Pitt Redshirt Diaries : Penn State

Detroit or bust for Panthers

Paul Zeise — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 05:19:00 GMT

Yep, it really is that simple.

Pitt needs to get to the Final Four this season because (1) the Panthers have the talent to do it (2) they have the experience to do it and (3) now we know they have the bracket to do it.

In fact, I think point three in this case is the most important one as there is no question that the Panthers have an unbelievably favorable draw to get to the Final Four. And I keep hearing about the second round game -- Oklahoma State or Tennesee -- and it is laughable as both of those teams are seeded where they are for a very good reason -- they are both mediocre and or extremely flawed in one way or another.

Then to get to the Elite Eight, we're talking about beating Xavier or a Florida State team who they already beat......

And as No. 2 seeds go, is there a better matchup for Pitt than soft-as-a-pillow, not very athletic and not very strong in the paint Duke? I think DeJuan Blair already has six rebounds in that game and it hasn't started........

There is really no reason Pitt shouldn't make it to the Final Four this year and I agree with those who say if they don't it is a failure on some level, especially considering the talent which is graduating off of this squad.

That being said, here are some of my other very random thoughts about the field of 65.....

1.) Big East coaches and fans swear that basketball was invented in that conference and that it is the greatest basketball conference going. Unfortunately the numbers don't even come close to supporting all of the bravado coming from Big East apologists. Consider -- In the last 20 years -- the ACC has sent 20 teams to the Final Four (or 1/4th of the final four teams in that time), the Big Ten has sent 14 teams to the Final Four and the SEC has sent 12. The almight Big East? How about SIX. That's not a misprint -- in the last 20 years twice as many SEC teams have made it to the Final Four than Big East teams.

Those numbers don't lie -- and perhaps suggest that critics of the Big East who have the audacity to say that the physical, whistle-less style of play in that conference hurts the teams come tournament time are probably more right than they are wrong.....Just sayin'

2.) West Virginia has a tough first round game -- Dayton -- but if the Mountaineers survive, a trip to the Elite Eight is not out of the question as they match up well with Kansas and Michigan State.

3.) There is something that makes me smile about the fact that Arizona State and Minnesota are in the field and North Carolina State and Kentucky are not. The delusional fans of both the Wolfpack and Wildcats ran good and successful coaches out of town and now they are getting what they deserved.

4.) There always seems to be a No. 12 seed which upsets a No. 5 and this year I'd say South No. 5 Illinois and Midwest No. 5 Utah are the teams in that category most ripe for an upset.

5.) The Big Ten is always so easy to pick on -- and the delusional arrogance of many Big Ten fans makes it fun as well -- but Purdue might be the most underrated team in the field and frankly, if I had to pick a non-top four seed who is capable of getting to the Final Four it might be the Boilermakers. They defend, they rebound and they are healthy now. They also have the most vulnerable No. 1 seed and least tested No. 2 seed standing in their way.

6.) An unknown who could make some noise is North Dakota State, the No. 14 seed in the Midwest. The Bison are tough, they have some big guys who can play and they are balanced and play great defense. They also get Kansas, which has been inconsistent.

7.) As I predicted, the debate between Connecticut and Memphis for a No. 1 seed was silly because the two will have an opportunity to prove it if they both make it to the Regional Finals as they would then play each other for the right to get to the Final Four.

8.) There are a lot of teams who are capable of either losing in the first round or getting all the way to the Elite Eight. Among them are Tennessee, Texas, MIssissippi State, Florida State, Arizona, Wake Forest, Ohio State. UCLA and LSU. All of them have plenty of talent and all of them have been very inconsistent or have at least one fatal flaw which will likely prohibit them from playing to their potential.

9.) The more I look at Pitt's bracket, the more I think the Panthers will not only get to the Final Four, they will get there without breaking a sweat....

10.) The Big Ten and SEC could both be eliminated before the Sweet 16. The ACC and Big East are both capable of getting three teams to the Final Four.

And finally, like I wrote in my pre-backet ramblings....

11.) Pitt fans have to love the fact that, at least in a very small way, the Panthers contributed to Penn State being left out of the field because the Nittany Lions are the ones who ended the series (for a variety of mostly ridiculous rationalizations) and well, the biggest argument against Penn State getting into the field was a lousy non-conference schedule which led to a low RPI and Strength of Schedule ranking.....

Florida is No.1, but Texas got my vote

Ray Fittipaldo — Sun, 07 Dec 2008 19:12:00 GMT

The final AP poll is out and Florida will carry the No. 1 ranking into the BCS national title game against No. 2 Oklahoma. The Gators received 50 first-place votes and the Sooners had nine. The final six first-place votes went to Texas. I was one of those six voters who cast a first-place vote for the Longhorns. Apparently, voters were swayed by the way the Gators and Sooners finished the season. While it was certainly impressive to watch those teams play down the stretch, I tend to look at the season on the whole when voting. So here is my reasoning for voting Texas No. 1.

Florida lost to Mississippi at home.

Oklahoma lost to Texas

Texas lost to Texas Tech on the road.

I really believe Texas would be playing for the national title had Texas Tech not been blown out by Oklahoma. That's why I'll be anxious to watch how the Big 12 teams fare in bowl games. I want to know if these offenses, especially Oklahoma's, are off the charts great, or are the defenses in the league just god awful?

Here's my final regular-season ballot:

1. Texas
2. Oklahoma
3. Florida
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Texas Tech
8. Ohio State
9. Utah
10. Boise State
11. Oklahoma State
12. TCU
13. Cincinnati
14. Michigan State
15. Virginia Tech
16. Georgia Tech
17. Oregon
18. Pitt
19. Georgia
20. Missouri
21. Northwestern
22. Mississippi
23. Oregon State
24. Boston College
25. Ball State

Week 13 predictions (including the big I-AA games)

Ray Fittipaldo — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:07:00 GMT

Week 13 predictions

Pitt at Cincinnati: Cincinnati can take a big step toward claiming its first Big East championship by beating the Panthers. The Bearcats also have the added incentive never having beaten Pitt in seven previous tries. Pitt’s defense will keep it close, but the Bearcats will win, 21-17.

Penn State vs. Michigan State: The Spartans are the only obstacle between Penn State and its first Rose Bowl since 1994. If Darryl Clark can manage the game and not turn the ball over, the Lions will be on their way to Pasadena. Pack your bags, Penn State fans. The Spartans will make it interesting, but the Lions will prevail, 28-24.

West Virginia at Louisville: These two teams have played some classic games over the past few years, but this year’s contest doesn’t figure to live up to past ones. The Mountaineers and Cardinals are both experiencing down years, but the boys from Morgantown still have something to play for. Hey, it’s the Big East! WVU keeps its Big East title hopes alive, 27-21.

Michigan at Ohio State: They say you throw the record book in this game, but Rich Rodriguez would like to throw out some of his players. The Wolverines are not going to a bowl game for the first time in 33 years and will have a losing season for the first time since 1967. No matter what the emotions are for this game, I don’t see Michigan having enough to make this game close. I like the Buckeyes in a romp, 42-10.

BYU at Utah: Utah can clinch a second BCS berth in five years by beating the Cougars. The Utes have had the good fortune of playing all of their difficult games at home. They beat Oregon State and TCU by field goals. Now they’ll do the same to BYU, 24-21.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma: Get ready for another Big 12 shootout. The Sooners are averaging 51.4 points per game and the Red Raiders 47.9 per game. Oklahoma’s only loss came when Colt McCoy was able to take advantage of the Oklahoma defense. Texas Tech can do the same, but I’ll take the Sooners because they’re at home, 49-42.

Holy Cross at Colgate: Holy Cross has not won a Patriot League championship since 1991. That was the last great Crusaders team. They finished 11-0 and ranked No. 3 in the final Division I-AA poll that season, but they didn’t get to compete in the Division I-AA playoffs because the Patriot League did not allow its teams to take part at that time. Now the Patriot League champ gets an automatic bid. Look for HC quarterback Dominic Randolph to pass the Crusaders back to glory, 31-28.

Yale at Harvard: Another big Division I-AA game. Harvard can clinch at least a share of the Ivy League title with a victory. The Crimson’s only loss came at Brown back in September. Look for Harvard to pull it out at home, 24-17.

Week 12 predictions

Ray Fittipaldo — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:49:00 GMT

Last week: 3-4; Season: 34-26

Penn State vs. Indiana: Remember how the Lions fell apart in 1999 after losing their perfect season and a shot at the national championship game? Well, the Indiana Hoosiers weren’t on the schedule at the end of that season. The Lions rebound in a big way, 56-14.

Notre Dame at Navy: A friend of mine sent me a news flash earlier this week. It read that Charlie Weis was interested in the Tennessee job, but backed out because he found out that Rocky Top was a song and not a flavor of ice cream. That's funny stuff. It's been a Rocky Road for Weis lately, but Notre Dame will get back on track this week against the Midshipmen and avenge last year's loss. The Irish take Weis off the hot seat for one week, 27-21.

Texas at Kansas: Another coach who requires XL clothing is having a rough time of it. Mark Mangino hasn't struggled like this since his one season stint at Ellwood City. What has happened to the Jayhawks? They played in a BCS bowl last season, but have lost three of their past four and have given 45 points or more in each of those losses. It doesn’t figure to get any better for Mangino’s squad this week against the high-flying Longhorns. I like Texas big, 50-30.

South Carolina at Florida: Nothing would make Steve Spurrier happier than beating his old team. OK, almost nothing. Seeing Phil Fulmer get fired at Tennessee still has the 'ol ball coaching smiling. He won't have a grin on his face after playing in the Swamp. The Gators keep their momentum going upward in the BCS with another big win, 45-17.

North Carolina at Maryland: Is there a more up and down team than the Terrapins? They own three victories against ranked teams, but also have some losses that make you shake your head, like the early-season setback to Middle Tennessee State. It’s tempting to take the Terrapins because they’re 5-0 at home, but I’m going with the more consistent team. The Tar Heels win, 30-21.

Can Pitt play Penn State in a bowl game?

Ray Fittipaldo — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:39:00 GMT

There were lots of questions from interested readers this week about the possibility of Pitt and Penn State playing in a bowl game. And the answer is most likely no.

The only way Pitt and Penn State can meet in a bowl game is if both qualify for the BCS because the Big East and Big Ten do not share any bowl affiliations. But even if both qualify for the BCS it’s highly unlikely.

If Penn State is wins the Big Ten championship, the Lions will go to the Rose Bowl to play the Pac-10 champion, most likely USC. The only way the opponent wouldn’t be USC is if the Trojans are one of two teams to play for the national title in the Orange Bowl. At this late stage, the Trojans would have to jump four other teams to vault to one of the top two spots.

Even if USC did make the national title game, the Rose Bowl would have to select Pitt to play in the game, and it’s not likely that the organizers for the game would want to two east coast teams in the game. Their goal is to sell tickets and Pitt does not traditionally travel well for bowl games.

I’d put the chances at 1 percent, which is better than the likelihood of these two teams playing while JoePa is still around.

Here is the PG ballot for this week:

1. Alabama
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Florida
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Oklahoma State
10. Boise State
11. Utah
12. Missouri
13. Georgia
14. Ball State
15. LSU
16. TCU
17. BYU
18. Michigan State
19. North Carolina
20. Pitt
21. Cincinnati
22. California
23. South Carolina
24. Florida State
25. Central Michigan

Week 11 predictions

Ray Fittipaldo — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 22:44:00 GMT

Last week: 1-5; Season: 31-22

Pitt vs. Louisville: If this matchup came during basketball season it would be something to be excited about. But we’ll have to wait until Jan. 17 to see a couple of top five hoops teams battle it out. This is a game between two so-so football teams. Louisville somehow managed to lose to Syracuse last week. That alone gives me reason to pick the Panthers, 30-21.

Penn State at Iowa: This game could be tricky for the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes have the top-rated rushing defense in the Big Ten and the No. 3 scoring defense, giving up just 18 points per game. Penn State can afford to be patient on offense because the Iowa offense is not prolific. I like Iowa to keep it close, but the Lions will win, 23-16.

West Virginia at Cincinnati: The Mountaineers finally appear to be rounding into form with a healthy Pat White. The Bearcats have six wins, but none against teams that are currently ranked. Look for the Mountaineers to keep their winning streak alive, 28-17.

TCU at Utah: The winner has the inside track to a BCS bowl game. Undefeated Utah showed some signs of wear at New Mexico State last week when they eked out a 13-10 victory. TCU’s only loss came at Oklahoma and the Horned Frogs have run it up on just about everyone else on the schedule. I’ll take the Horned Frogs in a mild upset, 34-33.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina: A victory would give the Yellow Jackets the edge in the ACC Coastal Division and a place in the conference championship game. Other than an early-season slip-up against Virginia Tech, the Tar Heels have been impressive at home. North Carolina will muddy the ACC waters even more with a 27-20 win.

Alabama at LSU: Nick Saban won a national championship at LSU in 2003. Now his road to a second national title goes through Baton Rouge. The fact is this is not a very good LSU team. The Crimson Tide will roll to a big victory, 34-14.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders must demonstrate that they can come down from the high of beating top-ranked Texas last week. This is a tough game for them for two reasons. Oklahoma State has a great running game and a stout defense, two components that shorten the game. I’ll go out on a limb and say the Cowboys pull the upset, 27-26.

Penn State can't buy a break

Ray Fittipaldo — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 02:20:00 GMT

Yet another reason why the BCS is bogus…

Penn State just can’t buy a break when it comes to the national championship race. Just when it appeared the Lions controlled their own destiny they learned tonight that they need another team to lose in the final month in order to play for the national championship.

Penn State is No. 3 in the BCS standings again, having been leapfrogged by Texas Tech after the Red Raiders upended Texas Saturday night.

Penn State is No. 3 in the BCS standings behind Texas Tech, thanks to low rankings by the six computers that are factored into the BCS formula. The Lions were No. 2 in the coaches' poll and Harris poll, which comprises two-thirds of the formula.

The knock against Penn State is its schedule, but take a close look and it’s hard to figure how Texas Tech played a tougher schedule.

Penn State played one Division I-AA team – Coastal Carolina. Texas Tech played two – Eastern Washington and Massachusetts.

Texas Tech’s other non-conference games came against a one-win SMU team and 4-4 Nevada squad. In Big 12 play, the Red Raiders have beaten Kansas State, Nebraska, Kansas and Texas. Only Texas is ranked in the BCS standings at No. 4.

Penn State’s non-conference games came against Syracuse, Temple and Oregon State. By virtue of the blowout victory over Oregon State, which beat USC earlier this season, Penn State’s non-conference schedule qualifies as more difficult.

In Big Ten play, Penn State beat Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State. Only Ohio State is in the BCS standings. The Buckeyes are No. 9, so I suppose Texas Tech’s conference schedule can be considered marginally better than Penn State’s.

But when you take into account that Penn State’s victory over Ohio State came on the road while Texas Tech’s triumph over Texas came at home, there is now way the Red Raiders should be ranked ahead of the Lions.

I’ll be the first to say that Texas Tech has an argument to jump over Penn State if the Red Raiders beat Oklahoma State and win at Oklahoma in the next two weeks, but it shouldn’t have happened so soon.

What do you expect when computers decide which two teams play for the national title? We should be used to this B(C)S by now.

Here is my AP ballot, which has absolutely nothing to do with the BCS and the national championship followed by a link to the new AP top 25:

1. Alabama
2. Penn State
3. Texas Tech
4. Texas
5. Florida
6. USC
7. Oklahoma
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ohio State
10. Boise State
11. Utah
12. Missouri
13. Georgia
14. LSU
15. TCU
16. Ball State
17. BYU
18. Michigan State
19. Maryland
20. North Carolina
21. Georgia Tech
22. West Virginia
23. California
24. Pitt
25. Northwestern

The Oct. 26 PG ballot and other BCS musings

Ray Fittipaldo — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 17:58:00 GMT

One of the questions voters in the Harris poll and coaches’ poll have to ask themselves in the coming week is something new: Just how good is the SEC this year?

We're used to the SEC being the dominant conference in the country year in and year out, but that's not the case this season.

Only four SEC teams are ranked and no others are even receiving votes in the AP poll. One of the ranked teams, LSU, has given up 50 or more in two its past three games. This is not a banner year for the SEC. Yes, Alabama, Florida and Georgia are legitimate, but that makes for a very top-heavy league.

Georgia and Florida play this week with the winner likely advancing to the SEC title game to face Alabama. Penn State fans had better be rooting for Florida because Alabama blew out Georgia on its home field earlier this month.

And speaking of the Penn State rooting cause, the last chance for Texas to lose is this week in Lubbock when the Longhorns travel to take on the undefeated Red Raiders. If Texas gets past this game, it’s clear sailing to an undefeated season. There is no way Missouri or Kansas will pull the upset in the Big 12 title game.

People keep saying there is now way Alabama and Texas each go unbeaten, but it’s looking more and more likely to me.

Here is the Post-Gazette ballot followed by a link for the new top 25

Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn State
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas Tech
9. Oklahoma State
10. Ohio State
11. Boise State
12. Utah
13. Missouri
14. LSU
15. Ball State
16. TCU
17. Minnesota
18. BYU
19. Tulsa
20. Florida State
21. Troy
22. Michigan State
23. Maryland
24. North Carolina
25. Notre Dame

New top 25 link

Here’s another January scenario that very well could happen. If Penn State loses to Iowa, Indiana or Michigan State and finishes the season with a 7-1 conference record, the Lions are not assured of going to the Rose Bowl despite its head-to-head record with Ohio State. In the event that there is a three-way tie with Penn State, Ohio State and Minnesota with 7-1 records, Minnesota will be the Big Ten representative in the Rose Bowl.

According to the Big Ten tiebreaker, Ohio State would drop out because it had the worst overall record with two losses. Since Minnesota and Penn State did not meet, and no other tiebreaker applies, the conference’s Bowl Championship Series representative would be determined by which team had last won the conference’s automatic BCS berth.

Penn State represented the conference in 2005.

And that’s how the Golden Gophers can get to go to the Golden State.

How good are Penn State's chances? and the PG AP ballot

Ray Fittipaldo — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:18:00 GMT

The first Bowl Championship Series standings will be revealed later on this evening, and Texas and Alabama are expected to be the top two teams. Penn State is expected to be third.

Much has been said and written in the past couple of weeks about how Penn State is sitting pretty at No. 3 because Texas and Alabama have such difficult schedules while Penn State, by comparison, has an easy path to an undefeated regular season record.

But how difficult are the schedules of Texas and Alabama?

First let’s examine Alabama’s schedule. The Crimson Tide play at Tennessee this week and finish at up against Arkansas State, at LSU and then Mississippi State and Auburn at home.

The only difficult game among those five is the visit to LSU, and the Tigers have not been overly impressive the past few weeks. They needed a late touchdown to win at South Carolina on Saturday. Tennessee and Auburn are experiencing down years.

If Alabama gets past those five teams the Crimson Tide will likely play Florida or Georgia in the SEC title game.

It would not be a shock if the Tide finish undefeated.

Texas has a more difficult road, but it’s not impossible. The Longhorns play host to undefeated Oklahoma State this week and then travel to undefeated Texas Tech. Both teams are largely untested. Yes, Oklahoma State beat Missouri, but that’s the only marquee win. Texas Tech hasn’t beaten a ranked team.

After that, The Longhorns play host to Baylor, visit Kansas and finish up at home versus Texas A&M.

In the Big 12 title game, the Longhorns will face either Missouri or Kansas.

So don’t make your reservations for the national championship game just yet, Penn State fans. The Lions could be the odd man out come December.

Here is the Post-Gazette’s AP ballot for this week followed by a link for the new AP top 25.

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn State
4. Florida
5. USC
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas Tech
9. LSU
10. Ohio State
11. Oklahoma State
12. Boise State
13. Utah
14. Ball State
15. Missouri
16. Pitt
17. South Florida
18. TCU
19. Minnesota
20. Georgia Tech
21. Kansas
22. Boston College
23. BYU
24. Virginia Tech
25. Tulsa

New top 25 link

Week 8 predictions

Ray Fittipaldo — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 15:34:00 GMT

What bad luck or officiating gaffes await Penn State this time against Michigan? I know what you’re thinking. Penn State can’t possibly lose to this Michigan team. But the Lions always seem to have some sort of mental block that prevents them from beating the Wolverines whether they’re having a good year or a bad year. I was at the Big House in 2002 when the officials handed Michigan the game with two very questionable calls. That led to Joe Paterno asking the Big Ten Conference for a review of its officiating. Then there was the 2005 game and the timekeeping error that kept the Lions from playing for the national championship. This is probably the worst Michigan team Penn State has faced in years, but as Penn State fans have learned expect the unecpected.

Last week: 4-3; Season 23-11.

A sos-so week last week brought me to 12 games over .500 for the season. Here are this week's picks:

Penn State vs. Michigan: Michigan has owned Penn State in recent years, winning nine consecutive games. But this game figures to be different. This might be one of Joe Paterno’s best teams and the Wolverines are struggling in every facet of the game. Couple that wit the fact that the game is at Beaver Stadium, and well, you have the Lions in a blowout, 56-10.

Pitt at Navy: After a tough start to the season that saw Navy give up 41 points to Duke and 35 to Ball State in two losses, the Midshipmen have rebounded with three consecutive victories, including a win at No. 21 Wake Forest. Pitt has won four in a row and will be looking avenge last year’s upset loss at Heinz Field. The Panthers win, but it won’t be easy, 31-24.

Vanderbilt at Georgia: Just when you thought the Commodores had arrived they went and lost to Mississippi State last week. Georgia could be looking ahead to a big game next week at LSU. The Bulldogs get it done at home, 28-20.

Kansas at Oklahoma: Oklahoma’s defense was exposed last week against Texas. Kansas can score with the best of them. The question is: can the Jayhawks score enough? I don’t think so. The Sooners will take this one in another high-scoring affair, 38-35.

Ohio State at Michigan State: The Ohio State offense looked awful against Purdue, but the Buckeyes’ defense has been stingy in Big Ten play. The defense must be strong against Javon Ringer and the Spartans, who love to keep it on the ground. I like the Buckeyes in a low-scoring game, 16-13.

Missouri at Texas: Given the way No. 1 teams have fallen in recent weeks I am tempted to pick the Tigers here. But their uninspired performance at home last week against Oklahoma State tells me not to do it. I’ll go with the Longhorns because they’re at home, 34-28.

BYU at TCU: Everyone believes the Mountain West is going to come down to the last game of the regular season when BYU visits Utah. But TCU is 6-1 with the only loss coming at Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs keep it close, but the Cougars prevail and keep their BCS hopes alive, 27-21.