Aug 29 2008
This week your fantasy sports go-to-guy was involved in his own fantasy football draft on ESPN. It was your standard league with the usual roster spots. Nothing special. I logged into the draft early and discovered that I was picking 10th... out of 10 teams. Yay me. Some people say that it doesn't matter because that just means I get the first pick in the second round, but I disagree. I hate picking 10th. I would much rather pick first in the 1st and 3rd rounds, than in the 2nd and 4th rounds. But really, considering I won both fantasy football leagues I played in last year, its only fitting that I pick last in fantasy drafts. Picking 7th was Mrs Fantasy Factor, my wife, Maria (pictured). She's actually a really tough player to play against for a number of reasons. She watches A LOT of football, pumps me for information every chance she gets and is incredibly lucky or can simply see the future. Last year, she picked up Earnest Graham well before anyone else even knew he existed, even Jon Gruden.
(Photo by Erica McFarland)
1st Round:
As the draft started, I looked at the list of players and thought to myself, "Well if I can get lucky, Gore and Barber will fall to me and I'll be in great shape." Knowing my wife wanted Tom Brady as her first pick, that was one less person I had to worry about taking one of those two backs. Everything started out as planned. Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, and Lynch were the first 5 picks. Lynch was a bit of a surprise to me, which only added to my optimism, but it was short lived. The 6th pick was Brady and Maria was up next. Uh oh... "With the 7th pick in the 2008 fantasy football draft, Mrs Fantasy Factor selects RB Frank Gore, SF 49ers". Crappers! And just like that my perfect 1st and 2nd round combo went down in flames. I still had to sweat out two more picks before I would find out if I would at least be able to land Marion Barber. Steven Jackson went 8th and Clinton Portis went 9th... Whew! Made it. "With the final pick of the first round, the Xtreme Machine selects RB Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys." I handed Barber a black jersey with red numbers, got some pictures taken and knew that I had a TD monster in my backfield.
2nd Round:
With the exception of 2004, when I drafted Peyton Manning, I have avoided drafting a quarterback in the high rounds. I always figured somebody good will greet me down the road that would fill that spot just as well as any elite quarterback would. Then I would draft a wide receiver and there were plenty available at this point. Moss, Owens, Fitzgerald, but not this year. As I've found out the hard way, its tough to win a fantasy championship without a good quarterback and I knew there wouldn't be an elite quarterback waiting for me at the end of the yellow brick draft road in the 3rd round. So I click my mouse three times and said "There's no QB like Romo, there's no QB like Romo, there's no QB like Romo" and like magic the Cowboy quarterback appeared on my roster. 2nd Round Pick: Tony Romo
3rd Round:
This was the toughest part of the draft for me. All that talent on the board and not being able to pick again until everyone else picks twice. A lot of top backs were taken in the 2nd round and top receivers and QB's in the third. Finally, after waiting for what seemed like an eternity, it was my turn. It was between Colston and "Who's your momma" (Houshmandzadeh). Maybe it was the Steeler fan in me or maybe it had to do with the fact that Colston is the top receiver on a pass happy offense, but I went with Cool Cat Colston in the 3rd round. 3rd Round Pick: Marques Colston
4th Round:
Now the reasonable thing to do at this point would be to grab Houshmandzadeh since it was between him and Colston in the last round. But I decided to switch gears and take another look at the available running backs. Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner, Run DMC (Darren McFadden) were all still on the board, but I have a very strong feeling about Thomas Jones this year. As I mentioned in my sleeper picks and in my RB preview, Jones will have every opportunity to succeed this season. Soft schedule, rebuilt offensive line, Brett Favre. The planets seem to be aligning for Jones this year and I know he'll be long gone before I get to pick again. 4th Round Pick: Thomas Jones
5th Round:
Once again, the long wait till my next pick. I'm watching names like Favre, Holmes, Gates, Witten, Smith, Boldin and Welker get picked along with the RB's I mentioned in the last round. I need receiving big time. Fortunately, at this point the best players out there are receivers and there was one receiver I was kind of surprised to see this late, the Soldja boy himself, Kellen Winslow Jr. This was a no brainer. He'll rack up the most receiving yards of any TE's and if he can continue to build on his TD receptions, his numbers will be equivalent to a top tier WR. 5th Round Pick: Kellen Winslow Jr
(Photo by Getty Images)
6th Round:
Looking to round out my starting receiving core, I took a look at the WR's. With Harrison and Marshall on the board, there were still some decent options, but I'm always looking for the steals or the guys that have the potential to be more than just decent. That's why I broke down the draft walls with Jerricho Cotchery. Jerricho has the most chemistry with Favre at this point and if that trend continues, he'll post some pro bowl worthy numbers when its all said and done. 6th Round Pick: Jerricho Cotchery
7th Round Pick: Nick Folk - A lot of people like to pick kickers last or near the end, but Folk is one I can't pass up. No, not because he has the same initials as me. Can your kicker do this? He scored some big points for me in some big games last year and Folk should continue with that this year. The Cowboys look to have the best offense in football this year and Folk will be factoring in on those points in some way, shape or form.
8th Round Pick: Ricky Williams - This was a tough one. I used about 88 seconds of my 90 second draft window before deciding to jump aboard the Pineapple Express. I didn't want Ricky this early, but then again this guy may very well be the Comeback player of the year in the NFL. The 8th round is a great round to get a guy like Ricky, plus I already had a plan on stock piling RB's toward the end of the draft.
9th Round Pick: Dallas Cowboys D/ST - With the Chargers defense gone (to Mrs Fantasy Factor, of course), I continued with my Cowboys themed team and drafted their defense/special teams. Tank Johnson and Adam "Don't call me Pacman anymore" Jones will play some very inspired football this season to prove that have what it takes.
10th Round Pick: Kenny Watson - As I had mentioned in my sleepers post, Kenny Watson has a lot of Brian Westbrook qualities to him. The latest on the Bungles running back situation made him an even stronger pick. In my opinion, Watson is worth the gamble. Even if Johnson comes back, he's not going to be 100% and quite frankly he just isn't as good as Watson. He does a lot more for the offense than Rudi and I think Marvin Lewis will see this... his job depends on it.
11th Round Pick: Ray Rice - I'm not sure which was more surprising to me, the fact that he was still available in the 11th round or the fact that I hadn't picked him yet after signing his praises for so long. Rice is a really good back and is shining this preseason. At some point he will be the starter and we all know how starting RB's fair in Cam Cameron offenses.
(Photo by Lloyd Fox / AP)
12th Round Pick: Jake Delhomme - I had sent an IM to Maria saying, "I forgot to pick a backup QB and now all the good ones are taken. I really hope Romo doesn't get hurt this year". She responded with, "What? What are you talking about? I'm taking Rivers." As it turned out, I, with all of my infinite wisdom, had sorted the list sorted wrong. I thought Tavaris Jackson being the best QB left available was kind of odd. When I sorted the list right, my eyes almost bugged out. There was Jake Delhomme and Philip Rivers just sitting there undrafted in the 12th round. Unreal. It was a toss up between the two. Delhomme and Rivers were listed at 8th and 9th respectively in my rankings. But I decided to stick with my rankings, plus I knew Mrs Fantasy Factor wanted Rivers and if it wasn't for her I would've been drafting T-Jack as my backup.
13th Round Pick: Chris Johnson - Going into this round I'm thinking, "Okay, time to get a depth player at receiver and Ted Ginn Jr will do just fine". Maria IM's me and says "I'm taking Stallworth". That's just fine by me. "With the 127th pick in the 2008 fantasy draft, Mrs Fantasy Factor selects WR Ted Ginn Jr". UGH! Again! I IMed her, "What happened to Stallworth?!". She responds with "I read your sleeper picks post. hehe" Hurt by my own blog. So with that I decided to complete the stock piling of RB's by selecting the Titans number one pick, Chris Johnson. Its a risky pick for sure, but I've never really been a LenDale White fan and I don't think the Titans are either. Why else would they draft a RB in the first round? Johnson should be starting or at least getting the lion share of the carries by the end.
14th Round Pick: 49ers D/ST - Another gamble pick here on my part. The Niners have built a pretty solid defense on paper. One that could create a lot of turnovers and make plays, but until they go out there and actually do it this defense is a risk.
15th Round Pick: Muhsin Muhammad - As I mentioned in my sleeper post, Muhammad wants to show that it was the poor quarterback play of the Bears that affected his production and not his age. Muhammad caught 16 TD passes from Delhomme in 2004. If he can get half that, I'd be happy. He's filling the spot that was intended for Ted Ginn Jr.
16th Round Pick: Zach Miller - Also another one of my sleeper picks, Miller is a steal. JaMarcus Russell seems most comfortable throwing him the ball over anyone else. Hopefully he feels that way all year. Miller is a good TE to start and great one to have as a backup in case Winslow decides to do his best Evil Knievel impression again.
Just like that my 2008 fantasy football draft came to an end. For those of you that are wondering here's how Mrs Fantasy Factor's team shaped up:
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Frank Gore
Earnest Graham
Julius Jones
Chester Taylor
Terrell Owens
Donald Driver
Ted Ginn Jr
Patrick Crayton
Issac Bruce
Antonio Gates
Vernon Davis
Chargers D/ST
Buccaneers D/ST
Nate Kaeding
Considering I picked last, I came away from this draft with a pretty good team with a lot of upside and potential to be great. I've noticed in the past that a lot of drafts go in similar patterns, so if you're drafting last you'll probably see the same players available that I did throughout your draft, so maybe you could to use this post as a guide to help you in your quest for a fantasy championship. Overall I'd grade this draft as a B+ for my team. I was hoping to get someone more proven to fill the RB/WR slot on my team, but instead I'm going to have my RB committee of Williams, Watson, Rice and Johnson filling that role. Let me know what you guys think. Grade my team. Grade Mrs Fantasy Factors' team. Let me know how you faired in your draft and what grade you would give yourself. If you don't already have an account, click here to create your free account.
Aug 27 2008
As we head into the home stretch of fantasy baseball, its time to look at some of the players that are heating up and some that are tailing off at the most critical part of the season.
Shooting Stars
Mark DeRosa - I never thought I'd say this about a 6 hitter, but DeRosa is a machine. He's batting .378 in August and is showing no signs of slowing down. He's currently enjoying an 8 game hitting streak and in 5 of those games has at least 2 hits. He also went on a 4 game homerun streak. The Cubs are the highest scoring team in the NL by far so his production may not continue at this pace, but he'll still be a reliable bat down the stretch. DeRosa plays second base for the Cubs, but in Yahoo! leagues he's eligible at pretty much any spot. Plug him in wherever you may have a hole in your roster.
(Photo by Getty Images)
Raul Ibanez - At the All Star break I said I believed Ibanez would have a big second half and boy was I right. Since the All Star break Ibanez is batting .372 with 9 HR and 33 RBI in 37 games. Apparently Ibanez didn't get the memo about the Mariners having a snowball chance in "you know where" of making the playoffs this year. If for some ridiculous reason, he's still on waivers, please, I beg you pick him up already!
Alexei Ramirez - The second base / shortstop position is a tough one to get production out of unless; of course you have Chase Utley or Derek Jeter. Most teams are looking for someone to get consistent production out of. If he's not already taken, take a look at Alexei Ramirez. He's been hitting up quite a storm in the Windy City and is a big reason for their surge in the AL central. If you're waiting for your dud of a second baseman to catch fire, quit waiting and get the one that is already on fire.
J.J. Hardy - After falling into a bit of slump earlier in the month, JJ Hardy is once again swinging a hot bat. This hot/cold hitting for Hardy isn't anything out of the ordinary. The good news is, his newest hot streak is just starting, so there's a good chance it'll last into the fantasy baseball playoffs. If you're not committed to your SS, take a chance on the Hardy boy.
Kevin Slowey - It took Kevin a little while to get used to the majors, but I'd have to say he's about ready now. This month he's 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and has a, get this, 27:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He walked ONE batter in this entire month! If you're looking to solidify the backend of your pitching staff, pickup Slowey quickly.
Al Reyes - With all the problems the Mets are having in their bullpen, everyone up to and including Mr Met is getting a chance to prove their mettle. Reyes, the former Rays closer from last year, is currently in the minors "shaking off rust". He should be on the big club next week and will get a chance to close. Reyes proved to be very valuable for the Rays last season as a closer, he would have even more value in a Mets uniform.
Falling Stars:
Magglio Ordonez - Can someone please explain to me how he's not hitting right now? Miguel Cabrera, his protection in the lineup, is white hot since the All Star break, yet Ordonez is struggling at the plate this month. He's way to valuable to drop, but if you have an open bench spot, put him on it. You can't afford to have a high impact player like an outfielder not produce for you this time of year.
Gary Sheffield - Not to keep picking on the Tigers, but if you're an owner clinging to Gary Sheffield like a solider clinging to a helicopter flying out of a battlefield, let go, its not taking you anywhere you want to go. Sheffy batted .235 in July and .224 in August. It was a great career Gary, now its time to hang them up and quit hurting the fantasy owners that have faith in you.
Nate McLouth - I really hate to put NDawg on this list, but... since representing Pittsburgh in the All Star game he's batting .254 and his power numbers have dropped, way down (3 HR and 11 RBI in 33 games). It should be noted though that the sharp decline in his power numbers coincide with the departure of Xavier Nady and Jason Bay. How many batters did Hansen walk last night? McLouth is a droppable player so if there's someone better out there get him.
Dan Haren - Haren was coasting along looking like a real contender for the Cy Young award. Then he got into August, gave up 4 ER to the Pirates and hasn't been the same since. Maybe getting lit up by the Buccos hurt his confidence or maybe the NL has finally figured him out. Either way, it's a tough time for his fantasy owners. The workhorse that has been driving your pitching staff is suddenly having trouble. Yes, he was very dominant versus the Padres last Monday but don't use that to gauge whether he's back or not. Once upon a time, Yoslan Herrera pitched a gem against the Padres. However, it could be the confidence boost he needs to get back on track.
Also, just as a heads up, MLB.com is having a rookie reporter showdown. The winner gets to cover the World Series in October for MLB.com. Co-host Paul Greco of Talking Baseball Live, the national radio show I was a part of, is a finalist. Paul's a baseball encyclopedia and this could be his big break in stardom. This could also be your big break to go to a baseball game where the outcome matters. By voting online you can win two tickets to a game in the 2008 World Series. Click here to vote for Paul.
Aug 25 2008
The most popular question I get asked as the fantasy sports genius is "Who are the sleepers this year?" For those of you that are unfamiliar with the term, we're not talking about that crusty stuff in your eyes when you wake up. We're talking about players that are not on the radar for any number of reasons (injuries, bad few seasons, rookie, etc), typically fall into the later rounds of drafts or don't get drafted at all and then turn into fantasy gold during the season. Picking the best sleepers is the easiest way to win a fantasy championship in any sport. Here are the Fantasy Factor sleepers for the 2008 football season.
Ricky Williams - With a lot of attention on Ronnie Brown in Miami, Williams has made the most of time on the field. He's looked very good in camp and even better in pre-season games. With Brown's knee (and now thumb) not at 100%, there's a good chance that this former 1800 yard rusher, will get most of the carries this year and could very well be the Comeback player of the year. If Ricky is out there late in your draft, take a chance on him.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Sticking with the Dolphins, they have another player that is sure to see a lot of playing time this season in Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn is having a great camp and is also feeling a ripple effect from the Brett Favre trade. When Brett's plane landed in NY, Pennington was unceremoniously shoved out the door. But now as a part of the division rival Dolphins, he's starting to develop a connection with the former 9th overall pick, Ginn. The Dolphins don't have a lot of offensive weapons so Ginn should see the ball a lot including on punt returns. Ginn is absolutely electric with the football and he will look a lot more like a number one draft pick this year.
Michael Turner - With Michael Vick away from the Falcons dealing with his own problems, there's not a whole lot to watch in Atlanta these days, but things may be turning around with Turner. The long time backup to LT will finally get a starting gig with the Falcons and so far has made the most of it. In his first pre season game against the Jags he ran for 22 yards on 5 carries. The next game against the Colts he ran for a whopping 113 yards on 4 carries, mostly due to a 63 yard sprint. Turner has always been a homerun hitter (50+ yard runs) and he'll get more opportunities to hit those homers now. I wouldn't bank on him as your number one, but he's a good risk in the 2nd RB spot and great RB/WR flex player.
Zach Miller - Last year, JaMarcus Russell threw his first, of what will hopefully be many, TD pass to tight end Zach Miller in Week 16. The following week Russell found Miller 8 times for 84 yards. So far this year, Russell has continued that trend in the pre season. The chemistry is definitely there and with TE position so tough to fill, it makes perfect sense to take a chance on him if you're without a TE in the later rounds.
Thomas Jones - As I had mentioned in my RB's preview, Jones will really benefit with the addition of Favre and the rebuilt offensive line. I've seen Jones go as late as the 7th round in standard format leagues, but that was early on. His value has steadily increased since the Favre trade and I think this sleeper is already starting to wake up and fans are already noticing.
Ray Rice - Also mentioned in my preview, Rice is a can't miss player. Right now, he's stuck behind Willie McGahee which is scaring off a lot of people, but Rice is a better all around back than McGahee and at some point this year, will be the Ravens starting back. McGahee is already having injury problems, so it may only be a matter of time. It was really disappointing to see him get drafted by the Ravens, of all teams. Don't be disappointed again and get him on your team.
Chris Johnson - The Titans number one draft pick out of East Carolina has burst onto the scene in Tennessee and is already threatening to unseat current starter Lendale White. Johnson had a 6.0 rushing average, caught 37 passes and scored 23 TD's in 13 games last year. He could be the Titans workhorse for years to come, so this may be the only year he'll come cheap.
Muhsin Muhammad - Last time Muhammad was seen in a Panthers uniform, he pulled down 93 passes for over 1400 yards and 16 TD's. Since then, he's disappeared into the wide receivers vortex known as Chicago, where apparently "receivers go to die". Fortunately, Muhammad is now free of the vortex and is back to where he belongs in Carolina playing opposite Steve Smith. I don't expect his presence to hurt Smith, but in 2004 Delhomme looked for Muhammad a lot in the end zone and will probably do so again this year. He could potentially have over 10 TD's and less than 1000 yards.
Kenny Watson - Despite getting a limited number of carries last year (over 15 carries four times), Watson put together a pretty impressive season while filling in for the injured Rudi Johnson. What really sticks out is the number of passes he caught (52). If Watson had been the full time back all season, he would've had well over 1000 yards rushing and over 80 catches. Watson is a poor man's Brian Westbrook. He has the tools to do it all, the only problem is the Bengals are going with a running back by committee approach right now which is once again limiting Watson's activity and value. If the Bengals decide to someday have a higher number in the win column than in the loss one, Watson will be the starting back.
Aug 22 2008
Hey everyone, welcome to another Fantasy Friday! With the NFL season right around the corner, I received a few football questions and I also got a couple baseball ones as well. I know, just based on the questions I get, that most of my readers are in draft leagues, but if you want to try something a little different check the post-gazette.com's salary cap league at http://www.post-gazette.com/fantasyfootball. Its free and a lot of fun to play. So check it out. Now onto the questions...
What are your thoughts on Larry Johnson? He wasn't on your RB preview and in all the drafts I've been in so far he get drafted anywhere from 2nd to 7th rounds? - TopPick
LJ was a top 5 running back last year, but he's really fallen off and it really has nothing to do with him or his talent. The Chiefs are a mess on offense. No quarterback, no great receiving threat and the offensive line is downright atrocious. This absolutely kills LJ's fantasy value. Teams are going to key on him and force quarterback Brodie Croyle to beat them. Having said that though, the schedule maker was on their side and the Chiefs face several poor run defenses this season which will help Johnson put up decent numbers despite not having a lot of help. For me, Johnson would be a great second RB or a good first RB with your quarterback and wide receivers taken in the earlier rounds. I would say LJ is a 3rd to 5th round pick this year in a standard 10-12 team league.
(Photo by Getty Images)
I am in a keeper league and I need a TE. Boss is available for our draft. Will he have a good year or is there a rookie I should look for? - Jon McClain
Boss was adequate down the stretch while Shockey was injured, but I'm not sold on his long term value. With Plaxico injured, he'll probably pull down a few more passes than usual, but I don't see him making a big impact this year. Right now Zach Miller appears to be an emerging TE with the Raiders. He and JaMarcus Russell appear to have great chemistry. You might want to see if he's available and if not him, one of the Jets number one draft picks this year, Dustin Keller, was a big playmaker at Purdue and will be the starter at some point either this year or next.
I'm in a small fantasy baseball league, everybody's team is stacked. Evan Longoria is my 3rd baseman and of course he's injured now and I'm auditioning for a new 3rd baseman in his absence. Melvin Mora is out there and he's playing really well right now, but cmon now, its Melvin Mora. I don't want someone who's just on a hot streak. - bucco124
Is there another human being out there swinging a hotter bat than Melvin Mora right now? Mora has had four 4 RBI games and one 6 RBI game and batting .455 this month. This is more than just a hot streak. His hitting streak started in July and has really heated up in August. Mora really isn't that bad of a hitter overall, he did win the AL batting title in 2004, so its really not that unimaginable to see him hitting like this now. Mora is a great pick up right now and belong in your lineup, no matter how small your fantasy league is. As for Longoria, he is due to be coming off the DL pretty soon, but I wouldn't be eager to slap him back into your lineup right away. He's reporting some stiffness in his wrist and considering its his right wrist and he's a right handed hitter, it could affect his power. Wrist injuries are tough for hitters to come back from, so I would leave Longoria on your DL, even when he's healthy and wait to see how he performs before plugging him back in.
The Giants defense looks pretty nasty up front and the retirement of Strahan won't be that big of a loss. - hubbuh48
In regards to the G-Men not making the list of my top ten defenses, I think the Strahan retirement, grouped with the fact that everyone will be highlighting the Giants on their schedule this year will hurt them. With Strahan gone, guys like Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck can be double teamed and the Giants ability to get to the quarterback is the strength of this defense. If they can't apply pressure to the quarterback, that secondary is going to get eaten alive by the likes of Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb.
With Billy Wagner on the shelf, who is going to be the Mets closer? - avg2173
That's a good question. They've been throwing out Aaron Heilman in the ninth and he's looked less than impressive. Pedro Feliciano picked up a couple saves and has looked a little bit better than Heilman, but not great. They picked up Luis Ayala and former Rays closer Al Reyes this past week. Reyes probably figures to be the better option between the two of them, but currently is in the minors and probably won't get called up until the September 1st roster expansion. If you're desperate for saves, I'd get Reyes. The Mets are so desperate for bullpen help right now I wouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Met take the mound.
(Photo by NY Post)
Do I draft Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams or both?
Despite all the progress Ronnie Brown has made over the past 10 months with his rehabbing, he hasn't shown us a spark to suggest he can repeat what he did last year. Brown has had two poor showings in pre-season while his "backup", Ricky Williams, has looked really good and was promoted to the first string team a few days ago. The move is said to be done because of Brown's sprained right thumb, but if he can't show the coaches something this pre season, there's no way they can keep Williams off the field. I would stay away from Brown and draft Williams in the later rounds. He could be the steal of the draft.
That wraps it up for this week. If you have a question for this fantasy sports guru, just submit your question through the contact link in the upper left hand corner of the page and your question and my response will get posted next Friday. Also feel free to log on and leave me any of your thoughts or comments.
Aug 20 2008
Nobody knows better than Pittsburgh that, defense wins championships. Its a proven fact. Look at the 70's Steel Curtain. Look at the 85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs. All those teams had dominating defenses practically made them invincible. While having a great defense in the NFL is the fast track to success, in fantasy football, it doesn't really pay off as much. In the fantasy world, its all about making plays. Sure, your team defense can be penalized if they give up too many points, but if they record 5 sacks, pick off a couple passes and score a touchdown, how many points they give up, is irrelevant. This is a position that isn't critical to your success, but it can bail you out if you're offensive stars don't produce. The only time it ever really made an impact for me was in 2003 when I had that ridiculous Miami Dolphins defense. Lots of INTs, sacks, and didn't give up a lot of points either. Here are 10 defenses that could rival that one in terms of fantasy point production:
1. San Diego Chargers - Things you look for in a fantasy defense. One, sacks. The Chargers finished with 42 sacks last year, 2nd in the AFC, led by sack machine Shawne Merriman. Two, interceptions. Last year, they had 8 more than any other team in football. They have one man to thank for that, Antonio Cromartie. He IS the new Deion Sanders of the NFL. Some of the plays he made last year were the most exciting plays ever in the history of the NFL. Three, TD's scored. Mostly thanks to Cromartie, the Chargers finished with 5 TD's, good for second in the AFC. Four, points allowed. San Diego surrendered an average of 17.8 points per game and that was with a tough schedule. This is the defense to have, going into the 2008 season.
2. Minnesota Vikings - The Vikes were a bit of a late bloomer in 2007. The defense didn't really come around until Week 12 when they picked off the eventual Super Bowl quarterback, Eli Manning, 4 times. They finished the season 1st against the run and 1st in defensive TD's. To help improve their pass defense, this past offseason they acquired former KC Chiefs sack master, Jared Allen. The Vikings have, by far, the best offensive and defensive lines in football. A wise man once told me that whomever controls the line of scrimmage controls the game. Good thing Favre left Green Bay, because the NFC North is in the control of the Vikings.
3. Seattle Seahawks - The defending NFC West champions quietly had one of the best defenses in the NFC last year. They finished first in interceptions, led by Marcus Trufant with seven. The Hawks also finished third in sacks and average points allowed. There's a lot of uncertainty with the offenses in NFC West right now and a solid defense, like this one, could really clean up.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Its not as good as the 2002 squad, but the 2008 version of the Bucs defense is one of the most formidable ones in the NFC. Last year, they led the NFC in points and yards per game and like the 2002 defense, led the league in passing yards per game. This is one of the more well rounded defenses in football. Great defensive line, solid linebacking corps, and play makers in the secondary. As long as the offense is respectable and doesn't have the defense on the field all the time, this unit should really take off in 2008.
5. Dallas Cowboys - This defense is loaded with stars, no pun intended.... okay pun intended. DeMarcus Ware, Roy Williams, Terence Newman, Tank Johnson and Adam "Don't call me Pacman anymore" Jones. Whether or not all this talent will cash in remains to be seen, but I'd be willing to take a chance on them. Ware is a sack monster and Williams and Jones will get their hands on a lot of passes this year. This will be the best Cowboys defense since their Super Bowl years.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - There's a lot to like about this defense. They have a great defensive coordinator in Dick LeBeau, a very talented safety in Troy Polamalu that creates a lot of turnovers, and what is shaping up to be possibly one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL. If Lawrence Timmons plays like a first round pick, LaMarr Woodley builds off his success from last year and James Farrior and Harrison continue to play at a high level, the Steelers will be near the top of the league in defense once again. But that's a might big IF as the Steelers have the toughest schedule in the NFL this year.
(Photo by Peter Diana / Post-Gazette)
7. Chicago Bears - After the 2006 season, the Bears defense was expected to once again led this team to the top of the NFC North and beyond. A tougher schedule, injury problems and problems on offense led to a very disappointing season. This year, I'm expecting this unit to bounce back. Brian Urlacher, in my opinion, is the best linebacker in football. He'll be leading this defense once again and I think they'll look more like the 2006 team than last years' team. The question marks on the offense could mean that they'll be on the field a lot and that could spell a lot of trouble for this defense from a fatigue standpoint. The points allowed average won't be great, but they should still get sacks, picks and TD's. If your league is Defense/Special teams, this unit deserves a higher ranking with Pro Bowl returner, Devin Hester.
8. San Francisco 49ers - This is a bit of a gamble pick on my part. Last year, the 49ers were not anything special on either side of the football, but I think things will turn around this year. On paper, this defensive unit looks pretty good. They shelled out a lot of money for Nate Clements last off season to play opposite Walt Harris and have one of the best cornerback tandems in football. It didn't really work out that well since everyone ran all over them. This year, they added Justin Smith to the defensive line and Takeo Spikes to the linebackers, giving them one of the best linebacking corps in football. I think these improvements from this past offseason, will pay off and make them one of the top 10 defenses.
9. Indianapolis Colts - For years, everyone said, "Only if the Colts had a defense...". Well last year, the Colts had a defense. They gave up the least amount of points per game in the NFL and were third in yards allowed. This is a solid defense but it really relies on a few players to work. Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney are the heart and soul. If they guys are hurt, this defense is average at best.
10. Tennessee Titans -This is a defense with a lot of strength up front and lead the league in run defense before Albert Haynesworth got injured. Like the Colts, this defense relies a lot on a couple players to be successful. Haynesworth is one of them. The secondary consists of a lot of ball hawkers and finished third in the NFL in INTs.
Aug 18 2008
No other position in football is as hit or miss as the tight end position. There are very few TE's worth owning, the rest basically just fill a roster spot, so drafting a good one is necessary to build a complete team. Every now and again a new TE will emerge and give some lucky owner production out of a spot he gave up on. In the 2004 draft, I took a chance on an undrafted TE from Kent State playing for the Chargers. I was hoping he would catch a few TD passes here and there. He caught 81 passes for 984 yards, 13 TD's and for years has become everyone's number favorite TE, Antonio Gates. Here is the Fantasy Factors' top 10 TE picks for 2008.
1. Jason Witten - Tony Romo's roadtrip roommate, Witten, experienced a career year with over 1000 yards receiving and 7 TD's in 2007. This upcoming season promises more of the same. The Cowboys offense is looking very explosive right now and Witten should easily be able to duplicate his 2007 success. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 rec, 950 yards, 8 TD's
(Photo by Getty Images)
2. Antonio Gates -With all the success I've personally had with Gates on my fantasy teams throughout the years, it pains me to rank him as second. The reason behind it though has to do with his injured toe, that bothered him in the playoffs and all through the off season. He said the pain is "tolerable" but is still feeling a lot of discomfort. Injuries aside, Gates is still a great TE and should continue to rack up big numbers, especially this year with the Chargers passing game getting a lot better. Gates won't have to deal with the same types of coverages he did in the past and if he can get over this injury problem, he will have a career year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 75 rec, 850 yards, 9 TD's
3. Jeremy Shockey - When the Saints acquired, long time Giant, Jeremy Shockey, his value skyrocketed instantly. The Giants were said to be shopping him around and sending him to the Saints was the best possible move for Shockey, the Saints and his owners. Shockey is now reunited with his former offensive coordinator from the Giants, Sean Payton, who was their coordinator during his most productive year. Combine that with the fact that Brees loves to pass the ball to TE's and Shockey should have a big year in the Big Easy. Fantasy Factor Projection: 70 rec, 800 yards, 9 TD's
4. Kellen Winslow - He may never be as good as his father, but for the last two years, Junior has been a beast... or a soldier... whatever he prefers to be called. In 2005, Winslow injured himself on a motorcycle, causing himself to miss the entire season. Since the crash, Winslow has put together two fantastic Pro Bowl worthy seasons for the Brownies. He acted as Derek Anderson's security blanket last year, which led to him leading the team in receptions. This year, with the Cleveland offense looking even better, Winslow should put up big numbers again and could be the best TE in the league when its all said and done. Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 rec, 1100 yards, 7 TD's
5. Tony Gonzalez - This 9 time Pro Bowler has been one of the best TE's in football. Despite all the struggles of the Chiefs offense last year, Gonzalez still managed to pull down 99 passes for 1172 yards. He should once again put together another good season, but playing in this offense, his numbers are bound to take a hit. Fantasy Factor Projection: 70 rec, 900 yards, 6 TD's
6. Vernon Davis - After being drafted 6th overall in the 2006 draft, big things were expected of Davis, but so far, it hasn't happend. The 49ers, though with Mike Martz as the new OC, are looking to finally have that big offensive breakout that we've been expecting for that last few years. Although TE's don't usually do well in Martz's offense, he has gone on the record as saying he will utilize Davis' athleticism, to make him a major weapon in the offense. Davis isn't a sure thing, but he's buzzing with confidence right now and could have a big year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 rec, 700 yards, 8 TD's
(Photo by Kathy Willens / AP)
7. Dallas Clark - Dallas Clark may have looked like Clark Kent between the 20's, but inside the red zone, he made some Super catches and hauled down 11 TD's last year. With all the weapons the Colts have, Clark tends to be the forgotten man this offense. Even though he may not be faster than a locomotive, he can catch Peyton's speeding bullets and figures to catch more this year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 60 rec, 600 yards, 7 TD's
8. Chris Cooley - Since coming into the NFL in 2004, he's been every Redskin quarterbacks' best friend. Despite all the changes at QB, Cooley's numbers have been pretty consistent. This year, though, may be his biggest challenge. New head coach, Jim Zorn, is leaning more towards a run-oriented offense and this could affect Cooley's numbers. Fantasy Factor Projection: 65 rec, 700 yards, 7 TD's
9. Heath Miller - Last year, Heath had career highs in all major categories and this upward trend in numbers will continue this year. And I'm not just saying that because I just happen to be wearing a Heath Miller jersey right now. With all the attention going to Holmes and Ward, Miller should be matched up against a linebacker, which is a very favorable matchup for him. Plus, if the Steelers running game struggles near the goaline again this year, Heath could catch a few more TD passes. I wouldn't expect huge numbers out of Miller, but 40-50 yards receiving and a TD is 10 points and that's pretty respectable out the TE position. Fantasy Factor Projection: 55 rec, 600 yards, 8 TD's
10. Owen Daniels - When Andre Johnson went down, the Texans had a huge gap in their receiving core. That gap was filled by big Owen Daniels. Daniels caught 63 passes for 768 yards last season and while those numbers seem really good for TE, he only caught 3 TD passes. If he can duplicate those numbers and catch about 5 more TD passes, he'll be in the top 5 next season. Fantasy Factor Projection: 60 rec, 650 yards, 6 TD's
Aug 15 2008
Ronnie Brown Questions:
After getting 4 questions the first week, I didn't receive any last week for Fantasy Friday. This past week though, I got a few questions and all regarding Ronnie Brown.
"Where should I draft him?" - Brown shouldn't be drafted in rounds 1-4. He is coming off ACL surgery and drafting him in one of the first four rounds is risky. There's really no way to tell how he'll play on this knee until he's actually on the field. It really depends on how much of risk taker you are. His knee could affect his performance all season, but on the other hand, he put up HUGE numbers before the injury and is more than capable of doing it again.
"Who would be a better pick, Ronnie Brown or Reggie Bush?" - As risky of a pick as Brown is, I would take him over Eric Metcalf: The Next Generation aka Reggie Bush. When Deuce McAllister was lost for the season in Week Three, Bush was given a golden opportunity to showcase his talent and show that he is capable of being a number one back in the NFL and he flopped. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry (157 carries) and averaged 5.7 yards per reception (73 receptions). For a guy that is supposed to explosive and exciting when he touches the ball, he certainly didn't show it last year.
"How is Ronnie's preseason looking right now?" - Well last Saturday, he got back into action carrying the ball 3 times for 4 yards against Tampa Bay. Not a great performance, but considering how fast he's recovered from this surgery, it was impressive that he was on the field at all. This Saturday against the Jags, Coach Sparano said Brown is going to be seeing more activity, so we should a more of an idea of where Ronnie stands then.
For those of you that are interested, I received this video from Robyn Ettinger, who works with numerous NFL and MLB athletes, that shows Ronnie Brown during the off season rehabbing his surgically repaired knee.
Percival out, Balfour In:
To all fantasy owners that are in desperate need of a closer, your prayers have been answered. Last night, TB Rays closer, Troy Percival sprained his knee while trying to field a bunt. Grant Balfour took over, but then blew the save. Don't look into this blown save too much, Balfour has been great all season coming out of the bullpen. He's sporting a 1.21 ERA and has an incredible 55 strikeouts in only 37.1 innings pitched. Balfour will step in as the first place Rays closer and has a lot of value going into the final stretch of the season. Its really unclear how long Percival will be out, but he won't be back before the postseason, so pick up Balfour right away knowing that he'll be a reliable source of saves for the rest of your fantasy season.
Aug 13 2008
Fast, cocky, arrogant, and full of themselves are ways to best describe most NFL wide receivers today. Gone, are the days of guys like Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Steve Largent, Lance Alworth and Art Monk. Today, it's all about making the big play, scoring a touchdown and having the right celebration dance. These might not be the type of players you want on your team, but they're the kind of players you need on your fantasy team. Last year, I was fortunate enough to draft both Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, neither of which I'm fond of, but they were invaluable members of my team. WR's are not critical to succeed in fantasy football, but having good ones can make things a lot easier for you. These are the guys that step up when your running back gets hurt or your QB has a bad game. Here are the Fantasy Factors top 15 wide receivers.
1. Terrell Owens - Since 2000, Owens has been the most consistent producer of fantasy points out of the wide receiver position. Each season, he racks up over 1000 yards and scores over 10 TD's. He's big, he's physical, he's fast, he wants the ball all the time and he actually seems to be pretty happy in Dallas. Owens and Romo have great chemistry and it will continue through this year. With other targets like Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten, plus the fact that they're going to take the leash off Marion Barber this year, this offense appears to be setup for a big year and Owens will be one of the players benefiting the most. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 15 TD's
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2. Randy Moss - "The Freak" had one of the best seasons in the history of the NFL last year. 98 receptions for 1493 yards and a record setting 23 TD receptions. After having such a great season, there's really only one way to go... down. With Donte Stallworth gone, there will be more attention on Moss this year and he'll see a lot of double coverage. However, even being double covered Moss should still see the ball plenty of times and get his fair share of TD's. So unless his post season was a precursor of things to come... Fantasy Factor Projection: 88 catches, 1300 yards, 13 TD's
3. Larry Fitzgerald - The best wide receiver to ever come out of Pitt, may one day be the best wide receiver in the history of the NFL. In two of his first 4 years in the league, Fitzgerald had over 100 receptions and double digits in TD's. To be that good, that fast, on a mediocre team, is astonishing. From Week Two through Week 14, Fitzgerald had at least 70 yards receiving. In that time he went over 120 yards three times and scored at least one TD in 7 of those games. His average receiving yards per game was above 90. Teams have been trying, since his years at Pitt, to figure out a way to stop him and have been unsuccessful. The only question mark surrounding him is which quarterback will be throwing him passes this year, Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner. I don't think it will really matter. As long as he stays healthy, he'll have another big year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 101 catches, 1500 yards, 14 TD's
4. Marques Colston - After having a stellar rookie season in 2006, Colston got off to a slow start in 2007. He only caught 26 passes in the first 7 weeks of the season, failed to reach the 100 yard mark in any of those games and scored a total of 2 TD's. Then came Week 8 against San Francisco and he was back to form faster than you could say "flash in the pan". Colston caught three touchdowns that week and his season really took off. He had over 90 yards receiving in 7 of his last 10 games and scored at least one touchdown in 5 of them. Needless to say, the man was a catching machine in the second half of the season. This year is shaping up to be a good one for Colston with addition of Jeremy Shockey that should really add to the Saints already potent offense. Fantasy Factor Projection: 102 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD's
5. Steve Smith - No, not the wide out on the New York Giants. Or the guy down the hall from me in the finance department. I'm talking about the speedy, uncoverable wide receiver of the Carolina Panthers who punched his own teammate in practice. It wasn't one of his better moments and neither was the 2007 season. After starting quarterback Jake the Snake Delhomme was lost for the season, Smith's season went downhill. Aside from a couple big reception / yardage games, Smith only scored 7 TD's and barely reached the 1000 yard mark (1002 yards). He won't score any TD's in his first two games this year either due to suspension. However, there is reason to be optimistic for Smith this year. Delhomme is back from his injury and ready to go, old teammate Muhsin Muhammad is back and the Panthers offense is looking very sharp so far this year. In 2005, he caught over 100 passes and scored 12 TD's and that was during a season when Smith was the only target in the offense. As long as he doesn't go punching any more teammates... Fantasy Factor Projection: 85 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TD's (14 games)
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
6. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - With Chad Johnson hogging the spotlight every chance he gets, the man with the last name that sounds like a question about someone's mother, quietly led the Bengals in receptions and TD's. Each year in the NFL, Houshmandzadeh has gotten better and better and shows no signs of slowing down. Maybe its because they don't want to see Johnson do some outlandish touchdown celebration, but TJ has caught more TD passes in the each of the last two years. Houshmandzadeh is a better receiver, period. If you're faced with the choice between the two, go with the better receiver, not with the better talker. Fantasy Factor Projection: 110 catches, 1300 yards, 15 TD's
7. Andre Johnson - One of the NFL's best kept secrets plays in the black hole known as the Houston Texans franchise. Last season, Johnson caught 60 passes for 851 yards and 8 TD's. That sounds respectable until you see that he only played in 9 games. Playing in the tough AFC South division though, Johnson will get matched up against pretty good teams but as ridiculous as it sounds, that could be a good thing. The Texans will get behind in games and be forced to throw the ball a lot. Johnson could really clean up then. Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD's
8. Braylon Edwards - Last year, Edwards, like a lot of Brownies, had a breakout year last year. The former third overall pick from Michigan is starting to live up to his potential and is doing it in a big way. Last year, Edwards finished second in touchdown receptions with 16. This past off season, the Browns acquired another target for Anderson in Donte Stallworth but I believe he'll stick with his go to guy. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 catches, 1300 yards, 11 TD's
9. Reggie Wayne - As the future Hall of Famer, Marvin Harrison, slows down, teammate Reggie Wayne has gotten faster and better. With Harrison on the shelf for most of last year, Wayne became Peyton's go to guy. He recorded career highs in receptions, yards and TD's (104, 1510, 10). This year though, with Harrison and Dallas Clark healthy again and Joseph Addai and Anthony Gonzalez in the passing mix, Wayne figures to be getting the ball less. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 11 TD's
10. Jerricho Cotchery - Another ripple effect from the Brett Favre trade is Jerricho Cotchery. Over the past couple years, Jerricho has posted some good numbers despite not really having a good quarterback to throw him the ball. With Favre behind center, he figures to have a career year and in my opinion is a great sleeper. This year, Cotchery will give all his Jerricholics a season they will never EEEEEEEVER forget a-gain! Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 catches, 1400 yards, 10 TD's
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
11. Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL since 2003. He's caught more than 86 passes every year since 2003 and scored between 7-10 TD's in each of those seasons. Johnson has always been a good receiver, but nobody, except himself, has considered him to be a great receiver. CJ may not be one of the best, but he would make a great fit on anyone's fantasy team. Don't listen to the hype though, draft based on numbers and performance, not hype and trash talk. Johnson is a third round pick at best. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TD's
12. Plaxico Burress - Love him or hate him, this past February, everyone outside the Boston area was a BIG Plaxico Burress fan. Plax, unlike a lot of the big name receivers isn't known for catching a lot of passes. In fact, the most receptions he's had in a year is only 78. Plax's ability to make big plays is what makes him so valuable. He's reached around 1000 yards and scored double digit TD's in each of the last two years. Eli and Plax have had great chemistry since they arrived in New York. Burress shouldn't be your first WR, but if he's your second or third you'll be in great shape. Fantasy Factor Projection: 75 catches, 1100 yards, 12 TD's
13. Torry Holt - Despite being part of the Greatest Show on Turf, it wasn't until after those years that Holt really excelled. Every year since 2002, Holt has caught over 90 passes and usually scored around 7-12 TD's. Holt has been slowing down, but not by much. Even without quarterback Marc Bulger for 4 games, Holt still put up nice numbers (93 rec, 1189 yds and 7 TD's). With Steven Action Jackson holding out, its really unclear how the Rams offense will fair this season, but one thing that is for sure, is that Holt will have another solid year and put up good fantasy numbers. Fantasy Factor Projection: 88 catches, 1100 yards, 8 TD's
14. Santonio Holmes - Like Plaxico, Holmes relies on big plays to get the big numbers. Holmes led the NFL in average yards per reception in 2007, but even with the Steelers opening up the offense, he only pulled down 52 passes. If the Steelers continue to open up the offense and let Ben throw more, Holmes could benefit in a big way, which makes him somewhat of a sleeper pick. Odds are the Steelers will run Parker and Mendenhall until their legs fall off, but even if that is the case Holmes still has pretty good fantasy value. Fantasy Factor Projection: 75 catches, 1200 yards, 10 TD's
15. Chris Chambers / Vincent Jackson - After how strong the Chargers passing game finished the postseason, one of these two receivers will have a big year. The question is, which one? Chambers, who was acquired in a trade mid season, didn't get into the flow of the Charger offense until the playoffs. A full year in this offense will be a big boost to his fantasy numbers. Vincent Jackson on the other hand did just as well in the playoffs and is said to be having a great camp. Its really tough to pick just one, but if I had my choice I'd go with Chambers. He's a little more proven than Jackson (82 rec, 1118 yds, 11 TD's in 05) and gets a lot of end zone looks from Rivers. Fantasy Factor Projection: Chambers 80 rec, 1000 yards, 13 TD's, Jackson 65 rec, 900 yards, 7 TD's.
X-Factors:
Brandon Marshall - This Pittsburgh native, finished the 2007 as the hottest receiver in football catching over 10 passes in 3 of his last 4 games with 3 TD's. Big things were expected of Marshall this year, but he showed up to camp looking out of shape and will miss the first three games of the season due to suspension. He has all the physical tools to be a great receiver someday, but his antics make him a risky pick.
(Photo by David Zalubowski)
Marvin Harrison - Typically Marvin would be found in the top 5 of wide receiver rankings, but at age 36 and coming off surgery to both knees, his value is up the in air. With a quarterback like Peyton Manning its hard to imagine Harrison not having, at the very least, a good season. But I wouldn't reach for him in drafts. He'd be great in the third receiver spot and risky in the second.
Anquan Boldin - Like his partner in crime, Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin benefited a lot from the change in quarterback from Leinart to Warner. With the quarterback situation up in the air again and Boldin is unhappy about not getting the contract extension he wanted, his value is really in question right now. If Warner is behind center and Boldin plays hard all season, he should have another great season.
As always feel free to post any questions or comments. If you don't already have a PG account, click here.
Aug 11 2008
The Reds completed the dismantling of their outfield Monday, after trading power hitter, Adam Dunn, to the D-Backs for a minor league pitcher and two players to be named later.
Adam Dunn to Diamondbacks:
This is a fantastic move for the offense hungry Arizona Diamondbacks. Adam Dunn is tied for the MLB lead in homeruns and will provide some much needed power to their lineup. His fantasy owners should see a slight increase in production, nothing too great. However in September, during the fantasy playoffs, Dunn will be playing against his former mates, the Reds and then has a three game series in the thin air of Colorado. This move should give Dunn owners a bit of a boost during your stretch run and heading in your post season, however I don't think it will do enough for the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers, with Manny Ramirez, will probably still overtake Arizona in the NL West race.
(Photo by Reuters Pictures)
Aug 08 2008
The fantasy football running back. Is there a more powerful player in the world of fantasy sports? Running backs are the only player that can contribute in pretty much all of its teams stats. He can run it, catch it and in some cases throw it for points. Running backs are most likely to score a touchdown than anyone else and that makes them invaluable. There's no such thing as having too many good running backs. Last year, in my draft league, I had McGahee, Gore, Peterson (Min), Ryan Grant, Chester Taylor, and Kolby Smith. If there were any other good ones available, I would have snatched them up too. These are the big guns of your team. Without a solid running game, you're going to struggle, no matter how good your QB and WR's are. Here are the Fantasy Factors' top running backs for 2008.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson - A lot of people have been asking me, "Hey Nick, who is your number one running back going into this season?" and without hesitation, I say two simple letters, "LT". "Even over Peterson?" they'd follow up. "Absolutely" and here's why. Tomlinson is the ultimate back. He can rack up fantasy points in a multitude of different ways. He gets 300 carries and consistently gets 1300 to 1800 yards per year. He has hit double digits in touchdowns every year of his professional career. He catches at least 50 passes out of the backfield each season. He's even thrown a couple TD passes. As if it couldn't get any better, the Chargers passing game has improved and their schedule is looking really soft at this point. If you draft him, you are the favorite to win your league. Peterson is a great runner, but Tomlinson is the total package and deserves the number one spot. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1700 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving, 22 TD total
2. Brian Westbrook - Does anyone need a player more than the Eagles need Brian Westbrook? Westbrook lead the team in rushing yards and receptions. He carried the ball 278 times and caught 90 passes last year. I can just imagine what the Eagles huddle must have been like; "Okay guys we're going to {flips coin} PASS the ball to Westbrook on this one". He was the whole show for the Eagles last year and probably will be again this year. This makes him extremely valuable and deserving of the number two spot behind LT. Even against tough defenses, Westbrook put up good numbers. 50 rushing, 50 receiving and a touchdown doesn't look like much, but in most formats that's 16 points. Even his bad games are valuable in fantasy football. The only cause for concern with Westbrook is injuries. He has yet to have an injury free season and because of this, some owners will avoid him in the first round. Considering how much work he got last year, it's a legitimate concern again, but if you always factor injuries into your draft strategy, you'd have a hard time picking anyone. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1400 yards rushing, 700 yards receiving, 17 TD total
3. Adrian Peterson - Nobody runs with the football better than the Minnesota Vikings' Purple Jesus, Adrian Peterson. His speed and ability to find and explode through the running lanes is something that hasn't been seen since the days of Barry Sanders. I'm not a big college football guy, but when he was a Sooner, I remember watching him and thinking, I need to keep tabs on him because he's going to be a big star with somebody some day. In last year's fantasy draft, I stuck to my guns, passed on Clinton Portis and drafted the rookie back. Needless to say, I wasn't regretting it. The Vikings don't have the best passing game in the world, but they do have the best offensive line and as long as they stay healthy and intact, Peterson should put together another great season. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1700 yards rushing, 15 TD
4. Frank Gore - Considering how high Gore was taken in fantasy drafts last year, his 2007 performance was a disappointment. The Niners never really got their offense rolling and Gore suffered the most. It wasn't until December that he started to emerge as a fantasy force. This year, Frank the Tank will be back. The Niners have a new offensive coordinator with Mike Martz and he will return to the fantasy running back elite status. Martz loves to use running backs and plans on using Gore the same way he used Marshall Faulk in St Louis. Playing in the NFC West division and playing against the soft AFC East this year, Gore could very easily get back to 2000 total yards like he did in 2006. This past off-season, Gore has slimmed down and is said to be looking fast and explosive. I really hate to draft the same player in the first round two years in a row, but in this case, I would have to make an exception. Gore is going to have a career Pro Bowl caliber year. If the guys above are taken, go with Gore in 08. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1600 yards rushing, 600 yards receiving, 17 TD total
5. Marion Barber - In the off-season, the Dallas Cowboys gained by losing. The loss of Julius Jones means that Marion Barber-shop of horrors is going to get fed the ball a lot more often. When he was splitting time, he still managed to get double digit touchdowns and almost hit 1000 yards last year. Just think of what this guy is capable of as the full time back. The Cowboys have the most complete offense in football and Barber will be the wrecking ball. This touchdown monster should have his best season yet. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1400 yards rushing, 20 TD
6. Steven Jackson - Action Jackson is another one of those backs that can do it all. In 2006, he ran for 1500 yards and caught for another 800 yards to go along with his 16 TD's. Jackson was a pre season favorite last year to win the league MVP, but all of this over use in 2006, led to an injury plagued 2007. However, Jackson, for the most part, battled through the injuries and still put together a pretty decent year and broke the 1000 yard mark in just 12 games. With lowered expectations and injury problems aside, Jackson is primed for another big year... assuming the Rams give him the big contract extension that he wants. As for right now, Jackson has been a no show at camp and neither side appears to be budging. This is obviously bad for Jackson owners or future owners. Let's face it, Jackson will be on the field for the Rams this year, probably by Week One, but missing camp will cause him to get off to a slow start and will affect his numbers. Assuming he's back by Week One... Fantasy Factor Projection: 1200 yards rushing, 600 receiving, 15 TD total
7. Jamal Lewis - Since leaving the team formerly known as the Browns, to go the team currently known as... the Browns, Jamal Lewis' expectations dropped. Even in his final years in Baltimore, nobody really expected anything out of him. While his "rushing for 2000 yards in a season" days are gone, his "1300 yards and 11 TD" days are still here. Lewis has been a pretty solid and consistent back and with all the attention on the Brownies passing game, Lewis should have more space than ever to run. Expect another good year out of Lewis. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1400 yards rushing, 13 TD
8. Joseph Addai - Last year, Addai got to be the main back in the Colts offense and his fantasy value skyrocketed. After getting off to a fast start Addai started to fade by Week 10 and was a non-factor by the playoffs. The Colts realized that Addai wasn't able to carry the load and brought back his former running mate, Dominic Rhodes. I still expect Addai to start, but only get 60-70 percent of the carries. While less carries could mean less points, I think this could keep Addai energized for the entire season and keep him a valuable member of your team, come fantasy football playoff time. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1200 yards rushing, 400 receiving, 15 TD
9. Thomas Jones - After just scoring ONE rushing touchdown last season, things were bound to get better. Honestly, they really couldn't get much worse. The Jets went out and rebuilt their offensive line and acquired Brett Favre in a trade. The only way things could get easier for Jones would be if he was allowed to drive a truck on the field. These fortunate turn of events has made Jones a big time sleeper pick in fantasy leagues. He's setup to play against a lot of soft run defenses this year and I would go as far as to say this could be a pro bowl season for Jones. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1500 yards rushing, 10 TD
10. Marshawn Lynch - The lone bright spot on the Buffalo Bills season last year will most likely be the lone bright spot again. As a rookie and focal point of the offense, Lynch still managed to rack up over 1100 yards rushing and score 7 TD's. If the Bills could develop any semblance of a passing game, Lynch could really take off. But until then he'll have to continue to plow his way through seven and eight man fronts. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1200 yards rushing, 12 TD
11. Willie Parker - In 2007, Fast Willie was running towards his first NFL rushing title. Then against the Rams, he injured his knee and was lost for the season. With the Steelers offense becoming more wide open, there's little reason to believe Parker won't be near the top of the rushing ranks again this year. The big knock against Willie is his lack of touchdowns. Sure, he burns it up between the 20's, but the big points in fantasy football are in the end zone, a place Willie made it to only twice last year. With first round pick, Rashard Mendenhall coming into the mix, Parker looks to get even less carries near the goaline. However, Coach Tomlin has not yet dismissed using Parker at the goaline after Mendenhall had a less than spectacular performance in his first goaline drill. Plus, let's keep in mind, Parker did score 13 TD's in 2006. I think that if the Steelers have Parker sprint to the pylon instead of pounding it up the middle on the one yard line, he'll get there before any defender does. If Willie can hold off Mendenhall this year, he should once again be a good fantasy option. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1200 yards rushing, 8 TD
12. Clinton Portis - This former first round stud will continue to carry the load for the Redskins in the Jim Zorn era. He's been Mr. Reliable for many fantasy owners over the years scoring over 10 TD's in 4 of his 6 years in the league and breaking the 1000 yard mark every except 2006 due to injury. Portis won't be the league MVP, but he will continue to put up good numbers for his owners. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1100 yards rushing, 10 TD
13. Ryan Grant - It was Week 8 before anyone even knew who Ryan Grant was. By Week 17, he was the hottest runner in the NFL and swaying the balance of power in fantasy leagues everywhere. In the final 10 games of the season, Grant ran for 956 yards and scored 8 TD's. In his first playoff game, he ran for over 200 yards and 3 TD's against the Seahawks. So why is he ranked so low on this list? For the same reason Thomas Jones is so high on this list... Brett Favre. With other teams game planning to shut down Favre, Grant had lots of room to run. This year will be a little bit tougher with A-Rod the quarterback at the helm. Grant should still have a good season and will perform well no matter who's playing QB, but don't expect the pace from last year to continue. Fantasy Factor Projection: 1200 yards rushing, 8 TD
(Photo by Morry Gash / AP)
14. Willis McGahee / Ray Rice - With the addition of Cam Cameron to the Ravens coaching staff, Willis McGahee's value skyrockets. Cameron has done wonders with running backs (LT and Ronnie Brown) in the past. Now he gets to work with Willis McGahee... maybe. I would have McGahee ranked much higher if it wasn't for the fact that he's currently injured and the Ravens coaching staff loves what they see in rookie running back, Ray Rice. You are going to want to have the Ravens starting RB, but its uncertain just who that is right now. My strategy for this, draft McGahee in the third or fourth, maybe fifth depending on how your draft is going, then get Rice after you fill all of your starters. As a Pitt guy, I know all about Ray Rice and what he can do. While playing for Rutgers 06, he ran for 1794 yards and 20 TD's. In 07, he ran for 2012 yards and 24 TD's. This guy is a monster and could potentially be this year's Adrian Peterson. Fantasy Factor Projection for McGahee: 1100 yards rushing, 8 TD ; Rice 900 yards rushing, 9 TD
15. Maurice Jones-Drew - Over past two years, MJD has been a fantasy football favorite. Any why not? All he does is score TD's. Despite getting limited carries, Jones-Drew has always had a high TD total (15 TD's in 06, 9 in 07). Unfortunately for his owners, Right Said Fred Taylor has been too good and stands in MJD's way of reaching his full potential. Once Taylor is done his turn in the backfield, Jones-Drew will take over but Taylor has had a history of injuries and he's almost 33, which in running back years is old. Should Taylor get injured Jones-Drews' future would be now and with him getting 20-25 carries per game, he could be a top 5 back. MJD is a great blend of speed and power and is great receiver out of the backfield. He has all the tools to be a complete RB like LT or Westbrook. Fantasy Factor Projection: In current role, 1000 rushing yards, 400 receiving yards, 10 TD's
X-Factors:
Darren McFadden - Not a lot of things worked for the Raiders last year, but one thing did and that was the running game. Behind Lamont Jordan, Justin Fargas and Dominic Rhodes the Raiders finished fourth in the AFC in rushing. Wanting to get away from the running back by committee, they drafted highly touted running back, Darren McFadden with the fourth overall pick. Run DMC figures to be the starter at some point this season, just like JaMarcus Russell last year. The difference is McFadden will be starting before Week 16. The Raiders play a lot of soft run defenses this year and if he's the starter sooner rather than later, he could run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Pay close attention to what he does in camp. If he starts, get him now.
(Photo by Ben Margot / AP)
Ronnie Brown - Before tearing his ACL, Brown was having a spectacular season with the Dolphins. In just seven games, he amassed 602 rushing yards, 389 receiving and 5 TD's. Brown is the projected starter going into camp, but I'm not completely sold on the idea that his knee problems are behind him. Plus, Ricky Williams is back and feeling very motivated. Brown is a risky pick, but considering the numbers he's capable of putting up, he might be worth it.
Rashard Mendenhall - The Steelers number one draft pick is looking to fill the Jerome Bettis role as the goaline back. Its still too early to tell what role he'll play, if he'll split carries with Parker or if he'll just get a few carries a game. Best case scenario for Mendenhall, he splits carries with Parker and is the goaline back. Most experts are projecting this role for him and if that does happen we're looking at an 800 yard, 10 TD season.
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