Altmire's quandry

Timothy McNulty | November 4, 2009

Jason Altmire saw yesterday's wins by Republicans coming, and said to it might lead fellow moderate Dems to reconsider health care reform and other issues. From The Hill:

Centrist Blue Dog Democrats might see their position strengthened if Democrats suffer broader electoral losses, one Blue Dog member suggested Tuesday.

Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.) argued that an Election Day rebuke for Democratic candidates across the nation could lead some in the party to rethink their plans on healthcare reform and other issues.

"It looks as though the anger that has been boiling up the last couple of months is going to lead to a pretty high turnout from Republicans and from people who are concerned about increased spending," Altmire said Monday evening during an appearance on Fox Business Network.

"And I do think that if the results show Republicans have a pretty good night, that probably is going to lead some Democrats to think that, going into next year, we need to take a second look at the way that we've done a lot of bills we've addressed up to this point," the Pennsylvania congressman added.

But liberal blogger Dave Anderson says that's a formula for dampening Altmire's core support -- and could lead him to lose reelection next year:

I door knocked in Altmire's district in 2006 in support of state candidates and without absolutely no coordination with the Altmire or any federal campaign (just had to get that out there for legal reasons.) I live fifteen minutes south of the district. I routinely work in that district. I know some of the Democratic activists in that district. I have a decent feel for at least the core Democratic areas of the district. For Altmire to win re-election in 2010 while running against a generic Republican instead of Melissa Hart who had become too closely associated with Santorum and high personal negatives combined with laziness in 2006, he needs to have 95% Democratic unity and Democrats turning out at a higher rate than Republicans plus he needs to win independents 60:40 and pick-off some moderate(ish) Republicans. Altmire's expressed desire to slow things down on healthcare means the Democrats in his district will turn out at a rate no higher than and most likely significantly lower than already motivated Republicans. And that means he loses in 2010 to a generic Republican challenger.

(H/t to RealClearPolitics)