Bad times for incumbent mayors

Timothy McNulty | October 26, 2009

Here's an interesting Politico story that's probably making the rounds at the Acklin and Harris campaign offices -- the reelection bids by incumbent mayors (including the president of the US Conf of Mayors, from Seattle) are dropping like flies nationwide:

A series of upsets and close calls in big-city elections is producing the first group of politicians to fall victim to voters' economic frustrations: America's mayors.

While political observers are focused on the outcome of the Nov. 3 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey for early insights into the 2010 midterms, it's in City Hall where the most ominous trend is emerging.

Some incumbent mayors have already lost their races. Others have held on to win-or are likely to win next week-with greatly diminished margins from their previous re-election bids. Either way, local incumbents are bleeding badly after being buffeted by the pressures of high unemployment, low tax revenues and a volatile, impatient electorate.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, a second-term incumbent and president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, was defeated for re-election in an August primary by two candidates with thin political resumes. On October 6, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez fell short in his bid for a third consecutive term, putting the city's top office in Republican hands for the first time in a quarter-century.

Even for mayors who have survived re-election campaigns, the results haven't been pretty. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who beat an incumbent by 18 points to win the seat in 2005, won a second term earlier this year with just 56 percent of the vote despite facing no significant opposition.

In two more elections coming up next month, high-profile mayors are expected to prevail, though by considerably smaller margins than they've been accustomed to winning. Boston's Tom Menino, who barely cracked 50 percent in a September primary election, is drawing support from just 52 percent of likely voters in his bid for a fifth term. New York City's Michael Bloomberg, too, attracted just 52 percent of votes in a recent poll.

In 2005, Menino won by a 35-point landslide while Bloomberg won by close to 20 points.