By Dejan Kovacevic | 11 a.m. Wednesday
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Q: Is it smart for the Pirates to be avoiding free agents and targeting prospects?
In honor of 'Moneyball' and its premise that teams like the A's (and Pirates) need to take advantage of the market: The value of top prospects has never been higher as teams see how cost-effective they are compared to veterans. Teams are hoarding them and won't part with them even for Johan Santana or Jason Bay, crossing off their top five in trade talks. How did the Twins not get the Mets' top prospect for the best pitcher in baseball? Very few good prospects are even available (unless the A's are trading them).
The value of free agents might never be lower. There is an unusually high number of good players on the market and economic gloom in the forecast. Teams are moving very slowly in signing players, and with the exception of the big-ticket guys, you would expect players to sign at lower than normal rates. This is why many teams didn't offer arbitration to guys like Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell. How many outfielders are on the market this year? It is a bad time to be a free agent, and teams will get them cheaper later.
Everybody was shocked when the A's started trading prospects for superstars such as Matt Holliday and targeting free agents such as Rafael Furcal. But they are once again playing the market, selling prospects high and buying free agents low (they offered less than $10 million per year to Furcal).
Since the Pirates have some money to spend, why not target two younger free agents, sign them for four years, and try to bring them in at a good value? And why target prospects when they are valued so high? They are once again on the wrong side of the market, buying prospects high and selling veterans like Bay and Jack Wilson low.
Ian Leyda of Zelienople
KOVACEVIC: Your argument is terrific, Ian, and it underscores, as you correctly point out, that the smartest thing low-spending teams can do is go for best value. Oakland looks at free agents and sees them as a smart investment, perhaps even smarter with longer-term deals. Meanwhile, the Pirates are banging their heads against the wall because no one will give up prospects.
Which leads me back, as so often happens, to the Jason Bay trade. Once that happens, given the state of the Pirates' system, the bridge is crossed. There is no going back, if only because the holes to fill now spread across the diamond. If only Xavier Nady had been dealt, then Andrew McCutchen could have eventually stepped in, and some pitching could have been added, maybe through the means you describe above.
And again, I repeat: Keeping Bay and the most of the rest of the current team would not have had to come at the expense of the other stuff the Pirates wanted to do, from Latin America to the draft to building up the system, so long as those remained funded properly.
What damage would have been wrought by fielding a truly competitive team the next couple years?
Seems that the Pirates' new management entered the process with a firm idea and stuck to it. And there is nothing wrong with that, intrinsically. In fact, some would call it commendable. But different circumstances call for reactions. Once management saw that the offense, chemistry and some other elements looked to be in place last summer, maybe there could have been an adjustment to the pre-ordained Bay-must-go plan. They could have capitalized on the kind of thinking that you describe, going for legitimate value through free agency and waiting until the cycle changes to try to pry away other team's top prospects.
In the interim, there might have been some competitive baseball played in Pittsburgh, and there is value in that, too: It would represent a tangible, real change in culture, something that would have a positive impact inside and outside the organization. The players would believe, as would the prospects coming up, as well as potential outsiders who might previously never have wanted to play for the Pirates. The public surely would get on board, too, and that would result in healthier attendance and other revenue streams.
But all of that, for reasons outlined at length in previous writings, was predicated on keeping Bay. Not because Bay singlehandedly would have carried the franchise. Obviously, that was not the case during his time here. Rather, it was because his trade set into irreversible motion the dismantling of the current roster and, with little depth immediately behind them, it probably will be a long time now until the team is competitive at the top level again.
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Q: DK, if John Grabow is considered a valuable left-handed pitcher, why do the Pirates not consider signing him long term instead of trying to trade him?
Ryan Coulson of Sumter, S.C.
KOVACEVIC: See above, Ryan. Once the Bay trade happens, pretty much everything else in that age bracket is moot.
From a baseball standpoint, Grabow almost surely will be more valuable to the Pirates than the prospect they receive in return. That is why it is commendable that, when they did not hear an offer they liked at the July deadline, they simply kept Grabow. It remains to be seen what happens with Grabow next, but I do know that the team has not approached him about a multiyear contract.
He will be a free agent after next season, and he might be one of those Type A or B guys, which means he could follow the Damaso Marte path in that his trade value will increase in that sense.
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Q: Dejan, have you heard about any Pirates planning on playing in the World Baseball Classic?
Leife Martin of Miami
KOVACEVIC: Too early for the preliminary rosters, Leife, and even Neal Huntington has not been formally informed of any. The only two locks that I can see are Dave Davidson for Canada and Mpho Ngoepe, the shortstop from South Africa. With Josh Hamilton saying this week he would not compete for the U.S., maybe that opens a door for Nate McLouth. Ramon Vazquez could play for Puerto Rico, Romulo Sanchez for Venezuela ... but all that is far from being known.
Posted
Dec 17 2008, 11:00 AM
by
Dejan Kovacevic