2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers

In the 01-02 fantasy hockey season, I let the autopick select my players for me.  It turned out to be a horrendous draft for me.  I had two thirds of the A-Line (Petr Sykora and Jason Arnott, no Patrick Elias), Mario Lemieux (only played 24 games) and Olaf Kolzig was my top netminder.  Not exactly people I would have drafted, except for Mario.  So I had to turn to the waiver wire and find the sleepers and top rookies to fix my team.  First, I snatched up Eric Lindros.  People stayed away from him due to concussion problems and just general hatred for the former Flyers captain, but for me, desperate times called for desperate measures.  I wasn't fond of him either, but he left Philly under bad circumstances and any enemy of the Flyers is a friend of mine.  Next, I turned to rookies.  I dropped some of the proven talent like Sykora and Arnott and picked up guys that went by the name Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Heatley, Richards, and Comrie.  There were slim pickens on waivers for goalies, but I was able to assemble the Carolina Hurricanes tandem of Arturs Irbe and Tom Barrasso.  Not the best in the world, but serviceable considering I built it from the waiver wire.  This team of sleepers, rookies and gambles, finished 6th in the regular season, but streaked through the post season and lost a tough, back and forth series in the Finals.  Even if you're draft didn't go the way you wanted it to, there's always hope.  There's a gold mine sitting out there on the waiver wire, you just have to know where to look. 

The percentages next to their names are ownership throughout all of the ESPN fantasy hockey leagues.

Sleepers:

Here are the guys that most people passed up in the draft and are most likely sitting on waivers.  Here are the 08-09 sleepers

Sergei Fedorov (55%) - Its been awhile since Sergei Fedorov looked like this (Love that commercial), but he's played for some pretty bad teams over the last few years.  Leaving the Wings was not a great career move.  Last year, Feds was traded to the Washington Capitals and looked a lot better.  He recorded 13 points in 18 games and 5 more points in their seven game series against the Flyers.  Depending on what line Fedorov is a part of (can you imagine him and Ovechkin on a line all season?), he could potentially return to form and be the sleeper of the year.

(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Martin Gerber (48%) - Okay, so Darth BabyFood hasn't gotten the job done in his first two seasons in Ottawa and the defense took a big hit with the loss of Wade Redden.  He's still a starting goaltender for a quality Eastern Conference team and the Sens are going to change their style of play to cover up for there defensive deficiencies (say that five times fast).  BabyFood posted 30 wins last year and as long as he doesn't fall apart, he should post another 30 this year.

Kyle Okposo (22%) - The Islanders are expecting a lot out of their first round pick from 2006.  He's a high energy player that will see time on the first or second line.  The Islanders need him to be successful and will give him every chance to succeed. He'll log a lot of ice time and with playmakers like Comrie and Weight, he should have an easier time scoring points as well.

Mike Modano (37%) - Modano's talent has declined, but this season he's been skating alongside Brad Richards and Sean Avery in camp.  He's also, at times, been paired up with Avery and Lehtinen, so Modano looks like he'll still be on one of Dallas' top two lines this season.  Don't give up on Mikey Mo yet, he has plenty of gas left in the tank.

Sam Gagner (23%) - While filling in for the injured Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner put up some big numbers.  13 points in 12 games in February and 15 points in 15 games in March.  Now that Horcoff is back, it throws his fantasy value up in the air, but after watching him finish so strong, its hard to imagine him not getting a lot of playing time on the second line.

David Booth (9%) - Last year, he was the Panthers top left winger (22 goals) and he appeared to have a bright future in the sunshine state.  But this past off season Florida acquired Cory Stillman, effectively bumping Booth to the second line.  I wouldn't give up on him just yet.  The Panthers are starved for offense and if they struggle to score goals (and they will), Booth should get a shot at the top line.

Ron Hainsey (63%) - If you're looking for points from your d-men (who isn't), take a chance on Hainsey.  He has a huge offensive upside and will be playing the point with Mathieu Schneider on the Thrashers powerplay. Hainsey scored 8 goals with the Blue Jackets last year and all of them were on the powerplay.

R.J. Umberger (27%) - I know a lot of people are taking the "wait and see" approach with Umberger.  Last year, in the regular season he only scored 13 goals and finished with 37 assists.  Then in the postseason he took off with 10 goals in 17 games.  In Philly, there was a log jam at center and he wasn't really given a big opportunity there.  In Columbus, he'll get a chance to center the top line with Rick Nash and Kristian Huselius.  I think the post season version of Umberger is likely to emerge with this lineup.

Don't forget about...

If you haven't had your hockey draft yet, you will want to be on the lookout for these players.  Prior to the 05-06 season, both Crosby and Ovechkin were ranked in the in the 500's in Yahoo rankings prior to the draft.  These are star players that could be ranked incorrectly on your draft board due to being them being a rookie or only playing half a season last year and show up far down on the list.  Or they are simply players that people just don't seem to know about yet and fall far in drafts.

Steve Stamkos - The first overall pick in the 2008 draft shouldn't be forgotten, but it's amazing how far he's dropping in fantasy drafts, if he's drafted at all.  Stamkos has unlimited offensive potential and will have plenty of support around him on the Lightning.  Don't forget about him in your draft.  You may want to check your waiver wire for him, depending on your league, there's a good chance he'll be there.  He is the pre-season favorite to win the Calder Trophy.

(Photo by Darrel Dyck / AP)

Teemu Selanne - Depending on when your draft occurred, you may very well see him sitting out on waivers.  Selanne has signed with the Ducks and looking pretty good so far.  Selanne went undrafted in my league, then a couple hours later I read that he signed a "try out" contract with Anaheim and picked him up off waivers.  If you haven't drafted yet, add him to your que and draft him like you would any other 40-40 player. 

Joe Sakic - A lot of players passed on Sakic because of his age or because he missed half of last year.  Or maybe its because his name was far down on the draft list.  But don't let his age fool you; he's still a great pickup.  The last time he hit 100 points was only two years ago.  The Avs are also changing their style to utilize their speed for offense and a guy like Sakic will really benefit from this.

Daniel Carcillo - Yes, he's a big PIM monster.  In fact Gretzky sent him to the minors for getting kicked out of too many games.  But what is really strange for someone with that many PIM is that he can actually score as well.  Carcillo recorded 24 points in 57 games and did this with limited playing time (mostly due to be ejected).  If you want to make sure you lock up the PIM category ever week and get a few extra goals or assists, he's a great player to have.

Simon Gagne - Like Sakic, Gagne spent most of last season on the shelf and his name will show up towards the bottom of the draft board.  Don't forget that this guy had two back-to-back 40+ goal season before last year.  This year, playing alongside Briere and Richards, he's looking like he'll make it 3 out of 4 years at 40 goals.

Scott Niedermayer - As ridiculous as it sounds, players like Philippe Boucher and Scott Hartnell were drafted before Scott Niedermayer in my draft.  Again, he played just a half season last year and the fantasy hockey rankings have him listed really low.  He is a steal at defense.

Peter Mueller - He didn't get promoted to one of the top lines until later in the season, but he showed a lot of potential.  Mueller has a great shot and isn't afraid to use it.  This year he's slated to be skating on a line with Shane Doan and Olli Jokinen.  Mueller is set to improve on his 22 goal, 32 assist campaign and could potentially reach 40 goals, but is more likely to get around 30-35.

Anze Kopitar - If Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin didn't exist, everyone would be talking about the young phenom, Anze Kopitar.  When trade rumors had Malkin linked to the Kings with Kopitar coming here, I was pretty excited.  He's a beast to contain and is putting up some pretty good numbers on a bad team.  There are only two drawbacks to owning him. One, his numbers won't be as high as they could be since he has to play the in the defensive minded Pacific division (Sharks, Ducks, Stars and even Coyotes).  Two, the Kings are the beat down toy for the Western conference, which kills his plus/minus numbers.  If you don't mind the plus/minus, he's good for 30 goals and 40 assists.

Nikolai Zherdev - He's been going relatively late in drafts this year, but he's in a much better situation now in New York and its supposed to be paired up with Gomez and Naslund on the top line.  Zherdev has a lot of offensive talent and this could the breakout year that everyone has been waiting for.  Even if it isn't, he's still good for 25-30 goals.


Posted Oct 02 2008, 10:35 AM by Nick Fruscello

Comments

a Habay wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Thu, Oct 2 2008 9:55 PM

Your sleepers are spot on...I picked up Stamkos the first day waivers were available and dropped Bill Guerin on a terrible Islanders team...Selanne is on waivers and two guys just dropped Hainsey and Sakic...with the potential of both Foppa and Mats heading to Colorado, that could be a good group of old guys....

Nick Fruscello wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 11:13 AM

Thanks!  Yeah I had just read about that recently with the Avs getting Forsberg and Sundin.  If that does happen, what a huge shift it would create in the NHL and in fantasy hockey considering those players are on waivers everywhere.  The only problem with that scenario is that these two will need to take pay cuts in order to both fit under the cap.  Colorado currently only has $5 mil available under the cap.  Maybe they'll do what Kariya and Selanne did a few years ago, but I doubt it.  

Buc Fever wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 11:44 AM

Enjoy winning your league. There's not much hope for real competition from those two teams if they are dropping players like Hainsey and Sakic!

Good list of sleepers Nick. I certainly would have added Satan, but since most of us reading this are in Pittsburgh, that secret is probably out!

Too bad I drafted the day before this, I really blew it on Selanne. Being my first draft of the hockey season, I tend to be a bit rusty on my first team and didn't even realize that he was ranked so low. I'll never forgive myself for drafting Cam Ward and then wathing Selanne get taken with the very next pick....all the way in the 7th round! 35-40 goal production in the 7th round?!?! To be fair, there had been a run on goalies and I needed another strong starter to team with Lundqvist, but had I drafted Selanne, I still would have had my choice of these guys: Mike Smith, Gerber, Toskala, DiPietro and Legace.

Also, to my surprise, I was able to pick up Ty Conklin in the 19th round. Are you kidding me? You better adjust those sleepers right now if Conklin is going this late in all leagues. Playing on Detroit, he'll see 15/20 shots per game, and absolutely kill in GAA and wins. Osgood is like 125 years old, so Conklin will probably get his fair share of starts. I imagine it will be a 65-35 split, with the opportunity for Conklin to take over if Osgood has a prolonged cold streak.

I never understood why people draft borderline scrubs in the last few rounds. They'll just rot on your bench anyway or get dropped for whoever the "First Week Wonder" might be on the waiver wire, so why not go all in for potential. My last 3 picks? Conklin, Okposo, & Fabian Brunnstrom.

But god my RW looks weak (Cheechoo, Holmstrom, Kessel)....if only I had a 30-40 goal guy sitting there... :(

Nick Fruscello wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 1:33 PM

I thought about Satan, but you're right most people reading this are in Pittsburgh and usually reach for Satan already.  

I like Ty Conklin and the situation he's in, but I don't think he's a great fantasy pickup for most leagues.  If you have a points based league where you get points for wins and saves, a goalie that plays 60-70 games will do better than Conklin, even if Conklin's overall numbers are better.  If you're in a head to head league competing for categories, having both Conklin and Osgood is a great idea, but not Conklin by himself.  Trust me, I've tried to have a part time goalie on my roster in the past, but unless you have the starter too, it doesn't work out that well.  Of course, if Ozzie gets injured, his value will go through the roof, so he might not be bad to hang onto and stash away if you have the extra roster spot.

I know what you mean.  I've seen names like Rico Fata or Kris Beech get taken in years past when good rookies are just sitting there.  I think some people just draft a player because either a) they've heard of them before, b) they have a cool name, or c) they just want to get their pick over with.  I like your last three picks.  Lots of potential, especially with Brunnstrom, who I did forget to put in my sleepers list.  Before this year, he was considered the best hockey player outside the NHL.  Take that for what its worth.  Aleksey Morozov used to hold that title too.

Buc Fever wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 2:34 PM

Eh, in my opinion you're better off with Conklin than any of the starters on terrible teams. Conklin is likely to get 1-2 wins per week and a super low GAA. Granted, you wouldn't use him as your second goalie, but he's excellent as a third guy to boost GAA, W, and potentially SO and SV%. My league doesn't count total saves, which is a bogus category in my opinion. If your goalie lets in 8 goals on 55 shots, no reason he gets more points in that category over a guy who let in 1 on 23. SV% is the way to go.

Based on what you've been saying, it looks like you play on ESPN...is that correct? I've been a yahoo fantasy guy and it seems great. I tried cbssportsline for hockey last year, but it was pathetic. Can you compare ESPN to Yahoo?

Nick Fruscello wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 3:33 PM

I would expect at most one 1 per week out of Conklin, if anything.  On the topic of recording points per save, the point I was trying to make was that even if a goalie isn't playing well, if he's playing more games than Conklin, he'll record more fantasy points.  For instance, Roberto Luongo will play 70+ games and get a lot of saves, while Niklas Backstrom will put up better stats on the Wild, but he'll only play 50-60 games, thus recording less saves.  

Yeah, I've played Yahoo fantasy sports for years and just switched over to ESPN this year, so I'm very familiar with Yahoo rules and settings.  I like ESPN a lot.  Much more than Yahoo and wish I had switched over earlier.  ESPN gives you real time scoring, which you have to pay for in Yahoo.  ESPN doesn't divide forwards up into categories like C, LW, RW, like Yahoo.  I think this is a plus for ESPN because Yahoo doesn't always update their positions accurately.  I've written countless emails to Yahoo about this.  I'll watch Henrik Zetterberg play center for 3 months and Yahoo will still have him listed as just a LW, which can sometimes make it difficult to setup your lineup.  Forwards switch position so often, grouping all the forwards into one position is just a better idea.  ESPN leagues are just as customizable as Yahoo ones.  You can see the overall ownership percentages of each player.  It also shows a players' ownership, rising or falling throughout the season.  ESPN even has a jersey creator, which isn't necessary, of course, but its pretty cool. You should really give it a try, its worth it.

Buc Fever wrote re: 2008 Fantasy Hockey Sleepers
on Fri, Oct 3 2008 3:55 PM

Thanks for the info on ESPN. Maybe I'll join one over there and try it out for the year. The position thing can be infuriating, but even moreso when you have a center who is playing on the wing and they don't give him that wing eligibility. Center is such a deeper position, you want to get that guy to the wing already!

BTW: Yahoo added a new feature this year that shows you what percentage of teams are starting each player on your roster that night, right on your edit roster page. A nice addition.

I see what you're saying about Conklin's worth in a points based league, but I don't play point leagues. I usually end up playing 3 rotisseries and 1 head to head. I think rotisserie is the best way to go though. H2H is fun, but one injury to a star down the stretch or in the fantasy playoffs and a fantastic season is reduced to nothing more than a footnote. In a points league, I don't have a problem if they're giving out .1 points for a save or something like that...but if it were a rotisserie league or H2H, that would be an equally weighted stat category. No thanks on giving that category to whoever owns the goalies in LA, Columbus, Florida or Tampa every week! :)