Specter has $$$, Sestak looks good in poll

Timothy McNulty  | October 15, 2009

Here's Dan Malloy's story in today's PG on the fundraising totals by Specter & Toomey:

WASHINGTON -- In the polls and in fundraising, Republican Pat Toomey is keeping pace with U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in a race for the Republican-turned-Democrat's seat next year.

Campaign finance reports released yesterday showed that Mr. Specter raised $1.82 million from July 1 to Sept. 30; Mr. Toomey was not far behind with $1.55 million.

Mr. Specter got a $1 million boost from a fundraising dinner with President Barack Obama in Philadelphia on Sept. 15 and has the backing of the national party, but Mr. Toomey has the benefit of a riled-up Republican Party.

"I think it's very unusual," G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said of Mr. Toomey's haul.

"It highlights the fact that Republicans are energized to support Toomey given Arlen Specter's switch. It demonstrates, as all the polls do, that this race is likely to be competitive."

A poll taken last week by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Mr. Specter leading Mr. Toomey 42-41.

Mr. Specter switched from Republican to Democrat in April, in part to avoid a primary challenge from Mr. Toomey -- the former congressman who almost beat him in a Republican primary in 2004.

But before he can think about the general election bid for a sixth term, Mr. Specter must first face Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Delaware County, in the Democratic primary. The campaign for Mr. Sestak, who defied the wishes of the national party to run against Mr. Specter, did not make its finance report available yesterday. Third-quarter reports must be filed today.

Mr. Specter does have a vast advantage in total funds. The incumbent has $8.71 million in cash on hand, according to the finance disclosure, while Mr. Toomey is sitting on $1.81 million.

While Specter leads the money race, a new Rasmussen poll has great news for Dem challenger Joe Sestak. Here's Pollster's breakdown:

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
46% Specter, 42% Sestak (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
45% Toomey, 40% Specter (chart)
38% Sestak, 37% Toomey (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Arlen Specter (D): 46 / 52 (chart)
Pat Toomey (R): 52 / 27
Joe Sestak (D): 37 / 34

Here's Real Clear Politics on the poll:

The new numbers represent an eight point jump in support for Sestak and a one point decline for Specter since last month's survey.

It should also be noted that Rasmussen's poll of likely Democratic primary voters shows Sestak winning a much larger percentage of support (and thus has the race significantly closer) than any of the other most recent polls, all of which surveyed registered voters.