Draft update: Scheppers will be tough

The draft is NOT working and should be eliminated. Go back to how it used to be.

If the large market/moneyed teams want to spend big money to sign all the supposed great players --- fine. But I don't think that will happen.

It will once again put a high premium on good scouting/talent evaluation and it might bring about a reduction in these ridiculous, first-round contracts.

Many will bash Coonelly if Alvarez walks but I won't be one of them. The kind of money being discussed, for a kid, is insane. Especially a kid with a recent wrist injury.

If Alvarez wants to follow Aaron Crow to some watery independent league to make $15,000 a year, risk injury, and get sub-par instruction....Bye-bye,

I haven't heard anything about whther or not the Pirates signed Dale Gabriel.  Anyone have any info?

If all of these Boras guys fail to sign, will anyone notice he's finally losing his edge?  Last off season he got fired by Kenny Rogers, then A Rod went and negotiated his own contract with the Yankees because he was upset with how Boras handled things.  I think teams are finally learning how to deal with his tactics and calling his bluff.  His demands are usually ridiculous, and maybe teams are finally trying to reign him in.

Dejan,

Could you add something to this for the Bucs top 10 picks: Who's signed, if in High School, which college they're committed to, etc.  (etc = there's more I should ask for but can't think of it right now. )

diehard - I think Boras took a huge hit with the ARod negotiations last year.  He can't afford to not get Alvarez signed.  Or, really, any of his first round picks.

You can even look at the neighborhood Alvarez is from - same as A Rod and Manny?  How deep does Boras have his talons in that place?  And the fiasco manny created to get out of Boston - it's a shame MLB decided not to investigate.  For all intents and purposes Manny was throwing games by not trying to make plays so his team could win.  And Boras (allegedly) had to try to get Boston to promise not to pick up Manny's option for next year so he could become a free agent.  And in return, Manny would go all out the rest of the season.  That was waaaaay over the top.

It's still way early, but Matt Hague was a steal. If Alvarez & Scheppers get signed, it looks like the Pirates will have broken a record for high spending. How often to you hear that?

If Boras and Alvarez relent at the last minute like we all expect them to, I think it will really begin to make young prospects wonder if Boras has the juice he claims to have.  I'd be willing to guess that Alvarez signs for somewhere around Beckham's 6.15 million dollar bonus, only it may not be backloaded.  Now, if Alvarez had been willing to sign for that money back in June, the Pirates probably would have fallen all over themselves to sign him then and get him in the minors and he could have been ready to play in the bigs as early as maybe All-Star Break next season.  I think (or maybe more accurately I hope) young players who are not very far from being ML- ready will begin to see that Boras has almost as much negative impact (in making them wait until mid-August to sign and hurting their arrival time in the bigs) as he does positive impact, because it seems more and more teams are standing up to him, and I think that will be the case with the Pirates, just like it was last season with the Orioles-Wieters discussions and the Royals-Moustakas discussions, both of which ended up being W's for the teams instead of Boras.

"Many will bash Coonelly if Alvarez walks but I won't be one of them. The kind of money being discussed, for a kid, is insane."

It's a nice theory to just walk away if it's too much money for a "kid." But if you really want to contend you have to do it. All the other teams are. Boras isn't breaking any rules. Baseball lets this happen. Until a new way is implemented the Pirates have to play ball. And it's about time they do. Would you rather have this year's version of Danny Moskos, throw $2 million at him and pray that he ends up in the Pirates bullpen one day? That's the Pirates' old way of doing things. How many first-rounders the Pirates have drafted in the last x years (fill in the blank) are on the the 25-man roster? Not even just contributing, but on the roster. If I am not mistaken, just one: Paul Maholm (even the Pirates get lucky sometimes). The old way of drafting wasn't working and so now the new regime is in charge. Let's give them a chance. Now, five years from now and it still isn't working, then we can complain about the money wasted. All that being said, if the Pirates don't sign Alvarez tonight I might be looking for a new team to root for.

The slot amount for Moustakas was $3.5M and he got $4M.  The slot for Wieters was $2.25M and he got $6M, which set a record for a straight bonus.  I'm not sure how these amounts were wins for the teams.  They only look good for the teams in comparison to Boras' original demands, which he had no chance of getting.  He's rapidly driving up the going rate for a high-pofile first-rounder.  Don't confuse his tactics with his results.

FinerKiner - Don't forget about Sean Burnett....  Contributing, but not in the role expected of a first round pick....

Dejan - This is great information as always. Thanks!

I agree with the gunner. For whatever reason the baseball draft is a total crap shoot. For as many stars that have come out of the first round of the draft, there have been much more busts, not only for PBC but for other teams as well.

What's to say 5 years from now that Alvarez has a career on par with Jeff King, will that be enough to live up to the hype?

I am not surprised, but it is still upsetting that the baseball owners have allowed this situation to occur.

FinerKiner:  Two  - Sean Burnett.  But, you're right.  

ManOSteel - when Alvarez signs some time tonight arter the game ends, I wouldn't call it relenting, I'd call it taking the best offer.  If he's going to get the same X million a week ago that he'll get tonight, there was no point in signing a week ago.  By holding out, he holds that sliver of hope that he'll get something above X.  

diehard:  While Manny is a current Boras client, he didn't sign his current contract w/ Boras.  

Here is a list of the Pirates '08 draft from Baseball America.  Players in bold have signed.  

www.baseballamerica.com/.../2008xteam.php

Paying Grossman $1M to sign further supports DK's research that the money is there..

I don't think you can really look at the slot amount for the picks, as more often then not the first round picks exceed the slot, regardless of whether or not Boras is involved.  Also, Wieters was far and away the best pick in that draft, and he looks he may be one of the best prospects in years, so to slot him as the 5th best player in that draft was absurd.  What I was referring to when I called those negotiations W's for the teams instead of Boras was 1) Comparing to other years, like when Teixeira got his absurd deal or when JD Drew actually refused to sign and went back into the draft. There are numerous other examples as well.  And 2)The actual Boras demands, 3 or 4 years ago, may have actually been met, as evidenced by the aforementioned scenarios, because if not, teams truly thought he would talk his clients out of signing.  Last year, we saw not 1 but 2 teams call Boras' bluff and both picks signed.  To me that's a W, especially for the Orioles, who got one of the best prospects to come through the draft in several years for 6 million, which is roughly what Tim Beckham got this year, and I doubt anyone considers him on the same level as Wieters.

Yes, sorry, forgot about Sean. He's been doing better lately.

Eventually Boras may push draftee signing bonuses to the point where top-of-the-first-round picks will expect so much money that signing them actually will become too risky or expensive for most teams.

Why give any pitcher more than $10M for signing when that pitcher faces a high probability of injuring his arm or shoulder? Why even draft a pitcher in the first round given the injury risks?

Actually, most first round picks sign for slot money.  Last year only six out of thirty signed for amounts that were more than slightly above slot.

Steve Z:  The Pirates sure have learned that one very well, haven't they.

OTOH, there are many pitchers drafted in the first round who've done very well, and have not suffered arm troubles.

Let's see what David Price does!

I wouldn't say that all of the Boras clients are superstars. I am not sure if this has come up before, but Bobby Hill was advised by Boras not to accept his contract offer in 1999.

That is some good scouting Scott. But hey we all miss some...Just hope you are right about this guy Scott.

Ok, whats the point of the slot?  If MLB wants teams to sign these picks at a certain price, make it freakin mandatory!  Didnt the NBA do something along those lines with their rookies?  This is getting out of control and something needs to be done.  

If frank and boys dont pay this guy because Boras wants way too much for him, screw him!  The Pirates need to get this guy signed, but not at the expense of EVERYBODY.  I will be disapointed if not signed, but they dont need to be rediculous about it.

MLB can't make slot amounts madatory without negotiating it with the union.  It's their own fault.  When MLB insisted on draft pick compensation for free agents, the draft became a mandatory subject of bargaining.  Otherwise, it wouldn't have been because the MLBPA doesn't represent amateur athletes.  Now MLB can't get mandatory slotting past the union.  The best thing to do would be to drop draft pick compensation and try to get all reference to the draft out of the labor agreement.  The comp system is a bad idea that's had the opposite effect of what was intended, since it mostly helps the more affluent teams.

The whole systems sounds rediculous.  Whats the point really?  I think it was a way for MLB to make it sound like they are concerned with the over-inflation of bonuses to the players, and the MLBPA getting away with something.  

WTM ... I agree

I can't see how how the NFL and more so the MLB won't go to a rookie salary system similar to the NBA/NHL in the near future.

I can't see the player's association and the veteran players really liking big money going to unproven rookies.

I'm just curious though, what's the average money spent on scouts and development coaches of MLB teams, and how Pittsburgh ranks.

With all the money we'll be saving by rebuilding the next few years, I would love seeing the Buccos being in the top 5 of scouts total salary.

Let's say both get signed tonight (Alvarez and Scheppers)...if it happens I think we all need to look at what a turnaround this organization has gone through with Frank and Neal in control...in only their first year. Even if just one of the top two signs, we are still on a path that we have not even been close to being on in the past 15 years.

I agree with you on that too, but I'm pretty sure they would be more inclined to be the LOWER 5 than the top 5.  I like the way things are going and they obviously saw something in Grossman to give him a mil, so like someone else said, they have the money, but I'm just as leary of the scouts as I am the new management, until we see some sort of results.  And i just dont mean by the record.

SRC22-Cant argue that buddy! they took possibly the best player in the draft, or atleast, in my opinion, the #1 need in position players and a pitcher who would've been in the first round.  They sign them both, my hats off to them.  I do think Franky knows what he's doing, he'll lead neal in the right direction......I hope.

"I can't see the player's association and the veteran players really liking big money going to unproven rookies."

They don't.  In fact, a lot of veteran players resent it.  They figure that should be their money.  But the union is philosophically opposed to artifical restraints on pay.  If MLB really tried, I bet they could get it done, but they'd have to give up draft pick compensation and they're so obsessed with keeping free agent salaries down that they seem to have trouble focusing on other things.

phillyjake - That's part of my point.  Boras stood to gain nothing from Manny's option being picked up.  But if it was declined in advance, Manny does what he's doing - Boras gets his payday.

I hate to be positive on Boras, but his methods of working with his players are beyond what most clubs do.  He's got his guys analyzed, trained, studied, and focused with an amazing organization.  Unfortunately, it also is all done for the sake of the player (yes, that is Boras' job), but usually with no regrad for the team.

It's amazes me that I could have so much animosity towards a person I've never even met, but I really do hate Scott Boras.

I just can not see Pedro's dad waking up on Saturday and still being a Jitney Cab Driver.  Beyond that, he has little room for negociation.  Jitney Driving is a dangerous profession and I for one can not see Pedro allowing his dad to do this one more year than he had to.  He will sign.  The Alvarez family will soon move from the apartment building where they have lived all Pedro's life and will buy a house where his family can finally enjoy a truely better life style.  Oh it may be 11:59 and forty five seconds when he does sign, but sign he will.

I watched the vid of Pedro that was posted here. So yeah, yeah, college ball, highlight reel - but lordy what a sweet swing. Unless my batteries are going, I heard an announcer yell "Gone!" once, the instant the bat hit the ball. Not even having to look first what the trajectory was, just by the sound, he knew. And I said to my monitor, "We have to sign this guy." I didn't think Bonds or Parker. This kid had the effortless power of Stargell. I could see Willie again, just flick the bat and the ball would go upper deck at 3RS. When Pedro grows up all the way - in his prime years - he's potentially a 50+ kid without the steroids. Lordy, what a draw! Who wouldn't go to a game, just to see if he was going to launch another one that would make Mantle and Ruth proud? When you consider that Ralph Kiner still holds the record for Bucco homers in a year (54) and that he set it over 50 years ago, wouldn't you love to have national attention looking at OUR big bat instead of a Yank, a Card, a Giant for once? I hate to be a profligate fool (which is why I'm not sitting at NH's desk), but I'd hock PNC Park for that. Sign that boy. Give him a Rolls and a yacht and a bevy of dancing girls and what the heck, throw in the deed to Wyoming while you're at it, but sign him!

Part of me thinks they should drop $2M on Scheppers and take the chance...another part thinks there is too much uncertainty with that injury...

Of course there is the part of me that thinks that while it is the kind of aggressive move the org needs to make, wasnt there a better pick in the 2nd round to be had without the issue?  

I just can't bring myself to condemn the Pirates for sinking a few bucs into this team.  Bottom line, we want to see the PBC get better. Whatever it takes to do that I am for it.

There's simply no way eliminating the draft is going to help the Bucs.  A totally free market in the minors would result in the same thing that happens in the majors...  The big market teams would just outspend everyone and suck up all the elite talent.  No player selected in the first 4 or 5 rounds would end up in the Pirate organization, and while I know successes come out of every round, players get picked there for a reason.

The answer is to fix the draft by making slot recommedations mandatory, or allocating a money pool to each team based on the number and position of their draft picks...  You know, like the sports that care about competitive balance do.  As mentioned by others, the MLBPA is opposed to anything that restricts the open market in any way, including a minimum salary cap for teams like the Bucs that appear to be pocketing millions from revenue sharing yet not fielding a competitive team.  So the draft won't get fixed, baseball won't get fixed, and we'll likely never see a meaningful-to-the-home-team August baseball game at PNC Park.

After hearing that Scheppers still has lingering arm issues, I dont have a problem if they offer the slot....Kind of ballsy for his reps to ask for that much over slot, knowing he is still recovering...

On the other hand though, is this the kind of player you need when you have an organization so lacking in talent that it is worth the risk to give him top-10 money and in two years if he is out of baseball from arm problems, at least FC and NH knew they gave it a shot..Plus, the money is there...To me, I back track from the paragraph above and want to say I think they should give him above-slot money as this team needs as many quality players in the fold that they can get....

As much as I like Scheppers potential, being damaged goods scares me a bit. That said, I'm sure he has seen how much Grossman received and believes he is worth more than him. Let's hope the PBC & Scheppers meet somewhere in the middle. This club needs some high end pitching talent in it's farm system.

@Mick  - There may have been another pick in the second round who didn't have a health issue, but nobody else left at that point had originally projected to be a top 10 pick.  Yes it was risky to take Scheppers because of the injury, but this is a kid with a fastball ranging from 92-95 mph that many scouts say projects as a front end of the rotation kind of guy.  I highly doubt you could say that about anybody else left at that point.

I'd say Scheppers has a bit of gamble in him if he chooses to go back to school. The Pirates would have a stronger motive to protect Scheppers' body than his idiot coach would.

He ought to consider this fellow's story:

en.wikipedia.org/.../Matt_Harrington

If the PBC isn't sure about Scheppers' health and next year's draft is deep in pitching as I've heard elsewhere, then the comp pick next year might be a better option than spending big bucks on a guy who might never pan out due to injury. Besides, if pitching is deep next year, Scheppers is taking a big chance hoping for a bigger payday next year, and perhaps NH/FC ought to point this out to him.

I wonder what the numbers are with Scheppers.  I think he's going to take the money in the end.  He really doesn't know what his shoulder is.  He risks finding out it's not good, and doesn't get drafted next year.

I'm guessing he signs for 1.5 mill.

@ RILEZ

Fair point on the talent level available at that slot...

If they dropped $1M on Grossman, I gotta think that Scheppers is worth a $2M flyer...even if Scheppers flames out, that price is still less than the assorted 1 year rentals of the DL era...

Scheppers has to be sweating the prospect of turning down a good offer from the Pirates (including a sizeable signing bonus, i.e., guaranteed money) to return to college and HOPE that his shoulder is fine.  Even then, will he hurt his draft prospects if his return is dynamite?  Then he'd have to think about the lost use of that $1.5M or so as he lives off his family's dime for the next year of school.

I'm torn on whether I want to see the Buccos sign high-school pitcher Quinton Miller.  He could have gone MUCH higher had he not committed to college and has a nice high ceiling, but my alma mater could sure use his talent over the next three years that he'd be in Chapel Hill.

Is sitting out a year worth a possible million dollars to Scheppers?  One million in the hand vs. $2 million in the bush if things go well for him.  If the Bucs have offered him a million or more I think he'll sign tonight.  If he doesn't the Bucs took a good gamble.

u guys are dropping coin on guys who havent proven a thing but in the same breath dont wnat to spend money for free agents--wt.....

also-is that high school kid really worth 1 mill to sign? by overpaying him you're letting ur #1 and #2 ull over pay....negotiating 101

they bucs are going to overpay-- i cn feel it--and then more ammo to let some of the vets-- wilson, doug m, grabow--go in the winter

Steve.z: Yikes! Thanks for the link

I agree that he'd be a real gambler to hang in there....or, well, he's young & probably thinks that his arm will last forever.

Just Curious.

How many of you would be ok with us spending 7 mil to sign Alvarez?

Here's a good article regarding the Royals' fourth-round pick, Tim Melville, who was a first-round talent but slipped due to questions of signability since he was another Tar Heel pledge.  He ultimately signed for $1.25M, akin to a late first-round choice:

www.kansascity.com/.../749897.html

I would be. (Presuming his physical checks out).

steve z. -- thanks for the link, really a sad situation for Harrington.

This proves an old saying true: A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.

Not sure about Scheppers.  Haven't we had our fill with injured pitchers?  

BenderHeel - Couldn't agree more regarding Quinton Miller.  A little research shows he was one of the top High School pitching prospects in the draft and we pluck him in round 20! NH took the chance in drafting him and he is exactly the kiind of kid you need to over pay for to get into the minors.  Lord knows we need some pitching depth.  These picks are where we can measure if ownership/management are serious.

Cave:  7 Mil seems good to me.

And, if Alvarez turns that down, he's a fool.

Cave:  I'd pay it, and phillyjake is right, Alvarez would be crazy to turn it down.  If we sign him, Scheppers could fall by the wayside, and I wouldn't feel so bad.

If PBC does sign Alvarez, is that enough to convince everyone that this regime is serious?

$7 million for Alvarez? I'd be all for it, no doubt. We're talking about a guy who could absolutely kill the ball at PNC with that short RF porch. This is the EXACT type of guy the Pirates need in the middle of their lineup, a true prodigeous HR threat from the left side of the plate.

As for Scheppers, if he's looking for top 10 money, I would say goodbye. If he were healthy, I'd say he was worth it, but with him still not pitching 100%, $2 million is just too much to pay for someone with that much uncertainty. And don't even get me started about what would happen if this team signed Scheppers for $2 mil and let Alvarez walk. At this point, I'd offer a little over $1 million to Scheppers and if he won't bite, take that money and add that to the last minute Alvarez push.

Given the questions regarding his health and production this past year, Alvarez should be absolutely thrilled to get anything over $5M in guaranteed signing bonus money.  I don't know if I would want to go over what Weiters got last year if I was NH.  But, on the other hand, NH made his bed when he chose to draft Alvarez and his "advisor."

I think the Pirates backed themselves into a corner somewhat when they overpaid for Grossman.  Of course Scheppers is going to want top 10 money ($2 million) when a kid in the 6th round (who is noted as a "gritty overachiever", which doesn't exactly have can't miss written all over it) signs for $1 million.  

And I'm sick of hearing agents/blogs/publications throwing out the line of "he would have been a first round or top 10 pick except for .....".  If you listen to these guys, there should have been 80 guys taken in the first round.  

Don't get me wrong, I want the Pirates to sign every last one of their picks if possible.  But if Scheppers and his representatives turn down a 7 figure signing bonus when there are unanswered questions about his shoulder, they're fools.  

Harrington's story should be required reading for every 1st round pick in the draft.

I hope Alvarez and his family were smart enought to research this matter from every angle instead of relying exclusively on Boras' advise. I mean to turn down even $5 million guaranteed would seem to be too much of a risk for this young man, even if there is only a 5 or 10% chance he will not earn more by going back to school and entering next years draft.  

Bender Heel

Do we put you in the "no" column?

Bender--

Demaro on the radio said last night that they were def. going to sign Quinton Miller.

I just started following baseball after I found recreation softball to be so much fun.  a few questions:

What happens to a late round pick if not signed by deadline, do we lose him forever?  Isn't this kind of stupid?  You lose rights to a draftee permanently if not signed in 2 months after draft.  In hockey for example, that guy goes back to Juniors or Europe, or college.  

I heard so much negativity regarding Danny Moskos, why is he so hated?  I remember the idiot (littlefield) drafted him high, I mean, isn't there a reason behind drafting Moskos, Bullington, etc?  Other teams are able to draft guys like Lincecum, Kershaw, Sherzer, Cain with much lower picks in round 1, why did we end up with Bullington?  Is Moskos a waste at this point?  

I personally think Alvarez will sign for sure, by the way.

Cave - I'm down for $7 million ... and I'd go for the perks Buc Fever was talking about, too!

"Sign that boy. Give him a Rolls and a yacht and a bevy of dancing girls and what the heck, throw in the deed to Wyoming while you're at it, but sign him!"

Best quote of the week from Buc Fever!

I think they should just forget about Scheppers if he's demanding a load of money while still hurt. Get that compensation pick for next year and see if they can get some uninjured pitchers in the 2nd round.

Baywatch,

Well, I guess now we're even from the other day...because I wasn't the one that said that! :) That was Cisco Kid...

I guess that means I lose my "Post of the Week". Booooo

But, they just have to sign Alvarez...period.

As Batman once said: "At some point, you've gotta write the check"