Fantasy Baseball Second Half

Hello and welcome to the first post of the Fantasy Factor blog.  The days of having to wait till Friday to talk Fantasy Sports are over.  Feel free to write messages or make comments for any roster questions you may have during the week for football, baseball and hockey.

The marathon that is the fantasy baseball season is now half over and for the most part we have a pretty good idea of who is for real and who is a fluke.  Josh Hamilton went undrafted in many fantasy leagues this past March, despite hitting over 400 in spring training.  Those of you that took my advice back then are reaping the rewards and can look forward to watching this fantasy monster pursue   Hack Wilson's RBI record of 191.  Hamilton; however, is still only on pace for 158 RBI's, so despite having an MVP first half, he'll need to be even better if he's going to break that seemingly, untouchable record.  Playing in Texas' hitter friendly ballpark will help him get around 150 RBI's and 45 homeruns.  Not too shabby for a guy you probably picked up off waivers or late in a draft.

On the other side of the spectrum, Prince Fielder went very high in most fantasy leagues and can anyone be blamed for taking in the first or second rounds?  Who wouldn't want a 50 homerun guy on a young team that keeps getting better and better?  My preseason projection for the "first baseman currently known as Prince" was 54 homers and over 140 RBI's.  However Fielder got off to a slow start and is now projected to end with 32 homers and less than a 100 RBI's.  Not exactly first round material. But before you pull out your torches and show up at my front door, Fielder has been swinging the bat a lot better lately.  He has hit 8 homers in just the month of June alone and has 15 RBI's in 18 games this month.  I expect Fielder to be a big player in the Brew Crew's drive to make the playoffs and an even bigger player during your league's fantasy playoffs.  He should finish with 40 homers and over 110 RBI's.

Here are some other players I expect to have a big second half:

Raul Ibanez - In years past he was been an RBI machine, however with the Mariners sinking further and further to the bottom of the AL, Ibanez is a hot topic in trade rumors.  With Moises Alou going down for the rest of the season with a bad hamstring, the Mets are in need of a solid outfielder and Ibanez would be more than adequate plus he would get some big numbers in that lineup.  He'll finish with over 100 RBI's and around 25 homers with a average beyond 300.
 
Rich Harden - The Peter Forsberg of Major League Baseball minus the diving.  A great talent that has all the tools to be the best in his sport, the only problem is he seems to have a long term contract with the injury bug.  This, of course, makes Harden a big risk, however the reward is definitely worth the risk.  In his first start as a Chicago Cub, Harden struck out 10 batters in just 5.1 innings.  In his second start, he struck out another 10 and only gave up one hit.  That's domination, and if he can stay healthy, he will be the best pitcher in the NL.

Randy Johnson - I'm as surprised to write this as you are to read it, but you can't argue with the results.  Yes, his ERA is 4.89 and he's only 7-7, but what can't be ignored is his strikeouts to walks ratio (99:29).  The forty four year old lefty can still mow down hitters and has a lot of value on fantasy baseball teams.  He shouldn't be your number one or two starter, but he's a great option beyond that.  His control and overall performances have been improving over the last month as well.  However, if you're still worried about the whole ERA thing, just pick up a good middle reliever like Brad Ziegler(OAK), Jose Arredondo(LAA) or Grant Balfour(TB) to help off set any bad outings.

(Photo by Nick Doan/Getty Images)

 
Now for the players that will decline in the second half:

Miguel Tejada - The former AL MVP was looking like a contender for this year's NL MVP award in April after batting .339 and racking up 22 RBI's in 28 games.  However, since then, his batting average has plummeted to .291 in May, 227 in June and is sporting a .197 average this month.  Things really can't get much worse and his numbers should go up a little bit, but don't expect to see the same guy you saw in April.  You'll be much better off getting a more consistent contact hitting shortstop.

Conor Jackson - Another player with a big start and tailed off as the season went on.  His hitting is still there, but his power numbers are way down.  Jackson had 24 RBI's in April, but has only 27 RBI's in the last three months combined.

Kosuke Fukudome - The NL All Star with the last name that sounds like a Japanese Dome, got off to a fast start batting over .300 and racking up runs and RBI's like it was nothing.  However since then, Fukudome has dropped faster than a bad guy in a Bruce Lee movie.  So far this month he's batting .194 with only 2 RBI's.  Lou Piniella has even been quoted as saying "he's swinging awfully tired".  As of yesterday, Fukudome was dropped to sixth in the lineup.  Now would be as good of a time as any to trade him.  He was on the all star team, so you should still be able to get something in return for him, but it won't be long before its well known that Fukudome is Fuku-done.

The trades of CC Sabathia and Rich Harden have already made an impact and there's only one week to go till the trading deadline.  As the trades go, so will this blog, to show what impact these trades will have on their teams and on yours.