1. Johan Santana - Over the span of the last five years, no one has been better on the mound than Johan Santana. When the Mets acquired him in the off season last year, they figured it was the missing piece to get them back into the World Series. He wasn't, but it was not because of him. Santana went 8-0 after the all star break with a 2.17 ERA and a 92 K / 28 BB ratio. Santana's strong finish suggests he's comfortable with his new team and will be just as effective in the NL as he was in the AL. A lot of people may pick Lincecum ahead of Santana, but with Johan you know you're getting consistent greatness.
(Photo by Jeff Roberson / AP)
2. Tim Lincecum - Coming into just his third season, second full, Lincecum is considered by many to be the best. He led the league is strikeouts last year with 265 and won the Cy Young. One concern with him is that he is still pretty young and his durability is in question. Plus, he plays for the Giants which hurts his chances for wins, although he did finish 18-5 last year. Just imagine how well he would have done on a good team.
3. Brandon Webb - Probably the best sinker ball pitcher in the game today, Webb has been a very good and consistent ace for the Diamondbacks. Webb's wins have increased every year since 2005 and last year he finished with 22. I think most owners would just be happy with another 20 game win season and there's little doubt he'll do it. He's a great, young, durable pitcher that will be in the top 5 for pitcher rankings for years to come.
4. Jake Peavy - Coming off a 19-6 season in 2007, Peavy dropped to 10-11 in 2008. If this is scares you, it shouldn't. Peavy hasn't really lost anything, but the Padres have. The team is self destructing and throughout the off season the Padres tried to do Peavy and his owners a favor by moving him to a more competitive team, but it didn't happen. I don't for see Peavy staying with San Diego all season, so don't let his lack of wins scare you off. He's a great strikeout pitcher with a pretty good ERA.
5. Cole Hamels - It should be noted that each year since 2006, Hamels numbers have just gotten better and better and as a result helped bring a world championship to the city of Philadelphia. If you can do that, you must be doing something right. Hamels is a dangerous left handed strikeout pitcher that has a great lineup to get him a lot of run support. A 20 win, 200 K season is almost a given for this young ace.
6. Roy Halladay - The pitcher known as "Doc" has only won the Cy Young once despite having the best pitching numbers in the AL since 2002. Playing for a bad team in a division with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, Halladay still picked up 20 wins, struck out over 200 batters (206) and finished with an ERA under 3.00 (2.78). Its a shame his talents are going to waste for the Blue Jays, but fantasy owners already have him in the Hall of Fame.
7. Rich Harden - Since breaking into the league in 2003, Harden has been a member of my fantasy team (Xtreme Machine) every year since. Lots of good, some bads and a lot of moving him to the DL. Harden throws everything. He has a great heater, a great slider, but he also has a fantastic change up, making him very difficult to hit. He's the best pitcher in baseball... when he's healthy and speaking from experience that's not very often. I hate to draft or not draft someone based on a history of injuries, but when it comes to pitchers and arm problems its going to re-occur. Even knowing he'll probably he injured again, I can't pass up the spectacular numbers he'll produce while he's healthy.
8. C.C. Sabathia - The 2007 AL Cy Young award winner was struggling for the Indians last year before getting traded to the Brewers and helping them get into the playoffs. Sabathia was pretty much unhittable in the NL, but now he's headed back to the AL where he was getting knocked around pretty well. Owners should expect to see high strikeout numbers and a lot of wins playing for the Yankees, but I don't like the fact that he's back in the AL or that he's a $161 million pitcher playing for the most over analyzed team in baseball.
(Photo by Getty Images)
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka - After all the hype around Dice K leading into the 2007 season, I expected a new pitching phenom. I accidentally drafted him in the second round (stupid auto picker) and the phenomenon that was Daisuke Matsuzaka made me want to scream and not for joy. He finished with over 200 K's, but was 15-12 and had an 4.40 ERA. Totally soured on him, I completely avoided him in last year's draft and he put together a much better performance. He's strikeout numbers were way down, but he finished 18-3 and finished with a 2.90 ERA. This year, we'll figure out which Dice K is the real one.
10. Erik Bedard - Coming off a bad season and off season shoulder surgery, you wouldn't think Bedard would be in anyone's top ten. Okay, so he has a bad year. I'm willing to give him a free pass. His shoulder is strong again and he's been looking good in spring training. Plus, let's not forget all of the years of high strikeouts and relatively low ERA's before last year. Bedard is a good strikeout pitcher playing in a pitcher friendly park, that's usually a recipe for good results.
11. Dan Haren - I was never really high on Haren in Oakland and didn't think much of his move to Arizona, but he ended up with some pretty solid numbers when it was all said and done (16 wins, 206 K's). He ended up being the best number two starter in baseball, but it should be noted that despite finishing with an 8-3 record after the All Star Break, his ERA ballooned to 4.18.
12. Edinson Volquez - Volquez had a very impressive rookie season for the Reds striking out over 200 batters and compiling a 17-6 record. A lot of people are going to stay away from him remembering that he had a horrendous second half where his ERA jumped to 4.60, but let's not forget, this kid was in his first full season in the majors. He wasn't used to playing in that many games. This year should be a different story and we should see more performances from him like we did in the first half.
13. Cliff Lee - The biggest surprise in the pitching ranks last season was Lee's rise to glory. After finishing with an ERA over 6.00 in 2007, Lee came back in 2008 and won the Cy Young. Lee has never really been that good in the past and this looks and smells a fluke to me, but I suppose there is a chance he just learned something new and it could be the start of something big. But I doubt it.
14. Chad Billingsley - The 24 year old power pitcher finally got a chance at the big league level and made the most of it with 201 K's and a 16 wins. I expect Billingsley's numbers to only get better and he should be in the top ten after this season.
15. Josh Beckett - He's a great strikeout pitcher, on a very good Red Sox team, but I'm worried about the history of arm injuries he's gone through is starting to catch up with him. After having a stellar 2007, Beckett struggled in 2008 arms problems that bothered him all season. If he doesn't have to battle injuries, he's one of the best out there and should be strong early on, but he's a risk if you're counting on him to produce all season for you. He might be a great player to draft and trade after the first couple months while his value is really high.
16. Roy Oswalt - Taking a bit of a tumble down the rankings is Oswalt. He's been consistently good for a number of years, piling up good strikeout numbers and winning a lot of games, but he appears to be slowing down a bit. His un-Oswalt like performance last year though could be the product of him battling several injuries as well. As long as you're not drafting Oswalt to be your ace, he'll be fine for you staff.
17. A.J. Burnett - He's not a great ERA pitcher, but he sure can strikeout batters as good as, if not better than, anyone else in the league. Burnett led the AL in K's last year and won 18 games. Now playing for the Yankees, he should easily be able to duplicate those kind of numbers, although his ERA will still probably be pretty high.
18. Felix Hernandez - There a lot to like about the young Venezuelan pitcher, but one thing you can't like, if you owned him in the past few seasons, are his numbers. Despite having a great command of all different types of pitches, Hernandez has struggled. At times he's spectacular, then other times he's a disaster. If he could get a pitching coach that knows what he's doing, this kid would easily be a top 5 pitcher. For now, you're just going to have to take a chance on him and hope you put him in on just the good days.
19. John Lackey - A great inning eating pitcher and racks up a ton of wins playing for the Angels. He gets his fair share of strikeouts and keep his ERA around 3.00.
20. Matt Cain - He's not quite there yet, but he'll get there. Cain struck out 186 batters last year and kept his ERA respectable. The Giants lack of run support earned him an 8-14 record. He has all the tools to become a big time starter in the majors. He and Lincecum could make the best one two pitching punch in baseball.
Posted
Mar 16 2009, 07:00 AM
by
Nick Fruscello