Pirates should say no to Sano

Actually, spending $4M on a washed-up 37 year old 4th outfielder, or spending $10M on a starter with a 9.67 ERA - THAT sounds like something the Pirates of Dave Littlefield would do.

If the Pirates are truly trying to be a team that will be in contention for Division championships, they have to take risks on young players with maximum upside.

If they decide to play it safe and only go after signable players with low risk of being busts -- but low probability of being superstars -- well, then, they're continuing the Relentless Pursuit of Mediocrity.

I respectfully disagree, Bob. PghExpatInNJ is correct in his posting. Signing washed up veterans for money that no other team would consider paying them is a Littlefield trademark.

Taking chances on high end prospects, even those that may or may not be 16, is something that must be done by an organization that will absolutely not compete for upper echelon free agents. Signing Sano would be the opposite of what Dave Littlefield would have done. He would sign 36 year olds at the end of their careers for $4 million per year, not 16 year olds with a high ceiling for the same price.

If this organization isn't willing to take some financial risks on young prospects, how will they ever compete? They won't.

(There are risks and there are risks. Of course, a team must take chances and the Pirates do that every June in the draft when they pay large sums of money on untested players. I'm just suggesting to limit the risk. I don't think 16 years olds are worth the risk. -- Bob Smizik)

If the Pirates can't evaluate 20 year olds coming out of college, how the heck are they going to evaluate a 16 year old? Of course, if they DON'T sign him. he'll go on to be a great star. If they DO sign him, he'll be a bust.

Murphy's...oops..ahem..Pirates law...

I'd say better to spend $4 million on a guy who could be a star than $4 million on a guy who was a star 5 years ago. I can't imagine Dave Littlefield ever competing for young talent in this way.

Bob,

Which is the bigger risk? Spending $4-6 million on a young prospect/draftee of spending many times more than that on a free agent or trade acquisition who might be a bust...... remember Matt Morris, Derek Bell, Pat Meares, Jason Kendall, just to name a few? How about all of the high priced free agents over the last 20 years who turned out to be busts? Bob Walk mentioned this very same issue on last night's radio broadcast and he said that he knew what his answer was. I know what mine is too.

You stress his age and the Pirates' past inability to evaluate talent and the fact no one knows for sure if a top pick, especially in baseball, is going to live up to billing.

Well, for one thing, the past is the past. Littlefield is gone and FC and NH have already shown the willingness to sign top talent in Pedro Alvarez as well as going over slot to sign other draft picks in last year's draft.

The most important factor, however, is that we don't know what will become of Miguel Sano. For the relatively small amount of money to invest in Sano compared to what some fringe washed up major leaguers are making these days, it is well worth the risk.

Even if it doesn't work out, no one can accuse the current management team of not trying to acquire the best young talent. This organization, more than perhaps any other in American professional sports, needs to continue to establish some credibility and this would be a good place to do it.

Remember Moneyball, folks?  The Pirates don't have money to spend on high risk / high reward players.  Why put the $4M into a project that might pay off?  Might payoff, someday.  Might.  

But now, the $4M is 8% of the major league payroll.  That is significant.  Make too many mistakes with that type of money and ... you have to trade quality players for next to nothing again and again.  Aging veteran or overpaid unproven, callow teen - it just doesn't matter.  

The Pirates need to get good at the basics of player acquisition, development, and payroll management before swinging for the fences on a longshot.  

But, hey, they are the Pirates.  

they'll end up spending about 4 mil on the #4 pick in the june draft which is considered weak by most standards. what sounds more crazy, taking a chance on a 16 yr. old who could be a bust, or the next Hanley Ramirez, or ending up with someone like Bryan Bullington (top pick in a weak draft)? The Pirates don't need more future #4 starters or "profesional" big leaguers, they need stars.

For all of the people who think that this is a no brainer for the Pirates, just how many $4 million signing bonuses do think this organization has in it's budget? Yes, this franchise needs stars, but more than that, right now they need quality depth in their farm system. Unless the Bucs are going to sign a few big bonus prospects every year, it won't matter.

I personally would be skeptical of any Dominican prospect unless his age can be verified. I think they need to spend their money on beefing up the scouting department, before they start burning cash on a prospect that might be 16, and may someday, just maybe be a major league asset.

I cannot see the Pittsburgh Pirates seriously considering signing Miguel Sano.  He is just too expensive a risk for them.  BUT if their due diligence work confirms his age AND he looks like the real deal, I say go for it.  Of course that’s easy for me to say because it’s not my money. However, whatever they decide,  it sounds as if they are developing a network in the Dominican Republic.  And maybe that is the best news to take from this report.    

Wow Bob stick to what you know.  This is exactly the type of risks the pirates need to be taking.  We are paying Ramon Vasquez 4 million dollars.  Take one look at his stats and let me know if you'd rather take that type of production for 2 years (off the bench for that matter, making him only a part time player) or take a risk on a kid who has the potential to be a superstar.  To me it's a no brainer, and these risks is what would separate this management from the last.

This cannot be considered a "Littlefield" type signing, because DL never paid any attention to the Dominican. And as was stated, 4 mil for a prospect as opposed to 4 mil for a bench player sounds like a fair trade off. From what I gathered from the article, the front office and the scouts are doing their due diligence in evaluating Sano. If they feel that he is worth the money, then pay him. The Pirates need to use this avenue to supplement the draft in order to rebuild the minors. The only question I have, again raised in the article, is if the money will affect other aspects (scouting, drafting, etc.)

"Since the draft began in 1965, 13 pitchers have been taken with the No. 1 overall choice."

What in the Sam Hill does that sentence, or the rest of that entire paragraph, have to do with Sano, who is a position player?

Also, "he looks and plays so much older (than a 16 year-old)."

Hey, all I care about is the last part, how he "plays." If he plays well, age is just a number. Seems to me Miguel Tejada's age issue didn't hurt him when he won the AL MVP. If the scouts -and not just ours- think this kid is the real deal, the next Albert Puhols in Hanley Ramirez's body, I don't care if he's 16 or 18. I'd like him to spend his 20's and 30's in Pittsburgh.

JL,

You can't be serious, the observation that "Since the draft began in 1965, 13 pitchers have been taken with the No. 1 overall choice." coupled with the fact that most of these pitchers have ranged from complete failure to mediocre despite the extensive scrutiny given to first picks by the teams that drafted them is solid evidence that gambling big bucks on early, 100% unproven draft choices is foolish at best -- and it doesn't matter what position they play.  

At least Alvarez has college experience -- but a 16 year old!!!  

Gimme a break!

Don't worry....They won't sign him.

If Sano is the real deal, he'll be scooped up by one of the teams that always gets players like this....ala Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.

This smells of the latest case of the Pirates being used to drive up the price by various agents.

The Pirates can't even sign the likes of a reliever like Will Ohman, without being used as a bargaining chip.

daquido_bazzini is correct.

The Pirates are being used as a bargaining chip, I would think.

If the Yankees really believe this 'kid' is Albert in Hanley's body, then the Yankees won't be denied.

If the Pirates offer 4, the Yankees offer 4.5, and so on.

The only hope for the Pirates is the personality of Rene Gayo.

Otherwise, my opinion is with the lot who say sign him. As Steve Rodgers said, we are paying Ramon Vasquez $4 million.

What you have to remember, is that this $4 million and change is for how many years. Mr Nutting wouldn't be breaking the bank.

Not that he would.

Through most of his tenure one of Littlefield's 'virtues' was his ability to squeeze wins from a severely constricted payroll. Unfortunately he had so few dollars to spend that the team "Drove for 75" wins every year. Money -- or the lack of it -- was a problem. Another problem was the organizations inability to evaluate players. Thus the poverty of the Littlefield drafts, the irrational veteran signings and acquisitions, the veteran fetish. The end result: The Littlefield regime mostly wasted the young talent it had, often so that the major league team could promote washed up veterans who could add little to the team's win column while they cashed their fat paychecks.

If the Pirates must waste millions of dollars that money would be best spent on sensible draft picks and international free agent prospects who subsequently fail to pan out as expected -- that is, on players who could repay the organization and the team's fans with a championship run or two. A failure to take the risks involved with signing a player like Sano would be just another instance in which the Pirates will have revealed their preference for cash instead of wins. That was the Littlefield-McClatchy way, a method this resource poor organization is attempting to surpass.

Does my argument imply that the Pirates must sign Sano? No. It does not. It implies instead that the organization must make a credible effort to sign him and others like him.

TR-SoCal,

"Gimme a break!"

I can see you need one. So easily outraged.

"...early, 100% unproven draft choices is foolish at best -- and it doesn't matter what position they play."

Not exactly sure what an "early" draft choice is. But you can get back to me with a list of the 30 non-pitchers also drafted No. 1 since 1965, before you make the bold claim "it doesn't matter what position they play", or otherwise try and convince anyone that you know what is "foolish at best."

Perhaps the most important point in Dejan's piece is this:

If the Pirates don't at least make a serious offer for Sano, they may not get the chance to compete for future prime talent in the Dominican. There's other teams, according to Dejan's peice, that aren't even getting an oppurtunity to look at Sano. Since the Pirates can't afford high priced free agents, they desperately need to keep this avenue open.

George,

"The only hope for the Pirates is the personality of Rene Gayo. Otherwise, my opinion is with the lot who say sign him. As Steve Rodgers said, we are paying Ramon Vasquez $4 million."

And according to Dejan, the Rene Gayo factor, along with others, is nothing to be sniffed at. Anyway, while $4 mil is hardly chump change for our Buccos, neither will it break the bank. What it is is Ramon Vasquez money. Regarding Sano, to quote Hunter S. Thompson, at $4 mil I say "buy the ticket, take the ride."

Excellent point, Emoney. As anyone in business knows, it's "who you know" and "how you maintain these relationships" that is your lifeblood. It's not inconceivable that a successful consummation of this deal could pay us dividends for decades to come. I think we owe it to ourselves to make a serious play here. Both for Sano, and for the future.

Well, while TR-SoCal is now scrambling to find some position player number 1 draft picks that were failures, I've got to head out for the day. Everybody, have yourself a great Monday.

It is just about unanimous that the Buccos should sign Sano. I would agree. However, the debate has again been defined given the fact that our ownership group spends a significant amount less than ownership groups in similar "markets" (as Dejan loves to point out). If we sign Sano and keep everything else the same, we are now still spending 15 million less than the Brewers. Sign Sano,and convince Nutting to sell the team, but not necessarily in that order.

daquido_bazzini,

Did the Pirates ever have a legitimate chance at Ohman? My understanding was that he opted to play on the Left Coast. The Pirates will not be able to sign any significant free agents until the culture of losing is stopped. Signing Sano may or may not be a step in that direction, but it seems to be a step that needs to be taken.

Bob is correct that the chances of him succeeding are probably not good. If the talent evaluators were as predictable as they are in the NFL, baseball would likely have only 7-10 rounds in a draft as well. Instead, a guy like Rob Mackowiak can be drafted in the 20th round and still prove to be a legit major league player for a few years. All that being said, if you NEVER take the risks on amateur talent, you end up like Dave Littlefield. You draft players for signability instead of talent, and you don't bother looking in the Dominican or wherever because they're all kids and 7 out of 10 never make the big leagues. If the consensus is that this kid is dynamo, then go for it. We won't know for probably 5 years anyway, and that $4 million will be long gone by then, either spent on this kid or another.

I have to disagree with the piece.

Many of the great ballplayers in the majors from the Dominican were signed at 16.  Miguel Cabrera and Johnny Cueto come to mind instantly, but there are plenty others.

As a few posters have commented, Ramon Vasquez is making the same $4M.  If I have the choice to possibly add an impact player and have Bixler as my backup infielder or keep the immensely talented Vasquez, give me the prospect.  The only way we have to rebuild this team is through amateur talent drafting and signing.

Also, the Pirates' failures in the draft over the past 16 years have nothing to do with this decision.  This is a somewhat revamped scouting organization with a new leader at the top.  And Sano's not a lefty reliever...

I agree with Bob on this one. $4million is far too much to risk on somebody whose brain is not yet fully developed. He's 16!

I disagree.

Who cares if he's 16, 17, or 18 for that matter?

Many great Latin players are signed like this.

Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, Vlad Guererro, and Johan Santana were all first signed as free agents at this age and they seemed to turn out pretty well.

I'm sure I could dig and find more, but the point remains.

As an aside, it's odd to see a bulk fanbase that usually complains about our 'stingy' owner now blast him for attempting to spend this money here and call it wasteful.

I'd rather spend this here than a crud free agent.

(I am sure you could find plenty more Dominicans [Aramis Ramirez] who have had good to outstanding MLB careers. And for every one of those, there are about 10 who have signed professional contracts and gone on to do nothing.  --- Bob Smizik)

I think everyone has it wrong with regard to what Dave Littlefield would do...he would have signed him but for $6.5 million and then he would have turned the kid into a relief pitcher.  

Here you special agent utah

en.wikipedia.org/.../List_of_players_from_Dominican_Republic_in_Major_League

Stu,

Nothing on that link...

Thanks for the try, but like I said, the point remains regardless.

Oh, and also, to attempt to make a point that we can't do this right because of prior talent evaluation mishaps (which overall were atrocious) by the Pirates is way off base since there's a new regime (including GM and scouting director Greg Smith).

Bob,

Thanks for the reply.

But that expands on the larger issue that, since they don't spend on payroll, that they should spend in the draft and development.

We can't criticize the judgment of the new regime the way we did the old one since the jury's still out on their decisions.

Let them scout, draft, and develop. We'll see what happens then, but this is exactly the type of thing they should be looking into.

Special Agent,

Well put. All your posts. And I'll just add that apparently it is not only Pirate organization people who are high on this kid Sano. Dejan couldn't get people from other organizations to go on record, but does tell us that compared with agent Fuller's sky high reviews, "praise for Sano was equally effusive from others in the industry interviewed for this story."

Sure, Sano could flop. Nothing is guaranteed in life, and this is especially so in competitive sports. Still, gotta take the shot. We don't have to take $4 mil shots every time. But this time, I say we reach for the brass ring.

By your argument, the Pirates should always forgo their 1st and perhaps 2nd round draft picks because of the expense.  Also, many of your examples were pitchers.    All seem to agree Sano is a 1st round talent.  If you look at the numbers, 1st round positional players have been much more successful than 1st round pitchers.  Seems that the entire sport misses much more when evaluating pitchers, not just the Pirates, perhaps because they are more likely to have career ending injuries.  

While I too agree that $4 million for a 16 year old sounds crazy, so does the $6+ million given to other players that have not played a single pro game.  We can all list a string of negatives for giving someone that young that kind of money, there are also positives such as being able to get professional coaches to work with him  from an earlier point of development.

Yes, top talents DO  flame out and never make it to the big leagues.  Happens to every team, ... OFTEN!  The counter to that is to increase the number of top talents you bring in.  They aren't going to give us more top draft picks, so we need to go out and bring in kids from the Dominican and elsewhere.

Saturday, 1:00 a.m. There was plenty of outrage concerning my post about James Harrison’s reasons

Bob,

I'm really hoping you were simply trying to stir up the readers.  Otherwise you are far worse at this than we have any reason to expect.

Let's count out the problems with your piece:

1) He's 16.  Most of the high end Latin American prospects sign at 16.  This is the age when the call has to be made.  By the time they're 18 they're in AA by the time they're 21 or 22  they're in the major leagues.  Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Aramis Ramirez, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada Miguel Cabrera were all signed as International Free Agents at 16.  

2) He might not be 16.  Pirates have spent time and money checking into his age.  MLB is doing the exact same thing right now.  

3) A lot of players that NH didn't draft or select didn't work out.  Really?  How is this relevant?

4) A lot of pitchers didn't work out.  Ok, this is true.  Pitchers have a higher likelyhood of getting hurt or not developing.  Only problem is that Sano isn't a pitcher

5) $4 million is too much of a risk.  Compared to what?  The Pirates have a total of 1 potential impact bat in the system.  Here is a chance to get another one, and for 1/3 less than Pedro Alvarez.  Maybe it's just a "guessing game" but any chance is better than none.  

Last year the Pirates spent almost $10 million to sign draftees and International Free Agents.  So far they've spent less than 5, they can sign Sano and one of the high end  high school  pitchers and still stay on budget.