Empty Netters

Bookmark and Share

The Penguins, hockey and more, by Seth Rorabaugh.

Join to add your comments
Guide to commenting

Syndication

Penguins Blogs/Sites

General Hockey Blogs

General Hockey Sites

Empty Netters Stuff

Pittsburgh Sports Blogs

Atlantic Division Blogs

Northwest Division Blogs

Pacific Division Blogs

Southeast Division Blogs

Northeast Division Blogs

Central Division Blogs

Adams Division Sites

Smythe Division Sites

Norris Division Sites

Doubling up - 4-8-09

(Why does Sidney Crosby look like he got stuck with Chun-Li in a "Street Fighter II" tournament?)

With his two goals last night, Sidney Crosby joined Evgeni Malkin as the Penguins' second 100-point scorer of the season. You would think teams with two or more or 100-point scorers would have some sort of distinct advantage once it moves on to the postseason. The statistics tell another story.

Since the league adopted a playoff format of four rounds of best-of-seven-games series in 1986-87, there have been 25 different teams with two or more 100-point scorers, excluding this season's Penguins. Of those 25, only four have lifted the Cup later that spring. That's 16 percent. Furthermore, only five teams have even advanced to a conference final.

Take a look:

Team Won Stanley Cup
Season
Players (Points)
Avalanche 1995-96 Joe Sakic (120)
Peter Forsberg (116)
Penguins 1991-92 Mario Lemieux (131)
Kevin Stevens (123)
Oilers 1987-88 Wayne Gretzky (149)
Mark Messier (111)
Oilers 1986-87 Wayne Gretzky (183)
Jari Kurri (108)
Mark Messier (107)
Team Lost in Conference Final
Season
Players (Points)
Penguins 1995-96 Mario Lemieux (161)
Jaromir Jagr (149)
Ron Francis (119)
Team Lost in Second Round
Season
Players (Points)
Senators 2005-06 Dany Heatley (103)
Daniel Alfredsson (103)
Blues 1992-93 Craig Janney (106)
Brett Hull (101)
Penguins 1992-93 Mario Lemieux (160)
Kevin Stevens (111)
Rick Tocchet (109)
Ron Francis (100)
Sabres 1992-93 Pat LaFontaine (148)
Alexander Mogilny (127)
Rangers 1991-92 Mark Messier (107)
Brian Leetch (102)
Blues 1990-91 Brett Hull (131)
Adam Oates (115)
Blues 1989-90 Brett Hull (113)
Adam Oates (102)
Kings 1989-90 Wayne Gretzky (142)
Luc Robitaille (101)
Kings 1988-89 Wayne Gretzky (168)
Bernie Nicholls (150)
Penguins 1988-89 Mario Lemieux (199)
Rob Brown (115)
Paul Coffey (113)
Flames 1987-88 Hakan Loob (106)
Mike Bullard (103)
Team Lost in First Round
Season
Players (Points)
Lightning 2006-07 Vincent Lecavalier (108)
Martin St. Louis (102)
Mighty Ducks 1998-99 Teemu Selanne (107)
Paul Kariya (101)
Bruins 1992-93 Adam Oates (142)
Joe Juneau (102)
Nordiques 1992-93 Mats Sundin (114)
Joe Sakic (105)
Kings 1991-92 Wayne Gretzky (121)
Luc Robitaille (107)
Flames 1990-91 Theoren Fleury (104)
Al MacInnis (103)
Oilers 1988-89 Jari Kurri (102)
Jimmy Carson (100)
Kings 1987-88 Luc Robitialle (111)
Jimmy Carson (107)

-Inexplicably, there was one team that didn't even make the post season:

Team Missed Playoffs
Season
Players (Points)
Nordiques 1987-88 Peter Stastny (111)
Michel Goulet (106)

-So clearly, Ray Shero needs to find a way to circumnavigate around the NHL's rules and ignore this trade deadline thing. That way he could trade Crosby before the playoffs begin and pick up a far more reliable 95-point scorer.

(Photos: Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press)


Posted Apr 08 2009, 05:23 by Seth Rorabaugh

Comments

WilliamBeans wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 10:51

Yeah, but a lot of those pairs were linemates.  It's better to have two lines each with a 100 pt guy than an offense based mostly on Oates to Hull, for example.

Bones wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 11:00

Good point WilliamBeans. That's what impresses me the most about Sid & Geno, they accumulate a lot of their points away from each other.

Did Sakic and Forsberg play on the same line when they were putting up big numbers?

meestro wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 11:37

Seth, I figured I'd post this here, where it's most likely to get read.  You took a jab at Fleury last night for letting that puck sit there on the first goal.  Granted, he definitely misplayed it off of his stick, but I think you forgot that if he had played it when it was sitting there, he would have been penalized.  It wasn't in the trapezoid.

revo wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 12:15 PM

Actually, the statistics don't tell a different story. The statistics say these teams are better off.

Using the same metric, there have been 327 teams without 2+ 100 point scorers, those teams have won 18 cups or 5.5%.

I'd take my 16% chance over the 5.5% chance.

Furthermore, you look at 22 years and say that teams with 2+ 100 point scorers win the cup "only" 16% of the time. But only half of those years (87,88,89,90,91,92,93,96,99,06,07) had a team entered with 2+ 100 point scorers. In those 11 years, 4 times one of the teams with 2+ 100pt scorers won the cup (36%)...

So when one or more teams are in the playoffs with 2 scorers with 100+ pts one of them wins 36% of the time.

In your analysis it would be impossible to have 100% success, for example in 1987-88 there were 4 teams with 2+ 100 point scorers and only one of them could win.

revo wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 12:25 PM

or even simpler at the beginning of the year you have a 1/30 chance of winning (3%)...making the playoffs you have a 1/16 (6%) so still even though the 16% is an awkward stat it is better than 3% of 6%.

gregenstein wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 12:59 PM

Any team with Hakan Loob should at least stand a chance.

Didn't Gretzky have a couple of 200 point seasons? It appears that is the true kiss of death...having someone score SOOO often obviously angers the keepers of karma and prevents you from even entering the playoffs.

Buckles wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 1:19 PM

Seth, correct me if I am wrong here, but I believe the 2005-06 Senators lost in the second round to the Buffalo Sabres.  The Conference Final that year was the Sabres-Hurricanes, with the Hurricanes moving on and winning the Stanley Cup over the miracle Oilers.  

Bob-o wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 1:58 PM

Seth, what is the email address that you use to receive pictures? I've looked around the site for a while and can't track down where its at. I have some good pics from Tampa last night.  

DFlash02 wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 2:17 PM

Seth, nice SF2 reference... I never had the pleasure (?) of participating in a SF2 tourney (mostly because I believe fighters are the bane of my existence), let alone stuck with Chun Li.

Bones wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 2:52 PM

I always preferred Mortal Kombat to Street Fighter.

cscott wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 3:30 PM

according to this, all we gotta do is make the finals, and the Cup's ours.

once again, like mentioned above, increasing our odds, as we only have to win three rounds :P

MoreCowBell wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 4:05 PM

Was Paul Stastny even born in 1987?  111 points is an impressive feat for an infant.  Not to shabby for a 30-something year old Peter Stastny either.

gpclay wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 4:15 PM

Interesting analysis and good comments!

Am I the only one who had a hard time looking past the 1992-1993 and 1995-1996 Penguins teams on this list?  Those were two of the finest teams ever on the ice in Pittsburgh and they both lost to teams that they would probably beat 80% of the time in a seven-game series.  The 1996 finals would have been sick between the Avs and Pens; instead we got a sweep.

Bones wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 4:17 PM

'92-'93 team was the best in franchise history. Tragic ending though...

Disgruntled Goat wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 4:50 PM

The '95-'96 team doesn't belong in the same conversation as the '92-'93 team or any of the Cup teams.  Although they were an offensive juggernaut, their defensive corps was below average at best.  Behind Sergei Zubov (who would be run out of town shortly thereafter) they were manned by a bunch of rejects and retreads like Chris Joseph, JJ Daigneault, Francois LeRoux, Dmitri Mironov, Chris Tamer, Stefan Bergkvist, Corey Foster and Brad Lauer.  That being said, they won their division and were probably a broken foot away from the finals.  That series would have been a lot of fun.

Seth Rorabaugh wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 6:16 PM

Thanks for the heads up on the Senators and Paul/Peter Statsny guys. This was done with not nearly enough sleep. +1.

Seth Rorabaugh wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 6:33 PM

Bob-o, Please send to srorabaugh@post-gazette.com. Thanks!

DigitalGypsy66 wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 7:04 PM

92-93 with four players with 100 points or more.  Unbelievable.  

We'll be lucky to have four players LEAGUE WIDE with 100 points or more...

71=MVP wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 11:25 PM

@Revo - strong work.  thanks.

putting the #s in context as you do makes for a more insightful analysis.

71=MVP wrote re: Doubling up - 4-8-09
on Wed, Apr 8 2009 11:26 PM

@DG...ouch.

that Zubov trade still haunts.

Official Pittsburgh Penguins thread 2007/'08 - Page 15 - BuckeyePlanet Ohio State Forums wrote Official Pittsburgh Penguins thread 2007/'08 - Page 15 - BuckeyePlanet Ohio State Forums
on Thu, Apr 9 2009 1:24

Pingback from  Official Pittsburgh Penguins thread 2007/'08 - Page 15 - BuckeyePlanet Ohio State Forums

IllegalCurve.com » Blog Archive » Afternoon Delight: World U-18’s Tomorrow wrote IllegalCurve.com » Blog Archive » Afternoon Delight: World U-18’s Tomorrow
on Mon, Aug 10 2009 2:21

Pingback from  IllegalCurve.com  » Blog Archive   » Afternoon Delight: World U-18’s Tomorrow