Jul 31 2008
The unthinkable nightmare that Pirate fans have been dreading became a reality in the final minutes of baseball's trading deadline. The heart and soul of the team, Jason Bay was a part of a blockbuster trade involving three teams, the Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox.
Jason Bay to Red Sox:
The best baseball player in Pittsburgh over the last four years is now going to guard the Green Monster of Fenway Park. The Red Sox get rid of the distraction that was Manny Ramirez and get a solid power hitter to take his place. Like his former teammate, Xavier Nady, Bay will get a boost when he gets injected into that powerful Red Sox lineup. In most leagues, Bay is probably already on someone's team. However, in salary cap leagues, now might be a good time to jump on him. With guys like Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, and Manny Ramirez in the LF position, Bay tends to be the forgotten man which in turn drives down his price. If you need an upgrade in another position and could use a couple bucks, try trading in your current LF for Bay. His homerun numbers will probably take a hit playing in Fenway for obvious reasons, but his batting average, RBI's and runs should all increase. This is a great trade for Bay owners and for Red Sox fans in general.
(Photo by Gene J. Puskar/AP)
Manny Ramirez to Dodgers:
Ever since Gary Sheffield left the Dodgers in 2002 they really haven't had a big bat in the middle of their lineup that can rack up a lot of RBI's. Today, that problem has been solved. Enter Manny Ramirez. Manny has been an RBI machine since breaking into the league in 1994. He has gone over 140 RBI's three times and over 120 RBI's six times. Over past couple years, Manny has slowed down a bit, mostly due to injuries, but I have a strong feeling that he'll be a big contributor for the Dodgers in their pursuit of the NL West crown. Like Bay, his homerun numbers will probably take a hit while playing at the spacious Dodger Stadium, but his RBI's will continue to roll in fast and should be a strong candidate, to be the second half MVP. Also just as a heads up for Ramirez owners in head to head leagues, the Dodgers play in hitter friendly Colorado and pitcher challenged Pittsburgh in mid September... right in the middle of the fantasy baseball playoffs.
Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris to Pirates:
That's a lot of names, but not exactly a lot of talent. Pittsburgh continues to be the spot where other teams dump the prospects they no longer want. Hansen has an ERA over five and his WHIP (Walks, Hits, Inning Pitched) is 1.70. I read that he can throw up to 97 mph, but if he can't get it over the plate, its not really helpful. Maybe he's just having problems seeing the plate. We could get him some Ricky Vaughn skull and crossbones glasses. Brandon Moss is the only one to be somewhat optimistic about. He's posted some pretty solid numbers in AAA and decent numbers with the Sox. He should get playing time immediatley and have some value in NL only leagues. Andy LaRoche, who I'm guessing is here only because his brother plays here, doesn't have any value in any league format. Bryan Morris, a promising young pitcher, will be sent to the minors.
Jul 31 2008
Pending MLB approval, future hall of fame outfielder, Ken Griffey Jr, has been dealt from the Reds to the AL central division leading Chicago White Sox in exchange for Nick Masset and Danny Richar.
Ken Griffey Jr to White Sox:
The White Sox respond to the Angels blockbuster trade with a blockbuster of their own. The White Sox who currently lead the AL in homeruns have added one of the greatest homerun hitters of all time to their lineup in the form of Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey, who has been having one of his worst seasons statistically, should do better in White Sox lineup. Junior is appearing on a lot of waiver wires in fantasy leagues and depending on who you have in your outfield right now, he could provide a big lift. Every year since 2002, he has appeared in my fantasy outfield and I can't say that I regretted it. He didn't put up numbers like he did in the late 90's, but if you can get 25-30 homers and 70-95 RBI's from your third outfield position, that's huge. Griffey isn't the mega star he was, but he's a great depth guy to have and sometimes its your depth guys that can win you a championship.
The only thing to look out for, is who are the White Sox going to sit? I'm willing to bet, its going to be Paul Konerko. Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin aren't going anywhere and Jim Thome is going to stay in the DH spot. So that leaves Konerko and Nick Swisher. Even though Swisher is only batting .230 and has average power numbers, Konerko is even worse. Granted he has had a lot of success in previous seasons, but aside from April, Konerko has been dreadful this year and will find a spot on the bench, at least temporarily while Swisher move to firstbase. Griffey owners or future owners shouldn't worry about your guy finding a spot in the lineup.
(Photo by Damian Strohmeyer/SI)
Jul 31 2008
In case you missed it last night, I was a guest star on a national radio talk show, "Talking Baseball Live" with Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco. It was my first time on the radio and I can honestly say I had fun doing it and will hopefully get the opportunity to do it again in the future. Lenny and Paul both are hardcore baseball addicts and it was an honor to be on the show with them.
On the trade front, one of the greatest homerun hitters of all time, Ken Griffey Jr, could be headed to the White Sox. The deal just requires Griffey's approval before being completed. You may want to pick Griffey up off your waiver wire now. This is one of those times where it would be smart to jump the gun.
Jul 30 2008
The Yankees pulled the trigger on another deal less than 24 hours before the deadline by acquiring Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez from the Tigers for reliever Kyle Farnsworth.
Ivan Rodriguez to Yankees:
This deal won't really help Pudge's fantasy value. He moves from one juggernaut lineup to another, so his numbers should be about the same from here on out. However, as I had mentioned on Fantasy Baseball Talk Live, this move will increase the value of the Yankees pitchers. Pudge has worked wonders with young pitchers. He helped backstop the Marlins young pitching staff in their victory over the Yankees in 2003 World Series. He worked the same magic with the young Tigers pitching staff in 2006 as they beat the Yankees in the ALDS. So if there's any team that knows what Pudge can do for a young staff, its the Yankees. With the Mariners playing hard to get with Jarrod Washburn, the Yankees will need to turn to their young pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, so this move will play right into the Yankees hands.
Kyle Farnsworth to Tigers:
The Tigers need help in the bullpen. Todd Jones has lost his closer job, Fernado Rodney is shaky at best, and Joel Zumaya is struggling a bit as well. This move makes great sense for the Tigers. Brandon Inge can take over the catching duties and they get a quality reliever that could very well become the closer. Farnsworth's value increases with this move and will skyrocket if he does become the closer.
Jul 29 2008
The team with the best record in baseball just got better. The Angels today acquired switch hitting first baseman, Mark Teixeira in exchange for promising young first baseman, Casey Kotchman and minor league pitcher Steve Marek.
Mark Teixeira to Angels:
Teixeira is one of the more consistent hitters in the game today. His power numbers have always been pretty solid (30+ HR's and over 100 RBI's in 4 straight seasons) and is a career .286 hitter. This trade could put the Angels over the top in the post season and get them into the World Series. This is a great move for Teixeira owners. The Braves are out of it, while the Angels will be in this till the end. He enjoyed his best seasons while playing in the AL and should get a slight boost in his numbers while playing for the Halos. He's currently on pace for 31 homers and 120 RBI, but now I would project his numbers will be slightly higher. Probably around 38 homers and 130 RBI's.
(Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images)
Casey Kotchman to Braves:
Kotchman, while not as good as Teixeira, is still a pretty solid first baseman. He is a great contact hitter that will rack up 100 RBI's and get around 15-20 homers a year. This is a pretty good deal for Kotchman owners as well. In Anaheim, Kotchman was batting second and wasn't really getting a lot of opportunities to knock in some runs, however that's going to change in Atlanta. I expect him to take Teixeira's spot in the three slot and have a lot more RBI situations than before. Kotchman should finish with around 15 homers and 95-100 RBI's.
Jul 29 2008
Just as a heads up, tomorrow (7/30) at 8pm EST, your fantasy sports expert will be a guest on Fantasy Baseball Live with Paul Greco. Fantasy Baseball Live is the longest running Fantasy Baseball Talk Show on Blog Talk Radio. If you miss the show, not to worry, all shows are archived.
With the trade deadline two days away be sure to check back here for trade analysis and how this trade may affect your fantasy league.
Jul 25 2008
Well the Pirates had a solid outfield. The key word being "had". In the middle of tonight's game against the Padres, the Pirates shipped off the X-man, Xavier Nady along with current closer Damaso Marte to the NY Yankees for three guys (Jose Tabata, George Kontos and Phil Coke) that probably won't even appear in fantasy league waiver wires and a guy that you shouldn't even think about picking up (Ross Ohlendorf). Marte's value takes a big hit. He goes from being a closer to just a middle reliever or setup man for Mariano Rivera. Nady's value on the other hand is going to skyrocket as his bat gets added to an already powerful Yankees lineup. With Matsui possibly on the shelf for the season and Melky Cabrera struggling, Nady should get a lot playing time. Scan your waiver wire and pick him up if he's available. He'd be a great second or third outfielder or a good fit for your utility/DH spot.
(Photo by Brian Kersey/AP)
Jul 25 2008
Does the first non Fantasy Friday have you down? Not to worry. I came across this article by Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune and his picks for baseball's midseason awards are just a tad off the mark. So I've decided to give out my own first half awards from a fantasy perspective.
NL MVP - Lance Berkman
This switch hitting lumberjack is fourth in batting average, fifth in RBI's and second in runs scored in the National League. In May, Berkman batted .471 and had an on base percentage of .553. No, he's not exactly helped the Astros as they are currently 13.5 games out of first, however he's helped many fantasy teams get to or be near the top of the standings. In one of my chats earlier this year, I mentioned that Berkman is a must own in salary cap leagues if you want to have a shot at a championship. With speedsters like Matsui and Bourn ahead of him and an RBI monster like Carlos Lee behind him, Berkman should continue on his tear for the remainder of the season.
AL MVP - Josh Hamilton
In case you missed my post yesterday, Josh Hamilton is the best player in the league. He has 10 more RBI's than anyone else in baseball, he's batting over .300, is near the top in homeruns. The guy is a superstar in the making. In fantasy drafts over the next few years, the hot topic will be who will go first, Pujols, A-Rod or Hamilton. He won't be the waiver wire steal he was this year. If you have him, be happy, you just pulled one of the biggest heists in fantasy sports history.
NL Cy Young Award - Brandon Webb
Nope, not Johan Santana like everyone was thinking back in March. Webb has been spectacular for the D-Backs in the first half of the season. The month of June was not so kind to him, however going into the month of June, Webb had already amassed 10 wins. So far this month, Webb appears to be back on track only allowing 3 earned runs in his last three games combined (21 innings). Sitting at 13-4, its hard to imagine Webb not getting to 20.
AL Cy Young Award - Cliff Lee
How could anyone honestly not pick him as the best pitcher in the AL in the first half? Get out your microscopes for this one. In April, Lee's ERA was 0.96 and walked only 2 batters while racking up 32 K's. Right now, Lee is 13-2 with the second best ERA in baseball and he's doing this while playing for the last place Indians. Lee is the Hamilton of pitchers for this years' fantasy season.
Biggest Fantasy Surprise - Carlos Quentin
Now lets be honest, how many people even knew this guy existed coming into this season? Quentin had never played more than 81 games in a season for Arizona and was basically just a backup OF. This year, Quentin is leading the high powered Chi Sox offense in homers, RBI's and runs. What?! This guy is like the Kurt Warner of baseball, coming out of nowhere and playing like an MVP. Maybe he's just on a really long hot streak, but for the owners that figured "hey, I think I'll give this guy a try" or "I'll just hold onto him till he cools down", I say, well played.
Biggest Fantasy Flop - Jeff Francoeur
This was the year. This was the year Jeff Francoeur was going to take the next step, rise to the next level. This was the year he was going to be a consistent solid producer in the Braves lineup. This was going to be the year people could put him in their fantasy lineups and not have to worry about him producing. Francoeur was going to be the One to save Zion from the machines. Well maybe not that last one, but after two consecutive seasons of solid hitting, this was the year people were expecting him to be an MVP candidate. It didn't happen. In fact, Francoeur even spent some time in the minors. Right now, the Braves can't even give him away. But before you put him on the Do Not Touch List for next year, let's remember it IS just one year. He is a talented hitter and I think the pressure to be this great MVP caliber hitter got into his head. With no expectations tied to him for next year, he could have a very solid bounce back year and get back to 20 homers and 100 RBI.
Next Friday, I hope we have a Fantasy Friday post, but that all depends on the Fantasy Factor faithful. Please send me your questions using the contact button in the upper left hand corner of the page. I will reply to you as soon as I can via email and post your questions and my response on Friday.
Jul 24 2008
Hello and welcome to the first post of the Fantasy Factor blog. The days of having to wait till Friday to talk Fantasy Sports are over. Feel free to write messages or make comments for any roster questions you may have during the week for football, baseball and hockey.
The marathon that is the fantasy baseball season is now half over and for the most part we have a pretty good idea of who is for real and who is a fluke. Josh Hamilton went undrafted in many fantasy leagues this past March, despite hitting over 400 in spring training. Those of you that took my advice back then are reaping the rewards and can look forward to watching this fantasy monster pursue Hack Wilson's RBI record of 191. Hamilton; however, is still only on pace for 158 RBI's, so despite having an MVP first half, he'll need to be even better if he's going to break that seemingly, untouchable record. Playing in Texas' hitter friendly ballpark will help him get around 150 RBI's and 45 homeruns. Not too shabby for a guy you probably picked up off waivers or late in a draft.
On the other side of the spectrum, Prince Fielder went very high in most fantasy leagues and can anyone be blamed for taking in the first or second rounds? Who wouldn't want a 50 homerun guy on a young team that keeps getting better and better? My preseason projection for the "first baseman currently known as Prince" was 54 homers and over 140 RBI's. However Fielder got off to a slow start and is now projected to end with 32 homers and less than a 100 RBI's. Not exactly first round material. But before you pull out your torches and show up at my front door, Fielder has been swinging the bat a lot better lately. He has hit 8 homers in just the month of June alone and has 15 RBI's in 18 games this month. I expect Fielder to be a big player in the Brew Crew's drive to make the playoffs and an even bigger player during your league's fantasy playoffs. He should finish with 40 homers and over 110 RBI's.
Here are some other players I expect to have a big second half:
Raul Ibanez - In years past he was been an RBI machine, however with the Mariners sinking further and further to the bottom of the AL, Ibanez is a hot topic in trade rumors. With Moises Alou going down for the rest of the season with a bad hamstring, the Mets are in need of a solid outfielder and Ibanez would be more than adequate plus he would get some big numbers in that lineup. He'll finish with over 100 RBI's and around 25 homers with a average beyond 300.
Rich Harden - The Peter Forsberg of Major League Baseball minus the diving. A great talent that has all the tools to be the best in his sport, the only problem is he seems to have a long term contract with the injury bug. This, of course, makes Harden a big risk, however the reward is definitely worth the risk. In his first start as a Chicago Cub, Harden struck out 10 batters in just 5.1 innings. In his second start, he struck out another 10 and only gave up one hit. That's domination, and if he can stay healthy, he will be the best pitcher in the NL.
Randy Johnson - I'm as surprised to write this as you are to read it, but you can't argue with the results. Yes, his ERA is 4.89 and he's only 7-7, but what can't be ignored is his strikeouts to walks ratio (99:29). The forty four year old lefty can still mow down hitters and has a lot of value on fantasy baseball teams. He shouldn't be your number one or two starter, but he's a great option beyond that. His control and overall performances have been improving over the last month as well. However, if you're still worried about the whole ERA thing, just pick up a good middle reliever like Brad Ziegler(OAK), Jose Arredondo(LAA) or Grant Balfour(TB) to help off set any bad outings.
(Photo by Nick Doan/Getty Images)
Now for the players that will decline in the second half:
Miguel Tejada - The former AL MVP was looking like a contender for this year's NL MVP award in April after batting .339 and racking up 22 RBI's in 28 games. However, since then, his batting average has plummeted to .291 in May, 227 in June and is sporting a .197 average this month. Things really can't get much worse and his numbers should go up a little bit, but don't expect to see the same guy you saw in April. You'll be much better off getting a more consistent contact hitting shortstop.
Conor Jackson - Another player with a big start and tailed off as the season went on. His hitting is still there, but his power numbers are way down. Jackson had 24 RBI's in April, but has only 27 RBI's in the last three months combined.
Kosuke Fukudome - The NL All Star with the last name that sounds like a Japanese Dome, got off to a fast start batting over .300 and racking up runs and RBI's like it was nothing. However since then, Fukudome has dropped faster than a bad guy in a Bruce Lee movie. So far this month he's batting .194 with only 2 RBI's. Lou Piniella has even been quoted as saying "he's swinging awfully tired". As of yesterday, Fukudome was dropped to sixth in the lineup. Now would be as good of a time as any to trade him. He was on the all star team, so you should still be able to get something in return for him, but it won't be long before its well known that Fukudome is Fuku-done.
The trades of CC Sabathia and Rich Harden have already made an impact and there's only one week to go till the trading deadline. As the trades go, so will this blog, to show what impact these trades will have on their teams and on yours.