Welcome back to college football season. The Panthers begin tomorrow with training camp so here are some thoughts, observations and analysis from Paul Zeise, the Post-Gazette's Pitt football reporter.
First, let's clear up some things.....
1.) The idea that Pitt "turned down" a series with Michigan is laughable. The Cliff Notes version is this -- Pitt needed a home-and-home in back-to-back years to replace a Clemson series (Clemson asked out of the contract and Pitt gave in) which was scheduled for 2010-11. Michigan needed a game next year -- the two talked and worked something out for next season but it was clear that they couldn't work out the return trip to Pitt in 2011. When it became clear that Michigan (which agreed to a return trip but not until 2014 or so) couldn't make a return trip in 2011 - the talks died. It wasn't either sides fault, it happens all the time -- teams try to schedule games but sometimes the dates and/or logistics just don't work out. Pitt then turned its focus towards a home-and-home with California (the Pac-10 team) as an opening day ESPN game and it appeared as if that was going to work out but at the last minute Cal. pulled out for whatever reason. Next up was Utah and as you all know, that's how it all came about. Pitt can be criticized for a lot of things and most of them are probably valid -- but the idea that they were ducking Michigan or looking for an easier opponent is silly, particularly when they ended up with an opponent who (a) BEAT Michigan at Michigan last year and (b) has won two BCS bowls in the last five years.
2.) A lot of people have asked me about how Pitt came to be the favorites in the Big East. It is simple -- 24 guys voted and four different teams got first-place votes so it wasn't exactly a unanimous endorsement of Pitt. The difference between the Panthers in this poll and say Cincinnati is simple (who was voted third) -- they both got the same amount of first place votes, Pitt got more seconds and thirds and Cinncy got more fourths and fifths. In other words, this is a year when nobody really has any idea who is going to emerge so everyone who voted took some shots in the dark.
3.) I think it is rather clear to me that five teams - Rutgers, USF, West Virginia, Pitt and Cincinnati -- all could win the Big East, one team is a long shot (and by long shot I mean, extremely long shot), Connecticut, and two teams have absolutely no shot, Louisville and Syracuse.
So here is my easy take on the Big East (in nor particular order among the top five.........
South Florida
They will win the conference because: They have an experienced quarterback in Matt Grothe who makes a lot of plays on his own talents, they have a great defense and they have plenty of speed on both sides of the ball.
They will not win the conference because: They have a lot of holes to fill on the offensive line and they are one of the most undisciplined teams on the planet and often lose games because they take silly penalties and make bad decisions on the field. And as great as Grothe is at times, his decision-making is poor and as a result he seems to keep both teams - the Bulls and their opponents -- in every game.
Pitt
They will win the conference because: They are an experienced and veteran team with a lot of depth, particularly on the defensive line and they should have their best offensive line in a long time. They are also loaded on defense and at the skill positions and should be able to attack teams in a variety of ways.
They will not win the conference because: Did you see the Sun Bowl? And now that offense is going to have the same quarterbacks but be without LeSean McCoy? And generally it is not a good thing to be breaking in new kickers and long snappers when a major part of your overall team philosophy is to win the kicking and field position game.
West Virginia
They will win the conference because: The Mountaineers have an experienced and deep defense which should be much improved over last year's unit (though last year's defense was pretty good). They also have an experienced quarterback and tailbacks and that makes that read-option offense dangerous.
They will not win the conference because: They have some rebuilding to do along the offensive line and while Jarrett Brown is indeed experienced and savy, he isn't Pat White and he doesn't have the ability to break games open with a 75-yard run. And like Pitt, the Mountaineers are breaking in a new kicker, which could be troublesome given the number of close games they play.
Cincinnati
They will win the conference because: This should be the most explosive offense in the league and it features the league's best quarterback in Tony Pike. The Bearcats might struggle some on defense, but college football is an offensive game and no team is more equipped to win a shootout than they are. The Bearcats also are extremely well-coached and disciplined and that is worth a few wins per season as well.
They will not win the conference because: I don't care who you are -- replacing ten starters on one side of the ball is very difficult to overcome. Cincinnati lost ten starters on defense and that will prove to be its downfall. And of course, the Big East didn't do Cincinnati any favors as they must go on the road and play at Rutgers in their opener on Labor Day which means they likely start 0-1 in the conference and that could be tough to overcome.
Rutgers
They will win the conference because: Rutgers should have a great offensive line, a great defensive and a great running game. The Scarlet Knights aren't very fun too watch, they won't be very interesting, but they will grind and grind and grind with their running game and know how to win games 17-14 because they are so discipline.
They will not win the conference because: The Scarlet Knights revival at the end of last season was fueled by an explosive offensive featuring a quarterback and two receivers who are all in the NFL now. In other words, the passing game won't scare anyone and thus the Scarlet Knights won't be able to score enough points in some games to win despite a good defense.
Connecticut
They will win the conference because: Well they won't win the conference, but if they were it would be because some of the other teams knocked each other off and the Huskies won in some kind of a tie-breaker. The defense should be good enough to keep Connecticut in most games and I think Randy Edsall (few coaches in the country get as much out of less than Edsall does annually) will outcoach at least one or two of his opponents coaches and that's worth a few wins but will it be enough, not likely.
They will not win the conference because: There have been very few Pitt opponents over the past two seasons who had worse quarterback play than the Panthers - Connecticut is one of them. And now the quarterbacks must do it without the ability to hand the ball to bruising tailback Donald Brown 30 times a game. This could be a very tough offense to watch.
Louisville
They will win the conference because: They won't and I can't come up with a scenario in which they would. I love the people who work in this athletic department, it is a first-class operation but let's just say from what I can tell, basketball media day can't get here quick enough.
They will not win the conference because: They do have an excellent tailback and Steve Kragthorpe has done a good job of cleaning up some of the bad element that had tainted this roster but this is clearly a team in rebuilding mode. The foundation seems to be solid but it is still a year or two away.
Syracuse
They will not win the conference because: Speaking of rebuilding projects, Greg Robinson left this program in shambles. I met new coach Doug Marrone at Big East media day this year and my first impression is that he is an impressive guy. He has enthusiasm and he seems to have a really good plan and he has revived interest in this program. But let's be serious here - this is a big, big rebuilding job and will require some patience from the fans and fan base.
4.) Some quick observations from Pitt media day today and some general thoughts about the team.
A) A lot of teams talk about working hard in the offseason, this team at least passes the look test in that department. When guys like Joe Thomas and Pat Bostick look like they are chiseled, you know it has been a great offseason. This team looks pretty trim and strong and that's a good thing because this is a team that wants to play blue-collar football.
B) There were legitimate questions about Jonathan Baldwin's maturity and work ethic coming into last season. This quote about him should put that to rest "He is the hardest worker on this team this summer, bar none," quarterback Bill Stull said to me during the media session today. "I think I am a hard worker, but Jonathan was in at 5 in the morning watching film for two hours by the time we got here at 7 to do 7-v-7 drills and whatnot. And he harrassed all of us quarterbacks every day to find someone to throw to him. He really is motivated, he wants to get better, it really, really matters to him. He's got a different look in his eye."
C) Aaron Berry has seemingly put his immaturity behind him and is ready to be the leader of the secondary. Generally Berry has been the happy-go-lucky, loud guy at these kinds of events but today he was quiet, he was reserved and he was focused. He told me it is his time to step up and be the guy.
I've got to run now but keep checking back for more updates an observations throughout camp and don't forget to check in with my daily Pitt football Q&A which will be up and running tomorrow.
Posted
Aug 10 2009, 06:46 PM
by
Paul Zeise
Filed under: Bill Stull, Jarrett Brown, Joe Thomas, Michigan, South Florida, West Virginia, Connecticut, Louisville, Big East, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Aaron Berry, Pat Bostick, Matt Grothe, Elijah Fields, Rutgers, Pat White