Quarterbacks Preview

The Quarterback.  It is very difficult to win your fantasy league without a good one.  In 04, I took Peyton Manning in the first round and I got lots of laughs from the fantasy draft chat room.  "You can't draft a quarterback in the first round!"  "Its all about running backs."  "Well there's two easy wins for me".  Forty-nine TD passes later; I had a 12-4 record and a 2nd straight Fantasy Football title.  If a quarterback is capable of putting up stats that look like something you'd see in the AFL or in Madden 09, he is most definitely worthy of a first round pick.  Last year, as much as I hated to do it, I closed my eyes, clicked the "Hire" button next to Tom Brady's name and watched the Xtreme Machine (my team) dominate the PG salary cap football game.  Brady was the most expensive player in the league and with good reason.  He had almost 100 points more than any other player in the league.  Running backs are typically the most valuable players in any fantasy league, but every now and then a quarterback comes along and turns that fantasy philosophy upside down.  Here is The Fantasy Factor's top 15.

1.  Tom Brady - He is the heart and soul of the most hated team in football.  He was the AP Male Athlete of the Year.  He was the 2007 NFL MVP.  He has two Super Bowl MVP's.  He has three Super Bowls.  He fumbled the ball in the 2001 playoffs, but the referees made the worst call in the history of sports and said it was an incomplete pass. He then went on to beat the Steelers and then win his first Super Bowl.  There's a lot to hate about Tom Brady, but if he's on your fantasy team, there's a lot to like.  The man named Brady threw an NFL record 50 touchdowns last year and I don't see any reason as why he won't be able to at least come close to doing that again.  The loss of Stallworth will hurt the passing game a little bit, but Brady and the Patriots have an easier schedule this year and still get to play the Jets, Dolphins and Bills defenses twice.  Fantasy Factor Projection: 40-45 TD's, 4200 yards passing, 10 INTS. 

2.  Tony Romo - No quarterback in football has it as easy as Tony Romo.  He plays quarterback for the most glamorous team in the NFL and has a vast array of weapons at his disposal.  Romo will be entering his third season as quarterback, second as a starter and the expectations are extremely high.  In his first year, he only started 11 games and threw 19 touchdowns.  Last year, he threw 36 TD's.  This year, he is expected to get the Cowboys back to the Super Bowl and there's little reason to believe he won't.  He has the best WR and TE in football and with Barber becoming the full time back, teams will have to respect the run more.  Romo should see a drop in INT's increasing his value from last year.  Right now it appears as though nothing can stand in his way.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  35-40 TD's,  4000 yards passing, 15 INTS.

3.  Drew Brees - Last year, Drew Brees was expected to come in and light the world on fire like he did in 2006 but instead was considered by many to be a disappointment, at least for him anyways.  Brees' down year consisted of 4400 yards passing and 28 TD's.  This was a down year?  With the exception of the INT numbers (11 in 06 and 18 in 07), his numbers were almost identical to the previous season.  I expect Brees to have his best year as a Saint this season.  The addition of Jeremy Shockey is a big one for Brees.  Remember how often Brees threw the ball to Antonio Gates in San Diego.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  35-40 TD's, 4000 yards, 15 INTS. 

4.  Peyton Manning - Often referred to as the best quarterback in football, has dropped to fourth on my rankings.  His top target Starvin Marvin Harrison is coming off knee surgery and going to be 36 by the start of the season.  However, Manning still posted Pro Bowl caliber numbers even with a good chunk of his team (including Harrison) getting injured throughout the year.  The Colts running game with Joseph Addai and returning back, Dominic Rhodes will probably affect him the most and cut into his touchdown total.  Peyton is still my personal favorite quarterback.  He consistently throws around 30 TD's, gets over 4000 yards passing and keeps his INT total down.  If you have him on your team, you are a threat to win the title.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  30-35 TD's, 4000 yards, 10 INTS

5.  Ben Roethlisberger - Big Ben would actually be a lot higher on my list if his passing yardage numbers were up, however playing for a cold weather team that loves to run the football, its really tough to accomplish that.  Roethlisberger also only threw the ball 404 times this past year, compared to Manning and Brady who threw more than 500 times.  The good news for Ben's fantasy owners is that when he does throw the ball, big things happen.  Roethlisberger threw 32 TD's, good for 3rd in the NFL and had the second best QB rating (104.1) behind Brady.  If Ben throws the ball more this year, he could easily climb up to the 2nd or 3rd spot.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  30-35 TD's, 3500 yards, 15 INTS

 (Photo by AP)

6.  Matt Hasselbeck - Only two other teams threw more passes than the Seahawks last year, the Saints and Cardinals.  The Hawks threw almost 37 times per game last year and will probably continue that trend this year.  Hasselbeck is probably the most underrated quarterbacks in the game today and has been a pleasant surprise for many owners.  The Hawks have a good trio of receivers in Deion Branch, Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram for Hasselbeck to continue his success.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  30-35 TD's, 3500 yards, 12 INTS

7.  Derek Anderson -The Browns really lucked out when Derek Anderson took the helm and directed them to 10 wins last year after they started the season with the forgettable, Charlie Frye.  Nobody expected anything out of the Browns or Anderson, which is why I think they both had so much success last year.  This year, however, they're not catching anyone by surprise.  That is a cause for concern for Anderson owners this year.  However, he will have every opportunity to succeed this year.  His O-line is solid, they added Donte Stallworth in the off season to go along with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow and Jamal Lewis has apparently found the fountain of youth with his running.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  25-30 TD's, 3800 yards, 17 INTS

8. Jake Delhomme  - In 2007, Delhomme was on his way to having a career year and then the injury bug jumped him, injured his elbow and took his wallet.  Well maybe not that last one, but it was a disappointing ending for Delhomme and the Panthers that tried everything including Vinny Interceptaverde.  Delhomme is back now and ready to resume his role as starting quarterback for the Panthers and in addition to Steve Smith, he now has another familiar target to throw to this season, Muhsin Muhammad.  This move didn't get a lot of attention in the media when it happened, but I think this is a big deal for the Panthers.  In Muhammad's final year with the Panthers (2004), he caught 16 TD passes.  Muhammad is the perfect compliment for Steve Smith in this offense and Delhomme should have a great comeback season throwing to these two receivers.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  30-35 TD's, 3700 yards, 15 INTS

9. Philip Rivers - This will be the year.  This will be the year that people stop referring to him as the "weak point" in the Chargers offense.  If last season's playoffs were any indication, this year Rivers should blast himself into the upper echelon of quarterbacks.  Rivers will have a full season of Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates.  Combine this with the fact that the Chargers have an easier schedule than last year and they have this running back guy that's like really good or something, and its adds up to a career year for Rivers.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  25-30 TD's, 3500 yards, 7 INTS

(Photo by Winslow Townson / AP)

10 . Carson Palmer -The Captain of Team Convict also holds the title of Mr Overrated 2007.  After two spectacular seasons with the Bengals, he turned into a Bungle and threw 20 INTs.  Palmer was considered to be a top 5 QB at this time last year, but injuries to Rudi Johnson and their O-Line forced the Bengals to pass almost non-stop.  Even with receivers like Houshmandzadeh and Ocho Cinco, it didn't help and Palmer had his worst season since his rookie year.  Things don't look much better going into this year either.  The Bengals have a tough schedule and the running game is still up in the air with Rudi Johnson and Kenny Watson.  I'm sure the Bengals fans though will stick by him no matter what... or maybe not.   Fantasy Factor Projection:  25-30 TD's, 4000 yards, 18 INTS

11.  Donovan McNabb -Injury problems aside, McNabb is a pretty good fantasy QB.  If he could stay healthy, he'd be a great one.  He's a good runner and an even better passer, despite not having a top tier WR.  McNabb's answer to that problem was to make running back Brian Westbrook his favorite target and he ended up with a team leading 90 receptions last year.  If you're feeling risky or if you already have a QB and think McNabb has dropped too far in your draft, snag him up. When he's healthy, he's an MVP caliber quarterback.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  20-25 TD's, 3000 yards, 10 INTS, (12 games)

12. Marc Bulger  - Last year, Bulger had what will probably be the worst season of his career.  He was injured for most of the season and was an interception machine when he was in there.  Things aren't looking that great this year either for Bulger.  Issac Bruce left for SF and right now Steven Jackson is a training camp no show.  If something happens to Tory Holt, he might as well just take the snap and kneel down with it.  He'd be better off... safer too.  Assuming nothing happens to Holt and Jackson remembers he signed a commitment to play for the Rams this year, Bulger should have a good bounce back season.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  20-25 TD's, 3400 yards, 11 INTS

13. David Garrard - When Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio cut starting QB Byron Leftwich and made David Garrard starter, there was a lot of head scratching.  But I think we all now know why he did it.  Garrard had the third best QB rating in football last season (102.2) and it figures to be just as good this year.  The two headed monster of Taylor and Jones-Drew is still intact and adding Jerry Porter to the receivers should help.  Now if we can just get Del Rio to make better choices on his attire for the sidelines.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  15-20 TD's, 3000 yards, 10 INTS

14. Jeff Garcia - Assuming he's the man when the season starts and not Brett Favre, Garcia should put together another good/safe season for his fantasy owners.  He's a great West Coast offense QB and he has plenty of weapons to work with.  He's not going to light the world on fire for you, but he will contribute some solid numbers throughout the season.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  15-20 TD's, 2800 yards, 7 INTS

15. Eli Manning - Even after upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl, I'm still not a big fan of Peyton's little brother.  His numbers for the last three years have pretty much been the same.  Around 20 TD's,  20 INTs and 3000 yards.  Not exactly what you're looking for in a fantasy quarterback.  Why is he in my top 15?  Potential.  Even with Jeremy Shockey gone, the G-Men still have lots of targets for him to throw to, most notably, Plaxico Burress whom he has great chemistry with.  The Giants also have a stable of thoroughbreds in their backfield to keep defenses honest.  One of these years Eli is going to put up Peyton like numbers, but I'm thinking its not going to be the year everyone is highlighting them on their schedules.  Fantasy Factor Projection:  20-25 TD's, 3300 yards, 18INTS

X-Factors:

Brett Favre - As of right now, we know this much... Brett Favre will not be playing for the Packers and could be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer by the end of the day.  Of course, tomorrow someone could change their minds and everything we already know could be blown out of the water.  Its times like these that make me glad I don't hold my fantasy football drafts until closer to the end of training camp.  No matter what team Favre ends up playing for, he's going to have a tough time, at least through the first month of the season.  Favre will need to get back into shape and learn a whole new playbook.  Going to the Bucs would be best for Favre.  They play the West Coast Offense, which Favre is used to playing and Jon Gruden works really well with quarterbacks and could get him up to speed on the playbook faster than anyone else.  Stay tuned...

(Photo by Jamie Squire / Getty Images)

Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner - Since being drafted 10th overall in the 2006 draft, the former USC Trojan QB, Leinart, has not lived up to his expectations despite playing in one of the softer divisions and having arguably the best receiver duo in football with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.  Yes, he has been injured off and on throughout the last two years, but so has the 37 year old, Warner.  At the end of last year, he was starting to look like a cyborg.  Cybernetic additions aside, Warner has proven over the last couple years that he is a better quarterback, but Leinart goes into camp as the number one guy.  Ken Whisenhunt is going to find out this year whether or not Leinart is capable of being the franchise QB.  If Leinart doesn't step up his game, Warner will be the man once again and Leinart's employment with the Cardinals will be terminated.

Alex Smith / Shaun Hill - This is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles in training camp.  The number one overall draft pick from 2005 or the undrafted free agent.  Sounds like a joke, but it really isn't.  Smith has struggled the past few seasons, while Hill came in and played really well in the last three games of the season (5 TD's, 1 INT, 101.3 rating).  The wildcard in all of this is new offensive coordinator, Mike Martz who has done an excellent job with quarterbacks over the years.  (Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Jon Kitna)  The winner of this spot will be guy who understands and executes Martz's offense best and whomever does it best will be golden.  I wouldn't draft one of these QB's right away.  You may end up with fools gold.  Wait to see who wins in camp and then stash him away as your backup QB.