Sep 04 2008
After suffering through 5 long football-less months and 1 long boring preseason, the start of the NFL season is finally here! The season starts with the defending Super Bowl champions battling their division rivals from the nations capital. Sounds exciting, but just the sound of Giants vs Redskins makes me want to fall asleep. I don't know what it is, but I can't stand it when the NFC East plays against itself. Giants and Redskins, Redskins and Giants, Giants and Eagles, Eagles and Giants, Eagles and Redskins... blah! I can handle the Cowboys; they have exciting players to watch, but the rest of the division. UGH! At least when Sunday comes I have won't have to worry about being forced to watch this game in hopes of seeing highlights of others.
Each week the Fantasy Factor will break down the matchups of each NFL game. I'll give a brief summary of each team going into the game and who I think will be the best fantasy option for each of them. These players will be referred to as the Fantasy Factors. Each Fantasy Factor will have a rating number 1-10, with one being the lowest and ten being the highest.
Here is your match up by match up fantasy preview of Week One in the NFL:
Washington Redskins vs New York Giants
Redskins: If you're a big Clinton Portis fan or just happened to draft him high in your draft, this will be an exciting game for you. The Giants and their fans will be charged for the home opener, but once everybody settles in and the game gets going, the Redskins offense led by Portis will walk over the G-Men.
Giants: I don't see anyone really sticking out on this roster and having a big day. Jacobs will approach 100 yards and probably get a TD, but I don't expect much from Manning. Plaxico is also questionable for the game.
Fantasy Factor: Clinton Portis (7), Brandon Jacobs (6)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Bengals: It's really unclear at this point who Palmer will be throwing to, but one thing is for sure, he will be throwing a lot. The Ravens, despite having a poor record last year, had the best run defense in the AFC. All of you that are jumping on the Chris Perry bandwagon because he was named the starter should bench him, even if it's for just one week.
Ravens: Willis McGahee is still scheduled to start, but he's not 100 percent, so I think we'll be seeing most of the carries going to rookie Ray Rice. With the Bengals poor run defense, Rice should really excel and if he's still sitting on your waiver wire, he won't be after this week.
Fantasy Factor: Chad Ocho Cinco (7), Ray Rice (7)
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
Jets: The Dolphins had one of the poorest defenses in the league last year and the Jets are probably the most improved offense in football. Favre, Jones, Cotchery, Coles are all good plays against the Phins.
Dolphins: We're still unsure how healthy Ronnie Brown is and my guess is that they'll ease him into the offense with Ricky Williams getting the lion share of carries. Chad Pennington will want to show his old team he still has it and Ted Ginn Jr figures to play a big part in that revenge.
Fantasy Factors: Thomas Jones (8), Ted Ginn Jr (8)
Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots
Chiefs: Things are going to get worse before they get better. The Chiefs finished last season with 9 straight losses. As a result, they get to play the defending AFC champion (not NFL champion hehe), New England Patriots. Lucky them. Larry Johnson will be the best source of fantasy points, but I don't see him doing anything on the road against an angry Patriots squad.
Patriots: The big weapons on this team will get a 5th exhibition to hone their skills. Brady doesn't really need a preseason to warm up for the Chiefs.
Fantasy Factors: Tom Brady (10), Larry Johnson (5)
Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Texans: I understand that the Texans have made some big strides in the past few years, but they're playing the Steelers at Heinz field in their home opener. Ummmm... no. Andre Johnson will be the best player for them in this matchup since they'll need to throw a lot in the second half.
Steelers: Lots of good options to like here. Ben should have a solid first game, Fast Willie will run all over the Texans and probably even score a couple of times. Santonio figures to be Ben's go to guy this year and should probably come away with at least one TD.
Fantasy Factors: Willie Parker (10), Andre Johnson (9)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
Jaguars: The Titans have a very strong run defense with Albert Haynesworth leading the way. David Garrard will need to be the man in this one. Also, the minds of the Jaguar player may be elsewhere after the recent shooting of lineman, Richard Collier.
Titans: LenDale White and Chris Johnson figure to be the most valuable players on this offense this season, but going against the Jags defense will affect their value this week. This could be a big Rob Bironas game.
Fantasy Factors: David Garrard (7), Rob Bironas (8)
Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons
Lions: Fortunately in Week One, the Lions are playing a team that is just as awful as they are. The Falcons are not very good against the pass and that should help Kitna, Williams and Johnson put up some big numbers through the air in this one.
Falcons: The Falcons are expected to be a run heavy offense and with two fast RB's like Turner and Norwood and the absence of Shaun Rodgers in the Lions defensive line, this will be a HUGE ground game for the Falcons. Lions through the air and Falcons through the ground?
Fantasy Factors: Jon Kitna (8), Michael Turner (9)
Seattle Seahawks vs Buffalo Bills
Seahawks: The reigning NFC West champs will open up against a team that could be a surprise this year. Matt Hasselbeck will play Week 1 despite his injury problems through pre season. Plus the Seahawks will get their first look at their RB committee of Maurice Morris, Julius Jones and TJ Duckett. The Seahawks fierce defense figures to give Trent Edwards fits in this one.
Bills: As always Marshawn Lynch will be the focal point of the oppositions defense. Trent Edwards will need to make a big impact fast or no one on the Bills will make any impact.
Fantasy Factors: Matt Hasselbeck (7), Marshawn Lynch (6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
Buccaneers: It may not be Brett Favre under center, but this Sunday you won't be able to tell the difference between him and Jeff Garcia. Garcia and even Luke McNown lit up the Saints secondary in both meetings last year. The backfield may not be completely sorted out at this point, but it won't matter in this one.
Saints: Unless Bush, McAllister, Stecker or Thomas can step it up for the Saints, Brees will be throwing a lot in this one. Not exactly a position he wants to be in, but he will rack up a lot of yards and should throw 2-3 TD's.
Fantasy Factors: Jeff Garcia (8), Drew Brees (8)
St. Louis Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles
Rams: Steven Jackson has reported to the team and all is well in Ram world. The only problem is he missed all of pre season and hasn't played in a game since Dec 30th. I don't see Action Jackson returning to form this quick. Bulger will need to be the man and that doesn't bode well for him with new Eagles cornerback, Asante Samuel flying through their secondary.
Eagles: The Rams don't exactly have the stingiest defense in the NFL. Last year, they gave up an average of 27.4 points per game. The Westbrook express should fly through this game with no problems.
Fantasy Factors: Steven Jackson (6), Brian Westbrook (10)
Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
Cowboys: The well oiled Texas scoring machine that is the Cowboy offense makes its first stop this season in Cleveland. Marion Barber shop of horrors will eat the Brownies alive like Audrey 2. Hmmmmm... eating Brownies... <drools>. Romo and Owens will get the leftovers and the high hopes Cleveland has for their football team will be cooked.
Browns: The Browns have been the walking wounded as of late and things won't be easy for them as they host the Cowboys. Derek Anderson is struggling with a concussion, Jamal Lewis with a hamstring and Braylon Edwards with a foot. This could be a repeat of the home opener last year for the Browns.
Fantasy Factors: Marion Barber (10), Kellen Winslow (7)
Carolina Panthers vs San Diego Chargers
Panthers: I really like the Panthers offense this year, but unfortunately they're going to be playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL in Week One. No Steve Smith will really hurt the passing game.
Chargers: The Chargers were my Super Bowl pick last year and came within one game of that goal. This year, they're my pick once again to make it to the Big Show. LT is my favorite to be the league MVP and Philip Rivers is going to have a breakout year. This will be one of their toughest tests this season.
Fantasy Factors: DeAngelo Williams (7), LaDainian Tomlinson (9)
Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers
Cardinals: "Cardinals at 49ers: Opening Day" take two and.... action! Last year, these two teams opened up the season together and everyone was expecting a shootout. Instead we got bored out of our minds watching this poorly played game. With Warner behind center this time though, we can expect much more production out of the Cards offense.
49ers: Maybe it was the throwback uniforms or maybe it had to do with Alex Smith. Whatever the case, the 49ers look to start the season on the right foot against the Cardinals this year. Frank the Tank is looks primed to have a big season with new OC Mike Martz.
Fantasy Factors: Larry Fitzgerald (8), Frank Gore (9)
Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
Bears: In a rematch of Super Bowl XLI, the Bears are starting a guy that was on the bench for that game Kyle Orton at QB and a guy that wasn't even on their team, Matt Forte at RB. While things have changed drastically offensively the defense is still rock solid and will help Peyton Manning knock off some of his rust, by knocking him around.
Colts: Not very much has changed since their Super Bowl matchup, but as the old saying goes, "if it's not broke, don't fix it". The Colts haven't changed a thing and are looking once again like Super Bowl contenders.
Fantasy Factors: Joseph Addai (7), Bears DEF / ST (7)
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Vikings: Last time the Vikings played in Green Bay they got whooped 34-0 and Brett Favre threw for 351 yards and 3 TD's. Favre won't be at this game, with the Packers, Vikings or just standing on the sidelines. The Vikings are my favorite to win the NFC North and this will be one big step towards accomplishing that goal. Purple Jesus is ready to challenge for a rushing title and Tavaris Jackson is looking more like a starting QB. Plus, the Vikings defense is looking as nasty as they were from the late 60's through the 70's.
Packers: Poor Aaron Rodgers. First, the whole waiting 3-4 hours to be drafted when he could've been number one overall. Then waiting more for Favre to retire only to have him come back and try to take his spot. Finally Rodgers is done waiting, but he's going to wish he wasn't the starter after this one is over. In his first NFL start, he will get matched up against a very tough and very physical Vikings defense. This could be a very painful debut for A-Rod 2 and the entire Packers offense.
Fantasy Factors: Adrian Peterson (8), Ryan Grant (6)
Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders
Broncos: Last year, the Broncos were outplayed twice by the Raiders and only a cheap last second timeout by Mike Shanahan saved them in the first game. The Raiders are a better team this year, Brandon Marshall is suspended and Travis Henry is gone. Jay Cutler and Selvin Young (or anyone else the Broncos throw out there for RB) will have their work cut out for them in this one.
Raiders: If Lamont Jordan and Justin Fargas can run all over the Broncos, what will Darren McFadden do? The Broncos didn't do anything in the off season that suggests to me that they'll be able to stop the run this year either. This will be Run DMC's coming out party on Monday Night Football.
Fantasy Factors: Jay Cutler (7), Darren McFadden (9)
Aug 29 2008
This week your fantasy sports go-to-guy was involved in his own fantasy football draft on ESPN. It was your standard league with the usual roster spots. Nothing special. I logged into the draft early and discovered that I was picking 10th... out of 10 teams. Yay me. Some people say that it doesn't matter because that just means I get the first pick in the second round, but I disagree. I hate picking 10th. I would much rather pick first in the 1st and 3rd rounds, than in the 2nd and 4th rounds. But really, considering I won both fantasy football leagues I played in last year, its only fitting that I pick last in fantasy drafts. Picking 7th was Mrs Fantasy Factor, my wife, Maria (pictured). She's actually a really tough player to play against for a number of reasons. She watches A LOT of football, pumps me for information every chance she gets and is incredibly lucky or can simply see the future. Last year, she picked up Earnest Graham well before anyone else even knew he existed, even Jon Gruden.
(Photo by Erica McFarland)
1st Round:
As the draft started, I looked at the list of players and thought to myself, "Well if I can get lucky, Gore and Barber will fall to me and I'll be in great shape." Knowing my wife wanted Tom Brady as her first pick, that was one less person I had to worry about taking one of those two backs. Everything started out as planned. Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, and Lynch were the first 5 picks. Lynch was a bit of a surprise to me, which only added to my optimism, but it was short lived. The 6th pick was Brady and Maria was up next. Uh oh... "With the 7th pick in the 2008 fantasy football draft, Mrs Fantasy Factor selects RB Frank Gore, SF 49ers". Crappers! And just like that my perfect 1st and 2nd round combo went down in flames. I still had to sweat out two more picks before I would find out if I would at least be able to land Marion Barber. Steven Jackson went 8th and Clinton Portis went 9th... Whew! Made it. "With the final pick of the first round, the Xtreme Machine selects RB Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys." I handed Barber a black jersey with red numbers, got some pictures taken and knew that I had a TD monster in my backfield.
2nd Round:
With the exception of 2004, when I drafted Peyton Manning, I have avoided drafting a quarterback in the high rounds. I always figured somebody good will greet me down the road that would fill that spot just as well as any elite quarterback would. Then I would draft a wide receiver and there were plenty available at this point. Moss, Owens, Fitzgerald, but not this year. As I've found out the hard way, its tough to win a fantasy championship without a good quarterback and I knew there wouldn't be an elite quarterback waiting for me at the end of the yellow brick draft road in the 3rd round. So I click my mouse three times and said "There's no QB like Romo, there's no QB like Romo, there's no QB like Romo" and like magic the Cowboy quarterback appeared on my roster. 2nd Round Pick: Tony Romo
3rd Round:
This was the toughest part of the draft for me. All that talent on the board and not being able to pick again until everyone else picks twice. A lot of top backs were taken in the 2nd round and top receivers and QB's in the third. Finally, after waiting for what seemed like an eternity, it was my turn. It was between Colston and "Who's your momma" (Houshmandzadeh). Maybe it was the Steeler fan in me or maybe it had to do with the fact that Colston is the top receiver on a pass happy offense, but I went with Cool Cat Colston in the 3rd round. 3rd Round Pick: Marques Colston
4th Round:
Now the reasonable thing to do at this point would be to grab Houshmandzadeh since it was between him and Colston in the last round. But I decided to switch gears and take another look at the available running backs. Reggie Bush, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner, Run DMC (Darren McFadden) were all still on the board, but I have a very strong feeling about Thomas Jones this year. As I mentioned in my sleeper picks and in my RB preview, Jones will have every opportunity to succeed this season. Soft schedule, rebuilt offensive line, Brett Favre. The planets seem to be aligning for Jones this year and I know he'll be long gone before I get to pick again. 4th Round Pick: Thomas Jones
5th Round:
Once again, the long wait till my next pick. I'm watching names like Favre, Holmes, Gates, Witten, Smith, Boldin and Welker get picked along with the RB's I mentioned in the last round. I need receiving big time. Fortunately, at this point the best players out there are receivers and there was one receiver I was kind of surprised to see this late, the Soldja boy himself, Kellen Winslow Jr. This was a no brainer. He'll rack up the most receiving yards of any TE's and if he can continue to build on his TD receptions, his numbers will be equivalent to a top tier WR. 5th Round Pick: Kellen Winslow Jr
(Photo by Getty Images)
6th Round:
Looking to round out my starting receiving core, I took a look at the WR's. With Harrison and Marshall on the board, there were still some decent options, but I'm always looking for the steals or the guys that have the potential to be more than just decent. That's why I broke down the draft walls with Jerricho Cotchery. Jerricho has the most chemistry with Favre at this point and if that trend continues, he'll post some pro bowl worthy numbers when its all said and done. 6th Round Pick: Jerricho Cotchery
7th Round Pick: Nick Folk - A lot of people like to pick kickers last or near the end, but Folk is one I can't pass up. No, not because he has the same initials as me. Can your kicker do this? He scored some big points for me in some big games last year and Folk should continue with that this year. The Cowboys look to have the best offense in football this year and Folk will be factoring in on those points in some way, shape or form.
8th Round Pick: Ricky Williams - This was a tough one. I used about 88 seconds of my 90 second draft window before deciding to jump aboard the Pineapple Express. I didn't want Ricky this early, but then again this guy may very well be the Comeback player of the year in the NFL. The 8th round is a great round to get a guy like Ricky, plus I already had a plan on stock piling RB's toward the end of the draft.
9th Round Pick: Dallas Cowboys D/ST - With the Chargers defense gone (to Mrs Fantasy Factor, of course), I continued with my Cowboys themed team and drafted their defense/special teams. Tank Johnson and Adam "Don't call me Pacman anymore" Jones will play some very inspired football this season to prove that have what it takes.
10th Round Pick: Kenny Watson - As I had mentioned in my sleepers post, Kenny Watson has a lot of Brian Westbrook qualities to him. The latest on the Bungles running back situation made him an even stronger pick. In my opinion, Watson is worth the gamble. Even if Johnson comes back, he's not going to be 100% and quite frankly he just isn't as good as Watson. He does a lot more for the offense than Rudi and I think Marvin Lewis will see this... his job depends on it.
11th Round Pick: Ray Rice - I'm not sure which was more surprising to me, the fact that he was still available in the 11th round or the fact that I hadn't picked him yet after signing his praises for so long. Rice is a really good back and is shining this preseason. At some point he will be the starter and we all know how starting RB's fair in Cam Cameron offenses.
(Photo by Lloyd Fox / AP)
12th Round Pick: Jake Delhomme - I had sent an IM to Maria saying, "I forgot to pick a backup QB and now all the good ones are taken. I really hope Romo doesn't get hurt this year". She responded with, "What? What are you talking about? I'm taking Rivers." As it turned out, I, with all of my infinite wisdom, had sorted the list sorted wrong. I thought Tavaris Jackson being the best QB left available was kind of odd. When I sorted the list right, my eyes almost bugged out. There was Jake Delhomme and Philip Rivers just sitting there undrafted in the 12th round. Unreal. It was a toss up between the two. Delhomme and Rivers were listed at 8th and 9th respectively in my rankings. But I decided to stick with my rankings, plus I knew Mrs Fantasy Factor wanted Rivers and if it wasn't for her I would've been drafting T-Jack as my backup.
13th Round Pick: Chris Johnson - Going into this round I'm thinking, "Okay, time to get a depth player at receiver and Ted Ginn Jr will do just fine". Maria IM's me and says "I'm taking Stallworth". That's just fine by me. "With the 127th pick in the 2008 fantasy draft, Mrs Fantasy Factor selects WR Ted Ginn Jr". UGH! Again! I IMed her, "What happened to Stallworth?!". She responds with "I read your sleeper picks post. hehe" Hurt by my own blog. So with that I decided to complete the stock piling of RB's by selecting the Titans number one pick, Chris Johnson. Its a risky pick for sure, but I've never really been a LenDale White fan and I don't think the Titans are either. Why else would they draft a RB in the first round? Johnson should be starting or at least getting the lion share of the carries by the end.
14th Round Pick: 49ers D/ST - Another gamble pick here on my part. The Niners have built a pretty solid defense on paper. One that could create a lot of turnovers and make plays, but until they go out there and actually do it this defense is a risk.
15th Round Pick: Muhsin Muhammad - As I mentioned in my sleeper post, Muhammad wants to show that it was the poor quarterback play of the Bears that affected his production and not his age. Muhammad caught 16 TD passes from Delhomme in 2004. If he can get half that, I'd be happy. He's filling the spot that was intended for Ted Ginn Jr.
16th Round Pick: Zach Miller - Also another one of my sleeper picks, Miller is a steal. JaMarcus Russell seems most comfortable throwing him the ball over anyone else. Hopefully he feels that way all year. Miller is a good TE to start and great one to have as a backup in case Winslow decides to do his best Evil Knievel impression again.
Just like that my 2008 fantasy football draft came to an end. For those of you that are wondering here's how Mrs Fantasy Factor's team shaped up:
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Frank Gore
Earnest Graham
Julius Jones
Chester Taylor
Terrell Owens
Donald Driver
Ted Ginn Jr
Patrick Crayton
Issac Bruce
Antonio Gates
Vernon Davis
Chargers D/ST
Buccaneers D/ST
Nate Kaeding
Considering I picked last, I came away from this draft with a pretty good team with a lot of upside and potential to be great. I've noticed in the past that a lot of drafts go in similar patterns, so if you're drafting last you'll probably see the same players available that I did throughout your draft, so maybe you could to use this post as a guide to help you in your quest for a fantasy championship. Overall I'd grade this draft as a B+ for my team. I was hoping to get someone more proven to fill the RB/WR slot on my team, but instead I'm going to have my RB committee of Williams, Watson, Rice and Johnson filling that role. Let me know what you guys think. Grade my team. Grade Mrs Fantasy Factors' team. Let me know how you faired in your draft and what grade you would give yourself. If you don't already have an account, click here to create your free account.
Aug 27 2008
As we head into the home stretch of fantasy baseball, its time to look at some of the players that are heating up and some that are tailing off at the most critical part of the season.
Shooting Stars
Mark DeRosa - I never thought I'd say this about a 6 hitter, but DeRosa is a machine. He's batting .378 in August and is showing no signs of slowing down. He's currently enjoying an 8 game hitting streak and in 5 of those games has at least 2 hits. He also went on a 4 game homerun streak. The Cubs are the highest scoring team in the NL by far so his production may not continue at this pace, but he'll still be a reliable bat down the stretch. DeRosa plays second base for the Cubs, but in Yahoo! leagues he's eligible at pretty much any spot. Plug him in wherever you may have a hole in your roster.
(Photo by Getty Images)
Raul Ibanez - At the All Star break I said I believed Ibanez would have a big second half and boy was I right. Since the All Star break Ibanez is batting .372 with 9 HR and 33 RBI in 37 games. Apparently Ibanez didn't get the memo about the Mariners having a snowball chance in "you know where" of making the playoffs this year. If for some ridiculous reason, he's still on waivers, please, I beg you pick him up already!
Alexei Ramirez - The second base / shortstop position is a tough one to get production out of unless; of course you have Chase Utley or Derek Jeter. Most teams are looking for someone to get consistent production out of. If he's not already taken, take a look at Alexei Ramirez. He's been hitting up quite a storm in the Windy City and is a big reason for their surge in the AL central. If you're waiting for your dud of a second baseman to catch fire, quit waiting and get the one that is already on fire.
J.J. Hardy - After falling into a bit of slump earlier in the month, JJ Hardy is once again swinging a hot bat. This hot/cold hitting for Hardy isn't anything out of the ordinary. The good news is, his newest hot streak is just starting, so there's a good chance it'll last into the fantasy baseball playoffs. If you're not committed to your SS, take a chance on the Hardy boy.
Kevin Slowey - It took Kevin a little while to get used to the majors, but I'd have to say he's about ready now. This month he's 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and has a, get this, 27:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He walked ONE batter in this entire month! If you're looking to solidify the backend of your pitching staff, pickup Slowey quickly.
Al Reyes - With all the problems the Mets are having in their bullpen, everyone up to and including Mr Met is getting a chance to prove their mettle. Reyes, the former Rays closer from last year, is currently in the minors "shaking off rust". He should be on the big club next week and will get a chance to close. Reyes proved to be very valuable for the Rays last season as a closer, he would have even more value in a Mets uniform.
Falling Stars:
Magglio Ordonez - Can someone please explain to me how he's not hitting right now? Miguel Cabrera, his protection in the lineup, is white hot since the All Star break, yet Ordonez is struggling at the plate this month. He's way to valuable to drop, but if you have an open bench spot, put him on it. You can't afford to have a high impact player like an outfielder not produce for you this time of year.
Gary Sheffield - Not to keep picking on the Tigers, but if you're an owner clinging to Gary Sheffield like a solider clinging to a helicopter flying out of a battlefield, let go, its not taking you anywhere you want to go. Sheffy batted .235 in July and .224 in August. It was a great career Gary, now its time to hang them up and quit hurting the fantasy owners that have faith in you.
Nate McLouth - I really hate to put NDawg on this list, but... since representing Pittsburgh in the All Star game he's batting .254 and his power numbers have dropped, way down (3 HR and 11 RBI in 33 games). It should be noted though that the sharp decline in his power numbers coincide with the departure of Xavier Nady and Jason Bay. How many batters did Hansen walk last night? McLouth is a droppable player so if there's someone better out there get him.
Dan Haren - Haren was coasting along looking like a real contender for the Cy Young award. Then he got into August, gave up 4 ER to the Pirates and hasn't been the same since. Maybe getting lit up by the Buccos hurt his confidence or maybe the NL has finally figured him out. Either way, it's a tough time for his fantasy owners. The workhorse that has been driving your pitching staff is suddenly having trouble. Yes, he was very dominant versus the Padres last Monday but don't use that to gauge whether he's back or not. Once upon a time, Yoslan Herrera pitched a gem against the Padres. However, it could be the confidence boost he needs to get back on track.
Also, just as a heads up, MLB.com is having a rookie reporter showdown. The winner gets to cover the World Series in October for MLB.com. Co-host Paul Greco of Talking Baseball Live, the national radio show I was a part of, is a finalist. Paul's a baseball encyclopedia and this could be his big break in stardom. This could also be your big break to go to a baseball game where the outcome matters. By voting online you can win two tickets to a game in the 2008 World Series. Click here to vote for Paul.
Aug 25 2008
The most popular question I get asked as the fantasy sports genius is "Who are the sleepers this year?" For those of you that are unfamiliar with the term, we're not talking about that crusty stuff in your eyes when you wake up. We're talking about players that are not on the radar for any number of reasons (injuries, bad few seasons, rookie, etc), typically fall into the later rounds of drafts or don't get drafted at all and then turn into fantasy gold during the season. Picking the best sleepers is the easiest way to win a fantasy championship in any sport. Here are the Fantasy Factor sleepers for the 2008 football season.
Ricky Williams - With a lot of attention on Ronnie Brown in Miami, Williams has made the most of time on the field. He's looked very good in camp and even better in pre-season games. With Brown's knee (and now thumb) not at 100%, there's a good chance that this former 1800 yard rusher, will get most of the carries this year and could very well be the Comeback player of the year. If Ricky is out there late in your draft, take a chance on him.
Ted Ginn Jr. - Sticking with the Dolphins, they have another player that is sure to see a lot of playing time this season in Ted Ginn Jr. Ginn is having a great camp and is also feeling a ripple effect from the Brett Favre trade. When Brett's plane landed in NY, Pennington was unceremoniously shoved out the door. But now as a part of the division rival Dolphins, he's starting to develop a connection with the former 9th overall pick, Ginn. The Dolphins don't have a lot of offensive weapons so Ginn should see the ball a lot including on punt returns. Ginn is absolutely electric with the football and he will look a lot more like a number one draft pick this year.
Michael Turner - With Michael Vick away from the Falcons dealing with his own problems, there's not a whole lot to watch in Atlanta these days, but things may be turning around with Turner. The long time backup to LT will finally get a starting gig with the Falcons and so far has made the most of it. In his first pre season game against the Jags he ran for 22 yards on 5 carries. The next game against the Colts he ran for a whopping 113 yards on 4 carries, mostly due to a 63 yard sprint. Turner has always been a homerun hitter (50+ yard runs) and he'll get more opportunities to hit those homers now. I wouldn't bank on him as your number one, but he's a good risk in the 2nd RB spot and great RB/WR flex player.
Zach Miller - Last year, JaMarcus Russell threw his first, of what will hopefully be many, TD pass to tight end Zach Miller in Week 16. The following week Russell found Miller 8 times for 84 yards. So far this year, Russell has continued that trend in the pre season. The chemistry is definitely there and with TE position so tough to fill, it makes perfect sense to take a chance on him if you're without a TE in the later rounds.
Thomas Jones - As I had mentioned in my RB's preview, Jones will really benefit with the addition of Favre and the rebuilt offensive line. I've seen Jones go as late as the 7th round in standard format leagues, but that was early on. His value has steadily increased since the Favre trade and I think this sleeper is already starting to wake up and fans are already noticing.
Ray Rice - Also mentioned in my preview, Rice is a can't miss player. Right now, he's stuck behind Willie McGahee which is scaring off a lot of people, but Rice is a better all around back than McGahee and at some point this year, will be the Ravens starting back. McGahee is already having injury problems, so it may only be a matter of time. It was really disappointing to see him get drafted by the Ravens, of all teams. Don't be disappointed again and get him on your team.
Chris Johnson - The Titans number one draft pick out of East Carolina has burst onto the scene in Tennessee and is already threatening to unseat current starter Lendale White. Johnson had a 6.0 rushing average, caught 37 passes and scored 23 TD's in 13 games last year. He could be the Titans workhorse for years to come, so this may be the only year he'll come cheap.
Muhsin Muhammad - Last time Muhammad was seen in a Panthers uniform, he pulled down 93 passes for over 1400 yards and 16 TD's. Since then, he's disappeared into the wide receivers vortex known as Chicago, where apparently "receivers go to die". Fortunately, Muhammad is now free of the vortex and is back to where he belongs in Carolina playing opposite Steve Smith. I don't expect his presence to hurt Smith, but in 2004 Delhomme looked for Muhammad a lot in the end zone and will probably do so again this year. He could potentially have over 10 TD's and less than 1000 yards.
Kenny Watson - Despite getting a limited number of carries last year (over 15 carries four times), Watson put together a pretty impressive season while filling in for the injured Rudi Johnson. What really sticks out is the number of passes he caught (52). If Watson had been the full time back all season, he would've had well over 1000 yards rushing and over 80 catches. Watson is a poor man's Brian Westbrook. He has the tools to do it all, the only problem is the Bengals are going with a running back by committee approach right now which is once again limiting Watson's activity and value. If the Bengals decide to someday have a higher number in the win column than in the loss one, Watson will be the starting back.
Aug 22 2008
Hey everyone, welcome to another Fantasy Friday! With the NFL season right around the corner, I received a few football questions and I also got a couple baseball ones as well. I know, just based on the questions I get, that most of my readers are in draft leagues, but if you want to try something a little different check the post-gazette.com's salary cap league at http://www.post-gazette.com/fantasyfootball. Its free and a lot of fun to play. So check it out. Now onto the questions...
What are your thoughts on Larry Johnson? He wasn't on your RB preview and in all the drafts I've been in so far he get drafted anywhere from 2nd to 7th rounds? - TopPick
LJ was a top 5 running back last year, but he's really fallen off and it really has nothing to do with him or his talent. The Chiefs are a mess on offense. No quarterback, no great receiving threat and the offensive line is downright atrocious. This absolutely kills LJ's fantasy value. Teams are going to key on him and force quarterback Brodie Croyle to beat them. Having said that though, the schedule maker was on their side and the Chiefs face several poor run defenses this season which will help Johnson put up decent numbers despite not having a lot of help. For me, Johnson would be a great second RB or a good first RB with your quarterback and wide receivers taken in the earlier rounds. I would say LJ is a 3rd to 5th round pick this year in a standard 10-12 team league.
(Photo by Getty Images)
I am in a keeper league and I need a TE. Boss is available for our draft. Will he have a good year or is there a rookie I should look for? - Jon McClain
Boss was adequate down the stretch while Shockey was injured, but I'm not sold on his long term value. With Plaxico injured, he'll probably pull down a few more passes than usual, but I don't see him making a big impact this year. Right now Zach Miller appears to be an emerging TE with the Raiders. He and JaMarcus Russell appear to have great chemistry. You might want to see if he's available and if not him, one of the Jets number one draft picks this year, Dustin Keller, was a big playmaker at Purdue and will be the starter at some point either this year or next.
I'm in a small fantasy baseball league, everybody's team is stacked. Evan Longoria is my 3rd baseman and of course he's injured now and I'm auditioning for a new 3rd baseman in his absence. Melvin Mora is out there and he's playing really well right now, but cmon now, its Melvin Mora. I don't want someone who's just on a hot streak. - bucco124
Is there another human being out there swinging a hotter bat than Melvin Mora right now? Mora has had four 4 RBI games and one 6 RBI game and batting .455 this month. This is more than just a hot streak. His hitting streak started in July and has really heated up in August. Mora really isn't that bad of a hitter overall, he did win the AL batting title in 2004, so its really not that unimaginable to see him hitting like this now. Mora is a great pick up right now and belong in your lineup, no matter how small your fantasy league is. As for Longoria, he is due to be coming off the DL pretty soon, but I wouldn't be eager to slap him back into your lineup right away. He's reporting some stiffness in his wrist and considering its his right wrist and he's a right handed hitter, it could affect his power. Wrist injuries are tough for hitters to come back from, so I would leave Longoria on your DL, even when he's healthy and wait to see how he performs before plugging him back in.
The Giants defense looks pretty nasty up front and the retirement of Strahan won't be that big of a loss. - hubbuh48
In regards to the G-Men not making the list of my top ten defenses, I think the Strahan retirement, grouped with the fact that everyone will be highlighting the Giants on their schedule this year will hurt them. With Strahan gone, guys like Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck can be double teamed and the Giants ability to get to the quarterback is the strength of this defense. If they can't apply pressure to the quarterback, that secondary is going to get eaten alive by the likes of Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb.
With Billy Wagner on the shelf, who is going to be the Mets closer? - avg2173
That's a good question. They've been throwing out Aaron Heilman in the ninth and he's looked less than impressive. Pedro Feliciano picked up a couple saves and has looked a little bit better than Heilman, but not great. They picked up Luis Ayala and former Rays closer Al Reyes this past week. Reyes probably figures to be the better option between the two of them, but currently is in the minors and probably won't get called up until the September 1st roster expansion. If you're desperate for saves, I'd get Reyes. The Mets are so desperate for bullpen help right now I wouldn't be surprised to see Mr. Met take the mound.
(Photo by NY Post)
Do I draft Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams or both?
Despite all the progress Ronnie Brown has made over the past 10 months with his rehabbing, he hasn't shown us a spark to suggest he can repeat what he did last year. Brown has had two poor showings in pre-season while his "backup", Ricky Williams, has looked really good and was promoted to the first string team a few days ago. The move is said to be done because of Brown's sprained right thumb, but if he can't show the coaches something this pre season, there's no way they can keep Williams off the field. I would stay away from Brown and draft Williams in the later rounds. He could be the steal of the draft.
That wraps it up for this week. If you have a question for this fantasy sports guru, just submit your question through the contact link in the upper left hand corner of the page and your question and my response will get posted next Friday. Also feel free to log on and leave me any of your thoughts or comments.
Aug 20 2008
Nobody knows better than Pittsburgh that, defense wins championships. Its a proven fact. Look at the 70's Steel Curtain. Look at the 85 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs. All those teams had dominating defenses practically made them invincible. While having a great defense in the NFL is the fast track to success, in fantasy football, it doesn't really pay off as much. In the fantasy world, its all about making plays. Sure, your team defense can be penalized if they give up too many points, but if they record 5 sacks, pick off a couple passes and score a touchdown, how many points they give up, is irrelevant. This is a position that isn't critical to your success, but it can bail you out if you're offensive stars don't produce. The only time it ever really made an impact for me was in 2003 when I had that ridiculous Miami Dolphins defense. Lots of INTs, sacks, and didn't give up a lot of points either. Here are 10 defenses that could rival that one in terms of fantasy point production:
1. San Diego Chargers - Things you look for in a fantasy defense. One, sacks. The Chargers finished with 42 sacks last year, 2nd in the AFC, led by sack machine Shawne Merriman. Two, interceptions. Last year, they had 8 more than any other team in football. They have one man to thank for that, Antonio Cromartie. He IS the new Deion Sanders of the NFL. Some of the plays he made last year were the most exciting plays ever in the history of the NFL. Three, TD's scored. Mostly thanks to Cromartie, the Chargers finished with 5 TD's, good for second in the AFC. Four, points allowed. San Diego surrendered an average of 17.8 points per game and that was with a tough schedule. This is the defense to have, going into the 2008 season.
2. Minnesota Vikings - The Vikes were a bit of a late bloomer in 2007. The defense didn't really come around until Week 12 when they picked off the eventual Super Bowl quarterback, Eli Manning, 4 times. They finished the season 1st against the run and 1st in defensive TD's. To help improve their pass defense, this past offseason they acquired former KC Chiefs sack master, Jared Allen. The Vikings have, by far, the best offensive and defensive lines in football. A wise man once told me that whomever controls the line of scrimmage controls the game. Good thing Favre left Green Bay, because the NFC North is in the control of the Vikings.
3. Seattle Seahawks - The defending NFC West champions quietly had one of the best defenses in the NFC last year. They finished first in interceptions, led by Marcus Trufant with seven. The Hawks also finished third in sacks and average points allowed. There's a lot of uncertainty with the offenses in NFC West right now and a solid defense, like this one, could really clean up.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Its not as good as the 2002 squad, but the 2008 version of the Bucs defense is one of the most formidable ones in the NFC. Last year, they led the NFC in points and yards per game and like the 2002 defense, led the league in passing yards per game. This is one of the more well rounded defenses in football. Great defensive line, solid linebacking corps, and play makers in the secondary. As long as the offense is respectable and doesn't have the defense on the field all the time, this unit should really take off in 2008.
5. Dallas Cowboys - This defense is loaded with stars, no pun intended.... okay pun intended. DeMarcus Ware, Roy Williams, Terence Newman, Tank Johnson and Adam "Don't call me Pacman anymore" Jones. Whether or not all this talent will cash in remains to be seen, but I'd be willing to take a chance on them. Ware is a sack monster and Williams and Jones will get their hands on a lot of passes this year. This will be the best Cowboys defense since their Super Bowl years.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers - There's a lot to like about this defense. They have a great defensive coordinator in Dick LeBeau, a very talented safety in Troy Polamalu that creates a lot of turnovers, and what is shaping up to be possibly one of the best linebacking corps in the NFL. If Lawrence Timmons plays like a first round pick, LaMarr Woodley builds off his success from last year and James Farrior and Harrison continue to play at a high level, the Steelers will be near the top of the league in defense once again. But that's a might big IF as the Steelers have the toughest schedule in the NFL this year.
(Photo by Peter Diana / Post-Gazette)
7. Chicago Bears - After the 2006 season, the Bears defense was expected to once again led this team to the top of the NFC North and beyond. A tougher schedule, injury problems and problems on offense led to a very disappointing season. This year, I'm expecting this unit to bounce back. Brian Urlacher, in my opinion, is the best linebacker in football. He'll be leading this defense once again and I think they'll look more like the 2006 team than last years' team. The question marks on the offense could mean that they'll be on the field a lot and that could spell a lot of trouble for this defense from a fatigue standpoint. The points allowed average won't be great, but they should still get sacks, picks and TD's. If your league is Defense/Special teams, this unit deserves a higher ranking with Pro Bowl returner, Devin Hester.
8. San Francisco 49ers - This is a bit of a gamble pick on my part. Last year, the 49ers were not anything special on either side of the football, but I think things will turn around this year. On paper, this defensive unit looks pretty good. They shelled out a lot of money for Nate Clements last off season to play opposite Walt Harris and have one of the best cornerback tandems in football. It didn't really work out that well since everyone ran all over them. This year, they added Justin Smith to the defensive line and Takeo Spikes to the linebackers, giving them one of the best linebacking corps in football. I think these improvements from this past offseason, will pay off and make them one of the top 10 defenses.
9. Indianapolis Colts - For years, everyone said, "Only if the Colts had a defense...". Well last year, the Colts had a defense. They gave up the least amount of points per game in the NFL and were third in yards allowed. This is a solid defense but it really relies on a few players to work. Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeney are the heart and soul. If they guys are hurt, this defense is average at best.
10. Tennessee Titans -This is a defense with a lot of strength up front and lead the league in run defense before Albert Haynesworth got injured. Like the Colts, this defense relies a lot on a couple players to be successful. Haynesworth is one of them. The secondary consists of a lot of ball hawkers and finished third in the NFL in INTs.
Aug 18 2008
No other position in football is as hit or miss as the tight end position. There are very few TE's worth owning, the rest basically just fill a roster spot, so drafting a good one is necessary to build a complete team. Every now and again a new TE will emerge and give some lucky owner production out of a spot he gave up on. In the 2004 draft, I took a chance on an undrafted TE from Kent State playing for the Chargers. I was hoping he would catch a few TD passes here and there. He caught 81 passes for 984 yards, 13 TD's and for years has become everyone's number favorite TE, Antonio Gates. Here is the Fantasy Factors' top 10 TE picks for 2008.
1. Jason Witten - Tony Romo's roadtrip roommate, Witten, experienced a career year with over 1000 yards receiving and 7 TD's in 2007. This upcoming season promises more of the same. The Cowboys offense is looking very explosive right now and Witten should easily be able to duplicate his 2007 success. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 rec, 950 yards, 8 TD's
(Photo by Getty Images)
2. Antonio Gates -With all the success I've personally had with Gates on my fantasy teams throughout the years, it pains me to rank him as second. The reason behind it though has to do with his injured toe, that bothered him in the playoffs and all through the off season. He said the pain is "tolerable" but is still feeling a lot of discomfort. Injuries aside, Gates is still a great TE and should continue to rack up big numbers, especially this year with the Chargers passing game getting a lot better. Gates won't have to deal with the same types of coverages he did in the past and if he can get over this injury problem, he will have a career year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 75 rec, 850 yards, 9 TD's
3. Jeremy Shockey - When the Saints acquired, long time Giant, Jeremy Shockey, his value skyrocketed instantly. The Giants were said to be shopping him around and sending him to the Saints was the best possible move for Shockey, the Saints and his owners. Shockey is now reunited with his former offensive coordinator from the Giants, Sean Payton, who was their coordinator during his most productive year. Combine that with the fact that Brees loves to pass the ball to TE's and Shockey should have a big year in the Big Easy. Fantasy Factor Projection: 70 rec, 800 yards, 9 TD's
4. Kellen Winslow - He may never be as good as his father, but for the last two years, Junior has been a beast... or a soldier... whatever he prefers to be called. In 2005, Winslow injured himself on a motorcycle, causing himself to miss the entire season. Since the crash, Winslow has put together two fantastic Pro Bowl worthy seasons for the Brownies. He acted as Derek Anderson's security blanket last year, which led to him leading the team in receptions. This year, with the Cleveland offense looking even better, Winslow should put up big numbers again and could be the best TE in the league when its all said and done. Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 rec, 1100 yards, 7 TD's
5. Tony Gonzalez - This 9 time Pro Bowler has been one of the best TE's in football. Despite all the struggles of the Chiefs offense last year, Gonzalez still managed to pull down 99 passes for 1172 yards. He should once again put together another good season, but playing in this offense, his numbers are bound to take a hit. Fantasy Factor Projection: 70 rec, 900 yards, 6 TD's
6. Vernon Davis - After being drafted 6th overall in the 2006 draft, big things were expected of Davis, but so far, it hasn't happend. The 49ers, though with Mike Martz as the new OC, are looking to finally have that big offensive breakout that we've been expecting for that last few years. Although TE's don't usually do well in Martz's offense, he has gone on the record as saying he will utilize Davis' athleticism, to make him a major weapon in the offense. Davis isn't a sure thing, but he's buzzing with confidence right now and could have a big year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 rec, 700 yards, 8 TD's
(Photo by Kathy Willens / AP)
7. Dallas Clark - Dallas Clark may have looked like Clark Kent between the 20's, but inside the red zone, he made some Super catches and hauled down 11 TD's last year. With all the weapons the Colts have, Clark tends to be the forgotten man this offense. Even though he may not be faster than a locomotive, he can catch Peyton's speeding bullets and figures to catch more this year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 60 rec, 600 yards, 7 TD's
8. Chris Cooley - Since coming into the NFL in 2004, he's been every Redskin quarterbacks' best friend. Despite all the changes at QB, Cooley's numbers have been pretty consistent. This year, though, may be his biggest challenge. New head coach, Jim Zorn, is leaning more towards a run-oriented offense and this could affect Cooley's numbers. Fantasy Factor Projection: 65 rec, 700 yards, 7 TD's
9. Heath Miller - Last year, Heath had career highs in all major categories and this upward trend in numbers will continue this year. And I'm not just saying that because I just happen to be wearing a Heath Miller jersey right now. With all the attention going to Holmes and Ward, Miller should be matched up against a linebacker, which is a very favorable matchup for him. Plus, if the Steelers running game struggles near the goaline again this year, Heath could catch a few more TD passes. I wouldn't expect huge numbers out of Miller, but 40-50 yards receiving and a TD is 10 points and that's pretty respectable out the TE position. Fantasy Factor Projection: 55 rec, 600 yards, 8 TD's
10. Owen Daniels - When Andre Johnson went down, the Texans had a huge gap in their receiving core. That gap was filled by big Owen Daniels. Daniels caught 63 passes for 768 yards last season and while those numbers seem really good for TE, he only caught 3 TD passes. If he can duplicate those numbers and catch about 5 more TD passes, he'll be in the top 5 next season. Fantasy Factor Projection: 60 rec, 650 yards, 6 TD's
Aug 15 2008
Ronnie Brown Questions:
After getting 4 questions the first week, I didn't receive any last week for Fantasy Friday. This past week though, I got a few questions and all regarding Ronnie Brown.
"Where should I draft him?" - Brown shouldn't be drafted in rounds 1-4. He is coming off ACL surgery and drafting him in one of the first four rounds is risky. There's really no way to tell how he'll play on this knee until he's actually on the field. It really depends on how much of risk taker you are. His knee could affect his performance all season, but on the other hand, he put up HUGE numbers before the injury and is more than capable of doing it again.
"Who would be a better pick, Ronnie Brown or Reggie Bush?" - As risky of a pick as Brown is, I would take him over Eric Metcalf: The Next Generation aka Reggie Bush. When Deuce McAllister was lost for the season in Week Three, Bush was given a golden opportunity to showcase his talent and show that he is capable of being a number one back in the NFL and he flopped. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry (157 carries) and averaged 5.7 yards per reception (73 receptions). For a guy that is supposed to explosive and exciting when he touches the ball, he certainly didn't show it last year.
"How is Ronnie's preseason looking right now?" - Well last Saturday, he got back into action carrying the ball 3 times for 4 yards against Tampa Bay. Not a great performance, but considering how fast he's recovered from this surgery, it was impressive that he was on the field at all. This Saturday against the Jags, Coach Sparano said Brown is going to be seeing more activity, so we should a more of an idea of where Ronnie stands then.
For those of you that are interested, I received this video from Robyn Ettinger, who works with numerous NFL and MLB athletes, that shows Ronnie Brown during the off season rehabbing his surgically repaired knee.
Percival out, Balfour In:
To all fantasy owners that are in desperate need of a closer, your prayers have been answered. Last night, TB Rays closer, Troy Percival sprained his knee while trying to field a bunt. Grant Balfour took over, but then blew the save. Don't look into this blown save too much, Balfour has been great all season coming out of the bullpen. He's sporting a 1.21 ERA and has an incredible 55 strikeouts in only 37.1 innings pitched. Balfour will step in as the first place Rays closer and has a lot of value going into the final stretch of the season. Its really unclear how long Percival will be out, but he won't be back before the postseason, so pick up Balfour right away knowing that he'll be a reliable source of saves for the rest of your fantasy season.
Aug 13 2008
Fast, cocky, arrogant, and full of themselves are ways to best describe most NFL wide receivers today. Gone, are the days of guys like Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Steve Largent, Lance Alworth and Art Monk. Today, it's all about making the big play, scoring a touchdown and having the right celebration dance. These might not be the type of players you want on your team, but they're the kind of players you need on your fantasy team. Last year, I was fortunate enough to draft both Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, neither of which I'm fond of, but they were invaluable members of my team. WR's are not critical to succeed in fantasy football, but having good ones can make things a lot easier for you. These are the guys that step up when your running back gets hurt or your QB has a bad game. Here are the Fantasy Factors top 15 wide receivers.
1. Terrell Owens - Since 2000, Owens has been the most consistent producer of fantasy points out of the wide receiver position. Each season, he racks up over 1000 yards and scores over 10 TD's. He's big, he's physical, he's fast, he wants the ball all the time and he actually seems to be pretty happy in Dallas. Owens and Romo have great chemistry and it will continue through this year. With other targets like Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten, plus the fact that they're going to take the leash off Marion Barber this year, this offense appears to be setup for a big year and Owens will be one of the players benefiting the most. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1400 yards, 15 TD's
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
2. Randy Moss - "The Freak" had one of the best seasons in the history of the NFL last year. 98 receptions for 1493 yards and a record setting 23 TD receptions. After having such a great season, there's really only one way to go... down. With Donte Stallworth gone, there will be more attention on Moss this year and he'll see a lot of double coverage. However, even being double covered Moss should still see the ball plenty of times and get his fair share of TD's. So unless his post season was a precursor of things to come... Fantasy Factor Projection: 88 catches, 1300 yards, 13 TD's
3. Larry Fitzgerald - The best wide receiver to ever come out of Pitt, may one day be the best wide receiver in the history of the NFL. In two of his first 4 years in the league, Fitzgerald had over 100 receptions and double digits in TD's. To be that good, that fast, on a mediocre team, is astonishing. From Week Two through Week 14, Fitzgerald had at least 70 yards receiving. In that time he went over 120 yards three times and scored at least one TD in 7 of those games. His average receiving yards per game was above 90. Teams have been trying, since his years at Pitt, to figure out a way to stop him and have been unsuccessful. The only question mark surrounding him is which quarterback will be throwing him passes this year, Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner. I don't think it will really matter. As long as he stays healthy, he'll have another big year. Fantasy Factor Projection: 101 catches, 1500 yards, 14 TD's
4. Marques Colston - After having a stellar rookie season in 2006, Colston got off to a slow start in 2007. He only caught 26 passes in the first 7 weeks of the season, failed to reach the 100 yard mark in any of those games and scored a total of 2 TD's. Then came Week 8 against San Francisco and he was back to form faster than you could say "flash in the pan". Colston caught three touchdowns that week and his season really took off. He had over 90 yards receiving in 7 of his last 10 games and scored at least one touchdown in 5 of them. Needless to say, the man was a catching machine in the second half of the season. This year is shaping up to be a good one for Colston with addition of Jeremy Shockey that should really add to the Saints already potent offense. Fantasy Factor Projection: 102 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD's
5. Steve Smith - No, not the wide out on the New York Giants. Or the guy down the hall from me in the finance department. I'm talking about the speedy, uncoverable wide receiver of the Carolina Panthers who punched his own teammate in practice. It wasn't one of his better moments and neither was the 2007 season. After starting quarterback Jake the Snake Delhomme was lost for the season, Smith's season went downhill. Aside from a couple big reception / yardage games, Smith only scored 7 TD's and barely reached the 1000 yard mark (1002 yards). He won't score any TD's in his first two games this year either due to suspension. However, there is reason to be optimistic for Smith this year. Delhomme is back from his injury and ready to go, old teammate Muhsin Muhammad is back and the Panthers offense is looking very sharp so far this year. In 2005, he caught over 100 passes and scored 12 TD's and that was during a season when Smith was the only target in the offense. As long as he doesn't go punching any more teammates... Fantasy Factor Projection: 85 catches, 1200 yards, 8 TD's (14 games)
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
6. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - With Chad Johnson hogging the spotlight every chance he gets, the man with the last name that sounds like a question about someone's mother, quietly led the Bengals in receptions and TD's. Each year in the NFL, Houshmandzadeh has gotten better and better and shows no signs of slowing down. Maybe its because they don't want to see Johnson do some outlandish touchdown celebration, but TJ has caught more TD passes in the each of the last two years. Houshmandzadeh is a better receiver, period. If you're faced with the choice between the two, go with the better receiver, not with the better talker. Fantasy Factor Projection: 110 catches, 1300 yards, 15 TD's
7. Andre Johnson - One of the NFL's best kept secrets plays in the black hole known as the Houston Texans franchise. Last season, Johnson caught 60 passes for 851 yards and 8 TD's. That sounds respectable until you see that he only played in 9 games. Playing in the tough AFC South division though, Johnson will get matched up against pretty good teams but as ridiculous as it sounds, that could be a good thing. The Texans will get behind in games and be forced to throw the ball a lot. Johnson could really clean up then. Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 catches, 1400 yards, 12 TD's
8. Braylon Edwards - Last year, Edwards, like a lot of Brownies, had a breakout year last year. The former third overall pick from Michigan is starting to live up to his potential and is doing it in a big way. Last year, Edwards finished second in touchdown receptions with 16. This past off season, the Browns acquired another target for Anderson in Donte Stallworth but I believe he'll stick with his go to guy. Fantasy Factor Projection: 80 catches, 1300 yards, 11 TD's
9. Reggie Wayne - As the future Hall of Famer, Marvin Harrison, slows down, teammate Reggie Wayne has gotten faster and better. With Harrison on the shelf for most of last year, Wayne became Peyton's go to guy. He recorded career highs in receptions, yards and TD's (104, 1510, 10). This year though, with Harrison and Dallas Clark healthy again and Joseph Addai and Anthony Gonzalez in the passing mix, Wayne figures to be getting the ball less. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 11 TD's
10. Jerricho Cotchery - Another ripple effect from the Brett Favre trade is Jerricho Cotchery. Over the past couple years, Jerricho has posted some good numbers despite not really having a good quarterback to throw him the ball. With Favre behind center, he figures to have a career year and in my opinion is a great sleeper. This year, Cotchery will give all his Jerricholics a season they will never EEEEEEEVER forget a-gain! Fantasy Factor Projection: 95 catches, 1400 yards, 10 TD's
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
11. Chad Johnson - Ocho Cinco has been one of the most consistent receivers in the NFL since 2003. He's caught more than 86 passes every year since 2003 and scored between 7-10 TD's in each of those seasons. Johnson has always been a good receiver, but nobody, except himself, has considered him to be a great receiver. CJ may not be one of the best, but he would make a great fit on anyone's fantasy team. Don't listen to the hype though, draft based on numbers and performance, not hype and trash talk. Johnson is a third round pick at best. Fantasy Factor Projection: 90 catches, 1200 yards, 9 TD's
12. Plaxico Burress - Love him or hate him, this past February, everyone outside the Boston area was a BIG Plaxico Burress fan. Plax, unlike a lot of the big name receivers isn't known for catching a lot of passes. In fact, the most receptions he's had in a year is only 78. Plax's ability to make big plays is what makes him so valuable. He's reached around 1000 yards and scored double digit TD's in each of the last two years.