guess

morgan

freddy

nate

doumit

monroe

hinske

andy

jack

olen

THE OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL PBC BLOGS AND MLB LINKS:

Bucs Dugout--Braves 11, Pirates 1: Another Blowout, But...

www.bucsdugout.com/.../braves-11-pirates-1-another

WhyGavs--Game 12 : Braves 11 Pirates 1

Pittsburgh Lumber Company--Braves pounce on Pirates

mvn.com/pittsburghlumberco

Sandlot Swashbucklers--Alvarez's Homer Not Enough; Moskos Gets Curve Win

mvn.com/.../alvarezs-homer-not-enough-moskos-gets-curve-win.html

Hyzdu Headquarters--Can't Complete the Sweep

hyzduhq.blogspot.com/.../cant-complete-sweep.html

The Burgh Blues--Kip Wells to Pitch in Nats Pen

theburghblues.mlblogs.com/.../kip_wells_to_pitch_in_nats_pen.html

The Green Weenie---Put the Brooms Away

oldbucs.blogspot.com/.../put-brooms-away.html

Is This Thing On?  --Not Sure About this One

indyindians.mlblogs.com/.../not_sure_about_this_one.html

Rumbunter-My Boy's First Pirate Game

rumbunter.com/.../my-boys-first-pirate-game-do-we-get-a-mulligan

MLB Transactions

www.cbssports.com/.../transactions

Bucco Fans--Twitter Updates Tomorrow

www.buccofans.com/.../twitter-updates-tomorrow.html

A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

As more people join this  community a number of questions arise.  Here are some clarifications.

1) Many of us who post here treat this as a discussion forum, not as a traditional blog.  Dejan's post sets the table but we respond to each other more than we respond to specifics of Dejan's post.

2) We always start the day with two threads--morning links and other stuff.  Morning links is primarily baseball discussion and Other Stuff is non baseball.

3) When some posts "OS" they are referring to the "Other Stuff" thread.

4)  Throughout the day, as stories break, Dejan will upload a new thread.  When you see the term "ants marching"  that simply means a new thread has been posted and most of the posters move to the new thread and start posting there.   Going to a new thread helps keep things flowing as we often have over 100 or even 200 posts on the original thread.

5) Instructions for uploading an avatar can be found by clicking my name, BK's name, or Mad's name.  We all have the instructions on our announcements page.

6)  Sign in w/ Nurse Cratchet for your straight jacket, meds, and room assignment

7)  As Dejan reminded us the other day, this thread is for baseball talk and the OS is for other topics

8)  Please read the 'guide to commenting' before you post" A link to the guide to commenting on the blog is located on the left near the top of the page in the section labeled  "Authors"

9) Do not post entire articles from other sources. - It is an act of illegal copyright infringement.   Just post links to the story

I surely left something out but hopefully covered the basics

next gathering

                 april 26 1:00 pm

             e town bar, butler street

                       etna

post rsvp or email  tjfran@comcast.net

                            Ohlie Ohlies in free

George, thats a curious thought i would wish to see myself.

I guess it went up but I am curious as to it reaching the significant level.

I think with Sandy it would be prudent to compare that in a year to year graph.  I think the significant finding could be the change in that from his earlier wild years to his dominating years.

"Maybe the Marlins can inspire the Pirates this weekend into trying to emulate them......"

But which part of the Pirates are in need of the inspiration?  Not realy sure I believe players can be inspired to be talented - they either are or aren't and the Marlin's are and to many of the Pirates aren't.

The Marlins have as shortstop and a second baseman who hit like major league corner outfielders the Pirates have Punch & Judy (or is it slap and tickle?)  The Marlins have a number two hitter who happens to have the most important skill a top of the order hitter needs - not making outs!  The pirates number 2 hitter is almost always  Punch or Judy who react to walks like a teenage girl reacts to spider and create outs with their bunting "skills."   The Marlins have corner outfielders who hit like, well corner outfielders and the Pirates have another arachnophobic in left with no power who impersonates a leadoff hitter circa 1911 and a work in progress.  The Marlins have a manager who builds his lineups around the talents of his hitters and the Pirates have who who builds his based on some wisdom he picked up off the back a baseball card he read saw from 1958.  The result being the Marlins are 6 in the majors in runs scored while the Pirates are 22nd

But hey at least the Pirates have a short stop who can make a heck of a throw from his knees - or not.

If anyone on the Pirates needs to be inspired by the Marlins it's John Russell first and for most and the front office, which judging from the minor leagues numbers thus far have been.

It is actually a well documented stat that batters hit better when they are ahead in the count.  here is an article on it.

www.hardballtimes.com/.../the-importance-of-strike-one-part-one

Good morning, everyone.  Although it is not a good morning here - rain and wind - and I'm going to the game tonight.  UGH!  They say it might clear up.  It has alot of clearing up to do.

Interesting to learn the info about Zach's first strike - or lack of - in yesterday's game.  Actually, were those stats from yesterday or were they career stats?  I don't remember it the article said.  Anyway, in the first inning the Braves scored those 3 runs on a bunch of unimpressive hits, except for maybe one that was hit hard.  If he could just have held on - and thrown strikes - he might have made it through.  Of course, the Pirates bats never came though, so I guess the game was a loss already.

Here's an interesting tidbit - the Marlins and Pirates are fourth and fifth respectively in the majors fin team ERA.  

According to baseball CW that pitching and defense wins games so shouldn't these two teams have records more similar to each other than they do?  

I guess maybe in this modern game maybe you do have to score some runs to win and I wonder how long it's to take Russell to figure that out and make the appropriate changes to his roster and lineups.

"Duke's previous game was a gem, the 119-pitch shutout in the Pirates' home opener, but he needed 83 pitches -- 56 strikes -- to get through these six innings."

He was on pace to throw about 124 pitches through nine innings. That's not too much more than the 119 he got against the Astros.

UDN

Marlins and Dodgers are on winning streaks right now--other than them the Pirates are close to everyone else in the NL--would be tied for 2nd in the East, are 1,5 back in central, would be 3rd in West.  Have a better record right now than the Phils.  Pirates run differential is 6th in the league--Dodgers at 10-3 lead the NL at + 42, Marlins at + 32, then the Cards at +21, Cubs at +10, Padres at +9, an Pirates at +8.  Only other team in NL on the plus side are the Mets at +6

UDN

Alkso, if the Pirates had played 6 games against the Nats, as the Marlins have done, they might be something like 10 and 2.

"if the Pirates had played 6 games against the Nats"

JAL, you just beat me to it.  Goodness, it's been 12 games.  Are the Marlins and the Pirates as good as their respective records?  Are the Angels as bad as theirs?  Who knows.

Good morning all.  Back from a long and somewhat aggravating stretch of travel.  The only thing i have to show for it is a head cold.

JAL - the reverse of the getting-ahead stat is also relevant to batters.  Those batters that get in 0-2 or 1-2 holes have a terrible OBP.  I can't link any stats but it raises a question:

- In earlier eras of baseball, batters in a hole would usually shorten their swings and often choke up.  Almost never see that now.  I sometimes tire of the "chicks (and big contracts) dig the long ball" culture we live in.  Would love to see more sacrifice at the plate.  Unlike a pitcher (who sometimes just loses the strike zone, sometimes nothing you can do), batters have the opportunity to adjust...but it's seldom done anymore.

Ok, so the head cold has turned be into a crotchety old man complaining about the kids who play ball these days.

From the previous thread...

Thanks Maz for reminding us that it's still early yet.

The Braves' starter made most of our hitters look awful yesterday, I thought.  I saw Adam toss his helmet in frustration and even more rare, I saw Nate do it as well, after a strikeout.  

Ah well...it's done and over. Time to focus on today's game...if the wether cooperates.  As Capn mentioned, it's a bit rainy here today.

And Duke wasn't getting ahead at all.  It was very frustrating to watch, probably moreso for him.  

Drew

Good to see you back and sorry about the cold.

Left hander on the mound tonight.  If Russell had any sense he'd use the following lineup:

N. MClouth CF  - should be here until McCutchen arrives

F. Shanchez 2B - Most patient against LHP, drops to bottom -v RHP

R. Doumit C - Drops  to 5 -v RHP

LaRoache 1B - Move up to third -v RHP

D. Young LF - Sits -v RHP replaced by Hinske when not spelling 3B

Craig Monroe RF - Sits -v RHP replaced by Moss

LaRoache 3B - Sits Occasionally against A+ RHP Hinske

Wilson SS - prelaced -v RHP by Vazquez who hits second

Good Morning UncleDirtNap, JJ, Capn, 21sthebest, JAL (already scared up the breakfast!), Alexandre, Stealer6 and ...

Drew! Sorry about your head cold ... just getting over one myself. Nothing worse than a REAL GUY with a head cold ... pitiful! My wife had the same thing I had a few days later ... a real champ!

Just got called in to work dayside today ... Will be back in time to see all the game, though, God willing ...

My prediction: We win, of course, bringing some reality back to the Marlins ... Monroe is back facing the lefty Miller, going yard once again, with a double ... and we see Andy LaRoche's first home run (if he gets to play).

21s

Agree--we do not know who is good and who is not yet--except it is pretty clear the Nats are bad. They basically just redid their pen --their pitching has awful.

"Are the Marlins and the Pirates as good as their respective records?"

Certainly the Marlins aren't as good as 11-1 because nobody is.  The comments about the lineups and that talent of the players on the offensive side is still what it is.  Any lineup with Uggla, Ramirez and Hermida hitting in the middle is going to score a lot of runs, the platoon at first with Goad and Jorge Cantu is going to be very productive and the very type of roster/lineup management we haven't seen from Russell . Baker so far looks like the perfect combination of patience and gap power for a number two hitter.   Looking at his roster and lineups it's pretty clear Fredi Gonzalez knows his s**t and his offense is going to be successful even if Maybin, Bonifacio and to a lesser extent Ross don't pan out.  

The Marlin's roster has a very solid core of hitters, a few young guys trying to make their mark and a few journeymen because of choices Gonzalez made for his roster and he looks to know how to get the most out them unlike Russell thus far.

Until the steroid era, and especially before they lowered the pitchers mound small-ball vs big inning was a pretty even game.  The '71 series is a classic example of two teams with the two styles.  The lumber company was a contact hitting, line drive, speed driven team.  Clemente embodied the philosophy that you can't hit if you don't swing.  The Orioles were all about power -- at least for the era.  Went seven games and could have gone eitherr way, but it went the right way in the end.

Big inning ball began to prevail when all of a sudden anybody could hit 40 homers in a year.  That era ended suddenly with Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, MacGwire, Canseco, A-roid, and dozens and dozens of others in disgrace or under suspicion.  It appears that quite a few statheads do not actually go to the games and would not know how to evaluate talent except by numbers in a book.

I am not a professional statistician, but I've taken enough courses (many years ago) and worked for ACT, the college testing people for several years.  Based on millions of results the ACT test could predict your college grades fairly accurately.  Fairly accurately meant that if it predicted you'd get a B -- there was about a 95% chance that you'd get an A or a B or a C, and a 5% chance you wouldn't.  That was a carefully designed test.  They field tested the questions.  Every ACT (and SAT) test has a couple of questions in every section that are being tested to see how the answers they draw match the results of the established questions.  

Applying statistical methods to the game of baseball seems like an intuitive idea.  But really you have to know the difference between the statements "OPS correlates with winning" and "OPS causes winning."  Correlates can be loosely translated into every day speech as "sort of matches."  Another idea that has no basis in reality is that statistics measure talent.  I believe it was put forth in this forum this morning.  Not true at all.  A talented hitter can strike out, and an untalented hitter can produce a seeing eye single.  Talent can be masked by injury, attitude, or even opportunity.  

Having said all that, I will also add that major league teams all have statistics departments and do a much better job of collecting real data as it pertains to the game than guys who amplify box scores.  

Not that stats have no value at all, but you have to know what they really measure and the conditions under which they were obtained.

End of rant.

                               JAL, great link about first pitch strikes, i would wonder how our guys are with first pitch strikes but i already know. Morgan, Freddy and Jack never met a first strike they didn't like have been our most productive average guys but like UDN suggests they are punch &judy guys and obviously bring little much needed "POP" to the lineup.

                              Now for guys  with power or expected power Nate, both Laroche boys and Moss all seem to take first pitch strikes and based on early results the group is hitting about .250  with generally unimpressive

power numbers as a group.

                              The point is simple swing at strikes, if the majority of big league pitchers throw strikes and they do why would you encourage

hitters to look at strike 1 or strike 3 for that matter.

                            I realize we are trying to preach to our hitters be selective but also preach being aggressive swinging at strikes.

macs -- Freddy is healthy and has a new approach at the plate.  He is currently leading the team in slugging average.

JAL - Bay: thanks...feeling better today.

JH - wow...Freddy leading in slugging?!  does that say something about him, or his teammates? Recognizing we've only been playing for 2 weeks and this will change.

i find it alittle funny that people are saying they wish the Pirates were run more like the Marlins.  While we trade decent older players who already making alot of money, the Marlins trade amazing, young talented players BEFORE they start making money.

The way everyone complains on here bout salary dumps and the prospect return for ok players, I can't imagine what I would read if we did business like the Marlins.

           J dont misunderstand me i am a Freddy guy i think he brings a lot to our lineup its the fact the guys we are expecting to drive him home are way too selective.

Everyone-- I reposted a psuedo-play-by-play yesterday's game for the Bluerocks and Hillcats.

Very entertaining and Sir L was nice enough to bring pitch and boom.  I'll comment more and post pictures later on.  

A-ron if it created two world series in the past 12 years we would not be too upset

Drew -- << Freddy>> Why not?  It says 7 doubles, 2 triples and a homer.   I think it says something good about him.  Monroe and Duke are slugging a little higher, but not many AB's.  

As for his teammates, the Bucs are 9th in NL and 8th in BA (10th in OBP), so as a team about what we were hoping, middle of the pack.

Despite my optimism, I said at the beginning of the season that what I'm looking for this year is a representative major league team -- solid if not outstanding through the line up, respectable if not dominating pitching.  That result would show the front office is moving forward at the major league level as well as building up the rest of the organization.

I think we're going to be ragged, but surprising this year.

Oh, and hope that head cold goes away.  Rest, chicken soup, and tylenol PM if you can take a couple days off.

Aron- I think the way the Marlins are run is borderline criminal.  One thing they do have is exceptional talent evaluation.  

"Recognizing we've only been playing for 2 weeks and this will change."

Exactly, it says nothing about him or the team only about where we are in the season and on top of that it's not even an accurate statement.

Craig Monroe is leading the team in slugging (.750) Zach Duke is second (.667) and Sanchez is third (.615)  and a week from now none of these numbers will have any relevance.

macs

Glad you liked the link

Macs -- yeah, I was picking on the side point.  Nate has been getting on base a lot, leads the team in OBP, and 3 homers in 12 games is on pace for 40 a year, Adam is off to a better start than we expected, and except for yesterday Doumit is starting show some life in his bat, too.  I agree, swing at strikes.  It seems though that the production is not coming all at once.  We're 8th, 9th, and 10th in avg, slg, and obp as I mentioned in an earlier post, but 11th in runs.  Interestingly, last year early we were about the same, maybe a place or two higher in avg, but lower in obp and slg, and still managed to be 3rd - 5th in runs through the first half of the season.  Our hitting was more timely.

Stan Belinda,

No doubt bout their talent evaluation!!  They dont seem to miss.

We tried to get some of that mojo before didnt we?  Didn't Littlefield come from the Marlins FO?

               JH, great rant

               UDN, GREAT LINEUP with you on McCLOUTH 100%

            Though Morgan is a guilty pleasure of mine he never met a pitch he didnt like and we need POP in this lineup

"Not that stats have no value at all, but you have to know what they really measure and the conditions under which they were obtained.

End of rant."

I would strongly recommend again you read up on Markov chains and how they pertain to baseball lineup to understand how wrong you are about this.

It's not about collecting data or amplifying box scores it's about understanding what will result under any conditions if certain players are plugged into lineups certain ways.

If the first player to come to bat in a game reaches base 40% of the time and the second player comes to bat 38% the third player of the game WILL come to bat minimum number of times with at least one runner on base and one out and a minimum number of times with two on and nobody out and a minimum number of opportunities to drive in runs in the first inning.  If the third batter gets on base 37% and gets to second base or further 50% of every time he gets a hit there are a minimum number of times the fourth hitter will come to the plate with multiple men in scoring position and a minimum number of runs that can be scored.

You simply can not arrange the numbers in any way to create another outcome.  

Thanks JH.  Chicken soup sounds great.  i usually work from home (when not traveling) so unless i'm unconscious, i unfortunately dont take time off.

Help!

If anyone has suggestions on following, please send me a note on the OS thread.

I'm looking for a good name for an employee newsletter...any ideas?

Remember, OS thread so we don't tie this thread up with non baseball stuff.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

@UDN

I agree with the lineup that you put together for today, and I also agree with the fact that it would better if the middle infielders had a little more pop, but until that pop comes up through the organization, you play with the cards you are dealt. The Pirates could trade Maholm, Duke or Snell away and probably get one or two above average players for the middle infield  if they wanted to, that is what the price woud be to improve without the draft, again without me using any stats I believe I would be on the safe side to say that pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball, so trading any or all those three probably would be a bad idea.

I dissagree with your asumption that the minor leagues do not have talent, your looking at numbers and averages and wins and losses and I am looking at the rating of the players they have. I you draft players that are rated as average to below average, your not going to get much more than average out of them when they come to the big team, when you draft average to above average talent, the above average talent will come to the surface sooner or later.

Your building your system the right way. Pitching depth is a problem in the system, that is ONE of the reasons for the poor won lost records at this point.  8 out of the 10 in this years draft are projected to be pitchers.

I read up on Markhov chains.  They are mathematical probability models, based on limited assumptions.  I posted what I found the other night.  

You don't seem to get the idea of probability.

"Though Morgan is a guilty pleasure of mine he never met a pitch he didnt like and we need POP in this lineup"

IF the Pirates and Russell are going to insist on playing Morgan until the day he hits himself down to his expected level then do it in a way to minimize the damage to the offense: Never start him against LHP - he's .182/.250/.182 with a .482 OPS against them this year and put him at the bottom of the order so his lack of walks an discipline won't the two and three hitters coming to bat in the first inning with nobody on base.

With all the lineup scenario talk, I am reminded of my favorite run-scoring scenario:

Leadoff man walks. He then steals second.

The number two hitter then sacrifices him to third.

The number three hitter then sacrifices him in.

Boom!!! Without a single hit the score is 1-0 and the pitcher is annoyed.

What are some of your favorites?

WhyStan,

"I think the way the Marlins are run is borderline criminal."

That's funny, I think the same thing about the way Bob Nutting has insisted the Pirates be run ever since his family gained controlling interest and he became Chairman back in 2003.

IMO there are a couple of differences between the Pirates and Marlins:

1) Talent evaluation - you nailed it. Loria may run the Marlins on a shoe string budget, but at least his front office has done a decent job of player evaluation. We've had the worst of both worlds here, a shoestring budget and poor talent evaluation. - A sure fire combination for last place finishes. - 3 in the last 4 years.

2) Ballpark - MLB successfully extorted a publically funded ballpark from this region in exchange for promises of $50M payrolls and competitive ball clubs over 10 years ago. MLB said that McClatchy and his ownership group required the additional cash flow derived from modern luxury suites to survice. Pittsburgh answered with public funding and supporting attendance. The PBC however failed to uphold it's end of the informal agreement. Payrolls were slashed just 2 years into the ball park and still reside at levels there were below league average 10 years ago. To this day, the Nutting Pirates remain the lowest team payroll for a team with a new publically funded ballpark.

Until very recently, the Marlins at least had the excuse of an old ballpark lacking modern luxury suites and relatively low attendance for their shoestring budgets.

I don't agree with, but at least understand the Marlins shoestring budget.

On the other hand, this region has given the Pirates and MLB everything they asked for and in return we've been given garbage baseball and team rosters in return.

IMO Bob Nutting is far more the criminal, moral, not legal, than Jeff Loria.

"but until that pop comes up through the organization, you play with the cards you are dealt."

Yes you do, but you can still play the cards different ways and while maybe not change the outcome significantly in the long run (like turn a losing team into a play off contender) you can sometimes change it enough for a better result (like maybe turn a 75 win team into 81 win team)

Right now Russell seems to not have any sense of his teams strengths or weakness and playing his cards to maximum disadvantage.  

OK, no more rants from me this week.

This week is leading up to one of the best days in the entire year coming up on Saturday.....

First day of spring turkey season and the NFL draft both on the same day!

Life doesn't get any better. By law, you can only hunt spring turkey until noon, which gives you plenty of time to get back home in time to sit down with a bunch of snacks and watch the great job ESPN does covering the NFL draft.

It's sort of like Christmas and your birthday on the same day.

I'm going to be jolly all week, nothing, not even Bob Nutting or Frank Coonelly are going to put me in a bad mood.

I cannot wait to see what draft picks Mr. Colbert and Mr. Tomlin will choose for our World Champion, Six-time Super Bowl Champ Pittsburgh Steelers.

;-)

UDN makes it sound like the players are robots.  lol   like there isnt any kind of change in hitting for left handed pitchers or right handed pitchers, or how a certain batter does against a certain pitcher.  How comfortable this particular batter is hitting in this spot.  I mean, wouldnt all teams have darn near identical numbers if they followed your chain theory??  

Freddy is a good 2 hitter anytime on most any team.  He puts the ball in play nearly everytime. moves the runner up, into scoring position, for the guys who are actually supposed to knock in runs.

nate is a great lead off tho, i will give you that.

                  Dirt, im with ya on Morgan, but i would use the "Rudy" rant with guys like the Laroches, if those guy's had half his heart you get the rest.

                    You cant measure Heart and determination in OPS.

                    Adam Laroche should be our most productive power hitter by a long distance but i believe his numbers will come up short again because it never seems like he's giving it his all. I am aparrently in the minority here since all the " Adam KOOL AID" was consumed before i could have a sip

Hello again everyone!  I'm back from PGH after being at the game on Saturday and Sunday.  Sorry I missed the gathering at the statue - got caught up on the Parkway West closing traffic from airport area and made it into the game shortly before gametime.  Great game Saturday - not so good on Sunday, but enjoyed my visit.  

A couple of points and opinions...

I feel that JR really wanted Morgan to succeed and be an every day leadoff guy with his speed.  With his start, it made it impossible for him to sit Morgan.  I've said it earlier, when and if he comes back to normal, it may be time to look at other options with Monroe and Hinske getting more playing time.  

Freddy is what he is... should hit for high average, but not many walks.  It seems as though he is driving the ball more this year - gap to gap - than he did the previous two years.  He's looking mroe like the guy that won the batting title of '06.  I believe he led the NL in doubles that year - correct me if I'm wrong.  Hopefully he can keep it up, but I'd still prefer a guy that has more patience in the #2 hole, but we need to play with the guys we have.

We are spending a lot of time on the lineup, but the reality is we need to be a top tier pitching team this season for us to have a chance at breaking 'The Streak' of losing seasons.  It's time our pitching prospects of a few years ago - Maholm, Duke, Snell, and eventually Gorzo - step up.  Some have, while others, the jury is still out.  If we need to dip into our bullpen in the 5th inning constantly, we're going to be in trouble.

UDN -- in fairness, I should say I do get the idea of not giving up outs willingly.  But for every rule there is an exception.  When a sac bunt works, it's a thing of beauty.  Look at Nyjer leading off with a double the other night, going to third on a sac -- then scoring on a passed ball.  A completely manufactured run.  Much better than if Freddy had swung away, hit a liner and got him doubled off second.  Much worse than if Freddy had doubled.  

You seem to treat statistics though as if they were an absolute predictive science -- when in reality they are not.  What stats might tell you is that in all circumstances there is a better probability of one strategy working -- but they cannot tell you what experience tells you, that this guy against that pitcher while he's hot or cold, is much more likely to produce a result that goes against the norm than not.  

And we will always disagree about that.

UDN

I agree with you about Russell, I think he could manage the 27 Yankees, but a team like this requires a lot of managing.

As far as Morgan is concerned, batting against left handers, you have the same problem with Adam LaRoach as far as where to put him in the order?  I would platoon Monroe and Morgan, Russell and I dissagree on this, he isn't into platooning.

What I would do is probably play Doumit at first base

and take Adam LaRoach out against certain left handers, because it would be like a day off for Doumit and you would have more right handed pop in the lineup. I would also call up Diaz to backup Doumit, we could use the pop.

"You don't seem to get the idea of probability."

I absolute do understand the idea of probability starting with the part that probability is not the same as chance, and rates of probability apply to every aspect of our lives and can be increase or decreased by altering the variables in the model.

We drive our cars across bridges because the probability that enough of the structures' components would fail at once and send us to our death is pretty low.  Start fiddling with the quality of the materials, mix in extreme weather conditions, shake the ground it's built on suddenly and violently - probabilities change.

We work and sometimes live in buildings hundreds of feet high and built to within the closest margins of maximum stress the materials and designs can handle and do it safely.  Crash an airliner into one and reduce the load bearing strength of the material by a mere 2% with burning jet fuel  and the probability the structure can remain stable drops dramatically.

Probable outcomes change with changes to the variables.  In baseball the variables are in the stats and where they are placed in the lineup - change them and you changes the outcome in very certain and predictable ways.

"But for every rule there is an exception.  When a sac bunt works, it's a thing of beauty.  Look at Nyjer leading off with a double the other night, going to third on a sac -- then scoring on a passed ball"

But that situation is precisely an example of why you don't do it then.  Take the same sequences of events and pull out the SAC bunt and replace it with a walk or hit and the Pirates score more than two runs in that situation and maybe go on to win the game.

In any situation not making an out created another opportunity for a run to be scored - giving it up willingly takes it away.

Leadoff,

That is a tempting thought....to move Doumit to 1B when Adam gets dumped, - If Pearce doesn't earn a promotion with strong AAA play. Garrett Jones would also be an option at 1B.

It would get Doumit's bat in the lineup more consistently without having to give him a game off per week. But then alll we have is two unproven rookies to share the catching duties and I think Doumit's value as a player is maximized as a catcher vs. first base.

Besides, we have 3 3B prospects and if even two of them make it, one will have to move, presumably Alvarez to 1B.

Tempting thought, but I vote to keep Doumit behind the plate.

@JH

You seem to treat statistics though as if they were an absolute predictive science -- when in reality they are not.  What stats might tell you is that in all circumstances there is a better probability of one strategy working -- but they cannot tell you what experience tells you, that this guy against that pitcher while he's hot or cold, is much more likely to produce a result that goes against the norm than not.  

I agree with you on this topic, I know I am old school.

Reminds of the days when we were kids, remember those days when on the playground we would get 2 guys, toss the bat in the air and whoever got their hand at the top of the bat got the first pick, we were kids, but we knew who the best players were and where to put them in the lineup. Nothing has changed, it is still a kids game.

With all this stat talk, I feel like I'm back in my QBA class in college!  UGH... my... head... is... spinning...

I am bored out of my mind so I am going to have some fun with UDN's stats

Chances Both 1 And 2 hitters reach base: .152

Chances 1 does:                                     .476

Chances neither does:                             .372

Now I am going to skip a step and show how many largest possible number of runs can be scored after the the fourth batter in the 1st inning.

These statistics come before the fourth batter is going to hit and his stats do not matter because I am find the largest possible number of runs.  Which means that the 4th batter would have to hit a homerun.

0 runs:The first three batters are retired and the 4th batter does not come up: .23436

1 run: Impossible because in order for the 4th hitter to bat in the first someone must be on base and that of course would mean the max number of runs after his at bat would be a 2.

2 runs:One of the first three reach base: .43752

3 runs: Two of the runners reach base: .27188

4 runs: All three runners reach base: .05624

Other Probabilities

Chances that first 2 reach and 3rd hits for extra bases: .02812

Chances that 1 of 2 reach and 3rd hits for extra bases: .08806

This was a huge waste of time but it past some time and I had some fun.

Uncle Dirt:

What's the probability of you sending a post after Saturday's 10-0 win?  A beautiful game, both wth the bats and on the mound.  I believe that was at 0%

What was the probablility of you posting a comment after we got bombed Sunday 11-1?  Seems to me 100%.  

The human element of the posting comes into play there - you enjoy to rant at the times your arguement fits.  Now, that's not saying that all of your comments are wrong - I actually agree with some - not all - of your postings.  

@Hostage

It would get Doumit's bat in the lineup more consistently without having to give him a game off per week. But then alll we have is two unproven rookies to share the catching duties and I think Doumit's value as a player is maximized as a catcher vs. first base.

What I am saying is that Adam LaRoach needs to be spelled against left handed pitching once in a while and we don't have anyone other than Doumit, if we bring up Diaz we get a fairly good bat from him and send Jarimillo down.

We have to play the backup catcher once in a while. Jones is another left hander, so he won't solve the problem. The organization goes down to AA and Romak before we get to another right hand hitter for 1st base.

Do we want to bring Pierce up here to sit on the bench and play once in a while?

The fact is that baseball is in large part a game of chance.  If you go through the MLB schedule and flip pennies to determine wins and losses, the final standings you get won't look much different than they do at the end of a real season, except of course the teams will be different.  There are just too many years where you would have a different winner if you played a 96 game season, a 144 game season or a 162 game season.  

On the sac example you say "not making an out created another opportunity for a run to be scored."  This is refutable by example:  Sanchez could, as I said, have lined into a double play.  There is also a possibility of a fielder's choice, hitting the runner with the baseball, a successful pick-off attempt and so forth.  It is simply not an exact science.  It is a probability model.

"As far as Morgan is concerned, batting against left handers, you have the same problem with Adam LaRoach as far as where to put him in the order?"

Expect that Adam LaRoach has never shown a great deal of a platoon split.  Over the lst three years he's hits .263/.323/.467 .790 OPS against LHP  .280/.355/.517/ .872 OPS  - it's there but not significant so sure sit him against better lefties on occasion but he's not killing you most of the time hitting against LHP and I'm not sure any of the right handed options would do better.

               Leadoff, if i was convinced Diazes would hit as consistently i would suggest we replace Laroche with Doumit @ 1b 4 let's say the next 150 games.

Leadoff,

I guess because the previous regime jerked Doumit around, from catcher, to rightfield, to firstbase, and then beaotched about his lack of development behind the plate, I am reluctant to mess with Doumit's receiving and game calling skills. He's made a lot of progress and I'd hate to see it derailed.

Hinske and Moss both have some experience playing first, but both bat lefthanded so other than giving LaRoche a rest, there is no tactical advantage.

Well it goes back to Neal not doing his job this winter and getting that righthanded bat he claimed he was after.

Head... still... spinning... please... stop...

The probablilites, percentages, Markov Chain, more probabilities, and more percentages are killing my mood this morning.  

Here's hoping that the Bucs can bring the Fish back down to reality.  The 'probability' of them going 12-1 is extremely low - sorry... just had to throw that out.

Uncle Dirt Nap:  It would seem, by your logic, that shutouts should never happen.  After all, there is a minimum number of runs to be scored, apparently.

Also, while John Russell may not know as much about statistics as you do, I'm pretty sure he knows more than you give him credit for.  In fact, unless you're writing what you write from the dugout of an MLB club, I'm willing to bet he knows more about the game than you do.  While you're entitled to your opinion, it doesn't make sense to call a guy stupid (in so many words) just becasue he doesn't look at the game the same way you do.

Well, off I go to probably never comment again.  I'm not getting an avatar either.  So there.

Hey everyone, looking for some input from the crowd.  I really like the Pirates' new jerseys and was thinking to buy one for the first time in a few years.  My criteria for whose name and number to get are a) they are good and should continue to be for the next few years, b) are likely to be Pirates for 3+ seasons, including this one, and c) not a pitcher (I want to more than likely be watching the player on my jersey when I go to games.  I was thinking Doumit, smart choice?

Also, I'm debating between the road jersey or the black alternate home jersey.  White makes me nervous because I'll eventually spill beer or nacho cheese on it.  I like grey because it says Pittsburgh on it.  The black one is sharp, but I'm afraid it will be hot in the summer.  I only read the comments occasionally, is there a consensus here on favorite jersey version?

I think we're better off with Monroe or Hinske at 1B when Adam needs a breather.  Doumit is a power hitting catcher, but not really quite the power guy at 1B.  Jaramillo's defense is what got him the job.  Diaz has better offense than Jaramillo, but I'm not sure it would be anywhere near what Doumit brings.  

Is there any probability that Brandon Moss will get an RBI one of these days?

I mean, that would be nice.

Here's hoping that the Bucs can bring the Fish back down to reality.  The 'probability' of them going 12-1 is extremely low - sorry... just had to throw that out

Actually not to be a smart a** but the probability of them winning this game is the same as if they were 9-3 because the events have already occurred and they do not mean anything to the the events of the future.  The probability at the beginning the season of them being 12-1 was low however now that they are 11-1 they are actually pretty high.

JHadar,

Monroe has never played a single game at 1B in the major leagues.

I'm not a fan of teaching guys new positions at the big league level during the actual season, but I'd also say that at his age, it might not be a bad idea to learn a new position to improve his versatility. Plus, Perry Hill is supposed to be the be all end all of infield coaches, maybe they should put him to the test?

Speaking of playing the Fish.....

I really think this should be blasted on the Jumbotron these next three nights....

www.youtube.com/watch

Hoatage

Brandon ordered some RBI but they got lost somewhere.  UPI is trying to track them :)

Good day inmates.

I find it interesting that if you step away from the forest, you can ask someone else how the trees look.

In other words, I was searching links to post on a Web site and found a link to the summary of Saturday's Pirate game. It started off saying Doumit was catching "the best starting pitching staff in baseball."

Not the NL east, not even the NL. Baseball. Major League  Baseball.

On Saturday, that was a fact.Team ERA best in starting rotations in all of baseball.

Now a day can change a lot, and I'm sure it did since Duke frustratingly (for him) added a number other than zero to the left of the decimal point.

But here's my point: Reading this blog on Friday, anyone would think we were destined for the bottom of the heap.

It's early, the pitching is respectable, and except for the Marlins, most teams are winning some, losing some.

Ben - As long as it has sleeves!  (I'd go grey)

Based on Sunday, we're over .500 with sleeves, winless without!

Doumit's done a great job thus far behind the dish and had earned the job.  I'd like to see him stay there.  

Q...LOL...I feel you pain!  All those numbers and theories...UGH!  Extra meds for those of us non-stat folks!  :-)

Steve...Avi's aren't required, but you're always welcome!  

Ben...I've been pondering that same question.  The new jerseys are pretty sweet looking.  I really like the alternates...if you go to primarily night games, the black doesn't factor in as much.  *grin*

As much as we've talked about the sleeves...umm...we got trounced yesterday wearing the pin-striped VESTS.  Coincidence?  *Just trying to toss a little levity in there folks.  ;-) *

I was at both games this weekend - quite a contrast!  Did they switch uniforms between games or something?

I agree with those who posted the sentiment that the starting pitcher's performance makes the difference.  Unfortunately there is such great inconsistency....  Duke's home opening performance was not matched Sunday, always getting behind early and having control problems in very bad times (ie walking their pitcher).  Ian Snell's first outing was bad but his last two have been good and getting better.

Just have to mention - interesting that Saturday's game Nyjmo with 0-4 and had a walk.  Bucs won 10-0.  Maybe the earlier stated opinions that Nyjmo's walking being better for the Bucs than when he hits to get on base holds water based on those results LOL.  Just kidding.....

Has anyone noticed the Bucs play much better in nice weather and lose in the rain?

One thing I'm pretty certain of....

The probability of winning improves greatly if you can either score more runs than the opponent, or give up fewer runs than the opponent.

Just a little something I've noticed in watching baseball over the years.

NH - Awesome observation.  But the sleeves help too.  :)

NH -- OF to 1B is a classic transition. you get a bigger mitt and you don't have to run as far.  

NH -- And amazingly the probability of scoring more runs than the opponent is exactly the same as giving up fewer runs than the opponent.  I think you're on to something with this one.

What fun bunch of posts.  Everything from rants to hit and runs posts here today.  Who could ask for anything more.  As one who uses stats I realize that stats have their limits.  If stats were everything we never have to play the game.  

As for UDN and his repeating about the sacrifice--runner on 2nd, no outs--sacrifice to 3rd, score on WP, PB, Hit, sac.  Hit away--possibilities are Hit with run scoring, K, popup, shallow fly, grounder that does not advance the runner,m line drive caught and causing a DP.  No strategy is right and often the strategy is based on other circumstances--facing Santana--play for the run because you aren't going to get many.  Have your ace going--play for the run because you aren't going to give up many.   Have yiour #5 going--play for the hit because you are going to need several runs.  so on and so on.

Hostage

What a shocking stat--score more than other team and win--who would have guessed

About Doumit

No one said he should move from the catcher position, all that was said is that he could take a rest now and then by playing first base because we don't have a right handed replacement for Adam LaRoach to give him a rest, if we had one, we would not be talking about Doumit.

I don't know if this new guy Young, can play first, does anyone know?

It is hard to manage without flexiblity in the lineup.

Hostage...Just so you know...I'm totally ignoring your YT link.  If it's what I think it is...I REALLY don't need that song running through my head today.  :-)

On this Doumit thing, it seems the suggestion is that he be used to spell LaRoche on the days he would normally be spelled himself from his catching duties.  So LaRoche ends up being the one with an actual day off from a less strenuous position.  How does this do anything for Doumit in terms of resting him for the rigors of catching?  It is an actual increase in load for him.  Or does Doumit get extra rest by getting his usual day off as well as one day where he is playing 1b instead of catcher?

Also Re: Doumit.  Thanks for the jersey feedback, think he's a solid choice for the jersey number?  I want to be able to sport it for a few seasons.

Even if Young could play first, he's 5'8" and shouldn't!  Adam is 6'3", Hinske is 6'1", and Vasquez is 5'11" - which is pushing it.  Throw in the wingspan, particularly of Adam, and you're talking about 7 inches in height, probably closer to a foot in reach.  It may sound like an odd way of comparing 1Bs, but that 12 inches can make a ton of diffence in how your infield fields.  Anything Adam reaches for, if someone as smal as Young plays 1B, becomes either a throwing error or being pulled off the bag.

Hostage -- the possible exception would be if while leading the ump decides you have called the GM sleazy and forfiets the game -- thus all the runs you score don't count and the other team gets 9 runs they didn't score.

@Diehard

We are talking about a game now and then, not a full time replacement for LaRoach.

Okay I will pose the question, what right handed bat do we have that we can use to spell Adam LaRoach, other than Doumit that has played first base? Remember the original thought here is to get Russell more flexibility against left hand pitchers.

diehard - I agree with you on Adam's "wingspan" being a factor. From time to time, his long reach is a saving grace. Last year when Jack went down to the DL at the opening of the season, I noticed how much more Adam needed his reach than usual.

I've seen a LOT of changes in Adam compared to what I'd seen in the past. Personal and professional. I watched him interract with a young man I was hanging out beside at Pirate City and was very impressed by his demeanor. I saw him stop near the dugout to sign stuff for kids Saturday and hadn't seen that of him that much (Freddy and Jack, always). And he's hitting. I'm dusting off my LaRoache 25 red t-shirt. Srsly.

On Doumit - I've heard Neal say half a dozen times that Doumit doesn't have a good enough avg. for a corner outfielder let alone 1B. Of course at the time Ryan was hitting .331 and I didn't see a lot of outfielders or 1Bmen carry that kind of number, but hey, what do I know?

I'm back after serving my two-day suspension for misconduct on the NyjMo Bus.  Apparently, hanging towels from the overhead vents inside a moving bus is ALSO a safety violation, in addition to not thrilling those sleeping next to where said towels are hung. Sorry Cave.

Ben

I'd go grey jersey.  Doumit is a good choice, though I think Nate is a better one.  Already bona fide with the AS game and GG award last year.  I worry about jerking Doumit around (much like some people are discussing right now) and the impending arrival of..................oh wait, there are no catchers coming.

Even though he hasn't posted here today, Daryle

Congrats on the avatar, buddy!

UDN

Why do you still not understand that the decision is not to either sacrifice bunt the man from 2nd to 3rd or get a hit?  As I said during your original argument (and many have echoed here today) there are other things in baseball that can happen besides a hit.  Most of them do substantially less good than a sac bunt.  A sac bunt has an EXTREMELY high success rate when it is being executed by a good bunter (like JW in the example instance).  No one disagrees that you score more runs from multiple hits than from one hit and a sacrifice.  But that's sort of like saying you shouldn't teach hitters to go the other way because squaring up and pulling the ball results in homeruns, and homeruns score more than slap singles the other way. While true, it doesn't exactly capture the full gamut of possibilities.

leadoff - Way back when there was a gathering at Primanti's I asked FC about the third base situation - Andy, Walker, Alvarez - and if Alvarez would looking at a move to first.  His response - "We see Andy LaRoche as more of a candidate to move to first in the long run."  So, we could be subbing one LaRoche for the other, potentially.

"Hit away--possibilities are Hit with run scoring, K, popup, shallow fly, grounder that does not advance the runner,m line drive caught and causing a DP."

That's why you don't have a hitter like Jack Wilson in that spot in the first place - to remove the sac bunt from the sequence of events you start by replacing Wilson in the number two spot in the order with a guy who reaches base safely 38% of the time or better (preferably one who also hits an extra base hit when he does reach by way of  hit) there by reducing the likelihood of the many of those alternate outcomes.

Why would you chose an 100% probability of an out over a say 60 or 62%?

Diehard,

What is the probability that one's wingspan is directly related to their height?

I've seen some fairly short primates at the zoo with long arms and knuckles that drag on the ground.

Some people do have freakishly long arms, regardless of their height.

We need to consider those probabilities too you know.

;-)

leadoff

The numbers don't really support sitting Adam against lefties, as was pointed out above. Over the past three seasons, he's hit .263 against lefties and .280 against righties. That's not exactly a giant difference.

Craig Monroe at first would be interesting to me, if you really want a right handed bat in there. Hinske has hit .162 against lefties over the last three years. THAT is a platoon number.

"That's why you don't have a hitter like Jack Wilson in that spot in the first place - to remove the sac bunt from the sequence of events you start by replacing Wilson in the number two spot in the order with a guy who reaches base safely 38% of the time or better (preferably one who also hits an extra base hit when he does reach by way of  hit) there by reducing the likelihood of the many of those alternate outcomes."

Which is why Freddy, with his 10 XBH, track record of hitting a lot of doubles, going the other way, and current OBP of .358 has hit #2 in every game this year, except that one.  Sometimes when you need to give a player or two a day off you're going to have to go to a very different sort of lineup than your norm.

Going by protoype player for each batting slot is what Jim Tracy tried to do, even at the expense of really screwing some people up (Duffy) by trying to change the type of player they are.

UDN,

Speaking of playing the probabilities.....

Would you agree that is makes sense to bat high OBP guys like a Jason Bay or Albert Pujols in the leadoff spot to maximize their number of plate appearances and probability to score as many runs as possible?

@Bay

The numbers don't really support sitting Adam against lefties.

Again the idea is only to give him a rest now and then, and a hard throwing lefty with a nasty slider is a good reason to give him a rest, we are not suggesting a platoon situation for him.

The stats he has against left handers don't tell the story. What did he hit against CC last year.

How and when you get the stats is what concerns me, there are certain pitchers that hitters don't hit, that is a fact.

UDN

This is why your analysis breaks down.

1) The 100% probability of an out is productive, moving the runner to third, where he can score even with another out happening.

2) The probability, as you doubtless know, is less than 100%, since errors and poor fielding choices come into play. (Trying to get the runner at third, for instance.)  

3) MOST IMPORTANTLY, your analysis depends on a .380+ OBP guy.  Counting those AT .380, there were 22 of those in the whole league last year. Since we already know that you want your highest OBP guy leading off, that means that on average, no teams had what you want. (Two OBP guys over .380.)  

In reality, the following teams had two:

Chicago Cubs (Theriot and A.Ramirez)

Colorado (Holliday and Hawpe)

That's the list.  Adding in guys who played parts of a season in two different places gets you:

Boston (Youkilis/part of Manny)

Los Angeles Dodgers (Martin/part of Manny)

Atlanta (Jones/part of Teixera)

So five teams could've done what you wanted AT ANY TIME during the season.  Of course, most of these guys were also top 3 on their teams in homeruns, meaning you'd not bat them first or second.  Take those out and the guys who fit your paradigm are:

Ryan Theriot

Russell Martin

So congratulations, you're right that if you have one of those two guys on your team AND another player with a .380+ OBP who you can bat leadoff, you should not sacrifice bunt.  Of course, no teams have that, but that's immaterial.

UDN -- it's not a 100% probability of an out either, I know it doesn't change the stats all that much -- but there is bunts safely, fielding error, throwing error, fielder goes to third and runner stays at second.  Also he could walk anyway.  And if the infield cheats in a bit too much there's the chance he'll go for a poke where they ain't.  Those probabilities are not factored into your model because they don't keep attempted sac stats.  

In a world where everyone managed by the stats book, the defenses would adjust and  the stats would change remarkably.  Part of getting the advantage in real life baseball is doing unexpected things at unexpected times.

leadoff

I was giving a composite three year stat, so it isn't exactly biased. I agree that sitting him against the top 5 lefties in the league makes sense.  

I think we're all overly concerned about putting Doumit into extra games though. If he's not catching, I'd like him to get the time off for his knees.

Hadar,

If we do teach Monroe how to play 1B, to give Adam an occasional rest, then who do we start in LF and RF on those days?

Morgan and Young?

Morgan and Brandon "Zero RBIs" Moss?

First Timer...

Thanks for the quick lesson on probability.  I realize that there is no memory when it comes to theories of probability.  I was just trying to be a smart @$$ myself...

Just to add - live people play the game and they do have memories.  Stats have their place in the game - a very important place - but to base your ENTIRE managing decisions on theories is absurd.  

Remember the story of the '79 Bucs when Milner pinch hit for I believe Steve Nicoscia?  I think he was like 4-4 in the game, and then Tanner brought in Milner to pinch hit - against a lefty to top it off!  I believe the story went that someone asked Steve N why they were pinch hitting for him when he was having such a good day.  His response was that he never had four hits in a game before - what's the chances of him going 5-5.  Milner hit a Grand Slam to win the game.  Tanner made that decision on a hunch, and it worked.  Great story!

Will the Markov Chain help me at the roulette table?

NH -- Morgan & Moss, Hinske & Moss, Morgan & Hinske, Young & Moss, Morgan & Young, Hinske & Young -- in no particular order.  You play the guys you got.

End of the day, I definitely think there is a place in baseball for statistics and probability, but even more important IMO is talent.

We ain't got it.

We need it.

Our probability of winning would improve greatly with it.

End of the day, I'd take real, legitimate major league talent over a typical Bob Nutting roster and take my chances any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

When you have a roster of players who talent is commensurate with a payroll that is 40% below the league average, argueing the benefits of playing the probabilities is academic. Even if JR played every stinking probability strictly by the book for the remainder of the season, given the roster he is saddled with this season, I don't it making much of a difference.

I will say this though, if you have two teams of equal talent, playing the matchups and probabilities would definitely give one the edge over the other.

But that's just me......

Oh yeah, by the way, neither Theriot nor Martin has a career OBP of .380+.  And Martin was able to be over .380 only because he had a career-worst 38 extra base hits, and a career best 117 singles. His RBIs also dropped 18 despite playing four more games than 2007 and having a much better lineup around him.  Theriot accomplished the feat by shaving off 11 extra base hits (from 35 to a measly 24). He had 7 less RBIs in 43 more plate appearances. His 154 singles were, of course, by far his career high in that number.  

So if you want to raise your OBP number, and you're not a top 2 or 3 slugger on your team (and Martin was 4th on his team, only because Manny displaced him from top 3) then you need to hit more singles, and you'll drive in fewer runs.

UDN --On a personal note, thank you for defending your position without belittling those who take a different point of view.  I appreciate that.

Q

I can help you there. Bet black. ALWAYS. That will beat any Markov chain at the roulette table.  

Re - giving Adam LaR a break

I know Moss is a lefty, but hasn't he played a bit of first base?

Looks nasty out there, and is supposed to be rainy for three days, do the Marlins come back into town this year?

Q,

Actually, Chuck Tanner did play the probabilities in that Tug McGraw, Steve Nicosia, and John Milner game that year.

McGraw was a lefty whose out pitch was a screwball. A pitch that would run in and jam a righthanded hitter like Nicosia, but a pitch a dead pull left handed hitter like Milner could handle.

And now you know the rest of the story......

But in your defense, I remember listening to that game on the radio and wondering what in the blue blazes Tanner was doing. - It didn't make sense to me until Tanner explained his reasoning.

A great Pirate moment though, one of my fondest.

Tanner could do no wrong that season.

Bizzy,

They're fish, they are used to it being wet.

UDN

JH is right--a sac bunt is not 100% an out.  Also, as posted earlier--the situation makes a difference.  The other day Santana won a game 1-0.  Know how the Mets scored--walk, sac but the runner was safe on an error and lead runner went to 3rd, and a fielder's choice.  Game.  Had the Mets not  sacrificed they may not have scored and it would been 0-0 and they might lost in extra innings One run made the difference.

I believe this is the Marlin's only visit.  I would think tonight and tomorrow they will make every effort to play.  If the forecast for Wednesday improves, they could cancel tomorrow and gor for a day-night DH on Wednesday.  Downside is that Wednesday is looking rainy early, and the high is supposed to be 46.

JHadar,

You mean like....

"Let me explain a very simple concept......"

?

Agree with Hostage.  Our problem has been evaluating and accumulating talent over the years.  Our drafting of players has been anything but successful.  When we've drafted highly regarded players, they haven't come around to be legit MLB talent.  That leads us to very few success stories of our minor league system.  

The lineup isn't the concern, it's the guys that the manager can choose from for the lineup is the concern.

Because they already have sleeves...

The Detroit Lions have adopted a new, fiercer Lion logo.

sports.espn.go.com/.../story

Hostage

will say this though, if you have two teams of equal talent, playing the matchups and probabilities would definitely give one the edge over the other.

Since half the teams in baseball don't have any more talent than the Pirates, I would agree with the above theory, only thing missing is who pulls the strings on these matchups and probabilities, I would say the guy that is better at it wins most of the games.

What the Pirates don't have is depth at certain positions, I have illustrated that at 1st base, and pitching depth through the whole organization, that will take more than a year to get. That is not on Huntington, not a person on the planet going to turn this team around in a year and not an unlimited bank account would do it either, we are dealing with humans when we get ball players, who knows how they are going to perform with the arena they have arrived in.

Indians 22..............Yankees 4---------If this happened to the Pirates they would have to put a couple more servers on this blog site (probably just for you). Imagine spending 400+ million and charging no less than $80 for a ticket and putting that product on the field.

The Yankees like the Pirate fans are living in the past, the Yankees won before, will they win again? The Pirates lost for 16 years does that mean that they HAVE to lose for 16 more?

Diehard,

Being a former Detroit native for a few years, I still follow the Lions.

On one hand, I like the new logo, on the other hand, I've always thought there is something to be said for tradition and nostalgia.

I guess in the Lions case it is a good idea to let go of the past. And run. As fast as possible.

I lived in Detroit during Barry Sanders prime, after growing up in Pittsburgh and have the opportunity to see Dorsett at Pitt and Franco Harris with the Steelers. - After returning to Pittsburgh, I of course got to see the Bus.

IMO, Sanders was the best I ever saw. The guy was just incredible.

Hostage -- not quite as simple as your treatise on scoring more runs than the opponents earlier today, but lightheartedly yes.

Leadoff,

"(probably just for you)"

Now I have to admit that was funny. Even if it was at my expense.

You are probably right.

;-)

Diehard- If/when Pedro gets promoted (it appears that he should be in AAA, not high A) based on what I saw yesterday, the Pirates would be wasting him on 1B.  I don't think the pirates have seen an arm like his since Dave Parker (and maybe Nate too).  

I mean its high A, but Pedro saw more pitches in the dirt over the weekend than in the strike zone.  Word got out that he can hit.

Leadoff,

One other thing, I think there is a difference in fielding a low budget team with limited talent which IMO the Pirates are doing now and fielding a low budget team with an abundance of young talent which IMO is what the Marlins are doing.

The Marlins 25 man roster possesses more talent than the Bucs 25 man roster, regardless of the size of payroll.

IMO it is the job of an owner and GM to do the best you can to field a club that at least has a chance at competing, again throw away the payroll number.

In the Marlins case, they can do that with a $35M payroll because they have historically done a good job evaluating talent.

In the Pirates case, they have not done a good job evaluating talent, but instead of adding to the club payroll to get additional talent from the outside to give the club a chance at competing, the Nutting Pirates just punt on entire seasons at a time. That has been the case every year since 2004.

It's not right. It makes a mockery of the concept of professional sports IMO.

@NH - re - Chuck Tanner did play the probabilities in that Tug McGraw, Steve Nicosia, and John Milner game that year.

I was there, it was one of the best games I've ever seen, and a sweep to boot, its right up there with the Friday end of 78 sweep of the PDogs.  I remember we were questioning Chucks move, one of those nooooo  --- YYYYYYEEEAHHH moves

Hostage

Poor you--Pirates and Lions--you are a glutton for punishment

Hostage

I should have said for you and for me, I would have had a lot to say about that game if I were a Yankee fan.

"Would you agree that is makes sense to bat high OBP guys like a Jason Bay or Albert Pujols in the leadoff spot to maximize their number of plate appearances and probability to score as many runs as possible?"

Well every player's spot in the order is somewhat dependent on what other players in the in the lineup are capable of but in general I wouldn't put Bay or Pujols in the lead off spot because of their power.  Hitters 1 through 3 will get nearly the same number of at bats over the course of a season and I'd rather have all around good players like Bay and Pujols hitting third and using their power to drive in the guys getting on base ahead of them.

If you put those guys in the lead off spot a lot of their 2 and 3 run homers are going to turn into solo shots and that's not so good.

A few quick comments:

Jersey - night games - black;  day games - white;  gray - I don't like gray.  So my advice is to pick based upon the majority of your games.

First Timer:  my favorite way to start a big run-scoring inning is w/ a double.  Single - not enough;  triple - too rare;  HR - rally killer.

Probability:  People, there are WAY TOO MANY variables involved to correctly model baseball.  If you make an attempt to include them all, you may have completed calculating the best prediction for tonight's game sometime next week.  If you leave out important variables, then your result is biased.  So you should choose a few easily computed statistics and then use them accordingly (sparingly) along w/ individual experience in making decisions in some sort of consistent manner so as to get the most from your players.  IMO

"Will the Markov Chain help me at the roulette table?"

Not at all, that is a game of chance and the out come of each play is independent of every other play.

At NutHo:

"but instead of adding to the club payroll to get additional talent from the outside to give the club a chance at competing, the Nutting Pirates just punt on entire seasons at a time. That has been the case every year since 2004."

You had a pretty good post up unti lthis point.  The new regime is operating very differently than Littlefield.   I don't believe DL ever had a plan other than to manage the organization one year at a time.   We're still behind the way teams like the Marlins are doing things, but if you analyze what Frank and Neal are doing closely and very specifically, you'll understand.

JAL,

I moved to Detroit in October of 96.

In 97, the Michigan Wolverines (Always my second favorite college football team behind Pitt since I was a child) won the National Championship and the Red Wings won the Stanley Cup.

And the Red Wings repeated the following year.

And with the Steelers here, we've been fortunate to balance the Pirates and Lions habitual losing with winning from other interests.

Bizzy, you lucky dog to be at that game. - I remember exactly where I was when Milner hit that slam though, on vacation with my family at Canadohta Lake just south of Erie.

You know another great moment that season was when Tanner pulled Teke from the mound and put him in LF so he could have Grant Jackson pitch to lefty hitting Darrell Evans and Jackson left one out over the plate a little too much and Evans hits a pop fly to LF which Teke caught for the last out anyway.

Just magical.

Hostage

You are right Historically the Bucs have drafted poorly, unfortuneatly we can only go with the results we see from these drafts, but Historically is not what the new adminstration has to concern themselves with. The Marlins did not get built in a day or a year, and they did trade away top flight talent to get what they needed.

They made there moves wisely. This new management for the  Pirates came in without the chips to play that the Marlins had a few years ago and have only one choice, to draft the talent they need. No way you can evaluate the draft the Pirates had last year.

As we move forward, the past has effected the future because starting with nothing and having nothing to work with is a pretty tall order for any GM. Wouldn't it be nice if we could draft 1 player and turn this whole program around like the Steelers and Penquins------Rothlesberger and Crosby, Franchise players, in baseball one guy, one franchise player just won't do it.

UDN

If you put those guys in the lead off spot a lot of their 2 and 3 run homers are going to turn into solo shots and that's not so good.

If you put Pujols in the leadoff spot, you have the pitcher hitting in front of him and the number 2 hitter hitting behind him.

Question-Would anyone in their right mind pitch to him? He could get more walks thatn Bonds did.

Regarding the posts today.There seems to be a lot of hair splitting.So the "word of the day"...nanomanaging.

"This is why your analysis breaks down.

1) The 100% probability of an out is productive, moving the runner to third, where he can score even with another out happening."

No, your wrong.

There is not such thing as a productive out.  Making an out regardless of how it transpires removes opportunities from subsequent hitters from being able to achieve the same objective without making outs.  

Man on third one out mean you only get two opportunities to get drive in Morgan in - man on second nobody out gives you three opportunities.

Forget baseball for a second and think of it this way - I put a cup in front of you some number feet away and give you four coins and say if you can toss two in consecutively I'll give you ten thousand dollars: You get one in.  Would you then turn and throw the next coin in the field behind you?  

Why not?

21sthebest: Great point, but what a waste of your time. The Pirates could win every game and NuHo would still have Nutting theories of deceit and intent to devastate.

21

I kind of agree with you.  As much frustration I have had over the years watching this team, I like to think they are moving in the right direction now.  We won't know until they have a core group of guys that they've developed.

I think the problem with Nutting/McClatchy era was that they never put good baseball people in the right positions... GM, Scouts, etc.  I'm giving Frank C and Neal H a chance to build from within, so yes... I'm drinking their Kool-Aid.

Leadoff,

Not every situation is the same. The Marlins had a roster that recently won a World Series and enough talent that when they decided to rebuild, given their evaluating skills they were confident they could turn a world series winning roster into enough young talent to ensure an opportunity at competing within a relatively short period of time.

This Pirate regime inhereted a low budget, last place club devoid of talent with the exception of Jason Bay. They dumped him, but were unable to acquire enough good talent to turn the Bucs into a winner within a reasonable amount of time given the 16 year history. Instead, all they did was prolong the losing for another 5-7 years. At least.

The Pirates and Marlins situations were far different. The Pirates simply did not have enough talent to dump that would bring enough talent in return to rebuild into a winner.

IMO these guys are just spinning their wheels. DK just wrote a few snipets this past weekend regarding the lack of pitching in the system. - Without, this club has zero chance competing for the foreseeable future.

IMO, given the 16 years, given the publically funded ballpark, given MLB monies this owner receives, Pirate fans and the game deserved a different plan of action.

We may have a couple of promising looking sluggers in the system but without pitching to match, there really is no chance at competing anywhere on the horizon.

POH,

If your comment came from someone who hadn't predicted a 90 win season for this roster, I'd take it seriously.

Srsly.

Hostage

Agree

pitching always has been and, for foreseeable future will be the key.  

In 2008 7 of the top 10 team ERAs made the playoffs, including the Phils and only Oakland at #10 finished below .500

UDN wrote:

"No, your wrong."

My wrong what?

UDN wrote:

"There is not such thing as a productive out.  Making an out regardless of how it transpires removes opportunities from subsequent hitters from being able to achieve the same objective without making outs.  

Man on third one out mean you only get two opportunities to get drive in Morgan in - man on second nobody out gives you three opportunities.

Forget baseball for a second and think of it this way - I put a cup in front of you some number feet away and give you four coins and say if you can toss two in consecutively I'll give you ten thousand dollars: You get one in.  Would you then turn and throw the next coin in the field behind you?  

Why not?"

This is a perfect example of why your supposed "analysis" breaks down.  In your example, the predicate requirement to success is two occurrences IN A ROW.  That IS NOT the predicate requirement to scoring a run or more than one run in baseball.  Let us say the cup is four feet away.   I don't have to get it all the way in on the first try, I am just trying to get it in eventually.  If I can get it one foot closer each time, I can make my next try from there.  But if I overshoot my target, I have to go back to where I started that turn from.  I throw the first one two feet away.  Now, using my second try, I elect to move the first one to one foot away rather than going for the whole two feet at once.  Now I have two tries to get it in from one foot away.  

Of course, if I just hit it all the way in on the first try, I could win more than once.  That's how a homer works. But if I am not a good four-foot thrower (or homerun hitter) I have to try another strategy.  

This example STILL doesn't take into account errors/wild pitches/passed balls/balks. All of those get you (at least) another 90 feet in baseball.  Or lets say another one foot in our game.  If you've already put yourself just one foot away after using two tries, and then you get one of these "bonuses" like a wild pitch, you freely trot home/freely slide into the cup for a "win" of the cup-game.  

Here's another way of looking at it that might help:

You would never sacrifice bunt with two outs.  You would never purposely throw it one foot in front of you when you are three feet away if it was your last chance.  You have to try to hit with two outs because you have no more chances to score by all of the above options.  But with NO OUTS, a sacrifice bunt gives you a MUCH better chance of scoring. (Runners score significantly more often from third than from second, in general.)  Sure, the guy could still get stranded at third, and then you'd wish for another chance...but he could get stranded at any base, and that isn't the issue.  

UDN -- Pennies in the cup.  Poorly constructed analogy. As pointed out before, the odds are not 100% on an attempted sac bunt, and the chances of moving the runner from second to third (a smarter sac bunt than moving from 1st to second) but even so it gives you two chances to advance the runner one base rather than  three chances to advance the runner two bases.  You've also taken away the force play in the event of a walk to the next batter and the infield cannot play at double play depth.

Q, I think you're right but I also think they had many more problems like not drafting the best players available, spending money in the wrong areas (Burnitz, Randa, Young, Meares, Morris, Kendall, etc.), not making good trades, and not knowing how to develop what they had throughout the organization.

I think Frank and Neal have the right idea and the right plan for the most part.  What I don't know yet is if they can recognize talent well.  I think their first draft was very good on paper but it's really too soon to tell if it will be good on the field.

UDN

No such thing as productive out--bed to differ--bottom of ninth, 1 out, runner on 3rd, tie game, sac fly, game over , RBI, productive out.

Your coin comparison is faulty--to win your coin toss I have to get two in row.  In baseball I never have to get two hits in row.  

Theoretically I can score without another batter swinging --walk, steal with throw to second into CF, WP, run scores and batter did not swing.  

Nice to be somewhere with several people who recognize a faulty analogy.

JAL,

I'm not sure what the Bucs can do to obtain the front line pitching they will need to coincide with the arrival of the McCutchen's, Alvarez's, Tabata's, Ford's, etc.

Morris can't stay healthy, Lincoln is not the prospect he was prior to TJ surgery.

Do they break the Cardinal Nutting rule and try to retain Maholm even into his free agency years? - Do they attempt to trade a Walker or Tabata for pitching?

I agree that between their first draft and the dump of Bay we now have more offensive prospects than we did previously, but without the pitching, those promising young sluggers won't mean much I'm afraid.

They need pitching solutions and they need them fast if this club is going to have any chance at competing within the next 5 years. Otherwise, we'll miss yet another window. McLouth and Doumit will be gone to free agency and McCutchen and Alvarez will be reaching that point as well not far from then.

Game thread is up...

Shall we march?

Ants?  Inmates?  Anyone?

======================================

DK: Glad to help out.

JAL: a difference of .260 vs. .281 when throwing a strike vs. ball on the first pitch is an awful lot different from what we saw from Duke last night.  That said, you're right that it's not a surprise that he did better when throwing a strike -- but the magnitude of the difference is notable.

CuriousGeorge: I'm here, no violence necessary