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Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09

When this series began, a tangible advantage the Penguins had over the Capitals was in the area of experience. The bulk of the Penguins' roster was in the Stanley Cup final less than a year ago. Additionally, the team added players such as Craig Adams, Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz who have been through the meat grinder of the playoffs and have Stanley Cup rings to show for it.

But entering tonight's contest, the team with all the experience wears red. The Capitals have an immense advantage in Game 7 experience:

CAPITALS

Player Game
Sevens
W-L G-A-Pts
Sergei Fedorov 8 4-4 3-3-6
Nicklas Backstrom 2 1-1 1-1-2
Alex Ovechkin 2 1-1 1-1-2
Alexander Semin 2 1-1 1-0-1
Mike Green 2 1-1 1-0-1
Mike Green 2 1-1 0-1-1
Viktor Kozlov 2 1-1 0-1-1
Brooks Laich 2 1-1 0-1-1
Matt Bradley 3 1-1 0-1-1
Tomas Fleischmann 1 1-0 0-0-0
John Erskine 2 1-1 0-0-0
Eric Fehr 2 1-1 0-0-0
Boyd Gordon 2 1-1 0-0-0
Milan Jurcina 2 1-1 0-0-0
Shaone Morrisonn 2 1-1 0-0-0
Brian Pothier 2 1-1 0-0-0
Tom Poti 2 1-1 0-0-0
David Steckel 2 1-1 0-0-0
Donal Brashear 3 1-2 0-0-0
Chris Clark 3 2-1 0-0-0
Goaltenders Game
Sevens
Minutes W-L GAA SO SV%
Jose Theodore 1 60 1-0 0.00 1 1.000
Simeon Varlamov 1 60 1-0 1.00 0 .933

PENGUINS

Player Game
Sevens
W-L G-A-Pts
Petr Sykora 5 2-3 1-3-4
Pascal Dupuis 2 2-0 3-0-3
Ruslan Fedotenko 2 2-0 3-0-3
Matt Cooke 4 1-3 2-0-2
Bill Guerin 4 2-2 2-0-2
Philippe Boucher 4 2-2 2-0-2
Hal Gill 1 0-1 0-0-0
Chris Kunitz 1 0-1 0-0-0
Miroslav Satan 1 0-1 0-0-0
Craig Adams 2 2-0 0-0-0
Sergei Gonchar 2 0-2 0-0-0

That's all find and dandy, but we're not sure any of these numbers really mean anything. Not in this series which has defied logic in so many instances yet has lived up to expectations.

Teams aren't supposed to have rookie goaltenders see upwards of 30 or more shots a game and not see them not wear down.

Teams aren't supposed to lose their power-play quarterbacks and then gain three goals with the man advantage the next two games.

Players like Miroslav Satan aren't supposed to come off the bench or a demotion to the AHL and contribute two pretty assists.

Players like Mike Green aren't supposed to be nominated for the Norris Trophy then become non-factors in the playoffs.

You're not supposed to see two players score hat tricks in the same series. Let alone in the same game.

And we could dig into the Penguins' or the Capitals' histories in these games. Yes the Penguins have an edge in Game 7's against the Capitals. But when those games were played, only one team had MVP-caliber talent on the roster. Tonight, there will be players fitting that description on both sides of the ice.

Petr Nedved, Kevin Stevens, Joe Juneau or Dale Hunter? None of those names matter. As Gene Collier points out, None of the history between these two franchises has anything to do with what will happen tonight. With the exception of Sergei Gonchar's wonky knee, almost nothing that has happened in the first six games of this series matters.

We can't offer a prediction for tonight's game. Leads have not been safe in this series. And no deficit has been too much to overcome. And far too often, the unexpected or the unfortunate has happened. A bad deflection of a defenseman's stick or a broken stick in a faceoff circle during have helped dictate winners and losers in these first six games. Why would the seventh be any different?

Things are far too even between these two teams to say David Steckel's faceoffs or Rob Scuderi blocked shots will concretely impact the game one way or another. Heck, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, who have played some of the greatest hockey of their splendid careers, haven't been able to turn this series in any one direction for more than a few moments.

We fully expect something like Tom Poti's unlucky deflection or Maxime Talbot's faulty stick to be the difference in tonight's game. Each team is so evenly matched, mistakes or just simple bad luck will be the determining factor.

(Photos: First-Len Redkoles/Getty Images; Second-Nick Wass/Associated Press)


Posted May 13 2009, 12:42 AM by Seth Rorabaugh

Comments

Corse66 wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 8:10 AM

I don't remember to have ever watch a series like this one..

It's a tight series, players give 100% every schift, as Seth pointed out there's MVP caliber players on each side...

I just can't wait 1 AM (Europe time) to see the drop of the puck...

Johnny X wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 8:15 AM

No matter the outcome, there is one thing that we can certainly expect tonight: Plenty of whining by Bruce Boohoo-dreau.

a Habay wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 10:12 AM

This is the best playoff series I've seen in my 24 years of existence...I'm really feeling a goal from an incredibly unlikely source tonight (normally that would be Mark Eaton) So I'll go with Craig Adams...and at least the Caps don't have David Volek.

Post415 wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 10:20 AM

I have no statistics to prove or disprove my statements just my feelings (obviously I’m a girl)

I do not believe this Pens team is as good as last year’s Pens team

I am not sure I want the Pens to win game 7 tonight

I believe this Pens team can beat the Hurricanes or Bruins – and therefore make it to the finals

I do not believe this Pens team can beat the Duck, Red Wings, or Blackhawks

With that said a loss last year in the final and loss this year – I don’t want to become the Buffalo Bills of the NHL

Please respond and tell me how stupid I am to believe this  

Basher McGroinerson wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 10:28 AM

I too would like to see a goal from an unlikely source.  How about Chris Freakin Kunitz???

The only thing he's contributed thus far is a cross check to Varlamov's face.  If you're going to do that, at least make sure the guy doesn't get up, like Ovechkin did with Gonchar.  

Kunitz, you were my favorite player because you allowed us to get rid of Ryan Whitney, but you've completely disappeared lately.  Make yourself heard!  

Basher McGroinerson wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 10:39 AM

Oh, and as for wanting the Pens to lose tonight for fear of what "might" happen in the next 2 rounds, you're right...that is really stupid

NC Dave wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 10:57 AM

For the Pens to become the "Buffalo Bills of the NHL", they would have to lose 4 CONSECUTIVE Cup Finals.

freddyc022 wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 11:25 AM

Seth,

Great post.  I think the key to this game (and every game) is getting up early.  The Pens have been able to score the first goal all three times on the road this series but have not been able to get a two goal lead.  I think they need to load up off the start and try and overwhelm the Caps.  Therefore, how about these lines:

Malkin - Crosby - Guerin - Enough said

Kunitz - Staal - Fedotenko - Recreate the Staal/Kunitz magic from when Kunitz was first traded.  Also match them against Ovie's line when you can for Staals D and Kunitz grit

Cooke - Talbot - Kennedy - Great energy and cycling line.

Dupuis - Adams - Satan - If they go with 12 forwards, if not Dupuis seems to be the odd man out.  Double shift Crosby/Malkin/Staal, it is Game 7 after all.

Thoughts?

Basher McGroinerson wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 11:33 AM

FreddyC, are you Michel Therrien in disguise with all your line changes?  

ericPitt wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 11:44 AM

Coach Disco played Kunitz and Staal together for a few stretches during Game 6.  Nothing real came of it.  Kunitz is in a rut of his accord because he refuses to shoot the puck when he has the chance to, even when they're of a fairly percentage.

Fleury has to dig up another Round 1 Game 4 or SCF Game 5 performance if the Penguins are going to win this game.

a Habay wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 4:19 PM

And one of those four consecutive loses would have to have the equivalent of a missed field goal which would be a missed empty netter.  And yes, to not want the Pens to win tonight and be worried about what team the Pens would play in the coming round is foolish and stupid...and shows you might not be that great of a fan.  Sorry

cerimorgan wrote re: Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Wed, May 13 2009 4:40 PM

> no deficit has been too much to overcome

Technically, a 2 goal deficit has been too much to overcome.

The only deficits greater than 1 goal in the series were when the Penguins were up 3-1, 4-2, and 5-3 in Game 4 and when the Capitals were up 3-1 in Game 2.  In all cases, the lead was only shrunk to a 1 goal deficit at most (or not at all in the case of the 5-3 deficit in Game 4).

Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09 wrote Expect the unexpected - 5-13-09
on Thu, Jul 9 2009 2:30 PM

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