Pirates still talking Bay deal; Paulino involved?

DK: Have you been able to confirm Ken Rosenthal's statements that Tucker and Stanton will not be a part of any deal with the Marlins/Soxl?  I would think the PBC would have to have one of these two (along with Hermidia) in order to come out "ahead" on this.

Wow Dejan, your ability to now read our minds is scary.  Thanks for answering my question as I was typing it.

did anyone see this?  wtf....

8:39am: SI.com's Jon Heyman says the Mets have "kicked around" the idea of acquiring Ian Snell from the Pirates and using him in relief for the rest of the year.  Snell is signed through 2010 with club options for '11 and '12.  It's tough to see the Bucs moving him, even in an off year.

Dejan, what have you heard about what Jon Heyman from SI is reporting: that the Mets are interested in Ian Snell?  Sounds rather "rumorish" (lol) to me.

sportsillustrated.cnn.com/.../index.html

ron_d - great minds think alike...

DK, does anyone ever tell you that you are awesome for doing this blog?

Going to be a long day of watching baseball blogs...

my enthusiasm for the Bay/Manny is now being tempered - trades like this that are publicized beforehand rarely get made....Remember that Hossa guy - he wasnt mentioned coming to Pgh and then boom, the trade was amde at 2:59 PM...............

way he is throwing...and the fact pbc way oeverpaid him...might be tempting if we can get a prospect or 2--but who in their right mind would give anythig for him?...then again we did get nady from them--but perez had higher value

The momentum that built throughout Wednesday night that Manny Ramirez could be dealt to the Marlins continued into Thursday morning. Talks are continuing, according to a source early Thursday, and indications are a deal could in fact be reached by the 4 p.m. ET non-waiver deadline.

The way the Marlins typically operate on trades, until paper work is exchanged, in their eyes there is no firm deal. So they don't really recognized "done deal" until it actually is signed off by all parties.

Since this is a three-team trade, and there are Minor League prospects involved and large sums of money changing hands, the deal is complicated. Still, the primary pieces of the deal, Manny to the Marlins, Jeremy Hermida to the Pirates and Jason Bay to the Red Sox, are in place. There is speculation that Florida pitching prospect Ryan Tucker, a 21-year-old with a 95 mph fastball, could be included. Another prospect the Marlins may have to surrender is 19-year-old outfielder Mike Stanton, the team's second round pick in 2007. Stanton is an imposing athlete with tremendous power potential.

-- Joe Frisaro

Posted on July 31, 2008 at 9:53 AM

One thing to consider is that the Rays may want this deal to go through.  Think about it, their chances to win the division undoubtedly improve if Manny leaves for Florida (even with Bay as his replacement).  I want the Bucs to make a deal, but if I'm Rays management I might be thinking that the Sox-Marlins-Bucs deal could be really good for the Rays.  No wonder they are looking elsewhere (supposedly at Dunn).

I'm a bit weary about this 3-way deal. It seems a bit complex and with the solid track records of Bos/Fla, I'd hate to get short-changed on one of our best trade chips in years. I still hope the Rays up the ante and pull the deal if their way...anyone else?

i dont like trading bay..but if you do-- tell both teams ur not doing a 3 way-- they both can offer the best they can for a straight one way with the bucs-- leverage one against the other--why should the bucs be the be bop boy in this trade-- and dont package 2 pirate players-- do not do this-we can get more if we decide to dump grabow and/or wilson

i still say they will trade doug m

Hey!  My user name has been stolen.  I am the TRUE Ghost, and I want the 3 way to go down.  If it does, and Stanton and Tucker are involved, combined with Tabata and the signing of Alvarez and others in this draft class, then our farm system has been remedied in a rather short period of time.  

Reveal your true identity, fake ghost of Chico Lind!

Open question.  Jason Bay will give the Red Sox a better chance to win than Manny Ramirez?  If that is the case then the Rays would be pushed harder to stop this deal.  Personally, if i were the Rays I would be glad Manny is gone and Bay is there.

I would think that the Rays would absolutely want to block this 3-way trade from happening.  Think of it this way:

-They are finally in contention, and Bay/Grabow could completely put them over the top

-If the minor league pieces are that vital to the organization, wouldn't they already be up?  Is there not already talent blocking their path?

-This is a chance not only to hurt the Sox (preventing them from getting Bay), but to hurt the Yankees (getting a better Pit outfielder), AND hurt the Marlins (possibliy prevent Manny from going to FLA), who have been the "Big Fish" in the state of Florida since the rays' inception.

I would rather keep Bay, Grabow, and Wilson for that matter, but, if the Bucco's could come away with (from Tampa) a starting SS to replace Wilson (Brignac), a front-line starter (Hellickson?), and add to the minor league system (the other prospects), I think that would go a long way to getting us in the right position for late 09/2010,which it seems is what NH wants to do anyways.  

Just noticed something I thought might be noteworthy:

Upon checking the stats for Ryan Tucker, I see that he was picked 34th overall, meaning he was one of those "sandwich" picks between the first and second rounds for losing players. This is exactly the reason that I'm not thrilled about Marte being traded. Those two draft picks could have been potential impact players like Tucker, instead of borderline pitching prospects.

Gammons is saying that the Marlins have acquired Arthur Rhodes. I guess they wouldn't need Grabow anymore.

To be honest, I don't see why we're all that interested in Hermida. Outfield seems to be our only position of depth, with a sickening lack of depth at middle infield and catcher. That's why the Rays trade makes more sense to me than the Sox/Marlins deal. With guys like McLouth, McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata (MAYBE Duffy), I just don't see an immediate need for another outfielder when we are so thin at other positions. We have no legit first baseman in the minors, echo that for Catcher and SS (although, we did draft two highly regarded SS prospects this year, but those guys are probably 4-5 years off).

So, unless a SS is acquired through trade, does that mean we're sticking with Jack Wilson for the foreseeable future? My thinking is that Jack is still an elite defender at SS and he could be a solid contributor on a contender. He's making around $8 million/year now, but I think we could probably resign him for less than that after his current deal expires. If we could get Jack signed for $6, maybe $7 million/year, I'd be willing to commit to him long term. What are everyone elses thoughts on maybe keeping Jack and trying to sign him for another 3-4 years?

Trading Bay at this time may be a good move for the Bucs, but I find it hard to believe that Manny will make good on his "talk".  Boston may want to get some return on Manny, but he is a 5/10 guy and it is unlikely that the Marlins would not exercise his option. This would put Manny in exactly the same situation he is in now. He wants OUT of the contract and he is more likely to get out at the end of the season with Boston not likely to exercise that option - making Manny a free agent. Without his signature the deal is dead.

Also, Tampa will probably wait until the last minute because they are in a win win situation. Either Manny leaves Boston, or they get Bay for scraps - unless NH holds firm on his asking price.

Nothing is dead just because the trade deadline passes anyway as baseball teams tend to not interfere with trade deals - so NH should not feel pressured to consumate anything unless the deal is right for our club. Here's hoping he stays firm. The "worst" thing holding off does is keep Bay in Pittsburgh and most fans don't see that as a bad move anyway. Good Luck NH.

*crosses fingers, toes and eyes*

C'mon c'mon c'mon, baby needs a new pair of shoes ...

Does anyone think that the rumored three way deal is a ploy by Boston to get the Rays to think that they will not be getting Bay?

Buc Fever: Agree on the picks that would have come with Marte.  I know they got more immediate help with the AAA guys they got from NYY, but I would have rather had a higher upside guy that would take longer to reach.  

The picks should have drove Marte's price up, and they should have kept him and kept the picks or dealt him in a solo package without Nady.  MLB won't let teams deal picks, but this is as close as you can get to dealing picks.  

Hold out for Price!  

(A fan can dream, can't he?)

@buc fever:

but those borderline pitching prospects could be studs... just wait a year before talking any more smack on that nady marte trade.

Besides from what Ive been reading the draft next year is supposed to be weaker than this year

keep wilson around...unless jackie hernandez or gene alley can still play

if we trade all these guys this team will make the lloyd "angry man" mcclendon era look like the ny yankees

Maz: I doubt it.  I think they really want Manny out of there and they are terrified that he will poison the clubhouse.  Did you see that footage of his baserunning the other night?  And that was a game that had a no hitter underway?  

ChicoLindsGhost - did not realize that I had stolen a name.  I'm new to the site and will defer to your seniority.  My bad.  Does anyone have a problem with "Dale Berra's Nose"?

Dejan,

With continued reference to these "compensation picks" that you have mentioned several times for Marte - what are the conditions that determine those picks? What I am asking is, were the picks absolutely guaranteed to be end of first round selections? Could that have changed by the end of the year based on Marte's performance?

We never really heard how those picks are defined other than "type A" free agents - what defines this type A and can a Type A drop to Type B, etc?

Mr Koonce,

I've heard the opposite in regards to next years draft class.  The context I heard it mentioned in was that Alvarez is no gaurantee to go as high as he did this year because there is more talent expected next year.  All the more reason to keep the picks.

Most scouts have projected Karstens or Ohlendorf as filler, back end rotation guys or middle relievers.  So I doubt that they change uniforms and suddenly become 'studs'.

soon to be ex- chico lind ghost

add white to that name and ur dead on

Chico,

Yep, that's my point. I understand that for every Joba Chamberlain or Ryan Tucker, there's probably 10 that fall flat on their face, but the point is that you can get some true impact talent with those sandwich picks. I really like the fact that we got Tabata, but the three pitchers are just uninspiring to me. I would have done a Nady for Tabata & one of those pitchers and kept Marte for the sandwich picks. Infusing all this years draft talent (if they actually sign any of the good ones, which still remains to be seen!) along with having 4 picks in the first 2 rounds next year would have really given us a very strong farm system. Yes, it would have been 4-5 years off, but it would have been a very strong system. Then who knows, maybe WE could have finally been the ones shipping away prospects from our heralded farm system to...gasp...ADD to our ML roster!

The only thing about the picks we would get for Marte, is that we would only get them if he was signed before Spring Training.  There is no guarentee that would have happened as teams may have not felt like giving up the required pick to get him (the pirates would get one pick from the team and a sandwich pick).   If we let him walk without trading him and he goes unsigned during the period where we get compensation, then we just let him walk for nothing.

This, along with Nady being a FA after next season and playing way over his head this year, took away from NH's leverage and played into the return we got.

Setting aside nebulous concepts like playoff experience and clubhouse presence, it's not at all clear that Manny helps the Sox more than Bay. I'm not necessarily saying that Bay is a better player - clearly not over his career - but if you look at last year and then this year to date, Bay for Manny looks an awful lot like an offensive wash* and a defensive upgrade.

Plus, of course, Manny's gone after this year and Bay isn't, but that doesn't affect the Rays' response wrt 2008 (although, do they have anyone they expect to equal Bay in the OF for 2009 either?).

* For instance, if you neutralize stats, Bay creates 124 runs to Manny's 107; OPS+ is 135 to 140, in Manny's favor - pretty much a wash.

DK,

With Rhodes going to the Fish, does this mean Grabow would be out and our return less?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

DK,

With Rhodes going to the Fish, does this mean Grabow would be out and our return less?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/