Hinske, Pirates agree to terms

First.

DK, Thanks for putting this up.  I was trying to keep up in the other thread and got lost.  Great signing for today as long as Paul can keep the "fire" that Ian lost last year.  Now let's get Nate under contract so that we can look to adding a decent free agent.

I can't remember the timing of Snell's extension, although it seems like it was much earlier in the off-season.  This one comes late enough that, if Maholm is going to get fat and lazy, he's going to have to do it in a big hurry.  (-:

DK

thanks--it was getting unwieldy

Menk

Congratulations on being first on a thread.  Welcome to the small group who have done that :)

I am very happy with this signing.  However, in regards to Nate, I'd prefer to see another strong year before committing long term money to him.  We still have McCutchen and Tabata making a push, and I'd hate to see Nate falter and his contract become and albatross.  

DK:  I'm actually against the second post, but it's your show. *G*  Or are you contractually obligated to provide the PBC with enough thread(s) to make 25 sets of sleeves this year?

BB

Good point.  We do have more than 1 year to go on--in a more limited role in 2007 he hit .258 with 13 HR.  That's in about 250 less AB than he had in 2008 so he looks likely on the low end to hit around .260 with 20 HR but if progresses like he did from 2007 to 2008 could be around .290 with 30 HR.

If he progresses, then you have to lock him up no matter who is waiting in the minors.  Nate would be an established hitter, which is a great commodity on a team truly rebuilding.  This is a big season for Nate.

i got lost on the last one....my question is, whats the record for the most threads??

DMac -- From the previous thread where you were waxing optimistic on Moss.  I have to agree.  He hit 6 HR in 45 games which extrapolates to 20-25, maybe better if health was an issue.  Let's just say Nate has another 25-30 season and LaRoche improves (by hitting in April) and goes over 30.  Doumit hit 15 last year.  Then we sign Hinske and he comes off the bench with his 20.  Since it's such an interesting possibility, now add Nyjer hitting .300 + from the leadoff spot and a healthy Freddy at .320 or so.  Then if Wilson has an average season and Andy hits well enough to stay on the team you have a very good offense.  

You know it's equally possible to be optimistic about the pitching next year, too.

Before everybody starts hauling out the bubble-bursting pins, my point is that you're better off with someone competent at every position than you are with a superstar or two and not much else.  Once you get that core established, then you bring in the high priced talent to move things up to the next level.

Whod've thunk talk there'd be so much discussion about Jose Bautista today?  Jeez, I thought that issue was dead about a year and a half ago...

JAL: <We do have more than 1 year to go on>

Well put.  Also, I don't want to dig it all up now, but...  oh what the heck.  Here is the link to Nate's bbref page:

www.baseball-reference.com/.../mclouna01.shtml

Year over year over year improvement in EVERY SIGNIFICANT OFFENSIVE CATEGORY over a three-year period.  Raw numbers up in the counting statistics.  Averages up across the board (AVG, OBP, AND SLG).  Sheesh -- even his BB/K ratios got better!

That's more than a one-year flash in the pan to me. That's a trend.  Breakout year?  Maybe.  But also, it was the first year he crossed 500 AB's, for cryin out loud.

Nate is the real deal.  Remember you heard it here...  well, at some point.

STL

Hard to say but I know we have had at least 5 some days.

This is hilarious. A overflow thread.

What passionate fans we are!

Ignore  SirL, DK, he's an engineer. Everything has to be explained to him.

For those of you NOT at PirateFest on Saturday, a bit from the player Q&A: someone asked who should be acquired for a fantasy baseball team. Bob Walk was the answerer, and he said while Maholm, Capps and Doumit are "known quantities" and not cheap in fantasy league, Andy LaRoche is worth buying - he'll perform well -- break out if you will - and is not costly to acquire right now. Or as Walk said "he's cheap." Andy, God love him, just nodded and smiled.

POH , I always knew Walk was a smart guy.

This may be a really wild, even more goofy than normal for me idea but I will be curious to see if having Andy around in April will have a positive effect on Adam's ability to hit a baseball. Just wonderin'

PoH: <Everything has to be explained to him.>

HEY!  What's that supposed to mean?!!?!

Larry

Bautista--who knows why--we may even see him again.  For those who don't know:

2000--20th round draft pick by the Pirates

2003--Rule 5 pick by the orioles

2004--Selected off waivers by Tampa bay

2004-Purchased by KC from Tampa

2004-Traded by KC to the Mets for Justin Huber

2004-Traded to Pirates with Mike Patterson and Ty wigginton for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger

2008-Traded to Toronto for Diaz

PoH -

From the Maholm Thread Part 1: >>Anyone know what wing I live in, btw?<<

Yes, the Chris Duffy Paranoia Wing.

@ POH - re "What passionate fans we are!"

Granted this was a good news day, but gawd help us if we ever get something really exciting to bandy about...

Asane Asylum squared??  tripled??

@JH...There's lots to be optmistic about, I think.  I am confident the offense will get it together -- yes, I even count Adam in that.  ;-)

I am optimistic about the pitching as well...a few of those guys finished strong last season and Gorz looks great, so I have really high hopes for him too.  I can't be  a whole lot more positive about how the team looks right now...even with the bench still not necessarily complete.  

Sir L << HEY!  What's that supposed to mean?!!?! >>

Not sure -- but while the rest of us debate whether the glass is half empty or half full, the engineer takes the position that the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.

PoH -

>>Ignore  SirL, DK, he's an engineer. Everything has to be explained to him.<<

Ahem! SirL isn't the only engineer around here. Becareful or I and my fellow Carnegie-Mellon grads will put another insulting brochure on your office desk while you're at home tonight. :-)

Nothing wrong with being an engineer--Choo Choo Charlie was an engineer :)

W/O Trades: Doumit, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, Bautista, Bay, Nady, McLouth; Maholm, Duke, Snell, Gorzo, and ? w/Grabow and Capps COST: $60M+

W/ Trades: Doumit, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, LaRoche Jr., Morgan, McLouth, Moss; Maholm, Duke, Snell, Gorzo and Ohlendorf w/Grabow and Capps

COST: $50M

The team is more or less the same with or without the trades with the exception of the outfield, which is significantly worse.  3B is probably a wash with LaRoche Jr. and Bautista unless LJ surprises.

Last years' team was not competitive, but would be better than this years' team if you assume the FO is right that the pitching will improve this year.  The big difference is that the team will pay at least $10M less for payroll this season but will have a MUCH harder time complementing improved pitching with the offense they have in line.

Seems to me that they are playing the waiting game for when the team will look like this:

Doumit, Alvarez, Sanchez, Cunningham, LaRoche Jr., McLouth, Tabata, McCutchen; Snell, Maholm, Gorzo, Duke, Ohlendorf w/Meeks and Capps in the pen.

Problem is that the offense in that scenario may be cheap, but by then the pitching staff will cost $40M+ by itself.

@JAL "Bautista...2004-Traded to Pirates with Mike Patterson and Ty wigginton for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger

HEY, THAT WAS ACTUALLY A PRETTY GOOD TRADE ON THE PIRATES PART..

DMac << There's lots to be optmistic about, >>

Indeed there is.  This is a young team that has the potential to be solid at every position.  There are no superstars here, but everyone has demonstrated MLB potential.  Much will depend on the pitching staff coming around and on everyone remaining healthy.  The key word, of course, is potential -- and it would be nice if we'd catch a couple of breaks.  But at this point, especially with the way the opposition is getting a little weaker, optimism is seeming a lot more rational than it did about the first of September.  Can't wait for spring.

Justice Action League,

That's a choo-choo Ha-Ha!

Good one.

Groat

Glad you liked it :)

I can buy the excitement for watching Doumit, McLouth and the pitchers develop and to see if Wilson, Sanchez and LaRoche can perform at or above their career best.  I cannot buy any excitement related to the other 2/3 of the outfield.  The replacements are stop-gaps while waiting for McCutchen and Tabata.  If they do anything positive, they will get traded for prospects to clear the way.

JAL -

Re Choo-choo Charlie (Anecdote alert): Many years ago, one of the managers (Jack) at work was also a golfing buddy. He invited me to play in a tournament in Blackstone Virginia where he hailed from. At the banquet after the final round, Jack introduced me to his nephew who was about six years old. Jack introduced me like this: "This is [G-Man]. He's an engineer. He drives a train." Needless to say, I was the nephew's newest hero and best friend for the night. I did not have the heart to correct the misinformation.

Wieters,

Huh?  If Nyjer hits .300 and Moss has 25 HRs and then they get traded for a bunch of high upside prospects while we bring in a couple of guys who can do the same thing -- you can't seen any possibilities in that?  I hate to say it, but pessimism clouds the imagination.

WietersforPresident

Nate has come out and predicted that Moss was going to be a breakout player as Nate's teammates predicted he would be in 2008. Moss may be better than you give credit.

G-man

That is good story.  

Off to do some things now--back later

Pessimism may cloud the imagination; but unbridled optimism clouds judgment.

If you just want to have optimistic conversations and make unrealistic predictions about players who have no history to indicate the sort of performance you are hoping for, fine.  I guess I'll stay out of it.

I'm happy you are excited for spring.  I cannot say the same for myself.  I don't particularly care if you don't like my somewhat negative posts.  This is an open forum for discussing current topics related to the Pirates.  I guess you would rather read posts that predict Eric Hinske will hit 25 HR in spot duty, though.

Engineer joke:  You probably heard it already, but it's too true.

An engineering student is talking to his buddy.  "Nice bike!  Where'd you get it?"

"Well, I was walking along, when this beautiful girl came riding up on her bike," his buddy explained.  "She stopped right in front of me, stripped nude, and said, 'Take whatever you want!'"

"Good choice," says the engineer. "Who has time for a girlfriend?"

WfP:  And the optimistic people have a right to air their views, too, right?  Or should they all conform to your point of view?  How is that any different?

But cho cho charlie had a real horn to blow

WietersforPresident <<  I don't particularly care if you don't like my somewhat negative posts. >>

Is that post directed to anyone in particular? We have lots of negative posters here (sometimes I’m one of them), and we have lots of positive posters, we have posters that suspect conspiracies, and we have posters that are trapped between optimism and pessimism.

When have you ever been made unwelcome here?

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I want moved out of the Duffy wing, pronto. Can I be relocated? JAL? Anyone?

@Plenty

I told Ryan over the weekend that he better have a good year this year cause he is my starting fantasy catcher.  His reply was "Right On".

I could see Andy as having some fantasy value, but only as a second to last or a last pick.  Who knows which Andy will show up in April.

@PoH...A room opened up in the Van Slyke Memorial wing.  I'll have you moved there, asap.  ;-)

Wieters -- Sorry if I ruffled your feathers.  All I did was recast your post in positive terms.  You said

<< The replacements are stop-gaps while waiting for McCutchen and Tabata.  If they do anything positive, they will get traded for prospects to clear the way. >>

So I supplied a couple of positive that things that it is realistic for Morgan, a .296 hitter to go over .300 is not unrealistic, and Moss hit 6 HR in 45 games which extrapolates to 20-25 pretty easily.  It's not like I was forecasting something unreasonable like being the 999,999th visitor on half a dozen websites in a single day.  

I just couldn't see a downside to what you proposed -- Morgan and Moss having good seasons and then being traded for good prospects when you have McCutcheon and Tabata coming in with more promise.  

If you don't want your posts discussed, don't post them.  But getting all gruff and letting me know how much you don't care really doesn't explain your logic.  You strike me as somebody who might have something to say -- but I thought that particular line of reasoning did not make very much sense.

Anyway, nothing personal.  Just because I challenge an idea certainly does not mean I think it has no merit, or that I don't appreciate the person behind it.  Say what you will.

PoH -- There's the Manny Sanguillen wing for eternal optimists.

PoH -

>>A room opened up in the Van Slyke Memorial wing<<

DMac's post reminds me that, if you are ever looking to relocate to Virginia, we have regions here called Northern Neck and Curles Neck that might be to your liking.

I don't have the background to say there are two Andy's like there are two  Adams. Andy was hurt. For probably a hundred reasons, the full disclosure of his thumb injury affecting his game is more known now than in the season. Kind of like how JBay in 2007 didn't say a whole lot about his knees until near the end there, but in 2008 - the first half - he was clear that with better knees, he was a better player.

I feel more comfortable knowing something is hurt - that can be fixed. Adam doesn't have a hurt, he has a "I don't know why that  happens."

Weiters - I second UglyKen's question - have you been made unwelcome? I'm not trying to start an argument or raise a fuss. If you have  been, I apologize. Stick around. If you think this place is all optimistic, read on. Srsly. Have you met NuttingHostage, btw?

Hey Pirates018 - nice to see you around these here parts.

DMac: Umm, last I checked, this guy: media.washingtontimes.com/.../20080701-003349-pic-552729504.jpg

... ain't dead yet.  Hence, "Memorial" is prolly the wrong word... *G*

Pirates018: <Who knows which Andy will show up in April.>  Are you referring to Adam's Awful Aprils?  Or Andy's miniscule two-month sample size?  Either way, whoever shows up better hit...

@Sir L...it's in memory of the games he played for the PBC. ( work with, would ya! ;-)

All: <this guy>

Oh, and please notice:  He has sleeves.

Who carers whether or not the glass is half full  I want to know what NH is going to rant about when TPTB sit back and watch THIS team THIS year perform and finish 7 games over 500 and 12 games behind whoever wins the division.

Sir L - that link ought to come with a KOOL and a match. srsly.

BTW ---  Yinz see the latest title of this page?

The word Wieters in this blog tends to make the hair stand up on one's neck if a Pirate fan.

WFP- You're fine.  There are realists, and they are a few that come into the blog that do not get out much and may need balance (and actual mediciation).   I do not think you are one of those.   I have probably the rosier glasses on this blog, and I understand your point.

That being said, I liked Moss's at-bat against Huston Street in the Japan game last year.  Is he Jason Bay? No (or Not yet), but is the possibly of Andy Laroche (who desperately needs to get off to a hot start) and Moss equal to the production of Bay and Baustia?  I think that potential exists

PoH: <a KOOL and a match>  *LM-GM-O*  Glad to be of service, madam. *G*

For the love of MIchael the Archangel and all that's Holy ... nearly 220 posts on the Maholm signing ... and whatever else our little Bucco hearts desire?

Alright, Plenty, Cap'n, DMac, Pirata, gather round me, I don't mind being the first male cheerleader here on the blog:

"Two Bits, Four Bits, Six Bits, $54 million dollars.

We're living on the cheap but we can do it this year ... stand up and holler!"

Hinske just agreed to terms.  (See Dejan's update above)  No new thread, guess the overflow is working.

Indianafanatic - attaway on the over .500. Yesiree bub! BSKOF for YOU!!!!

Hinske? Lemme thimske... he does what again?

Eric Hinske welcome to the Pittsburgh Pirates.  May you assist the Pirates in gaining the wild card in 2009.  

Hinske, Pirates agree to terms

Sorry about that Doug, but I can't see us bringing ya back now.

Another thread for Doug mourners, please ... and a few sack cloths and ashes.

Hey, maybe Hinske becomes our Lefty McThump ...

Word on the street: He's our April and May guy, LaRoche Mr. June-September ... 55 home runs between them, with HInske knocking No. 55 into the Allegheny last day of the regular season to send us into the playoffs.

Hey, my wing of the asylum is filled with dreamers!

I can't wait to hear what other items JLP has to get rid of.  ;-)

So...if all goes well, I am assuming this is a ML deal for Hinske and someone has to come off the 40 man roster...we discussed it a little bit yesterday, or the day before...Barthmeier?  R. Sanchez?  Cruz?  Anyone else have any thoughts?

Sorry Bay. It'll be all right. Srsly.

I'm sure I used more aggressive language than necessary.  I think the disagreement arose from interpretation of my statement that if Moss and Morgan do anything positive they will get traded for prospects.  Given my previously stated position that Moss and Morgan are only in there because Nady and Bay would have cost at least $12M this season and that I expect close to nothing out of either of them, anything positive in my mind was not hitting .300 or 25 HR.

Also, the trade climate in baseball these days is such that you rarely get top prospects unless you are parting with someone like Texeira.  Look at the Bay trade...we got LaRoche, who had been rated highly by Baseball America, but has done exactly nothing at the MLB level to prove they were right.  Further, he fell out of favor with his club and was benched behind a different 3B prospect in LA.  We got Craig Hansen, who has control and attitude issues and Moss, who seems like a good guy with a modest ceiling.

As such, I see little reason to think that Moss and Morgan could do enough to garner a decent prospect in a trade.  If they did that well, the Pirates would be better off keeping the guys and we'll all be happy.

Looking back at my posts, I think they are consistently pessimistic with respect to everything the FO does because all of their actions seem financially driven.  Their actions may result in a stronger franchise in the long run, but I see the next 3 seasons being filled with substantial growing pains.

I guess I'm having a hard time getting the point many of you seem to be at...feeling the same way, but moving past it to focus on the possibilities that spring will bring.  I hope I get there at some point.  In the meantime, happy posting.

By the way I flipped some of this stuff around to move the Hinske agreement to the top and avoid confusing people new to the post. I also changed the time of publication next to the byline to reflect the time of the Hinske update<<>>

Funny guy

JAL wrote re: An overflow Maholm thread

on Thu, Jan 29 2009 8:24 PM

Menk

Congratulations on being first on a thread.  Welcome to the small group who have done that :)

Does not every thread have one, two more funny guys

Weiters

Have to see what Andy does with a healed thumb.  One season does not make or break a player regardless of how they perform in it.  

Praise the spirit of baseball, The added 1sr base insurance sure does make me feel  we will not be handcuffed at first for the first of the season.

JJ

Funny ha ha or funny peculiar :)

POH

You can have a room in any wing you want.

@Bay,

You are quite the dreamer these days. Yesterday the preview of the World Series, today you describe how we get to the playoffs.

I imagine your wing of the asylum is rather empty. Would you happen to have an extra room down there for me?

Wieters-  I agree with you 100% on the "I'm not trading my 7th rated prospect for a current all-star" .  The Devil Rays pretty much blew it last year, when they had Gabe Gross in Right field.  NH wanted Wade Davis, who the Rays won't trade for Bay.  

MLB has changed 180 degrees on the prospects in the last 5 years.  Now a 3rd round pick toiling in AA (Kyle Bloom) is worth a John Grabow type, and that makes no sense.  

The FA and trade climate makes things difficult, for sure.  

I agree about giving LaRoche Jr. a chance to play with a healed thumb, but has anyone asked the question of why he was even allowed to play when he was that injured?  Why not sit him down and put your bench guys in that role?

I am always astounded when you hear that a player (in any sport) had a terrible year because they were severely injured and played through it.  At what point does management corner the player and get an honest assessment of their health?

Weiters -- Thanks.

Three years ago I would have had no trouble with the "everything's financially driven" point of view.  

I don't think Nutting is the evil cheapskate that he's made out to be.  That he was willing to throw money at Morris, Burnitz, Randa, and so many others indicates that the front office was incompetent.  Littlefield's incompetence never built up a squad that demanded a high payroll.  McLatchy was in charge at the time of the Ramirez debacle.  

It was just two years ago that Nutting took control and he has begun a slow but inexorable house cleaning.  The Bay and Nady trades were the result of us being 50-58.  Had the pitching not collapsed, I think we might have been 60-48 at the trade deadline, and the FO would have taken another course.

Huntington and Coonelly have begun a system-wide rebuilding program that will take awhile to flower, but it has more promise than anything I've seen in the last 16 years.

Finally, it really is not unreasonable to believe that a .296 hitter, Morgan, who is still learning the game, can't get to .300.  Or that Moss who hit 6 HR in 45 games his first time up can't hit 20-25.  Those are not pie in the sky blind hope ravings, but only require a little bit of improvement.  Hinske hit 20 HR in 389 ABs off the bench last year.  Our home field would seem to favor him a little more.  

Of course, all optimism is guarded -- but I believe very strongly that the success or failure of this year's club is very much in the hands of the pitchers.  I think the offense will be OK.

Sanchez hit .346 after the all star break.  LaRoche, for all that's been made of his slow start had 26 HRs and a decent BA, and Doumit & McLouth need only to match what they did last year.  This team is just not as weak as some would make it out to be.  But the question mark is pitching.  

That's why I'm optimistic, and why I don't think my optimism is an unreasonable position to take.  At least while everybody's healthy and there's some hope for the pitching.

Hey, guys and ladies, lets be careful about this.

Yes, a good day, good news, but this doesn't solve all of our problems, one year, someone posted they were hoping for two, now that is a gamble, Hinske does well, well there we go again next year, re bench.

A good day though, Maholm signed, someone for the bench,a left handed  bat with punch.

Some fall in love with the Burgh, thats whats its gonna take, plus some either "money isn't everything", aka Doumit and Maholm (and I still think JBay thinks that way), or, hey, this is a nice place to play and you never know.

Yes to all, I am the grinch, party on, but remember, please a few real things.

Re- postings - the Man knows what he's doing, listen to DK for posts, listen to Nurse Cratchett for the meds, listen to Mr NH for realism. Don't trust anyone in the government.  

Listen to POH and DMac for hope - then take your anti-diabetes meds, kidding you two.

Root for the Stillers

Hope that NH and FO know what the heck they are doing, am not sure about the "plan", but I'm from the Burgh, its in my genes.

A good day, even for the grumpy guy in the corner.

I love this place....

While I'm not thrilled with this signing, I'll be glad to support Hinske. The power will be a nice addition and if LaRoche has his usual struggles early, Hinske could come in quite handy. Nothing against Hinske, as I don't know what his leadership qualities are, but I still think that either Gonzalez or Mientkiewicz, or both, would have been great for the young guys. With Mccutchen and Tabata on their way, I wouldn't want to see Hinske or even Moss block them. Right now most of the power is from the left side of the plate and Mccutchen and Tabata could do a lot to balance that out.

Well, that's a day for me.  Long weekend ahead.  If the weather is good, whether or not I'll be checking in will depend on whether or not I can find an internet connection.

In the meantime, remember I'm pullin' for ya'.  We're all in this together.

Glad about the Hinske signing.  He can play the corner OF and third, plus offer some power as a pinch hitter.

Something about the Tim Redding article really stuck with me -some players really do want to play for their favorite / hometown teams.

Now $2.2mil isn't anything to sneeze at, but I wonder if there was a bit of discount because it was a New York team.  This guy actually told his agent, go ahead and get me some options but NY is where I want to be.  So maybe we should keep that in mind regarding some of these free agents.  ( ie Rocco Baldelli )

hellooooo

to any and all optomists ou there. i gotta say that,  at this time if year, no matter what team you root for, you either think you got robbed or your owners are not smart enough to to be robbers, but I have Plenty of the H word and will always attempt not to denigrate others who are not wearing the rose colored shades and drinking the black and gold koolaid, but that probably stems from the fact that here in cubbie land th evil empire thinks they and only they have all the answers

I get IRATE when the papers only write about the hated cubs even to the expense of coverage of other good teams  no Rays items until series here. but i digress and remind all that until games are played nothing is etched in stone and for crying out loud how long are we gonna beat the dead horse of previous mistakes, lets move FORWARD

funny ha ha, JAL

DK

"By the way I flipped some of this stuff around to move the Hinske agreement to the top and avoid confusing people new to the post. I also changed the time of publication next to the byline to reflect the time of the Hinske update."

Like we would get lost trying to follow anything in the asylum.

Ncie try!

JAL -

>>You can have a room in any wing you want.<<

I won't speak for anyone else, but I'm okay with taking the money we would have spent on sleeves, switch back to the vests and building a Plenty of Hope wing on the asylum. Srsly.

So which one of yinz ponied up the $500 for the Mientkiewicz vest at PirateFest? You can tell me...

G-man

That is fine--she still needs a room until her wing gets built :)

I feel another hijacking of the Nightly Sports Call coming on!

WFP,

 In my opinion, I don't think Moss will be going anywhere.  He and Laroche Jr were the centerpiece(s) of the Bay trade.

 But I understand where you are coming from.  Let me throw this at you.  July 1, 2009.  Laroche Jr, Moss and a few other of the pieces we received in the trades are performing nicely.  The Bucs are 6, 7 games under 500.  The deadline is approaching.

  What do you do with: LaRoche Sr, Sanchez, Wilson and Grabow?  

For what it's worth. I hope Doug catches on somewhere that appreciates him half as much as we did. I also hope he has his best year ever. Professionally and personally.

When my bell rings and I'm facing St. Peter, DMac, I'm blaming you!

We're nearly sold out, but we do have a few remaining "Dirty Doug Casts Out the Moneychangers" Fleece Blankets. No reasonable offers will be refused.

JLP

Nearly sold out--I 'm sure the last few will go for a reasonable price.

I read JHadar's reasons for optimism and decided to post my reasons for pessimism.

1.. .316 winning percentage post deadline  trades.

2.  Worst pitching staff in the National League.

3.  No veteran additions to the starting rotation.

4  Run production dropped about 1 run/game (from 5+ to 4+) post deadline trades.  Not a good omen with a pitching staff with an ERA over 5.00.

5.  A predominate left handed hitting line up that will struggle against LHPs.

6.  "Rebuilding"

7.  Two LaRoches on one team.

8.  Our new staff ace, Mr. Maholm, has a career era over 4.00 and a losing record.

9.  Kerrigan is not up for Sainthood as far as I know, and he won't be performing miracles.

10.  We remain at the bottom of our division's payroll and in the standings.

Other than that, I am pumped for the 2009 season!  :-((((

What do you do with: LaRoche Sr, Sanchez, Wilson and Grabow?  

Package deal for Jamie Moyer?

@egscoach - First let me say that I was vehemently opposed to trading Bay last year.   The whole point of team building is to identify the right pieces and put them together.  Bay was the right piece in my opinion.  That said, since the Pirates traded him I think they are far enough from contention that, given your scenario, I would trade LaRoche Sr. and Wilson since they cost $14M combined and hang on to Sanchez and Grabow since they are relatively inexpensive for their production level.  I guess you could trade Grabow as well since I'm not sure a non-contending team necessarily needs a lefty bullpen specialist.

I can see the Pirates hanging on to LJ and Moss like you suggested, but I would bet they end up bench players in favor of Alvarez and McCutchen or Tabata.  Who knows though?  Noone thought Ryan Ludwick or Josh Hamilton would light it up last year, and look at their years.

@ Allarmy...nice post.  I can't argue with any of that.  Any predictions of success for next year are predicated on statistical improbabilities and prayers.

I think the best measure of how long it takes to build from the ground up without spending on FA or MLB talent is the TB Rays.  You need a number of years of strong drafting and opportunistic acquisitions.  The Pirates are just too early into that in my opinion.  It is not NH's fault that Nutting allowed Littlefield to systematically destroy the entire system, but he does have to deal with it.

Starting tomorrow we'll be offering "Joe Kerrigan Parting the Red Sea" BBQ Apron and Oven Mitt Set. These will be big sellers, folks. Better get the Rapid Refund option.

Let me be clear: I'll bear no ill will towards Hinske. It's hardly his personal fault that we lost having DD on our club. Hinske is a Bucco now, so I hope he's a raving success. But seriously, those who are anticipating him hitting another 20 HR "off the bench" are being wildly optimistic. For starters, he wasn't really a bench player last year -he had nearly 400 at bats. If he sees that many at bats again this year, it means someone else is losing playing time. And the only other time Hinske ever hit as many HR's, was back during his rookie year. Twenty more in '09 is hardly a given.

And whether off the bench, or starting, he's a lefty. I thought we were in the market for a righty. Our genius in the FO just topped off our roster without taking care of the need for a right-handed power bat. Now watch; Steve Pearce will hit the tar off the ball in ST, will bat .370, but NH will send him down to Indy. Heard it hear first, folks.

Help me out on this gang: if Nutting Hostage's initials are NH, can I abbreviate "Neal Huntington Hostage" as NHH? Or how about NH2?

AllArmy,

No. 7: "Two LaRoches on one team.", is a downright horrifying thought. (Shudder, shudder, shudder.)

JL wrote - "Now watch; Steve Pearce will hit the tar off the ball in ST, will bat .370, but NH will send him down to Indy. Heard it hear first, folks."

JL,

That would never happen, oh wait, didn't he lead the team in ST homers last year?  He was also one of the early cuts to minor league ST....  Never mind!  ;-)

PoH -

>>So which one of yinz ponied up the $500 for the Mientkiewicz vest at PirateFest?<<

Don't make fun. If you think about it, it comes to $41.67 per letter, a good deal in a Pittsburgh personalized jersey, second only to Roethlisberger by two letters. My vest only has seven letters. I feel like I was robbed by Bernie Madoff.

JLP -

A good marketing guy would turn that into: "Starting tomorrow we'll be offering "Joe Kerrigan Parting Ways with the Red Vest" BBQ Apron and Oven DouMitt Set." I'm pretty sure PoH and DMac would buy them that way.

Allarmy

Point 2--worst staff in NL--on stats yes but on potential, no

Point 3-Who did you want added?  What good would adding veteran be if, as you claim, worst staff?

Point 4-Lets break is down a bit more--April--4.4 RPG, May-5.3 RPG, June-4.5 RPG  July--5.2  August-3 RPG  September-4.6 RPG--So s September was better than April or June.  The runs dropped post trade due to a very bad August--otherwise no significant drop

point 5--Not necessarily, some leftys hit leftys well and, fortunately, less leftys than rightys

Point 6--Rebuilding--impossible--there is nothing to rebuild--I go for "building"

Point 7--This is joke, right?  You do not really think Adam is the problem with this team, do you?

point 8-Irrelevant--He may regress or he may progress.  He is coming into the prime of pitcher.  I don't care what he did in the past, only what he does this year.

Point 9--irrelevant-Kerrigamn is not a good reason for optimism or pessimism

Point 10--If payroll won pennants the rays would not have in the WS last year and the yanks out of the playoffs.  In January ther is no last ot first in the standings

Since the Bucs are in a total rebuilding mode (for the big-league team and the organization as a whole) I would like to see Adam Laroche go. If he could put together a full year at the plate it would be fantastic, but if he hits well in April and keeps it up for the entire first half, get rid of him. If his trade value can be optimized then get rid of him and move Pearce back to first base. Pearce did pick up his power production at the tail end of 08 and he has always gotten a decent amount of doubles. After the break this year it would be great to see an outfield of Mclouth, Mccutchen, Moss or Morgan, and then an infield of Pearce, Sanchez, Wilson, and being optimistic, Neil Walker. I just think that Andy LaRoche has had plenty of opportunities to compete at the big-league level and he has never cashed in on it. Instead of letting another organization's castoff get their 2nd or 3rd chance in Pittsburgh, why not let one of our guys get that shot? Give Andy LaRoche a few months and if he hasn't taken advantage of the opportunity, bring Walker up.

JAL,

As always, you make some good points.  But I would like to debate a couple with you, just for fun....

"Point 2--worst staff in NL--on stats yes but on potential, no"  -- Potential doesn't count in the W/L record, production does.  I have heard about the "potential" of this staff since 2006, it never came to fruition.

"Point 3-Who did you want added?  What good would adding veteran be if, as you claim, worst staff?" -- That was Huntington's goal, not mine - (so far) he has failed to achieve a stated goal.....

"Point 10--If payroll won pennants the rays would not have in the WS last year and the yanks out of the playoffs.  In January ther is no last ot first in the standings" -- Since the NLC division came into existance, the team with the lowest payroll has NEVER won the division.  That sir, is a trend.  The Rays have a completely different scouting staff than do the Pirates, their success, is their success.  Are they one year wonders?  We will see......

.  

Falling in love with minor league power hitters is oft leads to major disappointment.

JLP- In a perfect world, Doug's wife makes a full recovery from her surgery.  At last update, she was about 80% I believe.  I would hope that either the Pirates or another MLB club realizes his contributions off the bench (the Dodgers or Padres could really use him) and  I would hope he adds another World Series ball to his collection in 2009 (he has the Boston ball from 2004).

I wish him the best, as I would think he would of us.  

In a perfect world, he re-joins the Pirates in July around the trade deadline and helps the Pirates beat the Cubs in games that matter.  

Also, I'm not sure how the Pirates are making their roster, but I wonder if they go 12 pitchers or 11?   I would think 12 if Veal makes the team.  

@JLP...Blame me?  Me?  Sweet me?  FOr what?  :-)

@All...You all have been busy!  

@JAL...very good remarks to all those points...I won't add anything more.  

Allarmy

Point10--that is a shift--now you are talking about scouting and supporting my point--good scouting, good drafting, and good player development should produce a good team.  The rays may be one year wonders.  The Pirate payroll should be low right now because they don't have anyone worth a big salary.  If the Pirates improve the payroll will increase.  They signed Doumit and Maholm and spent a good bit on PA.

I agree, it is rare for the lowest payroll to win the pennant.  

Point 2--You are correct, potential doesn't win games.  You have seen the potential, just not all together--take Maholm's best season, Gorzo's best, Snell's best, and Duke's best and you have a pretty good staff--question is will any three of them put the same good season together.  Don't discount how well Maholm pitched last season--15th best ERA in the NL is very good.  Not great, but very good.

Poait 3--as for NH and the veteran pitcher--have to wait until the FAs are all gone before we can declare that goal met--he didn't sauy add one by January 28. :)

JAL,

"Falling in love with minor league power hitters is oft leads to major disappointment."

Not sure if that was an admonishment intended for me or not, but let me respond as if it were. I'm not in love with Pearce. But I do think that '09 should be the year we give him a serious test and find out what we have in him. Same with Morgan, Moss, Lil LaRoche, and all the other young'uns, the bulk of whom are our future. (McCutcheon and some of the other "very" young'uns, can either continue to be seasoned in Indy, or put to use up here if they're ready; whichever their respective performances dictate.)

Now, if Pearce fails miserably, then I can understand shipping him off to Indy. But my remark above, had less to do with how I think he will actually do in Spring Training, than how I think there's a stroooonng chance that even if he DID hit like gangbusters, NH would still show favoritism towards Hinske to justify his acquisition,and  instruct JR to play him -at Pearce's expense. It's not like NH hasn't already shown such an egregious proclivity.

I think this team will be better than last year's team strictly because we have more quality pitchers to choose from.  Everyone says the Pirates made a mistake last year saying the guys in the rotation were guaranteed a rotation spot.  If not them, who?  We didn't have anyone else to start the season with.  We shuffled filler in there all season.  Now some of that filler ended up being okay, while most of the starters bombed.  But the real problem was having no pitching depth.

After trading Jason Bay and Xavier Nady, the Buccos were able to gather some almost MLB ready arms and some quality prospect bats.  The signing of Eric Hinske provides nice depth on the bench, so now there is not as much pressure for Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, and Nyjer Morgan to all produce.  

And I hold out hope we can really compete this year.  The Tampa Bay Rays started last season coming off a worse record the year before than what we are up against this year.  So, I think we have a chance to shock the world.  

If we can add Ben Sheets or someone like him, let's add a veteran starter. If it is a Matt Morris wannabe then Neal should leave it on his wish list and not torture us with another way past his prime arm.

JAL,

One more point:

"Point 4-Lets break is down a bit more--April--4.4 RPG, May-5.3 RPG, June-4.5 RPG  July--5.2  August-3 RPG  September-4.6 RPG--So s September was better than April or June.  The runs dropped post trade due to a very bad August--otherwise no significant drop" -- At the time of the trades, the Pirates were in the top 5 - 7 in MLB in runs scored.  At the end of the season, they ranked 19th.  That is a pretty significant drop in the rankings over 1/3rd of a season.  

There are a lot of schools of thought on how people evaluate teams.  There are stats galore to prove or disprove nearly any argument.  A lot of people like to discuss "potential" - I don't, it isn't measurable.  Production is measurable. Personally, there is only one stat that counts in team sports, and that stat is wins and losses.  A .316 winning percentage would add up to a 51 - 111 record over an entire season.  I certainly hope (and pray) the 2009 version of the Pirates plays better than the team that closed out the season with that putrid number.......

JL

Wasn't aimed at you--just a general statement based on baseball history.  Good power hitters are usually hitting a lot of MLB HR's in their early 20 .  Ryan Howard is an exception, not the norm.Mike Schmidt hit 18 at 23 and 36 at 24;  Thome hit 20 at age 23, 25 at 24 and 38 at 25--could go one and on with players but the point is that MLB Hr hitters who aren't in the majors by age 22 or 23 rarely have much of a career.

No problem with letting him play and seeing what he can do--he may do quite well.

Allarmy

Oh yes, playing better than they did at the end of last season is something we all should hope for.

As for runs, rankings can be due to a drop by one team or an advance by another.  My point was that the past trade runs is skewed by a terrible August--a total team slump--maybe it was shock from the trade, maybe it was getting adjusted to new players--runs scored went right back to the norm in September.  Hitting wasn't the problem, pitching was.  

Lets go by monthly ranking--April they ranked 23 in runs, May they ranked 6th, June they ranked 17th  July they ranked 9th, August they ranked 30th, and September they ranked 15th--again, the terrible August skews the results--in the post treade moth of Sept. they ranked higher than had in the pre-trade months of April and June

JAL wrote: "Thome hit 20 at age 23, 25 at 24 and 38 at 25--could go one and on with players but the point is that MLB Hr hitters who aren't in the majors by age 22 or 23 rarely have much of a career."

So are you saying that players who come out of a 4 year college program should be avoided like the plague?  Maybe the Pedro Alvarez signing wasn't any good?  Please explain......  I am confused.....  

Perhaps we should take kids right out of college at age 22 and send them straight to the majors, God forbid they wouldn't make it too the majors until they were 25, they are doomed before they start....  ;-)  

JAL,

I do remember when Derek Jeter started showing a little home-run power, it was mentioned that hitting home runs at the major league level is an acquired skill which comes after first learning how to "hit" at the major league level. Mark McGuire was thrown out as an exception.  But you have provided a few other examples to counter that, as well. I don't really have a take on this arguement, though I suspect ample examples can be found for both models. Jay Bell is another who comes to mind, that developed power halfway through his career. I do hope that the Jay Bell model is what Ryan Doumit is following. He's proven he can hit major league pitching. I'm hoping the HR's will soon follow. As for Steve Pearce, yes "No problem with letting him play and seeing what he can do--he may do quite well." That's all we

can ask. He is almost 26 years old, but his experience at the Majors is still quite limited. We'll see.

Just sticking my head in before lunch and putting my 4 pesos in. Absolutely love Maholm and the Bucs agreeing long term. Hopefully he will earn it and not have an off year like Snell. Also have to say that Hinske looks like a good signing as well. Gives the team depth at 4 positions and although another lefty, has very good power numbers. Have read the negative comments, but I think the Pirates will field a much better team opening day than they did on the final day of last season.......

i didn't read all of the 117 replies to this point, but can this hinske dude steal bases?

I really don't think it is unreasonable to expect the Pirates to field a competitive team at the MLB level while building their system.  It is fine to have a young pitching staff, but it isn't a bad idea to complement it with a solid veteran presence.  Not a $10M waste like Morris, but a decent clubhouse presence that can provide consistent performance and stability in the rotation would be nice.

Also, I think that it its great that the A's, Twins and Rays can make the playoffs from time to time with low payrolls, but it is absolutely an advantage to be able to spend $200M on payroll instead of limiting to $54M.  You cannot make an argument to the contrary.  It may be hard to piece together a team regardless of payroll, but high revenue, free spending teams will always have an advantage.

I'd like to see the Pirates go after Chone Figgins via trade. He's an on-base machine, can play anywhere, and steals a pile of bases. The Pirates are really lacking that kind of leadoff guy.

Boru--welcome  to the asylum--meds and jacket at the desk.  room being prepared.

n/m on the sb. i discovered the essentials link above.

yet another reason to bring mccutchen up and stop renting predictable mediocrity.

Allarmy--a question; I was not in the military, so don't know the answer to this question. And I'm not trying to be smart because I have the utmost respect for someone like you who dedicated your life to the military, but on your point about potential not being measurable, what do you do with guys who have not seen combat?  Don't you have to do a similar thing in looking at raw talent, what they have done in exercises, judgments about their perceived strength of character and ability to deal with adversity, etc.?  I just don't see how you can say potential means nothing and discount Maholm based on a "career losing record and ERA over 4.00."  Maholm has demonstrated over his career that he is a gamer, a winner and someone who has overcome some substantial adversity.  (If you haven't done so you should click on the link DK's '05 story about Maholm.)   To discount him based on his career numbers, IMHO, is a huge mistake.  He apparently trains and prepares for his starts more than any of his fellow pitchers on the PBC and has the kind of focus and drive and talent that should not be dismissed as irrelevant based on his career numbers on a losing team.  Just asking.

PI---I don't think you have to worry; Maholm and Snell are not similar in any respect other than they have more than one year contracts.  I like Ian, but my understanding is he does nothing intellectually between starts to prepare for the next one other than occasionally (at least once) looking on his smartphone at a CC start.  I think there was some reporting at the end of the season that Maholm even called him out about his lack of preparation.

JL and Allarmy

Not saying do not go after college players.  When i use the term power hitters I mean someone who hits 35 to 40 for a number of years.  Non power hitters do develop more power as they play.

They top power hitters come out college and make it up in couple of years.  Bob Horner didn't even go to the minors.  Thome came up his 2nd year playing.  Schmidt was drafted in 71 and in the majors in 72

time for me to head off for the night.  Back tomorrow morning with links.  Great discussion tonight thanks to all who chimed in

Thanks JAL!

The problem with power hitters is that there are not really that many around.  At least, now that there has been a crackdown on steroids.  Of your definition of power hitters hitting 35+ HRs consistently, just look at least year alone.  There were only 11 who hit at least 35.

Of course, there are many more who come in just under that in the 30 - 34 range.  My theory is that those numbers are misleading too.  

My reasoning is that power begets power.  If you are batting in front of an Albert Pujols, you are going to get many more good pitches to hit because the last thing the pitcher wants to do is walk you with Pujols up next.  And, the guy batting after Pujols is going to get more good pitches to hit because Pujols gets on base so much.  

Do you think Ryan Ludwick would have had such a great year last year playing for Kansas City?  The better the quality of the players around a player, the better his chances of individual succes.  Hence, when Xavier Nady and Jason Bay departed, the offense fell apart.  The players that were hitting before them didn't have their protection in the lineup, and the guys that had batted after them had less guys on base.  I'll bet if Adam LaRoche batted in front of Pujols a whole season, LaRoche would easily hit 35 homeruns.

The toughest part of it is the best power hitters cost the most money and go to the high payroll teams.  Then the developing players on those teams have a better chance to reach their potential sooner with those stars around them.  If the Pirates can find one, true power hitter (like Ryan Howard), then players like Adam LaRoche would put up power hitter numbers too.  Power begets power.

@Allarmy - <The runs dropped post trade due to a very bad August--otherwise no significant drop" -- At the time of the trades,>

Why did the run production drop in August? Was it because of the trades, or was it because 25 of their 28 games were against the top teams in the league?

They played:

Cubs - 6 games

Brewers - 6 games

Mets - 5 games

DBacks - 3 games

Phillies - 3 games

Cardinals 2 games.

The other 3 games were against the Reds.

The August schedule was brutal and I really doubt Bay and Nady could have helped them do better in August.

boruboru27 ......welcome to the asylum

power begets power......all too true.....I think that ours will have to come from the draft, maybe Alvarez.